FB: Empire 8

[Bombers798891]

So here's my thoughts on the Fisher thing. If the Cardinals run the table, they better be Ithaca fans, because that's the only way I see them getting the AQ. The Bombers would have to run the table outside of Fisher, because that's the only way one of the following two scenarios happen—and these are the two ways Fisher is most likely to get the AQ*

1. If Cortland is 9-0: An Ithaca win in the Jug would start a three-way tie that Fisher could win

2. If Cortland is 8-1: An Ithaca win would give Cortland a second conference loss, and Fisher would either win it outright or via the H2H with Ithaca.

Obviously, the 2nd scenario is preferable to the first, since we don't know who wins the three way. There's another far-fetched scenario in which everyone but Fisher has two losses, but that would require:

1. If Cortland won the jug: Two teams from the rest of the E8 beat Cortland

2. If Ithaca won the jug: One team from the rest of the E8 beat Cortland, and one team did the same to Ithaca.

[Bombers798891]

Bombers,
I like your vote of confidence with Cortland! I've watched all their games this season and their biggest shortcoming is preventing 3rd down conversions.

Their D may very well be suspect, but their offensive  efficiency and effectiveness provides no favors. In each game, they have lost in time of possesion. Not because of an inefficient attack, but because they move the ball too well thus far! The defensive group is never off the field for more than 8 plays it seems. In a hurry up scheme, it does not matter if you have a terrible offense or a tremendous offense . Unless you are an above average hurry up offense, that eats time due to  long drives, the end result is always the same....turning the ball over quickly via a punt or a rapid score. The games are lengthened and provides the other squad with additional opportunities as well. Might as well have the D score on turnovers every series and never leave the field. Similar dilemma.

My breakdown may seem ridiculous but as a HS guy that has been in a successful hurry up, I have seen all angles. Unless you play "lights out "defense, an amazing hurry up squad is no different that an terrible hurry up squad to your defensive coordinator!

Rant over.....keep it up C - State. Great job this far!  1st world problems are such a pain!

I've got a lot of respect for Cortland...an underrated program over the past decade or so, and you have to feel for the way they lost the first two last year.

Ultimately, I think the Red Dragons are playing with fire (I'll be here all week, folks), but I personally believe that's okay as long as it works. This is D-III, so style points are almost completely irrelevant. Look at the Wick in 2007 or Ithaca last year. You can have a flawed unit. You just have to hold it together for the right 5 or 6 games, and you're in. Cortland could be 2-2 without their season really looking any different, but they're 4-0. Embrace it. (Until Cortaca, at least)

[boobyhasgameyo]

Yeah, not quite ready to hop on the Fisher going 8-2 bandwagon.  The offense is showing signs of life but they aren't going to be prolific enough every week to carry that defense if they don't improve.  This feels like a 6-4 type regular season with a bowl win against (insert random Becker type team) to finish 7-4.  But if they do make it to 8-2 I will be rooting for absolute chaos.     

[AUPepBand]

Other E8
Buff State's offense no-showed, and the defense was dreadful.

I couldn't have said it better myself !  Hopefully our season didn't go down with Hoppy last week! First home game is next week.  Gonna show the boys maaaad love!

Pep was sorry to see that Hoppy wasn't back on the field Saterday. Bengals moved the ball against AU with him on the field and had the Saxons on their heels. Without him, they struggled. Hope he's on the mend!

[AUPepBand]

Well, this ended up being the week the Ithaca running game found its legs, outrunning its the combined total of its first two games by more than 2 to 1 (253 today versus 103 in the first two games).  That was largely thanks to Tristan Brown, who had an average of over 10 yards a carry.  The passing game made a few mistakes early but got it together, though it clearly was playing a big second to the ground game.

The Bombers should probably count themselves a bit fortunate that things did not get off to a worse start.  Committing two first quarter interceptions, and having Alfred get into the red zone both times off of them, and yet only giving up 3 points was a big result for the defense.  That said, we're now three games into the season and I always worry about a team who needs one-half to come up with the goods every single week to keep winning.  Also, the penalty count was high again for IC (10 for 83 yards), and so far Ithaca has drawn more penalties than their opponents every game this season.  This is something that can easily come back to haunt you at the worst of times.

Overall, Ithaca played okay.

The biggest issue, other than Schaffer's interceptions (and he had another that bounced out of a defender's hands and was caught) was Ithaca's continued inability to manage the clock. After getting a first down at midfield to briefly stop the clock with 21 seconds to go in the first half, Ithaca failed to take a timeout. Ithaca managed to run out of time with the ball at the Alfred 30 or so, with TWO unused timeouts. Just inexplicable, and inexcusable, especially after it happened in Week 1.

The penalty issues are mildly concerning, but most of the ones this week were fixable. A taunting, several ones where Ithaca just lined up offsides/illegally.

To me, Ithaca would benefit a lot from making Tristan Brown the #1 running back. He clearly showed that capability last season, and his 63-yard touchdown run was electrifying. He also broke off another 52-yard run later, so there really aren't any questions about his injury.

There's a lot to like for Ithaca, however:

1. Offensively, the Bombers have touchdowns on 8-of-11 red zone trips...last year's team was just 26-for-47.

2. Defensively, Ithaca's allowed just a 44% completion percentage. They also have defensive touchdowns in three straight games.

3. The return unit is unreal. So far, Ithaca's had returns of 39, 46, 60, and 83 yards.

Bomber defense completely shut down the Saxons' 6-4 WR Buisch and Fuentes, who is the Saxons' other offensive sparkplug, was on the sidelines, likely from an injury from the Buffalo State game.

All in all, the game finished out as Pep had suspected. Pep got his hopes up when AU drew to within 3 with 10:00 to go in the game. But Tristan Brown's TD run appeared to take the wind out of our sails and, likely out of desperation, Johnson threw a pass he'd like to have back that put the nail in the coffin.

Pep was not at the game but watched online...at one point noticed Andy Miller (#40) was not on the field...but have no idea when that occurred. He was outstanding against the run vs. Husson and RPI then was injured against Buffalo State. The Bengals seemed to get right through our line without him in there.

Bombers are a solid team. Special teams and defense shine. Offense is coming along. Butterfield would be pleased. Have fun the rest of the way!

[AUPepBand]

So here's my thoughts on the Fisher thing. If the Cardinals run the table, they better be Ithaca fans, because that's the only way I see them getting the AQ. The Bombers would have to run the table outside of Fisher, because that's the only way one of the following two scenarios happen—and these are the two ways Fisher is most likely to get the AQ*

1. If Cortland is 9-0: An Ithaca win in the Jug would start a three-way tie that Fisher could win

2. If Cortland is 8-1: An Ithaca win would give Cortland a second conference loss, and Fisher would either win it outright or via the H2H with Ithaca.

Obviously, the 2nd scenario is preferable to the first, since we don't know who wins the three way. There's another far-fetched scenario in which everyone but Fisher has two losses, but that would require:

1. If Cortland won the jug: Two teams from the rest of the E8 beat Cortland

2. If Ithaca won the jug: One team from the rest of the E8 beat Cortland, and one team did the same to Ithaca.

Pep is thinking the Cardinals will likely go to 7-2 and be in position to take the AQ depending upon the Cortaca results. So all the Fisher players are watching the fancy new Growney Stadium scoreboard which is playing the ICTV webcast of Cortaca during the game while the lowly overlooked 3-6 Saxons, their opponent that day, pulls off the major upset and beats the Cardinals, 28-17, to end all Fisher possibilities of an NCAA appearance. 

[Bombers798891]

All in all, the game finished out as Pep had suspected. Pep got his hopes up when AU drew to within 3 with 10:00 to go in the game. But Tristan Brown's TD run appeared to take the wind out of our sails and, likely out of desperation, Johnson threw a pass he'd like to have back that put the nail in the coffin.

Yeah, Mrs. Bombers and I were talking about how quickly Brown's run just shifted everything. Any big play will do that to some degree, but the pure insanity of that run; the broken tackles, the change of direction, and the speed to finish it off...just unreal. Alfred was really fired up after the touchdown (especially because it came after an Ithaca taunting penalty), but that run just killed any shot they had IMO. If there's a video of it online, I haven't seen it, but it was absolutely a play of the week candidate

I was impressed by Johnson's limiting of the turnovers. Just one against a defense that forced six a week earlier.

[Bombers798891]

My top 3 in the E8. Not enough data to make separating 2-1, 2-2, 1-2 teams worth it:

1. Ithaca: Not much separating them from Cortland, but the Hobart win is the best one anyone in the conference has.

2. Cortland: The Heidelberg win has lost some of its luster, and, since we're dealing with undefeated teams, how impressive you are in a win seems like an effective tiebreaker. So for now, the Red Dragons sit at #2

3. Alfred: They gave Ithaca a game, and the RPI win is at least decent

Other thoughts:

*Hey, is Utica arriving this year?
*Remember when the E8 played defense?
*Is it possible that the Cortaca Jug turns into Dylan Peebles and [Insert Ithaca return guy] just trading long returns back and forth and we end up with a 35-31 game that features 75 combined yards of offense and three first downs?
*I hope Fisher either wins the Pool A or loses again soon, because I don't know if I have the energy to watch that team get to 7-2 and then debate their Pool C chances as Protectors of The East's Reputation. But it would be fun watching the Fisher guys come back from the ledge.

[boobyhasgameyo]

You keep implying we're on a ledge and I'm just not seeing it.  Who is on this ledge?  The guy who has called for the Fisher coaches to be fired has been saying that for a while now, not just this year.  And the rest of us have lowered our expectations for this year to an appropriate level.  Unless you want us to be irrational?  Which a lot of you guys accuse us of being in the first place.  Not sure what you're expecting out of us.  If they keep improving then yeah we'll feel better about them.  Pretty easy to follow that rationale. 

Also, nice jab at the protector of the east region thing.  Probably a deserved jab but to my dying day I will always think it's better that a flawed east team beats other undefeated east teams before being slaughtered by a purple power.  As opposed to that same hypothetical undefeated east team making it through and getting destroyed.  It's hard for me to see how anyone can deny the undefeated team would be seen as yet another great white hype out of the east, while some team that's already lost a couple times losing a 3rd won't be viewed as damagingly.  I would say that if it were Fisher taking out those undefeated teams or someone else in the east, it's just happened to be Fisher that's done it. 

Let us be your sacrificial lamb, please?   

[Bombers798891]

You keep implying we're on a ledge and I'm just not seeing it.  Who is on this ledge?  The guy who has called for the Fisher coaches to be fired has been saying that for a while now, not just this year.  And the rest of us have lowered our expectations for this year to an appropriate level.  Unless you want us to be irrational?  Which a lot of you guys accuse us of being in the first place.  Not sure what you're expecting out of us.  If they keep improving then yeah we'll feel better about them.  Pretty easy to follow that rationale. 

Also, nice jab at the protector of the east region thing.  Probably a deserved jab but to my dying day I will always think it's better that a flawed east team beats other undefeated east teams before being slaughtered by a purple power.  As opposed to that same hypothetical undefeated east team making it through and getting destroyed.  It's hard for me to see how anyone can deny the undefeated team would be seen as yet another great white hype out of the east, while some team that's already lost a couple times losing a 3rd won't be viewed as damagingly.  I would say that if it were Fisher taking out those undefeated teams or someone else in the east, it's just happened to be Fisher that's done it. 

Let us be your sacrificial lamb, please?   

1. It was a bit in jest...though it is odd to see a comment like "chances at running the table and getting in at 0%" and then a few weeks later "I've had this feeling Fisher's going to go 8-2 and win the AQ" when they've gone 1-1 in the meantime.

2. The protector thing...Every time I think about it, it just makes me think of this:

SCENE: Fisher sits on the Iron Throne. Everyone else cowers meekly. Winter is coming.

Fisher: "Don't worry guys, we'll take care of these paper tigers for you! Seriously, you guys are just going to make the region look bad, so stand back and let us handle things."

[Checks standings]

"Oh, hey, man, if you have a second, would you mind losing so we can have your Pool C bid? Also, you there, if you wouldn't mind losing as well, that'd be super. Thanks. We were going to win the Pool A bid, because we're more talented than [whoever won the Pool A in the E8, LL, and any New England Conference], but then we forgot to. What happened was, we started watching Breaking Bad—awesome show, by the way—and then someone said The Wire was even better, so we wanted to watch that, but we don't have HBO, so we had to get our buddy Seth's HBO Go password, and you know how Seth is...you can't ever get him off the phone. Then we started watching it, and by the time we got to the point where they shot Stringer, we'd lost to Salisbury and Ithaca. But how about a little something, you know, for the effort?"

[boobyhasgameyo]

I watched the wire - could never get into it.  The game of thrones on the other hand...that's my jam. 

Also, I'm definitely not trying to bring up that discussion again haha.  And for anyone ready to jump down my throat about it being a Fisher thing I'll say it one more time for emphasis.  Would feel the exact same way if it were an 8-2 Ithaca or Alfred team doing it.  It really comes down to conference to me.  I see the E8 as a whole as the strongest conference in the east.  Would rather have the E8 rep expose some of the undefeateds who are mostly that way due to an easier schedule than anything, than the same undefeated eastern team being exposed in a later round in the playoffs with more eyes watching. 

[Bombers798891]

I watched the wire - could never get into it.  The game of thrones on the other hand...that's my jam. 

Also, I'm definitely not trying to bring up that discussion again haha.  And for anyone ready to jump down my throat about it being a Fisher thing I'll say it one more time for emphasis.  Would feel the exact same way if it were an 8-2 Ithaca or Alfred team doing it.  It really comes down to conference to me.  I see the E8 as a whole as the strongest conference in the east.  Would rather have the E8 rep expose some of the undefeateds who are mostly that way due to an easier schedule than anything, than the same undefeated eastern team being exposed in a later round in the playoffs with more eyes watching.

I would too. I don't have a problem with the concept, but I can't buy any team that is 8-2/7-3 as really being the team that we should trust to do it (which is pretty much every E8 team ever for the last five years) Quit screwing around and go 9-1 or 10-0 already.

[Bombers798891]

I think this speaks to a general issue I have with the E8...we like to think that we're at some higher level than these other conferences in the East, and yes, there is some truth to our overall depth.

But then there's this:

—Our 2013 and 2014 conference champ lost both seasons to an NJAC school that went 9-10 in the other games they played those seasons. (Ithaca)

—The founding E8 member that made the playoffs in 2011 but also lost by 36 points at home to a LL team (Fisher)

—Remember 2010? The year we all kind of groaned that the LL's Pool A team went 5-5? Yeah, our conference champ went 0-2 against the LL that year. (Alfred)

—Our 2009 champ went one-and-done in the playoffs after playing four OOC games against opponents that went a combined 9-31 (Alfred)

—2007 and 2008 when the little old NEFC took out the big bad E8s AQs (Ithaca and Hartwick)

For all our talk, you know what? Our champs/playoff teams don't exactly lord over the teams from other conferences in the region. They lose to the NEFC, the NJAC, and the LL all the time. Frankly, Salisbury's done as much for our conference recently than our permanent teams have. We're not exactly dominating the region to the extent we think we are.

Heck, Cortland's performance from 2008-2012 in the NJAC is probably as good, if not better, than anything we've had to offer

[jknezek]

It's not often you get a piece of reality spelled out on an online message board. +K Bombers

[boobyhasgameyo]

The reality is that our conference still has a better shot to do it than any other eastern region conference.  Except for now with Wesley and company moving into the NJAC.  You cited some examples but I didn't say we are perfect, just the best chance to knock off an east paper tiger.  Like in 2007 yeah sure we had a couple teams lose but Fisher made it to the 3rd round that year.  Just look at the records in the playoffs:

NJAC:  26-21 and the vaaaast majority of those came from Rowan who was more than legit back in the day.  No gripes there. 

E8:  19-17
LL:  13-19
NEFC: 3-18
ECFC:  0-5
MASCAC: 0-1 and counting
MAC: 21-18....I guess they can debunk what I'm saying here.  But I just feel like we're stronger than them haha.  Plus that was one of the undefeated teams that a limited Fisher team beat back in the year of the Kramer. 

So if you take out the Rowan outlier years that carried that record to above .500 then all of the other conferences are below .500 with the exception of the MAC.  So nobody is perfect but we still have had the best chance in the past.