FB: Empire 8

[FisherAlum05]

I havent read any posts for a couple days but im sure this has been discussed.  If Ithaca wins against SC this weekend, and IC, SC, and SJF all finish 9-1 what will happen with regards to a tie breaker?  Does anyone know how they determine the AQ??  Is there a chance all 3 teams get into the playoffs at 9-1??  That would certainly be a great thing for the E8 conference. 

[realistic]

Fisher05 - this was posted a few pages back.

For those wondering...The Empire 8 actually has a somewhat cogent tiebreaker.  From the League's SID, Tim Farrell:

The following criteria will be used to determine the E8's NCAA automatic qualifier:

(If a tie exists among three or more teams and one of the tied teams is eliminated by this process, the process will begin anew at No. 1 of the tie-breaking criteria among the remaining tied teams).

1. Head-to-Head results.

2. Results vs. lowest ranked conference teams (7th, 6th, 5th, etc) based on final season standings.

3. Results versus common non-league opponents

4. The team's overall quality of win index (as determined by the NCAA procedure used at the completion of the season)

5. Overall record

Theres no way 3 E8 teams get in.  If the 3x 9-1 happens, someone is getting "snubbed"

[gobombers15]

Ithaca's QOWI will go through the roof if they beat these final three teams. As I mentioned a bunch of pages back, if such a scenario does play out, I think Fisher will be the odd team out if they don't get the AQ. I don't agree or disagree with this, but just my opinion based on:

1) IC would have won last three games against very good teams with their backs against the wall.

2) Fisher would have been the only one who lost a game on their home field.

3) No matter what you say, I don't think the committee will equate Fisher's victories over Kings and UR with IC's victory over Cortland, and SC's victory over Union.

Again, this isn't my personal opinion. Just the way I think things would shake out. Call me crazy, but I think Alfred will win at least one of these last three games at home.

[FisherAlum05]

In my opinion if SC, SJF, and IC all go 9-1 then all three deserve to make the playoffs.  Its too bad someone will probably be snubbed.  But if all 3 teams are ranked high regionally and the end of the regular season why cant all 3 teams get in??  The AQ plus two pool C bids.  Has this ever happened I wonder?? We might find out if IC pulls it out this weekend.  

[JQV]

In my opinion if SC, SJF, and IC all go 9-1 then all three deserve to make the playoffs.  Its too bad someone will probably be snubbed.  But if all 3 teams are ranked high regionally and the end of the regular season why cant all 3 teams get in??  The AQ plus two pool C bids.  Has this ever happened I wonder?? We might find out if IC pulls it out this weekend.  

I think, in that scenario, there is no question all three would be deserving but, there are a limited number of Pool C bids nationally.  That means someone always gets snubbed.  It seems to me like the NCAA likes to spread the Pool Cs out nationally.  Maybe Pat can tell us the last time a Conference got two Pool Cs.

[theicdubbz]

In my opinion if SC, SJF, and IC all go 9-1 then all three deserve to make the playoffs.  Its too bad someone will probably be snubbed.  But if all 3 teams are ranked high regionally and the end of the regular season why cant all 3 teams get in??  The AQ plus two pool C bids.  Has this ever happened I wonder?? We might find out if IC pulls it out this weekend.  

I think, in that scenario, there is no question all three would be deserving but, there are a limited number of Pool C bids nationally.  That means someone always gets snubbed.  It seems to me like the NCAA likes to spread the Pool Cs out nationally.  Maybe Pat can tell us the last time a Conference got two Pool Cs.

And the teams in Ohio and other Midwest states tend to pull hard on Pool C bids too.  Especially with the match up this weekend happening out there. #1 Mount Union vs #4 Capitol.

[realistic]

I don't know if it has ever happened (especially with the playoff system only recently expanding) but I can't see the E8 getting 2 Pool C's....I don't really see it happening anywhere, but the WIAC or Ohio seems like the only place it would ever be possible.  Its too bad someone would get snubbed but the way it is.  Win out.

[realistic]

nice Dubs.  Great minds.....

[theicdubbz]

Yep.

Those Ohio teams get snubbed even if they do get in.  Remember last year, or was it the previous, anyways, it ended up that in one part of the Playoff bracket 4 of the teams were in the top 10.

[tecmobowler]

Here is my concern with a potential three way tie:

Springfield would most likely get the "A" based on QOWI when the dust settles.

Despite potential IC victories against Springfield, and Cortland, the committee will take Fisher since they won the heads up meeting.

Would be sad if they took a two loss team from elsewhere in order to avoid three teams from the same conference.  Wonder if there's any precedent for that.

[tecmobowler]

Here are all of the current 1 loss teams currently not winning their conference.  These are the teams folks should hope for a loss (minus your own squad of course!) Capital is the exception with 0 losses, but they have Mount Union left..

Hardin- Simmons
Sul Ross State
Ursinus
Wheaton
Fisher
Ithaca
Alfred
Franklin
Defiance
Wartburg
Union
Bethel
Rowan
Wooster
Capital
LaCrosse

[theicdubbz]

nice tecmo... two things, A) turn the warm up in.  B) would you mind doing the texting/phone calling to Dubbz this saterday with scores and big plays as poor Dubbz wont be there.

[Frank Rossi]

Here is my concern with a potential three way tie:

Springfield would most likely get the "A" based on QOWI when the dust settles.

Despite potential IC victories against Springfield, and Cortland, the committee will take Fisher since they won the heads up meeting.

Would be sad if they took a two loss team from elsewhere in order to avoid three teams from the same conference.  Wonder if there's any precedent for that.

I'll post a broader analysis later, but the Quality of Wins tiebreaker will only come in under one scenario:  Ithaca beats Springfield (Springfield wins out), Ithaca beats Alfred, St. John Fisher beats Alfred, St. John Fisher beats Utica.  That would be the three-teams-at-one-loss-who-lost-to-each-other scenario -- the only one.  In a four-way tie at two losses, there cannot be use of the lower tiebreaker because two teams will likely fall out after the head-to-head tiebreaker.  The E8 Playoff scenarios are actually simpler than you're making them out to be.

Also note that if the QoW scenario were to play out, Springfield would be severely damaged -- because the wins it would attain would hamper it's QoW average greatly, the loss would hamper it even more, and Ithaca would skyrocket with a 23 or 24 points added in its QoW tally.  I believe Ithaca would overtake Springfield under that scenario (assuming Ithaca beats Cortland).  However, again, QoW is an anamolous case in the E8 because of the intermixing of higher teams still to play each other (i.e., SOMEONE has to lose).

[JQV]

The E8 Playoff scenarios are actually simpler than you're making them out to be.

Wow, this is condescending as h***.  Especially considering you posted exactly what Tecmo posted.

[tecmobowler]

Hardin- Simmons

Remaining Opponents: Sal Ross State (5-1) Texas Lutheran (4-3) McMurray (3-5)
HSU was 2-1 versus these teams last year, losing to Texas Luth on the road.  
Chances of Winning out: 8/10

Sul Ross State
Remaining Opponents:  Hardin Simmons (5-1) Louisiana college (3-3) Mississippi College (4-3)
Seem to be playing over their heads this year. 0-2 against these teams last year.
Chances of winning out: 2/10

Wheaton

Remaining Opponents: Elmhurst (5-2) Carthage (5-2) Illinois Wesleyan (2-5)
Tough, tough schedule left.  Have Carthage on the road
Chances of winning out: 5/10

Fisher

Remaining Opponents:  Utica (2-5) Alfred (6-1)
One test remaining in Alfred, the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Fighting some major injuries.
Chances of winning out: 7/10

Ithaca

Remaining Opponents: Springfield (7-0), Alfred (6-1), Cortand (7-0)
Ouch what a schedule remaining!  If they win out, they deserve to be in.
Chances of winning out 5/10

Alfred

Remaining Opponents:Hobart (6-0) Ithaca (6-1) Fisher (7-1)
Speaking of rough schedules... an uphill battle from here.
Chances of winning out: 2/10

Franklin

Remaining Opponents: Manchester (1-6) Defiance (6-1) Hanover (2-5)
One big one left.  Franklin lost to Defiance 38-23 last year.
Chances of winning out: 4/10

Defiance

Remaining Opponents:  Mt. Saint Joseph (7-0), Franklin (6-1), Bluffton (3-4)
Pool C lovers should hope for a loss to MSJ and a win against Franklin.  Beating MSJ would give defiance a likely "A" bid, and move MSJ in into the "C" pool.
Chances of winning out: 4/10

Wartburg

Remaining Opponents:Buena Vista (4-3) , Cornell (2-5) , Dubuque (3-4)
Wartburg beat all of these teams last year.  Seems the most likely of this list to win out.
Chances of winning out: 9/10

Union

Remaining Opponents: St. Lawrence (3-3), Hobart (6-0), RPI (4-2)
Has played uninspired football so far this season.  Hobart and RPI on the road will be a tough way to finish.
Chances of winning out: 3/10

Bethel

Remaining Opponents: Hamline (3-4) , Augsburg (0-7) , St. John's (8-0)

They draw St. Johns in the finale, after a Johnnies bye week, on the road.  Ick.
Chances of winning out: 1/10

Rowan

Remaining Opponents: Montclair State (4-3) , Cortland State (7-0), William Patterson (1-6)

Can probably afford a loss since the their one loss is to a Division I-AA school.  Lost to Willy P last year, but darn unlikely to happen again.
Chances of winning out (or not losing more than one):  8/10

Wooster

Remaining Opponents: Wabash (5-2) , Earlham (2-5), Kenyon (4-3)
One of an absurd amount of teams in the NCAC with one conference loss. That being said, Wooster is the only team with less than two overall losses.  Wabash destroyed them last year.
Chances of winning out: 4/10

Capital

Remaining Opponents:  Mount Union (7-0) , Muskingum (1-6) , Baldwin-Wallace (5-2)
Undefeated. but listed here since they draw Mount next week.  They shutout Baldwin-Wallace 34-0 last year.
Chances of winning out (or at least not losing two games): 8/10

LaCrosse

Remaining Opponents:  Stout (3-4), River Falls (3-4), Oshkosh (4-4)
Lacrosse lost to Stout last year.  All seem these teams seems like possible wins, or possible losses.
Chances of winning out: 6/10