FB: Empire 8

[fisheralum91]

Those in conference losses seem to bite Fisher during the season, yet they perform very well in the playoffs.
Lets hope that this is the year that Fisher gets out of the E8 unscathed!

[dlippiel]

dlip likes this conversation . He too would put SJF into that third tier, which he thinks is awesome! He also agrees that the Cardinals have the potential to defeat a second tier team but looking at their body of work as a whole since 2006, dlip thinks the third tier is right where they belong. How dlip would love to see SJF rise up into that second tier, but like jknezek said, he views the tiers as more of a body of work type system than a year to year system. Let's hope SJF gets through the season undefeated and takes that momentum right into the playoffs!

[Bombers798891]

Interesting. I don't tend to think of the tier system as year to year. Teams in the first, second, third tier have gotten there based on sustained success with a few outliers (unless you are UMU. Then there are no outliers which is statistically fascinating). But Fisher doesn't have just outliers. They have a consistent pattern which isn't indicative of a second tier school. In some up years there are teams that can probably compete with the second tier, but it's just not consistent enough to actually join that tier in my mind.

Whether the team this year is one that can compete at that level we will see, and that would maybe give SJF two in a row, but the problem is the regular season losses. Those tier two teams just don't rack up two regular season losses per year. Occasionally? Sure. Regularly? No. For example NCC has two conference losses since 2008. Wesley gets less than two a season on average, but several have come to UMHB skewing the statistics. Linfield hasn't lost an NWC game since 2008 and only lost one non-playoff game in that time frame. Those tier two teams just don't look like SJF during the year. And yes, the ASC, NWC and Wesley's schedule are generally comparable to the E8ish.

Losses in last three seasons. Rankings based on the end of the regular season:

UMHB: #7 Wesley, #5 Whitewater, #1 Mount Union

Fisher: unranked Hobart, #10 Salisbury, #3 St. Thomas, unranked Salisbury, unranked Alfred, unranked Buffalo State, #24 Ithaca, unranked Salisbury, #3 UMHB

In MHB's case, you have three teams in the Top 7, one national semifinalist and two eventual undefeated national champions.

In Fisher's case, you have five unranked teams, and four teams that didn't even qualify for the playoffs. I'm on record as saying I think the Cardinals could go 10-0 and get a #1 seed this year, so don't take this the wrong way, but it seems pretty obvious to me that UMHB and Fisher aren't in the same tier right now. Their historical results simply don't align, and we've only got two games worth of 2014 data for Fisher.

Could this year be different? Of course. But to me, UMHB has earned the benefit of the doubt, whereas Fisher hasn't

[fisheralum91]

Totally understood.
That tier is established.

Im just hoping that Fisher is the team that keeps UMU out of the East region this year!

[Bombers798891]

My E8 rankings after two weeks:

1. St. John Fisher— I'm not entirely sure how Fisher only completed three passes last week, but when you can run like they did, who needs to?
2. Ithaca— The team's most impressive win since 2009 is enough to hold onto the second spot, but they've yet to face a real test
3. Alfred— Big game coming against IC. Tyler Johnson looks legit, although with four turnovers in the past two weeks, he's got areas to improve
4. Utica— An ugly win, though see below for a possible explanation. Still some questions, but I can't think of anyone better to occupy this spot.
5. Salisbury— Until we know more about the Gulls, that no-show against Wesley has to carry a lot of weight.
6. Frostburg— We've expressed disbelief at Utica's passing numbers last week, but is it possible the Bobcats' D is legit? Geneva put up 19 against Frostburg, (including a punt return TD) and 42 and 38 in the other two weeks. Shenandoah went from 10 against Frostburg to 45 the next week, and Utica lights up lousy teams on principle.
7. Brockport— Their inexplicable win over Cortland was more earned than Buff State's
8. Buffalo State— Is Buff State the new Utica? Because Kyle Hoppy's offense just cratered upon the start of the E8 schedule
9. Team Boltus— We already knew that the defense was lousy, but after seeing that offense in person, I've got no hope that they win more than one game in the E8. Any team with a decent defense will have no trouble.

[fisheralum91]

Bombers- Im hitting the UC 'Port game SatErday.
Ill get a better feel then - but until I see differently- UC is on the way down - not up.
The offense just sputtered...and one would think that they would find a way to get Acevedo the ball
That said- The Frostburg D looked "ok"

[Bombers798891]

Totally understood.
That tier is established.

Im just hoping that Fisher is the team that keeps UMU out of the East region this year!

Yeah, me too. I think it certainly helps that they had close, ugly wins in the quarters and semis and got whipped in the Stagg Bowl, because it makes them a little less obvious as a #1 seed heading into the season. But they've had some impressive early season results.

Fisher picked a lousy year to play Alfred State. But maybe Otterbein can make it respectable against Mount, which would help a lot.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Interesting. I don't tend to think of the tier system as year to year. Teams in the first, second, third tier have gotten there based on sustained success with a few outliers (unless you are UMU. Then there are no outliers which is statistically fascinating). But Fisher doesn't have just outliers. They have a consistent pattern which isn't indicative of a second tier school. In some up years there are teams that can probably compete with the second tier, but it's just not consistent enough to actually join that tier in my mind.

Whether the team this year is one that can compete at that level we will see, and that would maybe give SJF two in a row, but the problem is the regular season losses. Those tier two teams just don't rack up two regular season losses per year. Occasionally? Sure. Regularly? No. For example NCC has two conference losses since 2008. Wesley gets less than two a season on average, but several have come to UMHB skewing the statistics. Linfield hasn't lost an NWC game since 2008 and only lost one non-playoff game in that time frame. Those tier two teams just don't look like SJF during the year. And yes, the ASC, NWC and Wesley's schedule are generally comparable to the E8ish.

Losses in last three seasons. Rankings based on the end of the regular season:

UMHB: #7 Wesley, #5 Whitewater, #1 Mount Union

Fisher: unranked Hobart, #10 Salisbury, #3 St. Thomas, unranked Salisbury, unranked Alfred, unranked Buffalo State, #24 Ithaca, unranked Salisbury, #3 UMHB

In MHB's case, you have three teams in the Top 7, one national semifinalist and two eventual undefeated national champions.

In Fisher's case, you have five unranked teams, and four teams that didn't even qualify for the playoffs. I'm on record as saying I think the Cardinals could go 10-0 and get a #1 seed this year, so don't take this the wrong way, but it seems pretty obvious to me that UMHB and Fisher aren't in the same tier right now. Their historical results simply don't align, and we've only got two games worth of 2014 data for Fisher.

Could this year be different? Of course. But to me, UMHB has earned the benefit of the doubt, whereas Fisher hasn't

Good info.  +K.

Just to clarify, the original post in this conversation wasn't putting UMHB and SJF in the same tier (a couple others have mentioned that since, so I know why you brought it up this way).  Mr. Ypsi originally postulated the following tiers:

Tier 1: UMU, UWW, UMHB*

UMU and UWW require no explanation. 

UMHB is interesting because they haven't actually beaten either of UWW or UMU recently (since 2004, anyway) and you could argue they should be a notch below...but given that their past 2 semifinal games have been 1) led UMU in the fourth quarter in 2012 and 2) lost by a point to UWW in 2013 (when that UWW team annihilated Mount in the Stagg), I'm comfortable putting them here, especially once we start looking at the Tier 2 candidates.  You'll see their name pop up on some fun lists.

Tier 2: Linfield, Wesley, NCC

Linfield has been eliminated by a host of different postseason opponents (I was a little surprised to see how many different teams have knocked them out of the playoffs; it's not always one of those Tier 1 teams).  If they were only losing to UWW and UMHB, that'd be a little different.  But St. Thomas, Wesley, and UW-Oshkosh have all eliminated Linfield in recent playoff seasons...and yet, Linfield is one of only four teams to make the final eight in both 2012 and 2013 (Mount, UMHB, and Wesley being the others).  Gotta be here.

Wesley has had a very high ceiling but also seems to have a low floor; they're capable of raising their game to give Mount or UMHB a scare, but they can lose to Rowan (2013) or Kean (2011) in years when neither of those teams ran the table in the NJAC (which raises an interesting point of its own: is Wesley going to miss the playoffs once in a while in the NJAC?).  But if I try to talk myself out of them...extending the point above about Linfield: here's the list of teams that have been in the final eight for each of the last four seasons: Mount Union, UMHB, and Wesley.  Gotta be here.

NCC, like Wesley, has dropped a regular-season game here and there (UW-LaCrosse to open 2012 season, Redlands to open 2011 regular season) but still was in the semifinals last year (losing by a point vs. Mount) and has been in the elite eight twice in the last four years.

The other teams who might have an argument about their exclusion from this tier:

St. Thomas almost definitely should be, but some recency bias (UST going 8-2 last year with a two-point loss to St. John's costing them a potential Pool C berth) has made us forget that UST was in the Stagg in 2012, semifinals in 2011, final 8 in 2010, final 8 in 2009.  Probably a mistake to omit them from the original list when you look at that four year stretch of postseason that no one save Mount, UWW, and UMHB can really match.

Bethel (also on that very short list of teams that have made the elite eight twice in the last four years) beat UST last year and is a program with plenty of postseason history to its credit.

St. John Fisher also has two final-8 appearances in the last four years...but both came in seasons where they lost two regular-season games, and they missed the playoffs in the other two seasons.  Linfield, Wesley, and NCC all have made each of the last four years, and UST's miss last year is countered by their superior body of work from 2009-2012 (which is better than anything the rest of Tier 2 offers, really).  It can be argued that the Empire 8's difficulty is a factor here that some of the other Tier 1 and Tier 2 teams do not have to contend with, but I think UMU and UWW are so superior that doesn't really matter because they'd still win the E8. 

I happen to agree with jknezek that I group the teams into tiers based on multiple seasons' worth of work, not just where they are in one season (i.e. I think St. Thomas belongs in this discussion of the top ten or so "programs" in the nation even if they weren't one of the 10 best teams last year, same with UWW in 2012, etc).  If you look at other teams floating around the 6-15 spots of the current poll, none can really be argued as belonging in "Tier 2" because they haven't been at that level long enough or consistently enough.   UW-Platteville's playoff win last year was their first in this site's timeline.  Wartburg's playoff win last year was their first since 2008.

To recap:

Tier 1: UMU, UWW, UMHB*
Tier 2: Linfield, Wesley, NCC, St. Thomas
Tier 3: Bethel, St. John Fisher, Hobart...a few others, no doubt, not listing them all here because it's hard to say exactly where we draw the line (you can make a case for teams like Wabash, Wheaton, and several others, and then of course UWP, Wartburg, and a few other teams "on the rise" could nose their way into this discussion with 1-2 more good years)

[fisheralum91]

I simply love the fact that we are having this conversation!

That said- lets root for an undefeated Fisher and see how the cards are dealt!

[sjfcards]

Not so fast Yip.
I think the Fisher NCC battle would be a great one!

Agreed.  I didn't mean NCC would 'kill' them, just that I think NCC would probably win the game.

How dare you?

I'm a CCIW guy.  I have tremendous respect for SJF, but I think NCC is a step up.

As I see it, it is UWW, UMU, and UMHB on top, then NCC, Linfield, and Wesley, then a pack of about 5-6 teams (including SJF) in the next tier.  The next 20-30 teams are take your pick.  You?

I don't see any room for argument against how you laid it out. NCC is more consistent and has put together a better total body of work than Fisher, which would create some separation between them and SJFC. The top Fisher teams (2006, 2013, this year?) could potentially beat a team like NCC, but the lower end Fisher teams would most likely get blown out.

The only change I would make is that UMU and UWW are 1A, and a team like UMHB is 1B. I think UMHB has all of the talent that UMU and UWW has, but those teams are ALWAYS in the finals (usually against each other). If UMHB makes a few more finals, I would eliminate the distinction between the two. Don't get me wrong, this is splitting hairs, I think UMHB is part of that top tier discussion for sure.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I don't see any room for argument against how you laid it out. NCC is more consistent and has put together a better total body of work than Fisher, which would create some separation between them and SJFC. The top Fisher teams (2006, 2013, this year?) could potentially beat a team like NCC, but the lower end Fisher teams would most likely get blown out.

Right - individual teams can certainly be beaten by someone from a tier or two down, the year-over-year consistency is the defining factor.  Linfield is a good example of this - they've been eliminated from the playoffs by a couple of different teams over the years, but none of those teams has been as consistently good as Linfield - and Wesley is the same, as they've slipped in a regular season game here and there but they are ALWAYS there come playoff time; I was impressed to see that they're one of only three teams to make the final eight the last four seasons running.  Even UWW had the down season in 2012.

No doubt that the best SJF teams could occasionally beat NCC, Linfield, Wesley, but those schools have a better year-in, year-out track record and get to stay a tier higher.  For now, anyway!

The only change I would make is that UMU and UWW are 1A, and a team like UMHB is 1B. I think UMHB has all of the talent that UMU and UWW has, but those teams are ALWAYS in the finals (usually against each other). If UMHB makes a few more finals, I would eliminate the distinction between the two. Don't get me wrong, this is splitting hairs, I think UMHB is part of that top tier discussion for sure.

You're right, UMHB probably belongs on its own mini-tier just behind UMU and UWW.  I put them on Tier 1 with UMU and UWW because their resume is so clearly superior to those in the next group down (this also gets at your point above with SJF and NCC - in a given year, Linfield and Wesley can compete with UMHB as there have been several classic matchups involving those schools, but over the last several years, UMHB has been more consistent), but I can't really disagree with you that UMHB probably has to win a Stagg, or make a couple of them, to put themselves squarely on the Mount/UWW tier.  They've come achingly close to slaying Mount and UWW the last two years (to their credit, Wesley has, too).  Perhaps this will be the year.

[AUPepBand]

A few good E8 matchups this week with Buffalo State (2-1) hosting Salisbury State (1-1)....Having been at Coyer Saterday, Pep is curious as to how the Seagulls fare there.
Fear the R O A R !! Seagulls migrating 478 miles to the north...time will tell whether they fly in a "V" formation.

And then there's Alfred (3-0) and Ithaca (2-0). Bob Rankl's boys battle the Bombers, their toughest test to date. They've been hanging on the past two weeks...will they rise to the challenge of the defending E8 champ?

Fisher (2-0) at Frostburg State (2-1) should be a blowout for the Cardinals unless the six-hour bus ride causes stiffness in their wings. Bobcats are a better team than in 2013 when they gave Fisher all it could handle in a 38-35 loss.

Brockport State (2-1) at Utica (3-0) may need introductions....have they ever met before? Golden Eagles had a rude awakening in the Courage Bowl, dropping a 36-20 game in their conference debut against the E9's Top Banana. The Eagle-Pioneer game may give some indication where the Green & Gold fit in the E9 mix.

The Hartwick Hawks nest down this weekend.

On Saxon Warriors!

[sjfcards]

A few good E8 matchups this week with Buffalo State (2-1) hosting Salisbury State (1-1)....Having been at Coyer Saterday, Pep is curious as to how the Seagulls fare there.
Fear the R O A R !! Seagulls migrating 478 miles to the north...time will tell whether they fly in a "V" formation.

And then there's Alfred (3-0) and Ithaca (2-0). Bob Rankl's boys battle the Bombers, their toughest test to date. They've been hanging on the past two weeks...will they rise to the challenge of the defending E8 champ?

Fisher (2-0) at Frostburg State (2-1) should be a blowout for the Cardinals unless the six-hour bus ride causes stiffness in their wings. Bobcats are a better team than in 2013 when they gave Fisher all it could handle in a 38-35 loss.

Brockport State (2-1) at Utica (3-0) may need introductions....have they ever met before? Golden Eagles had a rude awakening in the Courage Bowl, dropping a 36-20 game in their conference debut against the E9's Top Banana. The Eagle-Pioneer game may give some indication where the Green & Gold fit in the E9 mix.

The Hartwick Hawks nest down this weekend.

On Saxon Warriors!

Hopefully Fisher remembers that game well, and will not get caught in one of those trap games.

I will take:
Salisbury over the Bengals in a very tight game.
IC over AU by 10.
Fisher over Frostburg by 14
Brockport over UC by 14.

[Bombers798891]

Fisher (2-0) at Frostburg State (2-1) should be a blowout for the Cardinals unless the six-hour bus ride causes stiffness in their wings. Bobcats are a better team than in 2013 when they gave Fisher all it could handle in a 38-35 loss.

Unfortunately for them, so is Fisher

[wally_wabash]

I'm not sure North Central belongs on the same list as Linfield and Wesley.  Because they almost beat Mount Union that one time when Mount Union flatly refused to play any defense for the last three weeks of the tournament?  Nah.  Maybe if they were repeatedly getting knocked out by either Mount Union and Whitewater, but that's not the case- even though it seems like most people give them that kind of benefit of the doubt.  IMO, North Central is closer to the strata occupied by SJF than they are the strata occupied by Linfield and Wesley. 

Totally understood.
That tier is established.

Im just hoping that Fisher is the team that keeps UMU out of the East region this year!

It doesn't really work that way anymore.  If you look at the quadrant breakdown by region in the last three tournaments (Mount Union's quadrant is denoted by asterisk):
2013:
*Quad1-  3E, 2N, 3S
Quad2- 4N, 4W
Quad3- 1N, 3S, 4W
Quad4- 5E, 1N, 1S, 1W

2012:
Quad1-  2N, 6W
Quad2- 1E, 3N, 1S, 3W
Quad3- 3E, 2N, 3S
*Quad4- 4E, 1N, 3S

2011:
Quad1-  3E, 2N, 2S, 1W
Quad2- 3E, 1N, 1S, 3W
Quad3- 1E, 4S, 3W
*Quad4- 4N, 2S, 2W

So you can see that the regions don't really line up as geographically neat as they used to.  The committee has done a good job in the last few years of of mixing and matching pods to get reasonably balanced quadrants.  The idea that  Mount Union gets "shipped" into a region loaded with East teams is dated.