FB: Empire 8

[pumkinattack]

I completely agree with the last couple, but wonder if on paper Linfield is a slam dunk at 9-0 vs Hobart (ON PAPER strictly).  Their first three OOC opponents all look recordwise no better than Hobart's and it's possible that the LL could only have 2 sub .500 teams and there could be three in Linfield's conference below .500.  Both went out in the same round last year and Linfield lost at home to a team that lost to the team Hobart lost to (badly/soundly) on the road. 

Again, this is a criterion/on paper question, but to someone looking in from the outside I could see paper Hobart getting a #1 vs paper Linfield this year if they both went 9-0. 

I also could live with a #3 seed for Hobart at 9-0, but would be bummed to have a have to go on the road in the 2nd round in that scenario. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I completely agree with the last couple, but wonder if on paper Linfield is a slam dunk at 9-0 vs Hobart (ON PAPER strictly).  Their first three OOC opponents all look recordwise no better than Hobart's and it's possible that the LL could only have 2 sub .500 teams and there could be three in Linfield's conference below .500.  Both went out in the same round last year and Linfield lost at home to a team that lost to the team Hobart lost to (badly/soundly) on the road. 

Again, this is a criterion/on paper question, but to someone looking in from the outside I could see paper Hobart getting a #1 vs paper Linfield this year if they both went 9-0. 

Interesting question.  Linfield's SOS took a small hit when Cal Lu lost to Redlands; otherwise they'd have owned an OOC win over another likely conference champion.  They will own an impressive win over Pacific Lutheran better than anything Hobart's going to get from its own conference.  Assuming they win out, Pac Lu will probably be in the regional rankings, while I don't think Hobart is going to get the benefit of a win over a regionally-ranked opponent.  Will be interesting to see.  Lotta football to go between now and then.

[Bombers798891]

It's possible that the LL could only have 2 sub .500 teams and there could be three in Linfield's conference below .500. 

I respect Hobart and think they're legit, but this is completely meaningless. Most of the LL's OOC wins have come against two of the worst conferences in DIII, the NEFC and ECFC. And while it's not Rochester's fault they had to scramble to find a game  and got stuck with Alfred State, that game might as well be an exhibition. What's behind these teams' above .500 record beyond weak scheduling?

[ExTartanPlayer]

It's possible that the LL could only have 2 sub .500 teams and there could be three in Linfield's conference below .500. 

I respect Hobart and think they're legit, but this is completely meaningless. Most of the LL's OOC wins have come against two of the worst conferences in DIII, the NEFC and ECFC. And while it's not Rochester's fault they had to scramble to find a game  and got stuck with Alfred State, that game might as well be an exhibition. What's behind these teams' above .500 record beyond weak scheduling?

I think his point is that it might boost their SOS numbers (which is primarily an "on paper" calculation based strictly on opponents' records and opponents' opponents' records).  The NWC teams don't have the benefit of those games, in fact most only play a 9-game schedule.  He's not saying the LL is actually better than the NWC, but the LL teams' contributions to an undefeated champion's SOS might be greater than the NWC teams' contribution because of this quirk. 

It's funny that these things matter so much, but for one example, Linfield's SOS is getting a boost because down-the-road Linfield opponent Pacific defeated Adrian, and Adrian looks like a threat to win out and take the MIAA.

[Bombers798891]

It's possible that the LL could only have 2 sub .500 teams and there could be three in Linfield's conference below .500. 

I respect Hobart and think they're legit, but this is completely meaningless. Most of the LL's OOC wins have come against two of the worst conferences in DIII, the NEFC and ECFC. And while it's not Rochester's fault they had to scramble to find a game  and got stuck with Alfred State, that game might as well be an exhibition. What's behind these teams' above .500 record beyond weak scheduling?

I think his point is that it might boost their SOS numbers (which is primarily an "on paper" calculation based strictly on opponents' records and opponents' opponents' records).  The NWC teams don't have the benefit of those games, in fact most only play a 9-game schedule.  He's not saying the LL is actually better than the NWC, but the LL teams' contributions to an undefeated champion's SOS might be greater than the NWC teams' contribution because of this quirk. 

It's funny that these things matter so much, but for one example, Linfield's SOS is getting a boost because down-the-road Linfield opponent Pacific defeated Adrian, and Adrian looks like a threat to win out and take the MIAA.

Ah, yes, I see where he's going there. I retract the "meaningless". Yeah, the paper may work out for the 'Bart, though I think they'll still be undervalued in the national scene because of the LL's issues

[pumkinattack]

I tried to be clear that I was interested in seeing how a rules based system would shake out vs a more interpretive/subjective one.  My real theory is that the committee has enough latitude not only with seeding but also with pool C bids that they can take a strict interpretation of the primary criteria or a much more broad view by increasing the value/weight of the qualitative and secondary/tertiary that they ultimately make the decision they want to and justify it either way. 

Far too many people will hid behind rules when convenient instead of just acknowledging they made a judgement call (which I'd generally be more fine with someone saying "I was given this responsibility and made this decision, so be it" rather than "well if you read the rules it states X, so my hands were tied").  Just thinking ahead as an experiment to see how they might evaluate this. 

But, the LL is weak and has been weak since around 2007 or 2008, IMO.  There are league defenders that will argue otherwise and everyone uses the "we beat each other up" but that tends to be specious because by definition half the teams in a league should have below .500 records and it just depends on how the OOC shakes out. 

The real tragedy is I think that MMA is the best team we've played to date and perhaps the best team on Hobart's reg season schedule and in the top 35-40 in the country but won't get to show it thanks to our respected national leaders (both sides, no one's hands are clean here). 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I tried to be clear that I was interested in seeing how a rules based system would shake out vs a more interpretive/subjective one.  My real theory is that the committee has enough latitude not only with seeding but also with pool C bids that they can take a strict interpretation of the primary criteria or a much more broad view by increasing the value/weight of the qualitative and secondary/tertiary that they ultimately make the decision they want to and justify it either way. 

One point that I've made before re: the playoffs (since the committee has a tough job and does the best they can in choosing Pool C teams and seeding) iis that everyone with access to a Pool A bid truly "has a chance" to win the national title when the season begins.  We can quibble about whether you got screwed by seeding and that knocked you out in the first or second round as opposed to the quarterfinals or semifinals, but ultimately if you're the best team in the country, and you win all your games, you'll be the one standing when the season ends.  Yes, Pool C is there to let a few truly outstanding teams in from particularly tough conferences or who lost a close shave to their conference champ, but the way I see it no one should really be crying when the playoff brackets are announced.

If Hobart wins'em all in the regular season, they are going to get a high seed and a few home games no matter what.  Maybe it'll only be 2 home games instead of 3, but if the final destination is a date with Mount Union or whomever in the quarterfinals, so be it!

[Bengalsrule]

Wow. Just returned from my annual Vegas vacation and my BENGALS are now 2-4!   Looks like we will have to run the table to finish .500. Not sure what happened this past Saturday but at least it didnt come down to the last minute.

Back home next week to face Frostburg.

Go BENGALS!!!

[Bombers798891]

Wow. Just returned from my annual Vegas vacation and my BENGALS are now 2-4!   Looks like we will have to run the table to finish .500. Not sure what happened this past Saturday but at least it didnt come down to the last minute.

Back home next week to face Frostburg.

Go BENGALS!!!

The Bengals are probably the most disappointing team in the E8 so far this year. I know they've had some tough losses, but they didn't exactly dominate in their wins either. Major defensive issues and a hit or miss offense.   

[D3MAFAN]

Wow. Just returned from my annual Vegas vacation and my BENGALS are now 2-4!   Looks like we will have to run the table to finish .500. Not sure what happened this past Saturday but at least it didnt come down to the last minute.

Back home next week to face Frostburg.

Go BENGALS!!!

The Bengals are probably the most disappointing team in the E8 so far this year. I know they've had some tough losses, but they didn't exactly dominate in their wins either. Major defensive issues and a hit or miss offense.

I watched the game last week and was not upset with the outcome, but the way the game went, it appeared that Buffalo State was somewhat overmatched by Salisbury Defense. Also, Salisbury could have easily put two or three more touchdowns against Buffalo State. I guess I was expecting the Buff St. offense to sling a couple touchdowns here and there, but Buff State looked sub-par last weekend.

Looking forward to a good contest between SJF and Salisbury this upcoming weekend. I want SJF to win to protect the region, but SJF has yet to beat Salisbury and I looked at the website and it is family weekend for Salisbury, so I am a little indifferent on how the game may turn out.

[Upstate]

Wow. Just returned from my annual Vegas vacation and my BENGALS are now 2-4!   Looks like we will have to run the table to finish .500. Not sure what happened this past Saturday but at least it didnt come down to the last minute.

Back home next week to face Frostburg.

Go BENGALS!!!

The Bengals are probably the most disappointing team in the E8 so far this year. I know they've had some tough losses, but they didn't exactly dominate in their wins either. Major defensive issues and a hit or miss offense.

I watched the game last week and was not upset with the outcome, but the way the game went, it appeared that Buffalo State was somewhat overmatched by Salisbury Defense. Also, Salisbury could have easily put two or three more touchdowns against Buffalo State. I guess I was expecting the Buff St. offense to sling a couple touchdowns here and there, but Buff State looked sub-par last weekend.

Looking forward to a good contest between SJF and Salisbury this upcoming weekend. I want SJF to win to protect the region, but SJF has yet to beat Salisbury and I looked at the website and it is family weekend for Salisbury, so I am a little indifferent on how the game may turn out.

The closest SJF has come to beating SU is the epic 58-50 4 OT game back in 2008. That game ended when Bailey was sacked on 4th down after a lineman completely whiffed on their stud DE/OLB. Was ironic to see the game decided on a defensive play when neither team could stop one another the entire game...

I think we will see a close game but until Fisher actually beats SU I've got to give the nod to SU...

31-28 Salisbury...

[Bombers798891]

Wow. Just returned from my annual Vegas vacation and my BENGALS are now 2-4!   Looks like we will have to run the table to finish .500. Not sure what happened this past Saturday but at least it didnt come down to the last minute.

Back home next week to face Frostburg.

Go BENGALS!!!

The Bengals are probably the most disappointing team in the E8 so far this year. I know they've had some tough losses, but they didn't exactly dominate in their wins either. Major defensive issues and a hit or miss offense.

I watched the game last week and was not upset with the outcome, but the way the game went, it appeared that Buffalo State was somewhat overmatched by Salisbury Defense. Also, Salisbury could have easily put two or three more touchdowns against Buffalo State. I guess I was expecting the Buff St. offense to sling a couple touchdowns here and there, but Buff State looked sub-par last weekend.

Looking forward to a good contest between SJF and Salisbury this upcoming weekend. I want SJF to win to protect the region, but SJF has yet to beat Salisbury and I looked at the website and it is family weekend for Salisbury, so I am a little indifferent on how the game may turn out.

I wonder if Kacz is banged up. He looked hurt during the IC game, and he hasn't run at all these last four weeks after running for nearly 200 yards in the first two games. But Buff State didn't do much against the Gulls on offense last season, so it might just be a matchup issue

[drt]

SU is very, very fast on defense. Fisher needs to be hitting on all cylinders Saterday.

[sjfcards]

SU is very, very fast on defense. Fisher needs to be hitting on all cylinders Saterday.

Totally agree. To me the game comes down to the Fisher offense vs. SU defense. My gut tells me the Fisher defense will do enough to keep them in the game, so the question is if Fisher can score against the SU D, to force Salisbury into situations they are not comfortable in. A few early touchdowns will put pressure on Salisbury to pass the ball to stay in the game.

It seems to me Fisher has struggled to build leads against teams until later in the game, so they may have to flip that script to come away with a win this weekend.

I think it is clearly the game of the week in conference, so hopefully it is a good one.

[boobyhasgameyo]

Excluding Wesley as a top 10 caliber team and an outlier from the rest of the schedule - Salisbury's defense has yielded an average of 8.25 points per game this season.  Is Fisher's offense as potent as Wesley's?  We'll find out in two days.  From what I've seen Fisher has had moments of brilliance on offense but greatly struggles at times.  Especially when they decide they want to do a lot of lateral running out of the shotgun instead of running downhill where in my opinion they are much more effective.  They had one complete effort to date this year and that was against Washington & Jefferson.  They were a well oiled machine that day. 

Defensively I think Fisher could really stand to benefit against a team like Salisbury.  To me it seems like Fisher is solid against the run but struggles at times in the secondary.  They are big up front and the linemen/linebacking core are sure tacklers.  I believe they will be up for the challenge of stopping the option attack.  Of course I say this but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Salisbury hangs 40+.  They've done that in the past.  I'll be optimistic however. 

I don't know which Fisher offense we will see this weekend.  I really hope they play a clean game and up to their full potential.  If they do then I could see Fisher winning this game, perhaps even comfortably.  But for my official prediction I will go with offensive struggles for Fisher, and a fair defensive effort but not their best to date, leading to a tight game that Salisbury eeks out for the win.

Salisbury - 24
Fisher - 14  (complete with an interception inside the Salisbury 20 and a trademark Fenti fumble inside the Salisbury 10 preventing Fisher from coming away with crucial points...hey it has happened before this year)