FB: Empire 8

[pg04]

By the way Edwards is probably going to lose the game for the bills for the second game in a row with that INT. 

[AUKaz00]

I really don't think Hartwick will get by Springfield personally....Don't think the Hartwick coaches have figured out how to stop that whole option thing.  


Since Springfield joined the E8

2004

Springfield  42
Hartwick  14


2005

Springfield  59
Hartwick  35


2006

Springfield  44
Hartwick  20



So Hartwick hasn't held Springfield below 40 yet.  I think Springfield will find a way to win and effectively end Hartwick's chances.  

You may be right that Springfield puts up 40 again this year, but Hartwick could score just as much.  The Wick O is legitimately fiesty and the toughest to contain that the Alfred D has faced all year.

Oh, and +Kaz00 right back at you booby!

[chris7sarge]

I really don't think Hartwick will get by Springfield personally....Don't think the Hartwick coaches have figured out how to stop that whole option thing. 


Since Springfield joined the E8

2004

Springfield  42
Hartwick  14


2005

Springfield  59
Hartwick  35


2006

Springfield  44
Hartwick  20



So Hartwick hasn't held Springfield below 40 yet.  I think Springfield will find a way to win and effectively end Hartwick's chances. 

Wick also hadn't beaten SJF or IC in the last three years either.  Wick hadnt done anything in the last 3 years.  Granted, those numbers are alarming if you are a Wick fan, but there few similarities between this year's Wick and the last 3 years except for they wear same uniforms.

[pg04]

Let's See if Edwards can throw another INT to really give the game away.    Edwards with 1 TD and 4 ints on the season...

[Frank Rossi]

Let's simplify the OWP logic for a potential tie-breaker for E8 champ.  The current numbers do not include the winning percentages of the teams which have yet to be played.  For Alfred, that is Hobart, Ithaca and Fisher - 3 teams with winning records which means regardless of how Alfred fairs against those teams, their OWP will rise.

In a scenario where Alfred, Fisher and Hartwick all finish with 1 conference loss, the results of the E8 will be a complete wash for all 3 teams with the exception that currently Hartwick gains a game in OWP on Alfred and Fisher because of their loss to WNE while Alfred and Fisher have not lost OOC (they lose that edge in WNE's winning percentage, but to simplify the math make it +1 Wick, -1 AU and Fisher).

Since conference records are a wash for all three teams, the difference in OWP for all three will be determined by the winning percentages of their OOC competitors.  So, we only need to add up the records of each team's OOC opponents, subtract the result of their meeting with each other and add in the difference from the last paragraph.

The current results of that calculation are: Alfred's OOC: 14-12, Fisher's OOC: 9-15, Wick's OOC: 9-18.  Add in the difference from paragraph 2 and we're currently at Alfred: 14-13, Fisher: 9-16, Wick 10-18.  The only changes to these will be the results of the OOC teams in the last 3 weeks of the season.

Using the OWP for tie-breaking a Pool C bid would require adding the E8 records in to compare to other conferences.  So, from this analysis it would seem that Alfred is currently in the driver's seat of the 3-way tie-breaker as well.

On Saxon Warriors and on Hartwick Hawks!

Alfred
-------
Thiel    (2 Games Remaining) 2-6 --> 2-5
SLU      (3 Games Remaining) 2-4 --> 2-3
Husson   (1 Game Remaining)  5-3 --> 5-2
Hobart   (2 Games Remaining) 5-2 --> 5-2 **

Alfred's Adjusted OOC W/L:   14-12

(** - Hobart's game remaining against Alfred subtracted from "Games Remaining" total as it is a nullity)

SJF
----
King's   (3 Games Remaining) 0-7 --> 0-6
Buff St. (3 Games Remaining) 2-5 --> 2-4 **
Roch.    (3 Games Remaining) 4-3 --> 4-2
Brock.   (3 Games Remaining) 3-4 --> 3-3 **

SJF's Adjusted OOC W/L:      9-15

(** - Buffalo State and Brockport play each other in the final week of the season -- This has not been accounted for in the Adjusted W/L)

Hartwick
-----------
WNE      (2 Games Remaining) 2-6 --> 1-6
Husson   (1 Game Remaining)  5-3 --> 5-2
Becker   (2 Games Remaining) 1-6 --> 1-5
Mt. Ida  (2 Games Remaining) 2-6 --> 2-5

Hartwick's Adjusted OOC W/L: 9-18 (Adjusted to 10-17 based on its better in-conference SoS)


Some observations:

1) Since Alfred and Hartwick share Husson as a common opponent, the worst that Alfred's comparative W/L could be vs. the best that Hartwick's could be is 14-19 vs. 16-17 (plus the Husson result).  Because of this, any three wins by Thiel, SLU or Hobart (excluding vs. Alfred) and/or any three losses by WNE, Becker or Mt. Ida (or any combination of three of those) would mean that Hartwick could not win the SoS tiebreaker.

2) SJF has the most leeway left in its OOC SoS, as its OOC opponents have 10 games remaining, when Brockport and Buff. St.'s head-to-head game is thrown out.  Alfred has 8, while Hartwick has just 7.

3) King's, should it finish 0-10, could almost single-handedly cost SJF the tiebreaker, as this would put SJF right at the Hartwick numbers (10-19, with the best finish being 17-19).

[AUKaz00]

Frank,
  If you'll notice, I calculated the same OOC numbers as you, but then we need to adjust the OWP numbers to reflect that AU and SJF will have an extra loss in an 8-2 Hartwick than Hartwick would have if both AU and SJF finish 9-1.  That's the only difference in my final tally.

EDIT: Just saw you updated your post.  Nice work on the remaining differences in OOC records for each team.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I really don't think Hartwick will get by Springfield personally....Don't think the Hartwick coaches have figured out how to stop that whole option thing. 


Since Springfield joined the E8

2004

Springfield  42
Hartwick  14


2005

Springfield  59
Hartwick  35


2006

Springfield  44
Hartwick  20



So Hartwick hasn't held Springfield below 40 yet.  I think Springfield will find a way to win and effectively end Hartwick's chances. 

Wick also hadn't beaten SJF or IC in the last three years either.  Wick hadnt done anything in the last 3 years.  Granted, those numbers are alarming if you are a Wick fan, but there few similarities between this year's Wick and the last 3 years except for they wear same uniforms.

Yeah no doubt their offense is potent but I don't think their defense is a sight to behold... That was mainly what I was getting it.   SJF knows first hand if you can't stop Springfield and they get going....It will have a snowball effect and they will just keep rolling, next thing you know you lose 55-38 and a certain somebody has 7 rushing touchdowns and you are still sad about it  

[Frank Rossi]

Frank,
  If you'll notice, I calculated the same OOC numbers as you, but then we need to adjust the OWP numbers to reflect that AU and SJF will have an extra loss in an 8-2 Hartwick than Hartwick would have if both AU and SJF finish 9-1.  That's the only difference in my final tally.

Gotcha.  I'll amend mine, but only by giving Hartwick an extra win and one less loss, since there is no need to add games to the tally -- that could throw off the percentages.

[chris7sarge]

I know that sometimes I post on here and sound moody and bitchy.  But all these numbers- they hurt my head.  Being an AU fan, I dont really care about any of the numbers.  There is only one factor that you need to know- just win.  If you do that, you're in.  SOS and OOC and SQ's, and AQ's and STDs, they dont mean anything if you win, except for that last one.  That matters.

[AUKaz00]

I know that sometimes I post on here and sound moody and bitchy.  But all these numbers- they hurt my head.  Being an AU fan, I dont really care about any of the numbers.  There is only one factor that you need to know- just win.  If you do that, you're in.  SOS and OOC and SQ's, and AQ's and STDs, they dont mean anything if you win, except for that last one.  That matters.

Good point Sarge.  I too hope that AU can just keep winning and all of these numbers are worthless.  However, for us dataheads, trying to make sense off all the permutations is actually quite enjoyable.  Plus it helps to eliminate all of the misinformation and confusion about the what if scenarios.

[pg04]

Now we watch as the ravens easily come down the field and score, because the offense couldn't muster any yards. 

[Frank Rossi]

I know that sometimes I post on here and sound moody and bitchy.  But all these numbers- they hurt my head.  Being an AU fan, I dont really care about any of the numbers.  There is only one factor that you need to know- just win.  If you do that, you're in.  SOS and OOC and SQ's, and AQ's and STDs, they dont mean anything if you win, except for that last one.  That matters.

Good point Sarge.  I too hope that AU can just keep winning and all of these numbers are worthless.  However, for us dataheads, trying to make sense off all the permutations is actually quite enjoyable.  Plus it helps to eliminate all of the misinformation and confusion about what the ifs.

Taking that a step further, it also allows us to test the NCAA's new toy (SoS criterion) to see how it may/may not be a good indicator of teams' relative strengths.  I pointed out the King's issue in the SJF numbers because it seems somewhat disingenuous to have King's tug on SJF's SoS soo heavily, especially if they finish 0-10.  I think we could argue, by merely looking at the OOC opponents that Alfred has one quality opponent (Hobart), two moderate opponents (Thiel and SLU) and one low-to-moderate opponent (Husson).  On the other hand, SJF has arguably two quality opponents (Buff. St. and Brockport), one moderate opponent (Rochester) and one low-to-moderate opponent (King's).  Yet, King's could make the difference and sink SJF.

[pg04]

Wow, the Baltimore offense is more inept than Buffalo's!

[Tags]

Let's See if Edwards can throw another INT to really give the game away.    Edwards with 1 TD and 4 ints on the season...

Losman is in his 4th year, and still put up worse numbers than Edwards is as a rookie. Hopefully he's polishing his resume.

85 yards a game from a 2nd year starter isn't going to cut it... even with the Bills.

[AUKaz00]

I know that sometimes I post on here and sound moody and bitchy.  But all these numbers- they hurt my head.  Being an AU fan, I dont really care about any of the numbers.  There is only one factor that you need to know- just win.  If you do that, you're in.  SOS and OOC and SQ's, and AQ's and STDs, they dont mean anything if you win, except for that last one.  That matters.

Good point Sarge.  I too hope that AU can just keep winning and all of these numbers are worthless.  However, for us dataheads, trying to make sense off all the permutations is actually quite enjoyable.  Plus it helps to eliminate all of the misinformation and confusion about what the ifs.

Taking that a step further, it also allows us to test the NCAA's new toy (SoS criterion) to see how it may/may not be a good indicator of teams' relative strengths.  I pointed out the King's issue in the SJF numbers because it seems somewhat disingenuous to have King's tug on SJF's SoS soo heavily, especially if they finish 0-10.  I think we could argue, by merely looking at the OOC opponents that Alfred has one quality opponent (Hobart), two moderate opponents (Thiel and SLU) and one low-to-moderate opponent (Husson).  On the other hand, SJF has arguably two quality opponents (Buff. St. and Brockport), one moderate opponent (Rochester) and one low-to-moderate opponent (King's).  Yet, King's could make the difference and sink SJF.

I think Husson doesn't get enough credit because of the age of their program.  I know the score doesn't reflect it, but Husson was definitely the best defense that Alfred has faced so far this year.  I would be more inclined to put Husson in the "moderate opponent" category and move both Thiel and SLU down to the "low-to-moderate opponent" category.  

I do understand your point however and that's what leads me to believe that the OOWP should be calculated in to SoS.  Double weighting of OWP to OOWP makes the most sense and is still quite easy to calculate.