FB: Empire 8

[Frank Rossi]

The E8 Playoff scenarios are actually simpler than you're making them out to be.

Wow, this is condescending as h***.  Especially considering you posted exactly what Tecmo posted.

No, it's not.  I said Ithaca would beat out Springfield for the Auto-Bid if it came down to the anamolous situation of the QoW tiebreaker.  He thought Springfield would be the shoo-in.  Also, I broke down the fact that there should be less focus on the QoW tiebreaker being used.

[Frank Rossi]

Hardin- Simmons

Remaining Opponents: Sal Ross State (5-1) Texas Lutheran (4-3) McMurray (3-5)
HSU was 2-1 versus these teams last year, losing to Texas Luth on the road.  
Chances of Winning out: 8/10

(ETC)

Good collection of info.  However, remember that some teams can be chosen with three losses while some with one loss stay home.  You have to remember to add two-loss teams with out-of-division losses and treat similar one-loss teams as undefeated for purposes of Pool C.  The quality of the LOSS(es) also makes a huge difference.  Union with two losses (assuming, for argument, 10-0 Springfield and 9-0 Hobart) would be more likely to go than Wooster with one loss to a 2-7 team (hypothetical).  This is reflected by the fact that Union currently is the second-highest one-loss team in the QoW index.  Finally, the 2006 Playoff handbook is out.   While it appears 23 conferences would qualify since they have 7+ teams, only 21 are getting auto-bids.  I'm not sure if you did it, but the PAC and the NWC need to be looked at as "Pool B" -- It's unlikely that a fifth Pool B team would receive a Pool C bid this year.

[Frank Rossi]

In my opinion if SC, SJF, and IC all go 9-1 then all three deserve to make the playoffs.  Its too bad someone will probably be snubbed.  But if all 3 teams are ranked high regionally and the end of the regular season why cant all 3 teams get in??  The AQ plus two pool C bids.  Has this ever happened I wonder?? We might find out if IC pulls it out this weekend.  

I think, in that scenario, there is no question all three would be deserving but, there are a limited number of Pool C bids nationally.  That means someone always gets snubbed.  It seems to me like the NCAA likes to spread the Pool Cs out nationally.  Maybe Pat can tell us the last time a Conference got two Pool Cs.

It almost happened last year.  RPI, Hobart and Union would have all likely received bids last year if RPI had beaten Union, based on the fact that RPI was essentially one team short of receiving a Pool C bid and Union was placed as a higher seed than expected.  It is possible.

[tecmobowler]

From Frank:
I'll post a broader analysis later, but the Quality of Wins tiebreaker will only come in under one scenario:  Ithaca beats Springfield (Springfield wins out), Ithaca beats Alfred, St. John Fisher beats Alfred, St. John Fisher beats Utica.  That would be the three-teams-at-one-loss-who-lost-to-each-other scenario -- the only one.  

My reply
If the first of your situations happens (Ithaca over Springfield), the rest is extremely, extremely likely.

[tecmobowler]

Hardin- Simmons

Remaining Opponents: Sal Ross State (5-1) Texas Lutheran (4-3) McMurray (3-5)
HSU was 2-1 versus these teams last year, losing to Texas Luth on the road.  
Chances of Winning out: 8/10

(ETC)

Good collection of info.  However, remember that some teams can be chosen with three losses while some with one loss stay home.  You have to remember to add two-loss teams with out-of-division losses and treat similar one-loss teams as undefeated for purposes of Pool C.  The quality of the LOSS(es) also makes a huge difference.  Union with two losses (assuming, for argument, 10-0 Springfield and 9-0 Hobart) would be more likely to go than Wooster with one loss to a 2-7 team (hypothetical).  This is reflected by the fact that Union currently is the second-highest one-loss team in the QoW index.  Finally, the 2006 Playoff handbook is out.   While it appears 23 conferences would qualify since they have 7+ teams, only 21 are getting auto-bids.  I'm not sure if you did it, but the PAC and the NWC need to be looked at as "Pool B" -- It's unlikely that a fifth Pool B team would receive a Pool C bid this year.

I don't think Union should stay up at night worrying about their playoff hopes.

[Frank Rossi]

Then Cortland-Ithaca would likely determine the E8.

And as for Union, I think you should recognize by your one-loss assessment that there is a paucity of strong teams THROUGHOUT Division III this year.  Two losses for Union would actually keep it very much in the hunt.  Hobart with one loss to Union would be a near certainty to get a Pool C bid right now.

[JQV]

Then Cortland-Ithaca would likely determine the E8.

Heck with the E8.  If IC loses Saterday, Cortland-Ithaca will determine how we remember this senior class.

[gobombers15]

Here is my concern with a potential three way tie:

Springfield would most likely get the "A" based on QOWI when the dust settles.

Despite potential IC victories against Springfield, and Cortland, the committee will take Fisher since they won the heads up meeting.

Would be sad if they took a two loss team from elsewhere in order to avoid three teams from the same conference.  Wonder if there's any precedent for that.

I think, in the committee's eyes, they would treat all three equally and, thus, would look at the factors I mentioned. I don't think it would immediately be "Oh, SC won the conference, let's compare Ithaca and Fisher."

[AUKaz00]

Hardin- Simmons

Ithaca

Remaining Opponents: Springfield (7-0), Alfred (6-1), Cortand (7-0)
Ouch what a schedule remaining!  If they win out, they deserve to be in.
Chances of winning out 5/10

Alfred

Remaining Opponents:Hobart (6-0) Ithaca (6-1) Fisher (7-1)
Speaking of rough schedules... an uphill battle from here.
Chances of winning out: 2/10

Tecmo,
 I know these are just your probabilities, but how Ithaca have a 50% of winning out when two of their games are on the road while Alfred only a 20% chance when all three are at home?  I'd think both would be in the 30-35% range.

And Fisher beat out Alfred for the ECAC bid last year even though AU beat SJF and had a better E8 record last year, so the second team in for a three-way tie may not be as logical as we think.

[tecmobowler]

From Frank

Also note that if the QoW scenario were to play out, Springfield would be severely damaged


My Reply

I hope you're right.  I'm afraid however, you are not.  Each team has three out of conference opponents.  Here are the current records of those teams.

Ithaca: Huntingdon, Buffalo State, Cortland (12-10)
Springfield: Union, Montclair State, Husson (13-7)
Fisher: King's, Rochester, Mount Ida (14-7)

[tecmobowler]

Throwing words like paucity around isn't going to impress anyone.. it's only going to confuse poor ICdubbz.

Hardin-Simmons, Capital, Wartburg, and Rowan (if they lose to Cortland) are highly probable to get C bids.  You can't tell me there won't be three more one-loss teams.

[tecmobowler]

Kaz-  It's mostly my personal belief that Alfred would be good to win one of those games, two would be highly unlikely, three would be just short of a miracle.

[Frank Rossi]

Throwing words like paucity around isn't going to impress anyone.. it's only going to confuse poor ICdubbz.

Hardin-Simmons, Capital, Wartburg, and Rowan (if they lose to Cortland) are highly probable to get C bids.  You can't tell me there won't be three more one-loss teams.

It's irrelevant how many one-loss teams there are if there are Midwestern two-loss teams or two-loss teams viewed as having quality losses.  You've watched this play out for a number of years...You know how the committee works.  It's not a simple "more losses" issue.

[Frank Rossi]

The real problem could arise if any of the three-loss teams who are tied or close for their conference title pull Pool A bids (Kenyon/Oberlin/Wittenberg/Allegheny in the NCAC, Emory and Henry in the ODAC, Millsaps in the SCAC).  That'd turn Pool C on its head.

[saxontad]

Hello AUPepBand,
Any buzz on campus about the Hobart game?  I think we can win this thing.  Cannot wait for saterday (ouch-I hate misspelling!!!)