FB: Empire 8

[82 cardinals]

Well Fisher gets Alfred at home, I hope that gives fisher a chance. I really don't no why they shot themselves in the foot evertime they play.

[AUKaz00]

Well Fisher gets Alfred at home, I hope that gives fisher a chance. I really don't no why they shot themselves in the foot evertime they play.

Every time?  Last year Fisher came to Mayville and won 34-12 with a Pool C bid for the taking and in 2013 it was the longest 5 minutes of my life en route to a 48-13 win with the longshot hope of a Pool C in the balance for both teams.

[Bombers798891]

E8 thoughts:

1. Anyone seen middlerelief? Is he still picketing for Vosburgh to be fired?

2. Five-way tie still in play for the E8.

3. Ithaca's wheels have officially come off.

4. Am I the only one who thinks Buff State plays to the level of their opponent more often than they should?

3.

[ExTartanPlayer]

4. Am I the only one who thinks Buff State the entire conference plays to the level of their opponent more often than they should?

Cortland: losses to Morrisville State and Buffalo State, beat Wick by 3
Alfred: losses to Cortland and Ithaca
Fisher: losses to Cortland and Buffalo State
Morrisville State: losses to Alfred, Fisher, and Utica, beat Wick by 3
Buffalo State: losses to Alfred, Morrisville State, and Hartwick
Utica: losses to Cortland, Fisher, and Brockport

I mean, literally everyone in the league has losses (plural) to other teams with a loss to someone else down the food chain.  I get what you're saying that Buff State is the only team who actually managed to lose to Hartwick, but the Wick also played within a FG of Cortland and Morrisville, so those two aren't immune from the same criticism; they have the same "lost to someone else, close shave with Wick" profile.

Possibly even weirder is that, as I look through the results...I don't think there's a team that has only lost close games, either.  Everybody has at least one 14-point loss, right?  Everyone in the league seems to have kind of a high-ceiling, low-floor depending on which version shows up that day.

[Bombers798891]

Well Fisher gets Alfred at home, I hope that gives fisher a chance. I really don't no why they shot themselves in the foot evertime they play.

Looking at the last few Alfred victories over Fisher:

2012— Alfred 26, Fisher 13. The Saxons do get two TDs in the last 8 seconds at the end of the first half, but they also hold Fisher to just 45 yards rushing, while getting more than 200 of their own. Saxons finish the year ahead of Fisher in the conference standings

2010— Alfred 41, Fisher 32. The Saxons score 42 points behind 21-of-27 passing from Tom Secky, and 162 rushing yards from Austin Dwyer. The Saxons average 7 yards a play, and go 10-for-13 on third down. Alfred winds up going to the national quarterfinals

2009— Alfred 31, Fisher 28. The Saxons force a fumbled punt late in the 4th to take the lead, win on a last second FG. Saxons wind up with just one regular season loss (unsurprisingly to Ithaca, on grass)

2008— Alfred 36, Fisher 33 (OT). The Saxons use a few long TD passes to get a lead, Fisher's comeback gets stopped by a blocked XP. Saxons win in OT.

I don't see necessarily where Fisher shout themselves in the foot to lose these games. They turned the ball over a bit at had some isolated kicking problems in their losses, but nothing extreme. Especially when you look at the last three times they've beaten Alfred, where the Saxons have done pretty much nothing except turn the ball over. Alfred has also been very good in most of those years.

So here's one theory: Alfred has good players too, and are therefore capable of making plays to allow them to win. I know Fisher just got done cleaning IC's clock, but I told some other Fisher posters this earlier in the year, so I'm not saying this because I'm bitter about last week: There are other good football programs in the E8 too. Alfred happens to be one of them, which is why they've been able to win a few (usually narrow) games against Fisher over the years

[ExTartanPlayer]

So here's one theory: Alfred has good players too, and are therefore capable of making plays to allow them to win. I know Fisher just got done cleaning IC's clock, but I told some other Fisher posters this earlier in the year, so I'm not saying this because I'm bitter about last week: There are other good football programs in the E8 too. Alfred happens to be one of them, which is why they've been able to win a few (usually narrow) games against Fisher over the years

Interesting theory, counselor. 

[Saxon73]

Going for a 6-way tie for the E8!  ( I have not seen this elsewhere and have not heard the podcast.)

Cort                5-2;  lose to Ithaca                  5-3
Alfred              4-2; lose to Utica; beat SJF      5-3
SJF                  4-2; beat Hart; lose to Alfred   5-3
Morris               4-3; beat Brock                      5-3
Buff                  3-3;  beat Ithaca & Brock        5-3
Utica                3-3;   beat Alfred & Hart          5-3

I cant wait for magicman to see this. He will have an answer (I betting)!!

I'm not entirely sure how the 1st tiebreaker (Head to Head play) works. If it means the best record against the tied teams then Utica and Fisher are out since they were 2-3 against the other 5 teams. Buff State, Cortland and Alfred were all 3-2 against the other 5 teams.

If that holds true (and I'm not sure that it does) then it's back to head to head play among the 3 remaining teams. Since Cortland beat Alfred, and Buff State beat Cortland and Alfred beat Buff State, the next criteria..how the teams fared against the lowest ranked teams would be used since there are still 3 teams tied. That would eliminate Buffalo State since they lost to the last place team Hartwick (and the scenario of 6 teams ending up with a 5-3 record means that Hartwick ends up with a 1-7 record and sole possession of last place) while Alfred and Cortland both lost to Ithaca.

Now that we are down to just 2 teams then tiebreaker number 1 comes back into play and the head to head result would leave Cortland, who defeated Alfred, as the winner of the automatic qualifier.

That's my best guess, now all you guys can rip that apart.

I am not sure how this will work out either, but here is an alternative possibility.

The first tiebreaker - head to head - may not come into play because of the winning percentage criteria being the same for all six.  Instead of comparing the tied teams we go to the second tiebreaker comparing the lowest ranked team, Hartwick.  This knocks out Buff St. leaving the other five. "Once one team is eliminated by a tiebreaker, the remaining teams will begin the process anew starting with the first criteria-head to head.

Now we have five teams with an identical percentage and we must consider the Brockport schedule as next lowest and this has no effect as they did not beat any of the five remaining teams.

Working with this same possible logic we must consider the Ithaca schedule which knocks out Alfred and Cortland. Leaving SJF, Moo and Utica.

SJF wins out as they beat both teams head to head.

Not happy with it but it is a possibility.  My cranium hurts.

[Bombers798891]

Anyway, no Ithaca does not have the horses to run the West coast offense anymore.  I've talked about it a bunch of times with that fullback simply getting in the way on pretty much every run play.  Like I said before (as did you), Ithaca needs a change on offense that much is clear.

Serious, non-combative question though:

What offensive style does Ithaca have the horses to run? Ithaca's scored 12 points in their last 10 quarters, all of them in garbage time. That goes beyond a scheme issue.

I don't know as much about Xs and Os as you, but here's what I see:

—If you take away Tristan Brown's three longest runs of the season, he is averaging just 3.1 YPC. I know that every running back's numbers look worse when you do this, but still, that's a really low number to have when I'm only taking away three carries. That speaks to an inability of the offensive line to open up consistent holes to allow Ithaca to gain 4, 5, 6 yards a carry more consistently.

—Ithaca's WR play has remained average at best, with the Bombers averaging just 10.9 yards per catch, down from last season's 11.1 (which wasn't that good either).

—Ithaca's QB play has deteriorated a ton. They're completing just 58% of their passes (down from 66%), and they're throwing interceptions every 19.6 attempts, more than twice the rate of last year. That completion rate isn't great considering how vanilla most of ICs passes are, either.

(To be fair, some of this is probably injury related. Brian Balsamo, who had 17 catches in the first 4 games, hasn't played since. Kyle Hastings (24 catches in 6 games) has missed the last two games. Every offense is going to struggle when two of their top 3 receiving targets are out.)

Again, just one man's opinion, but I don't think it's a scheme issue. I think it's a talent issue

[Bengalsrule]

Going for a 6-way tie for the E8!  ( I have not seen this elsewhere and have not heard the podcast.)

Cort                5-2;  lose to Ithaca                  5-3
Alfred              4-2; lose to Utica; beat SJF      5-3
SJF                  4-2; beat Hart; lose to Alfred   5-3
Morris               4-3; beat Brock                      5-3
Buff                  3-3;  beat Ithaca & Brock        5-3
Utica                3-3;   beat Alfred & Hart          5-3

I cant wait for magicman to see this. He will have an answer (I betting)!!

I'm not entirely sure how the 1st tiebreaker (Head to Head play) works. If it means the best record against the tied teams then Utica and Fisher are out since they were 2-3 against the other 5 teams. Buff State, Cortland and Alfred were all 3-2 against the other 5 teams.

If that holds true (and I'm not sure that it does) then it's back to head to head play among the 3 remaining teams. Since Cortland beat Alfred, and Buff State beat Cortland and Alfred beat Buff State, the next criteria..how the teams fared against the lowest ranked teams would be used since there are still 3 teams tied. That would eliminate Buffalo State since they lost to the last place team Hartwick (and the scenario of 6 teams ending up with a 5-3 record means that Hartwick ends up with a 1-7 record and sole possession of last place) while Alfred and Cortland both lost to Ithaca.

Now that we are down to just 2 teams then tiebreaker number 1 comes back into play and the head to head result would leave Cortland, who defeated Alfred, as the winner of the automatic qualifier.

That's my best guess, now all you guys can rip that apart.

Awesome breakdown and analysis...+K

That's why they call him the MAGICman!!  You guys on E8 boards just got a glimpse of what we, on 'Yac hoops boards, have been privy to for the past 6 plus years!

[Pat Coleman]

Put a story together on the continuing conference shuffle in the East Region and might be of interest here:
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2015/11/the-race-to-seven

[Saxon73]

Put a story together on the continuing conference shuffle in the East Region and might be of interest here:
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2015/11/the-race-to-seven

Geographically and enrollment wise, Hartwick would fit nicely into the LL compared to Ithaca.  Not saying I want it, but the Empire Nine could afford it.

[NED3Guy]

Hartwick also has the common tie to many LL schools in that they sponsor a D1 athletic program within a D3 school.

[AUPepBand]

Anyway, no Ithaca does not have the horses to run the West coast offense anymore.  I've talked about it a bunch of times with that fullback simply getting in the way on pretty much every run play.  Like I said before (as did you), Ithaca needs a change on offense that much is clear.

Serious, non-combative question though:

What offensive style does Ithaca have the horses to run? Ithaca's scored 12 points in their last 10 quarters, all of them in garbage time. That goes beyond a scheme issue.

I don't know as much about Xs and Os as you, but here's what I see:

—If you take away Tristan Brown's three longest runs of the season, he is averaging just 3.1 YPC. I know that every running back's numbers look worse when you do this, but still, that's a really low number to have when I'm only taking away three carries. That speaks to an inability of the offensive line to open up consistent holes to allow Ithaca to gain 4, 5, 6 yards a carry more consistently.

—Ithaca's WR play has remained average at best, with the Bombers averaging just 10.9 yards per catch, down from last season's 11.1 (which wasn't that good either).

—Ithaca's QB play has deteriorated a ton. They're completing just 58% of their passes (down from 66%), and they're throwing interceptions every 19.6 attempts, more than twice the rate of last year. That completion rate isn't great considering how vanilla most of ICs passes are, either.

(To be fair, some of this is probably injury related. Brian Balsamo, who had 17 catches in the first 4 games, hasn't played since. Kyle Hastings (24 catches in 6 games) has missed the last two games. Every offense is going to struggle when two of their top 3 receiving targets are out.)

Again, just one man's opinion, but I don't think it's a scheme issue. I think it's a talent issue

Pep thinks this may be the reason that E8 teams can look like a Top 25 team one week and appear mediocre another. It's a given that at present there isn't much difference between top and bottom in the E8. Yes, any Saturday... Pep is thinking that the E8 teams don't have the depth to maintain the quality of performance when the team sustains injuries. All of the teams have talent. Don't think there's any question. But a few key losses to a starting line-up can throw a wrench in the works.

Pep recalls the game with Fisher in 2008 when AU was up 30-14 and suddenly went into ultra-conservative mode, much to Pep's dismay. The offense took the foot off the gas and went nowhere, while Fisher rallied and might have won had the Saxons not blocked the Cardinals' PAT with 2 minutes to go and the score 30-30. AU won it in OT, 36-33. Pep queried AU's starting center as to the demise of the AU attack in that particular game. Pep was told that when the center went out late in the third quarter due to injury, the backup center struggled with long snaps, so the QB had to go under center. That threw the timing off and limited the plays AU could run.

The Empire 8 is a highly competitive conference from top to bottom because the talent from the region is equally distributed among the teams. There is, however, a critical lack of depth. None of the teams has the depth to overcome injuries and maintain a high level of performance for a 11-week season, much less a 16-week season. That's Pep's humble opinion in the matter.

On Saxon Warriors!

[dlippiel]

Hartwick also has the common tie to many LL schools in that they sponsor a D1 athletic program within a D3 school.

What sport at Wick is D1? Badminton? Bowling? Table Tennis? Mini-Golf? ...just curious 

[Saxon73]

Hartwick also has the common tie to many LL schools in that they sponsor a D1 athletic program within a D3 school.

What sport at Wick is D1? Badminton? Bowling? Table Tennis? Mini-Golf? ...just curious 

Soccer