FB: Empire 8

[ExTartanPlayer]

It was always amazing to see the number of guys come, only to see maybe half of those guys stay by game one and then less than a quarter stay until their senior year.

I think 50-75% attrition (over four years) amongst Division III football players is fairly normal, but are you serious that half of the incoming freshmen quit by the end of their first camp?  That seems exceptionally high.

I think the typical life-cycle of a recruiting class' career is more like this:

1) Maybe 3-5 kids quit by the end of their first camp; these are usually kids that were on the fence about even playing in college, and when they saw how many other guys there were and/or that they were going to be deep on the bench for awhile, they decided it wasn't really for them.  This also might include 1-2 kids that showed up with a pre-existing injury (a shoulder that needs surgery, for example) who realize shortly after they arrive that they don't care to get surgery, rehab all season, then "start" their career after a full year's wait.

2) Another 3-5 might quit sometime during the season, after school starts, when they realize they'd rather be drinking and partying and (maybe) studying than getting their brains beaten in on the scout team.

3) Anecdotally, I think that the biggest attrition comes between freshmen & sophomore season.  After a full season on the team, everyone knows what the season is like, most kids can read the writing on the wall about whether they'll play meaningful time the next season or not, and kids have also had enough time on campus to figure out what else they might want out of college: academics, social life, etc.  A lot of borderline kids might quit between end of freshman season and start of sophomore-year camp.

4) Another (probably slightly smaller) handful will quit after sophomore/before junior year when it's now apparent that they're unlikely to see the field much for the duration of their career.  I kind of understand this; it can be tough to come back for your junior season if you're not going to be on the travel squad or the two-deep.

5) Probably 25-50% of the class that showed up as freshmen will report for camp as seniors.  Most likely, none of these kids will quit during the season (maybe a bad apple who loses his starting job to an underclassman and decides he doesn't care to play anymore if he's not starting).  By and large, the kids that make it to start of their senior season will see it through, and a handful will turn into nice success stories like becoming a key contributor as a senior after riding the bench for their whole career.

I did think our coaches were very good about mixing the need to get some underclassmen onto the travel squad and on the field while still carving out small niches for seniors that stuck with the program (our senior classes were small enough to do this).  With about 15-25 seniors per year, most that were still around were starting, but the handful of seniors that did not start were usually placed on at least one special-teams unit, so they'd be getting onto the field in every game and traveling with the team.

This is a generalization and certainly not true of every Division III program, but I think that's the more typical life cycle of a single recruiting class.  I'm really surprised to hear that half the incoming freshmen quit before game one anywhere.

[D3MAFAN]

It was always amazing to see the number of guys come, only to see maybe half of those guys stay by game one and then less than a quarter stay until their senior year.

I think 50-75% attrition (over four years) amongst Division III football players is fairly normal, but are you serious that half of the incoming freshmen quit by the end of their first camp?  That seems exceptionally high.

I think the typical life-cycle of a recruiting class' career is more like this:

1) Maybe 3-5 kids quit by the end of their first camp; these are usually kids that were on the fence about even playing in college, and when they saw how many other guys there were and/or that they were going to be deep on the bench for awhile, they decided it wasn't really for them.  This also might include 1-2 kids that showed up with a pre-existing injury (a shoulder that needs surgery, for example) who realize shortly after they arrive that they don't care to get surgery, rehab all season, then "start" their career after a full year's wait.

2) Another 3-5 might quit sometime during the season, after school starts, when they realize they'd rather be drinking and partying and (maybe) studying than getting their brains beaten in on the scout team.

3) Anecdotally, I think that the biggest attrition comes between freshmen & sophomore season.  After a full season on the team, everyone knows what the season is like, most kids can read the writing on the wall about whether they'll play meaningful time the next season or not, and kids have also had enough time on campus to figure out what else they might want out of college: academics, social life, etc.  A lot of borderline kids might quit between end of freshman season and start of sophomore-year camp.

4) Another (probably slightly smaller) handful will quit after sophomore/before junior year when it's now apparent that they're unlikely to see the field much for the duration of their career.  I kind of understand this; it can be tough to come back for your junior season if you're not going to be on the travel squad or the two-deep.

5) Probably 25-50% of the class that showed up as freshmen will report for camp as seniors.  Most likely, none of these kids will quit during the season (maybe a bad apple who loses his starting job to an underclassman and decides he doesn't care to play anymore if he's not starting).  By and large, the kids that make it to start of their senior season will see it through, and a handful will turn into nice success stories like becoming a key contributor as a senior after riding the bench for their whole career.

I did think our coaches were very good about mixing the need to get some underclassmen onto the travel squad and on the field while still carving out small niches for seniors that stuck with the program (our senior classes were small enough to do this).  With about 15-25 seniors per year, most that were still around were starting, but the handful of seniors that did not start were usually placed on at least one special-teams unit, so they'd be getting onto the field in every game and traveling with the team.

This is a generalization and certainly not true of every Division III program, but I think that's the more typical life cycle of a single recruiting class.  I'm really surprised to hear that half the incoming freshmen quit before game one anywhere.

I think we both got to the same conclusion as far as incoming freshmen remaining until their senior year. As far as guys leaving and/or getting invited back for spring ball. I would say it always appeared to be around 50% our of maybe 70 to 100 guys reporting, nothing conclusive, just that it is how it always felt.

[fisheralum91]

Any word from Fisher camp?
High hopes this year!
Thoughts card nation?

[wesleydad]

E8 guys, it is football time!   Good luck this year.  Looking forward to reading your posts as to how the teams are doing.  I will be seeing Salisbury vs. Wesley in week 2 so I will let you know what I see after that.  I will check their schedule to see if I am going to catch an E8 game during the season.

[fisheralum91]

good to see you on wesleydad! 
a good idea of what SU brings to the table is always good- hopefully this is the year Fisher gets off the snide and beats em!

[Bombers798891]

I highly doubt Alfred's losing half of their Freshman by the end of camp, but Pep may know. As for their attrition, I can't match up names, but:

The 2012 roster lists 74 Freshmen, and the 2013 roster lists 31 Sophomores

That's down nearly 58 percent.

I always felt Alfred brought in a ton of Freshmen compared to other schools, but I don't know if that's true

[AUPepBand]

I highly doubt Alfred's losing half of their Freshman by the end of camp, but Pep may know. As for their attrition, I can't match up names, but:

The 2012 roster lists 74 Freshmen, and the 2013 roster lists 31 Sophomores

That's down nearly 58 percent.

I always felt Alfred brought in a ton of Freshmen compared to other schools, but I don't know if that's true

Pep has always suggested that Coach Dave Murray had a dual position of Football Coach and Assistant Director of Admissions only because of his ability to bring in big numbers of recruits. Murray once told Pep that his optimum number of recruits was 45 each year. But the administration gave him the go-ahead to bring in as many as he could and he's probably averaged--guessing here--around 100 each of the past 8 to 10 seasons(?) Rankl will likely maintain that trend.

A junior varsity schedule keeps most around for at least a season. But as has been stated by others, priorities change once they are on campus and it takes a special kid to balance the rigors of academia with the time commitment associated with a varsity sport, especially football. Nevertheless, Pep believes the 2013 squad had around 25 seniors, more than he remembers in recent years. And that was probably one of those huge freshman classes that came in.

Fickle first-years....they just don't know what they want to do... 

On Saxon Warriors!

[AUPepBand]

good to see you on wesleydad! 
a good idea of what SU brings to the table is always good- hopefully this is the year Fisher gets off the snide and beats em!

Pep believes SU has always brought the same dish-to-pass to the table...Salisbury Steak, which leaves you with the runs. 

[fisheralum91]

As long as they run out of Growney with a loss this year I dont care!

[ITH radio]

Saw a tweet that the Saxons have opened camp. I know UofR and WPI opened theirs too. Imagine most others will start by Sunday.

[D3viewer]

Brockport's official preview released today.

http://www.gobrockport.com/news/2014/8/13/FB_0813140341.aspx

[D3MAFAN]

good to see you on wesleydad! 
a good idea of what SU brings to the table is always good- hopefully this is the year Fisher gets off the snide and beats em!

Pep believes SU has always brought the same dish-to-pass to the table...Salisbury Steak, which leaves you with the runs. 

That it hilarious, I found a video with a caption for the seagulls related to their offense, saying "Forest Gump meets a flock of Seagulls"...hilarious. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA1_aw2wAYI

[sjfcards]

good to see you on wesleydad! 
a good idea of what SU brings to the table is always good- hopefully this is the year Fisher gets off the snide and beats em!

Pep believes SU has always brought the same dish-to-pass to the table...Salisbury Steak, which leaves you with the runs. 

Posts like this are why I joined the boards! Hilarious...

[dlippiel]

Brockport's official preview released today.

http://www.gobrockport.com/news/2014/8/13/FB_0813140341.aspx

Thanks for posting D3viewer. dlip loves reading this stuff! He can't wait for the season to begin!!!!! +k

[ExTartanPlayer]

Murray once told Pep that his optimum number of recruits was 45 each year. But the administration gave him the go-ahead to bring in as many as he could and he's probably averaged--guessing here--around 100 each of the past 8 to 10 seasons(?) Rankl will likely maintain that trend.

A junior varsity schedule keeps most around for at least a season. But as has been stated by others, priorities change once they are on campus and it takes a special kid to balance the rigors of academia with the time commitment associated with a varsity sport, especially football. Nevertheless, Pep believes the 2013 squad had around 25 seniors, more than he remembers in recent years. And that was probably one of those huge freshman classes that came in.

Fickle first-years....they just don't know what they want to do... 

Interesting thoughts, all.

I agree that about 45-50 is probably the optimal number of incoming recruits for most programs.  I think more than that puts you beyond the point of diminishing returns: it's hard to coach them all, hard to properly evaluate them all, and you might lose a handful of good kids that you just don't see more than once or twice in drills who get discouraged.

Oddly enough, it's not surprising to me that schools who bring in more recruits would have a higher attrition rate (with a few exceptions, obviously) because I think most D3 schools will end up with 15-25 seniors per year, whether they started with 40 freshmen or 100 freshmen, because that's about how many seniors will realistically be playing meaningful time (and I can only think of a handful of seniors during my tenure that were truly buried on the depth chart; any kid that hadn't advanced to second-string or some special teams by their senior year would have quit).