FB: Empire 8

[Frank Rossi]

In an effort to unlock the mystery of the three-way tie between SJF, Ithaca and Springfield, I've computed what would happen if all three of those teams win out this season.  As you remember, the tiebreaker that will decide this tie will be the NCAA's Quality of Wins index ("QoW").  It is tough to gauge how such a tiebreaker will come out because all teams on all of the tied teams' schedules still have games left, making the QoW score vulnerable to several swings.  However, with only one or two games left for every team, there is a lot more certainty.

Springfield
-------------
Current QoW: 11.375
Opponents Left:  vs Hartwick, at Norwich
QoW with Two Wins:  10.800

Ithaca
--------
Current QoW:  9.286
Opponents Left:  at Alfred, at Cortland
QoW with Two Wins:  10.333

SJF
----
Current QoW:  10.667
Opponent Left:  at Alfred
QoW with Win:  10.900

Now, we must take into account how vulnerable each of these QoW indices are to swings.  Two E8 teams could affect each of the tied teams' QoW, but each of these two teams would have an equal across-the-board effect on the QoW.  Thus, we can ignore the Utica and Hartwick effects.

The non-E8 teams that could have an effect are as follows:

For Ithaca:  Buffalo State (Could Add 0.222)

For Springfield:  Montclair (Could Add 0.200)

For SJF: King's (Could Add 0.200), Rochester (Could Subtract 0.200), Mt. Ida (Could Add OR Subtract 0.200)

From this, the following observations can be made.  Assume the best case scenario for Ithaca -- namely, that Montclair does not add to Springfield's QoW, and Buffalo State does add to Ithaca's.  The best possible QoW for Ithaca (ignoring E8 opponent swings) would be 10.556.  The lowest possible QoW for Springfield would be 10.800.  Therefore, ITHACA CANNOT CATCH SPRINGFIELD in this three-way-tie scenario.

As for SJF, it currently appears that it has the advantage in the QoW tiebreaker.  SJF's position would be solidified this situation if:  (1) Rochester wins at least one more game, (2) King's wins both remaining games, (3) Mt. Ida wins both remaining games and (4) Montclair loses at least one game.  Essentially, since the SJF/Springfield margin would be 0.100, and each of these occurances would swing their QoW by 0.200, even a single one of the first three events, assuming the fourth event (Montclair) happened would have a marked effect.

Thus, in a three-way-tie between SJF, Ithaca and Springfield, we know that Ithaca is eliminated, SJF can still win the E8 and there cannot be a tie, as Springfield's six home games will always place it 0.100 off kilter with SJF.

[cstate19]

the players read this site.......trust me......anyway....its monday so I will throw this bombshell out and really get the board moving..........whats it gonna take for cortland to play IC in the first round of the NCAA's?

[chris7sarge]

Oh!   A region!
Thanks.  I meant someone that might make the playoffs and would be in the general area of NC.  One that might play a team from the E8 down the line.  But thanks captain obvious.

[gobombers]

Just noticed in the South Rankings, that there are 3 teams from PA, and 1 from DE.  I think that this really ends the "Can you make it in with 2 losses debate".  Those 4 teams all have pretty easy schedules remaining, and it would be my guess that if IC/Union/SJF/Rowan, etc loses an additional game, they can kiss their playoff chances goodbye (that is if they don't get an AQ).

This is the way I see the opening round of the playoffs based upon MY predicted results:

Ithaca at Hobart
W&J at Rowan
Curry at Springfield
Cortland at SJF

Remember this isn't seeding, since the committee would schedule these games to avoid long distance travel.

Some items of note:

• I think Curry at Springfield is a given.
• Cortland always plays Rowan tough at home, too bad this game is at Rowan.
• I think SJF wins over Alfred (I don't want them too, but this is the most likely option in my mind)
• I think Ithaca wins it's final 2 games
• Hobart beats Union, and the loss costs Union a trip to the playoffs
• W&J, as the lowest South Region seed located in PA, goes to Rowan in the opening round

[gobombers]

I just realized that Cortland would have two losses under my scenario, but I don't know what other East Region team the committee would pick.  RPI?  Rochester?  Union?

[maxpower]

Sarge-

http://www.d3football.com/regions.php?region=south

Looks like your best bet is Averett, in VA. No other VA teams look that good, or able to win their conference. You could always head to Salem for the Stagg Bowl though....

If you don't mind heading up to Delaware, Wesley will probably host a game. Washington & Lee is probably a bit of a hike.


Frank- nice post. Don't take the ribbing too seriously Alfred, after Saterday IC is your biggest fan.

[Frank Rossi]

I think Curry at Springfield is a given.

If Hobart wins out, I think Hobart gets the #1 seed and hosts Curry.

[xdragon58]

Now, what happens if cortland wins out? Iam guessing they will be the #1 seed in the east, how would the rest of the seedings play out?

[gobombers]

I'll have to disagree with you Frank.  Curry is a LOT closer to Springfield than Hobart.  I don't see the committee sending them 6 hours by bus when Springfield is 2 hours away.

[chris7sarge]

Max-
Thanks a lot.  I think the Stagg is a must.  I might not be here next year so I might as well take advantage.  I'd love to see one of the E8's there or even a LL team (that hurt to type).  Averett might be a possibility.  Is there anyway to bet on these games?  Does bodog post an over/under to make these games a little more interesting?  

[maxpower]

Max-
Thanks a lot.  I think the Stagg is a must.  I might not be here next year so I might as well take advantage.  I'd love to see one of the E8's there or even a LL team (that hurt to type).  Averett might be a possibility.  Is there anyway to bet on these games?  Does bodog post an over/under to make these games a little more interesting? 

Love the enthusiasm, but I think it'll be a couple years before you see anyone from the E8 or LL in the Bowl. Here's hoping, though.

[gobombers]

Now, what happens if cortland wins out? Iam guessing they will be the #1 seed in the east, how would the rest of the seedings play out?

I only see Cortland being the #1 seed if they win out, and Hobart and Wilkes lose.

[fisheralum91]

gb-
you think 3 e8 schools get in?

[gobombers]

I only see 3 e8 teams getting in if they have 1 loss each.  I think a 2nd loss would open up a team from the LL or NJAC to take the spot.

[gobombers]

Actually, I COULD see the 3rd team get in, if Cortland beats up on Rowan big time, and IC loses to Cortland close.  That could get the Bombers in.

Ithaca is that 3rd team at this point, but should they beat Alfred and Cortland, to go 9-1, with 2 wins over conference champs, I don't see them NOT making it.