FB: Empire 8

[Frank Rossi]

Frank Rossi

Do u think that even if wilkes goes 10-0 that SC still has a shot at being the 1 seed in the east.  They have only traveled out of conference one time and their QOW is below SC's.  SC has wins against a potential three playoff teams (union, AU and SJF)

what do u think

Absolutely not.  A 10-0 Wilkes team will be the #1 seed without a doubt.  Right now, it looks to be:

1) Wilkes
2) Springfield
3) Union
4) Rowan
5) SJF
6) Cortland, if it beats Ithaca -- if not, Alfred if it beats SJF -- if Ithaca and SJF win, Ithaca
7) Hobart
8) Curry/Coast Guard winner

Note:  I would have put Hobart at 6, but the rematch is to be avoided in the First Round.  Also, if Alfred does beat SJF, then Alfred and Ithaca likely go, with Hobart moving to Number 5.  However, this assumes the NCAA does not move another team into the region...and that's not too definitive yet.

Wait, you still think IC is alive for a playoff berth?

Read the note...there's where my hedging comes in -- remember, Baldwin-Wallace would go before Ithaca if B-W beats Capital.  Averett could also be rotated in.  Wittenberg/Wabash also presents a problem since Wittenberg beat Wabash, but could win its conference with two regional losses -- making Wabash Pool C eligible.  It's far from a certainty.

[sjfcards]

Frank Rossi

Your playoff picks look good to me...I am not sure that ithaca can make it even with a win over Cortland. I think at that point a team like Del Valley or maybe an out of conference team would jump in.

I just don't see any 2 loss teams from the east getting in. Maybe if Ithaca blows out Cortland and Alfred beats Fisher...but I still think Ithaca would need some help.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank Rossi

Your playoff picks look good to me...I am not sure that ithaca can make it even with a win over Cortland. I think at that point a team like Del Valley or maybe an out of conference team would jump in.

I just don't see any 2 loss teams from the east getting in. Maybe if Ithaca blows out Cortland and Alfred beats Fisher...but I still think Ithaca would need some help.

Del Valley is in the East.  Their loss to Susquehanna is very damning -- so I think they're toast at this point.

[theoriginalupstate]

Frank Rossi

Your playoff picks look good to me...I am not sure that ithaca can make it even with a win over Cortland. I think at that point a team like Del Valley or maybe an out of conference team would jump in.

I just don't see any 2 loss teams from the east getting in. Maybe if Ithaca blows out Cortland and Alfred beats Fisher...but I still think Ithaca would need some help.

Del Valley is in the East.  Their loss to Susquehanna is very damning -- so I think they're toast at this point.

If Bart gets upset or Cortland gets knocked off watch out for a Centenial Conference team to jump in the bracket....

[Frank Rossi]

Frank Rossi

Your playoff picks look good to me...I am not sure that ithaca can make it even with a win over Cortland. I think at that point a team like Del Valley or maybe an out of conference team would jump in.

I just don't see any 2 loss teams from the east getting in. Maybe if Ithaca blows out Cortland and Alfred beats Fisher...but I still think Ithaca would need some help.

Del Valley is in the East.  Their loss to Susquehanna is very damning -- so I think they're toast at this point.

If Bart gets upset or Cortland gets knocked off watch out for a Centenial Conference team to jump in the bracket....

Who?  Dickinson?  They're not going to punish a conference champion by removing them from their logical region, I don't think.  Otherwise, no Pool C team is coming from the CC.

[theoriginalupstate]

Who?  Dickinson?  They're not going to punish a conference champion by removing them from their logical region, I don't think.  Otherwise, no Pool C team is coming from the CC.

I'm talking about the CC AQ.  Muhlenburgh came up in 2004 so if the LL and or NJAC dont have a pool C that can get in, watch out for W&J to come up and get a 5/6/7 seed....

[AUPepBand]

Either way it's a fun time to be a d3football fan right now, love the time right before playoffs

Gosh, we've been in the playoffs for two weeks now in Alfred, with Saxons facing the Fisher Cardinals in Round 3 at Merrill Field this Saterday.

[Frank Rossi]

Who?  Dickinson?  They're not going to punish a conference champion by removing them from their logical region, I don't think.  Otherwise, no Pool C team is coming from the CC.

I'm talking about the CC AQ.  Muhlenburgh came up in 2004 so if the LL and or NJAC dont have a pool C that can get in, watch out for W&J to come up and get a 5/6/7 seed....

I see what you're saying.  For those who might be confused on this one, the South has NINE potential playoff teams:

1) Wesley (Pool B)
2) Trinity (Pool A) - Plays Millsaps for Pool A bid, and could lose any slot by losing
3) Mary Hardin-Baylor (Pool A)
4) Hardin-Simmons (Pool C) - Almost a certainty with one loss
5) Carnegie-Mellon (Pool B)
6) Dickinson (Pool A)
7) Washington & Jefferson (Pool B) - Almost a certainty with one loss
8) Christopher Newport (Pool A)
9) Washington & Lee (Pool A)

Seven of these slots seem secure (Wesley, Trinity/Millsaps, MHB, CMU, Dickinson, Chris. Newport, W&L).  Therefore, unless W&J or Hardin-Simmons lose this weekend, one South team will be forced to rotate out of the region.

[theoriginalupstate]

Also what are the chances of Pool B stealing a Pool C bid if the NJAC/LL dont have pool C bids.

[boobyhasgameyo]

Frank Rossi

Do u think that even if wilkes goes 10-0 that SC still has a shot at being the 1 seed in the east.  They have only traveled out of conference one time and their QOW is below SC's.  SC has wins against a potential three playoff teams (union, AU and SJF)

what do u think

Absolutely not.  A 10-0 Wilkes team will be the #1 seed without a doubt.  Right now, it looks to be:

1) Wilkes
2) Springfield
3) Union
4) Rowan
5) SJF
6) Cortland, if it beats Ithaca -- if not, Alfred if it beats SJF -- if Ithaca and SJF win, Ithaca
7) Hobart
8) Curry/Coast Guard winner

Note:  I would have put Hobart at 6, but the rematch is to be avoided in the First Round.  Also, if Alfred does beat SJF, then Alfred and Ithaca likely go, with Hobart moving to Number 5.  However, this assumes the NCAA does not move another team into the region...and that's not too definitive yet.

Frank,

Interesting you would put Rowan in the 4 and Fisher in the 5, giving Rowan the home game even though this is all assuming Fisher ends the season with one loss.  I think Fisher has had more decisive victories this year and deserves to be ranked ahead, especially if they win this weekend.  Also say if Ithaca dismantles Cortland this weekend, wouldn't that be a factor in determining seeding since Rowan barely beat them? Maybe not an official criteria but I mean they have to look at it.  I say all of this because when it comes down to it I don't want to drive down to freaking New Jersey, that suckkkssss.  

Also I hope i'm not doing all of these scenarios for nothing if Fisher doesn't win this weekend, pleaaase win

[AUPepBand]

How do you guys think the AU receivers will stack up against the Fisher defensive backs?  I know Alfred has a good passing game who are their big play receivers this year?  I know Fisher is strong in the secondary with Stepnick, Miranto, and Norton. 

Alfred's big play receivers are Manzer, Bork, Gibbins, Riley, Chase, Hendrix, Wiacek, O'Brien, Newsome and Kryder....whoever Keeley happens to find open. Am sure Keeley would throw it to AUPepBand were he open, but it's tough to get open carrying a bass drum. Suggest the Cardinals double-team the drummer, just to be safe.

[Frank Rossi]

Also what are the chances of Pool B stealing a Pool C bid if the NJAC/LL dont have pool C bids.

I sincerely have a problem with a 4-2 Linfield (in-region) getting the nod ahead of some normally looked at Pool C teams with better QoWs and in-region records.  I think W&J would sit home if it came down to the Linfield-obsession people seem to have around here.

[FisherAlum05]

I agree with Booby totally.  Frank, if Fisher wins at AU this weekend they slip into the 4 seed and an opening round home game.  No way Rowan is put ahead of Fisher since Fisher has more quality wins (especially if UofR wins this weekend) and only one loss to SC.  Obviously we have to beat AU first though... it would suck to travel in the 1st round with a 9-1 record!

[theoriginalupstate]

How do you guys think the AU receivers will stack up against the Fisher defensive backs?  I know Alfred has a good passing game who are their big play receivers this year?  I know Fisher is strong in the secondary with Stepnick, Miranto, and Norton. 

Alfred's big play receivers are Manzer, Bork, Gibbins, Riley, Chase, Hendrix, Wiacek, O'Brien, Newsome and Kryder....whoever Keeley happens to find open. Am sure Keeley would throw it to AUPepBand were he open, but it's tough to get open carrying a bass drum. Suggest the Cardinals double-team the drummer, just to be safe.

Is every AU reciever a "Big Play" reciever?

[Frank Rossi]

I agree with Booby totally.  Frank, if Fisher wins at AU this weekend they slip into the 4 seed and an opening round home game.  No way Rowan is put ahead of Fisher since Fisher has more quality wins (especially if UofR wins this weekend) and only one loss to SC.  Obviously we have to beat AU first though... it would suck to travel in the 1st round with a 9-1 record!

I would agree, except for this relative-positioning certain polls are showing.  The Regional Poll this week may give us a little more guidance on this, but it's also not the word of God.  I toyed with putting Rowan ahead of Union based on this stupidity, but I would think that a comparison of the teams' losses would make some sense here.  Also, if Hobart wins out, then Union has another playoff team that was on its schedule (Springfield and Hobart).  It's a tough balance though, based on these damned Top 25 polls that seem to have hard-ons for teams that underperform in a specific year.  

Sorry, Pat, but it's failing to reflect the reality of the scores and game-play this year.  Rowan loses to a below-par Montclair and sees a minor drop.  Union loses to a strong Springfield team and took seven weeks to revisit the Top 25 at all?  The thing is that the Committee DOES read what D3Football.com writes and reflects in this respect.   That's why I do place Rowan at 4 and SJF at 5.