FB: Empire 8

[Frank Rossi]

Opinions, but mostly facts:

- Frank Rossi is wrong if he asserted Fisher would win a three way tie in the E8.  They would get the A only if King's and Rochester win out.  Not happening.

-King's is pedestrian.  The MAC is down this year with DVU and Widener having major flaws.  They will end the year without beating any sort of decent team.

- All three E8 powerhouses will get in if they win out.  The teams are 8-0 in OOC games, including multiple convincing wins over Brockport, Union, albeit pedestrian King's, Huntingdon, and potentially Cortland.  Not too shabby.

I said the following:

"As for SJF, it currently appears that it has the advantage in the QoW tiebreaker.  SJF's position would be solidified this situation if:  (1) Rochester wins at least one more game, (2) King's wins both remaining games, (3) Mt. Ida wins both remaining games and (4) Montclair loses at least one game.  Essentially, since the SJF/Springfield margin would be 0.100, and each of these occurances would swing their QoW by 0.200, even a single one of the first three events, assuming the fourth event (Montclair) happened would have a marked effect."

SJF would be at 10.900 currently and Springfield at 10.800.  So, if two of the things listed happen, SJF would win.  Rochester need not win out -- a 6-3 record would be sufficient to prop up SJF.  If Rochester and Mt. Ida both win one more game (since Mt. Ida could deduct or add to SJF -- one win/one loss would have no effect...and Springfield can only gain 0.200 via Montclair), SJF would win the QoW battle in this scenario.  That's a fact.

I also stated I'll discuss the 3-teams-in scenario tomorrow.  I think you MAY be right -- although it's not 100% yet.

[pg04]

Ithaca had no problems stopping the triple option....

Goodness I shouldn't have said that! 

The definitely didn't, their defense played a great game - that just supports my coaching comment. I believe Ithaca was much better prepared, and that can be attributed to their coaching staff.

Coaching has never been Fisher's strongpoint, so I'll agree with you there, and I'll boost your karma as well...it seems easier to slip into negative these days. 

[Tags]

Opinions, but mostly facts:

- Frank Rossi is wrong if he asserted Fisher would win a three way tie in the E8.  They would get the A only if King's and Rochester win out.  Not happening.

-King's is pedestrian.  The MAC is down this year with DVU and Widener having major flaws.  They will end the year without beating any sort of decent team.

- All three E8 powerhouses will get in if they win out.  The teams are 8-0 in OOC games, including multiple convincing wins over Brockport, Union, albeit pedestrian King's, Huntingdon, and potentially Cortland.  Not too shabby.

I said the following:

"As for SJF, it currently appears that it has the advantage in the QoW tiebreaker.  SJF's position would be solidified this situation if:  (1) Rochester wins at least one more game, (2) King's wins both remaining games, (3) Mt. Ida wins both remaining games and (4) Montclair loses at least one game.  Essentially, since the SJF/Springfield margin would be 0.100, and each of these occurances would swing their QoW by 0.200, even a single one of the first three events, assuming the fourth event (Montclair) happened would have a marked effect."

SJF would be at 10.900 currently and Springfield at 10.800.  So, if two of the things listed happen, SJF would win.  Rochester need not win out -- a 6-3 record would be sufficient to prop up SJF.  If Rochester and Mt. Ida both win one more game, SJF would win the QoW battle in this scenario.  That's a fact.

Obviously I'm all for Fisher winning the QOW - but I'm having a hard time following the logic that leaves a very good Ithaca team out of the running after their win vs. Springfield Saterday???

[Tags]

Ithaca had no problems stopping the triple option....

Goodness I shouldn't have said that! 

The definitely didn't, their defense played a great game - that just supports my coaching comment. I believe Ithaca was much better prepared, and that can be attributed to their coaching staff.

Coaching has never been Fisher's strongpoint, so I'll agree with you there, and I'll boost your karma as well...it seems easier to slip into negative these days. 

Thanks - much appreciated ... not sure how I managed to pull that off.

[Frank Rossi]

Opinions, but mostly facts:

- Frank Rossi is wrong if he asserted Fisher would win a three way tie in the E8.  They would get the A only if King's and Rochester win out.  Not happening.

-King's is pedestrian.  The MAC is down this year with DVU and Widener having major flaws.  They will end the year without beating any sort of decent team.

- All three E8 powerhouses will get in if they win out.  The teams are 8-0 in OOC games, including multiple convincing wins over Brockport, Union, albeit pedestrian King's, Huntingdon, and potentially Cortland.  Not too shabby.

I said the following:

"As for SJF, it currently appears that it has the advantage in the QoW tiebreaker.  SJF's position would be solidified this situation if:  (1) Rochester wins at least one more game, (2) King's wins both remaining games, (3) Mt. Ida wins both remaining games and (4) Montclair loses at least one game.  Essentially, since the SJF/Springfield margin would be 0.100, and each of these occurances would swing their QoW by 0.200, even a single one of the first three events, assuming the fourth event (Montclair) happened would have a marked effect."

SJF would be at 10.900 currently and Springfield at 10.800.  So, if two of the things listed happen, SJF would win.  Rochester need not win out -- a 6-3 record would be sufficient to prop up SJF.  If Rochester and Mt. Ida both win one more game, SJF would win the QoW battle in this scenario.  That's a fact.

Obviously I'm all for Fisher winning the QOW - but I'm having a hard time following the logic that leaves a very good Ithaca team out of the running after their win vs. Springfield Saterday???

Basically, the horse race comes down to the non-league opponents, since there is no round-robin in the E8.  Ithaca's are slightly underperforming this year (Buffalo State and Brockport -- Cortland is obviously better, but cannot offset how bad these two are).  Springfield's are slightly better than Ithaca's (Montclair, Brockport and Husson -- Husson is a benefit to Springfield here).  SJF's are currently looking better than Springfield's, but it can change (King's, Mt. Ida and Rochester).  Ithaca's and Springfield's non-league opponent points are pretty stable because of how the calculations are done (trust me on this point).  SJF's are close enough to the borderlines, that its QoW could change markedly still.  That's why we aren't 100% sure quite yet who wins the QoW race.

Frank

[tecmobowler]

If all three teams win out, lots will depend on how many one loss C eligible teams are left.

The committee is not going to take a two loss team like Union or Widener, just to avoid having three teams from one conference.  

That being said, if there are more than seven one loss teams, I could see them taking a one-loss team from the south or north with a lower QOWI to avoid the three team scenario.  

[Frank Rossi]

If all three teams win out, lots will depend on how many one loss C eligible teams are left.

The committee is not going to take a two loss team like Union or Widener, just to avoid having three teams from one conference.  

That being said, if there are more than seven one loss teams, I could see them taking a one-loss team from the south or north with a lower QOWI to avoid the three team scenario.  

That's ridiculous.  They'll just move the brackets around.  They'll still pick the best teams in their view.  The NCAA is cheap, but not THAT cheap -- plus, they've had cost savings from a lack of travel payments over the last couple years.  This doesn't mean there isn't a midwestern bias, but that still means they view THOSE teams as the best.

[Tags]

If all three teams win out, lots will depend on how many one loss C eligible teams are left.

The committee is not going to take a two loss team like Union or Widener, just to avoid having three teams from one conference.  

That being said, if there are more than seven one loss teams, I could see them taking a one-loss team from the south or north with a lower QOWI to avoid the three team scenario.  

That's what I worry about - I hope the committe picks teams based on who really deserves to be in, and not based on how they would look by God forbid picking 3 teams from one conference.

[tecmobowler]

Right, but I think you're missing what I'm saying (Frank).  

If there are 8 one loss teams that dont win their conference, three E8 bids may be tough.

If there are 7 one loss teams that dont win their conference, we'll be fine.

[pg04]

Yes they are that cheap...

And also Brockport doesn't hurt or help any of the 3 teams...they ALL played the golden eagles...In fact, It's Possible Brockport an still make it to 5-5, and help all 3 teams against other C candidates? Does getting to .500 help or does it have to be over .500

[Frank Rossi]

Right, but I think you're missing what I'm saying (Frank).  

If there are 8 one loss teams that dont win their conference, three E8 bids may be tough.

If there are 7 one loss teams that dont win their conference, we'll be fine.

I'll agree there, except for this:  take a look at Baldwin-Wallace in the OAC.  I think that if they beat Capital, we may have a mess on our hands -- the Committee MAY pick a two-loss B-W team over a one-loss East team and ship them to the East bracket.

[tecmobowler]

So if Fisher would need 2 of the 4 scenarios...

1) Rochester wins at least one more game,

Will be tough.  Home against RPI, on the road at Hobart.  Probably needs to happen this week.

(2) King's wins both remaining games,

Little chance.  They'll probably beat FDU, but will be double digit underdogs against Wilkes.

(3) Mt. Ida wins both remaining games

Perhaps.  They're probably a six point underdog vs. WPI.  Should beat Marytime.

(4) Montclair loses at least one game.

at Willy P and West Conn.  Who knows.  Montclair has been a hard team to predict in the past.  Bit of a question mark what team shows up.  

[Tags]

Right, but I think you're missing what I'm saying (Frank).  

If there are 8 one loss teams that dont win their conference, three E8 bids may be tough.

If there are 7 one loss teams that dont win their conference, we'll be fine.

I'll agree there, except for this:  take a look at Baldwin-Wallace in the OAC.  I think that if they beat Capital, we may have a mess on our hands -- the Committee MAY pick a two-loss B-W team over a one-loss East team and ship them to the East bracket.

Doubtful that Capital loses that game though ... I hope!

[Frank Rossi]

So if Fisher would need 2 of the 4 scenarios...

1) Rochester wins at least one more game,

Will be tough.  Home against RPI, on the road at Hobart.  Probably needs to happen this week.

(2) King's wins both remaining games,

Little chance.  They'll probably beat FDU, but will be double digit underdogs against Wilkes.

(3) Mt. Ida wins both remaining games

Perhaps.  They're probably a six point underdog vs. WPI.  Should beat Marytime.

(4) Montclair loses at least one game.

at Willy P and West Conn.  Who knows.  Montclair has been a hard team to predict in the past.  Bit of a question mark what team shows up.  

Technically, if Mt. Ida wins one more game and one of the other three things happen, SJF wins.  So, if you feel Maritime is an easy win, then it's a little easier for them to hold on.

[pg04]

Right, but I think you're missing what I'm saying (Frank).  

If there are 8 one loss teams that dont win their conference, three E8 bids may be tough.

If there are 7 one loss teams that dont win their conference, we'll be fine.

I'll agree there, except for this:  take a look at Baldwin-Wallace in the OAC.  I think that if they beat Capital, we may have a mess on our hands -- the Committee MAY pick a two-loss B-W team over a one-loss East team and ship them to the East bracket.

Doubtful that Capital loses that game though ... I hope!

Well...B-W played Mount Union better this year than Capital did...I think B-W could win, and in that scenario, a 2-loss OAC team might get the edge.