FB: Empire 8

[Bombers798891]

UC is the enigma.
The test will be IC....
For the sake of the polling and rankings....please lord let IC beat UC!

Sorry Blaise.....
well....not really

Here's what I wonder about IC: Are the voters just waiting for an excuse to drop the Bombers? Look, I think IC is good, but even I've got some doubts that the team is this good. It is worth noting that the TT has predicted the Bombers to play in a "surprisingly close" game to a team that had gone 1-12 in OOC games over the past four seasons, be the Top 25 team "most likely to be upset" in a game they eventually led 42-0, and be TMSTBU again last week.

Individually, I get the Union (always plays IC tough) and Alfred (Good team, on road, Ithaca's dreadful there) sentiments, but collectively all three of these picks, by people who follow things closely, says—to me at least—like the Bombers are a tough team to get behind, at least at a Top 15-20 level.

Now, Keith, Pat, and Ryan aren't saying that—it's just my interpretation—and the rest of the people in charge of these things may not agree, but I really wonder if IC is set to crater upon their first loss, sort of a "Yeah, we always thought the Bombers were doing it with smoke and mirrors," reaction. I mean, even last year, in one of the toughest conferences in D-III, a 7-1/8-2 Ithaca was barely in the Top 25, and they dropped seven spots between 2013 and 2014 polls.

That's all justified, mind you. I'm not complaining about it. I'm just trying to figure out what it all means.  If someone beats Fisher to the punch, I don't know if the Ithaca win would be a needle-mover for the Cardinals, even if IC were 7-1.

[boobyhasgameyo]

To be honest, it was hard to get behind believing in Ithaca last year.  They were winning ugly games and could thank their special teams unit for a majority of their success.  If that is how you win then from an outsider's perspective it feels like playing with house money.  People will wait for the other shoe to drop in those situations. 

This year is a different feel, to me at least.  They aren't the same Ithaca teams of a decade ago, where if they were ranked in the top 15 you knew they really were a top contender, but they continue to trend upward. 

[Bombers798891]

To be honest, it was hard to get behind believing in Ithaca last year.  They were winning ugly games and could thank their special teams unit for a majority of their success.  If that is how you win then from an outsider's perspective it feels like playing with house money.  People will wait for the other shoe to drop in those situations. 

This year is a different feel, to me at least.  They aren't the same Ithaca teams of a decade ago, where if they were ranked in the top 15 you knew they really were a top contender, but they continue to trend upward.

I agree Re: IC special teams, it is true that most people view success there as an "ugly" way to win.

But at this point, I think we've seen it happen too many times to dismiss it. IC's return and coverage units simply make too many plays for it to be fluky, and it's gone on ever since Mike Welch took over. In his 20 years at the helm, IC's had AA returners six times (1995, 1996, 1998, 2006, 2007, 2011) And that doesn't even account for how great Sam Carney and Josh Oliver have been since they showed up.

Nationally, IC hasn't often had a chance to show off much, but they completely torched the coverage units of the two best teams they played in 2013, (Fisher and Wesley) in identical fashion: Opponent gives up a big return to Oliver, says "Well, we'll avoid him", kicks it to Carney, which is an even bigger disaster, and then decides to pooch it.

Even though a team can't always control the returns it gets/sees, I think IC's track record shows this is something the team views as an exploitable mismatch nearly every game, and we should take it into account when we see a big return, or block, or forced fumble.

[sjfcards]

To be honest, it was hard to get behind believing in Ithaca last year.  They were winning ugly games and could thank their special teams unit for a majority of their success.  If that is how you win then from an outsider's perspective it feels like playing with house money.  People will wait for the other shoe to drop in those situations. 

This year is a different feel, to me at least.  They aren't the same Ithaca teams of a decade ago, where if they were ranked in the top 15 you knew they really were a top contender, but they continue to trend upward.

I agree Re: IC special teams, it is true that most people view success there as an "ugly" way to win.

But at this point, I think we've seen it happen too many times to dismiss it. IC's return and coverage units simply make too many plays for it to be fluky, and it's gone on ever since Mike Welch took over. In his 20 years at the helm, IC's had AA returners six times (1995, 1996, 1998, 2006, 2007, 2011) And that doesn't even account for how great Sam Carney and Josh Oliver have been since they showed up.

Nationally, IC hasn't often had a chance to show off much, but they completely torched the coverage units of the two best teams they played in 2013, (Fisher and Wesley) in identical fashion: Opponent gives up a big return to Oliver, says "Well, we'll avoid him", kicks it to Carney, which is an even bigger disaster, and then decides to pooch it.

Even though a team can't always control the returns it gets/sees, I think IC's track record shows this is something the team views as an exploitable mismatch nearly every game, and we should take it into account when we see a big return, or block, or forced fumble.

I agree that it seems to be a popular notion that winning with special teams is an "ugly" way to win, but it never made sense to me. The points count just the same, and last time I checked coaches like to control field position.  Virginia Tech built a program around special team play.

If special teams are supposed to be a third of the game, I don't get it. Last year against Fisher I felt like Fisher was in control (even though the game was tight) at halftime and a big kickoff return set IC up, and changed the game for good. For an IC fan that kick return was probably a thing of beauty, not an ugly way to win.

As you said, it is way too consistent to be a fluke, and if it works it works.

[Bengalsrule]

Bengals at Frostburg this weekend. Dare I say "2 in a row?"

Go BENGALS!

[D3MAFAN]

Bengals at Frostburg this weekend. Dare I say "2 in a row?"

Go BENGALS!

Great comeback win for the Bengals last week. I double dare you to say two in a row...

[Bombers798891]

Bengals at Frostburg this weekend. Dare I say "2 in a row?"

Go BENGALS!

Buff State continues to be the team I simply cannot figure out. They're 3-1, but they're 1 second and 1 yard away from being 1-3. The offense looks good—especially Rich Pete—although they did struggle for much of the Alfred game. But the Bengals' defense looks like it could be a problem. I know they'll give IC trouble, and have a good shot at an upset (they always give Ithaca issues) but it's hard to buy in fully to them.

That said, they should win handily this week.

[Bengalsrule]

Bengals at Frostburg this weekend. Dare I say "2 in a row?"

Go BENGALS!

Buff State continues to be the team I simply cannot figure out. They're 3-1, but they're 1 second and 1 yard away from being 1-3. The offense looks good—especially Rich Pete—although they did struggle for much of the Alfred game. But the Bengals' defense looks like it could be a problem. I know they'll give IC trouble, and have a good shot at an upset (they always give Ithaca issues) but it's hard to buy in fully to them.

That said, they should win handily this week.

Bengals at Frostburg this weekend. Dare I say "2 in a row?"

Go BENGALS!

Great comeback win for the Bengals last week. I double dare you to say two in a row...

You 2 are my favorite posters!!..............................................."2 in a row"   

[Pat Coleman]

Maybe Im beating a dead horse here, but I dont see the way JCU leapfrogs a team that wins convincingly even if an opponent  has a good day.
The fact is that straight up, Fisher beats Fburg handily and should have moved into the 6 spot.  There was no reason for a leapfrog.
Maybe im missing something- ie the Heidelberg game - if that is it please explain it to me im slow today.

I did my homework and still dont get it.
Checked the competition records etc.

Unless there is a lean for the OAC i dont get it.
Will it straighten out when Otterbein plays more conference foes?

I kind of agree that the win probably wasn't enough to leap JCU over SJF.  I can only imagine two things hapened.

1.  Pollsters really examine the wins/losses and and base some sort of scientific formula on who beats who (like BW is a #50 ranked team compared to Frostburg being #150, so SJF should win by X amount of points and JCU should win by X amount of points)

2.  Pollsters simply forgot to look at last weeks poll, and/or moved JCU over SJF without really looking at the big picture.

I don't have a problem with #1, so Ill give the pollsters the benefit of the doubt on this one.

I think it's a combination of both of these. Part one is that no amount of margin of victory against Frostburg State is going to sway any of our voters, I'd say. They're just simply not that good. Part two is that a bunch of stuff happened in the general vicinity of both teams in the poll and that gives voters plenty of reason to re-evaluate the whole poll, or at least the top 10-12.

John Carroll not only beat Heidelberg, they held Heidelberg to 16. Then Heidelberg turned around and dropped 69 on a pretty good team.

Could the voters have evaluated it differently? Sure. But I think in general, they all did. With NCC and UST losing, there were a lot of points in the Top 10 in flux and you can definitely see things change in those situations.

[fisheralum91]

I will have do agree to disagree.
The season will play out and we will see.

[Pat Coleman]

I will have do agree to disagree.
The season will play out and we will see.

I didn't say whether it was right or wrong so I'm not sure what to disagree about. I'm just telling you how it likely happened.

[Bombers798891]

I personally believe it's largely irrelevant where JCU and Fisher are ranked now. They're so close to be indistinguishable, and since JCU has to play Mount, one of two things will happen:

1. They'll lose to Mount and will fall behind a 10-0 Fisher as a result
2. They'll upset Mount and will deservedly stay ahead of a 10-0 Fisher. (In which case the question will become how far Mount should fall.)

Although honestly, the teams are so close, I could see Fisher jumping them if they beat an 8-0 IC

[boobyhasgameyo]

Agreed.  What bombers said is exactly what I thought when I saw the new rankings.  It doesn't matter. 

By the way - the last two posts on the NJAC board are funny.  God bless the UMHB poster for trying to scrounge up a compliment. 

[fisheralum91]

I totally agree.....
Im just a Fisher homer that always wants more....
There --I said it...
Tho they should be 6th

[Bombers798891]

So, let's talk about Utica for a second.

Yeah, I know, we have these conversations every year. But they're 4-0, and last week Anthony Acevedo was almost unstoppable. Is IC better? Sure. Is the game at IC, where Utica's never played well? Sure.

But Ithaca has lost games to an individual WR before—all you have to do is look at John Babin in Cortaca last year. Acevedo caught 10 passes for 137 yards last year against Ithaca. In fairness, the Bombers also had four picks, but still. Blaise is going to have his guys ready to play