FB: Empire 8

[Jonny Utah]

Yeah its a mess again...

SJF would make it alot easier on everyone if they would stop losing to teams like Hartwick and Norwich....

Ithaca would make it a lot easier if they stopped losing to SJF....

[Frank Rossi]

I think that many of you said it correctly---If Fisher loses to Salisbury on Saterday---ECAC's it is.
There was little room for error in the schedule and with the loss to wick---and yes they should have wont that game--fisher needs to win out just to get a chance to get in.
Anything else spells ecac and is disappointing.

Actually, a loss to Salisbury really has no bearing on Fisher's playoff chances unless Hartwick somehow wins out...

SJFisher fans can be a bit more optimistic about the Cardinals' chances against Salisbury.  From the "2008 Year-in-Review Board," this just in:

. . . not the kind of Year-in-Review moment you want to see in the headlines:

7 (Including 5 Salisbury U football players) Arrested in Salisbury Nightclub Brawl

I just read the story and then looked at the schools web site.  3 of the 5 started on Defense in the Del Valley game and a 4th had 5 tackles in the game.  That is a serious blow to the defense.

The follow-up question though, is whether a win against Salisbury would then be considered suspect if the secondary considerations are used to evaluate SJF's Pool C candidacy.  This of course is all moot if SJF wins the AQ, but I don't understand how anyone wins that in the E8 this year.  Theoretically, Springfield and Norwich could still win the AQ.

This is one of those situations that wouldn't necessarily be known by the Committee, especially over a month later, when making determinations.  It's a fringe story for now that only a handful would even care about nationally.  The broader question is as to whether the Salisbury team will be as successful in upcoming games if they are forced to expel or bench the players due to this news.  Losses by Salisbury would obviously hinder any SoS.

It's my belief that either SJF wins the E8 or doesn't get in this year -- I mean, this assumes Hartwick loses one game, but SJF controls its own destiny should Hartwick lose.  Thus, it's either win the E8 or go 7-3 overall -- and 7-3 is highly unlikely to garner any school a Pool C bid this or any other year when the losses are all in region and Salisbury is considered out of region (6-3 in-region, therefore).  If you really believe Hartwick will run the table, then fine -- somehow factor this game into SJF playoff scenarios.  However, the Salisbury game seems to place only playoff positioning into question, assuming SJF can even get into the playoffs this year via the E8 AQ.

[Edit:  Pat and I were just discussing MUC/SJF -- my mistake in that I thought it was in-region, but it is a 294-mile distance, with 200 being the maximum when considering the regional nature of a game.  So, if SJF were to not run the table in the E8, they would be 6-2 in-region -- I still don't think that'd be enough to win a Pool C slot, especially since the MUC game was being ignored by me in both scenarios.  3 losses, with 1 to MUC or 2 losses without 1 to MUC gets me to the same analysis point basically.]

[theoriginalupstate]

Frank, if SJF wins out they'll have a 7-1 in region record with an 8-2 overall record...

If SJF losses to SU and no one else they'll still have a 7-1 in region record and a 7-3 overall record...

correct?

[AUKaz00]

I thought "In Region" included any schools within 500 miles or in the pre-defined NCAA Regions.

EDIT: The 500 mile thing is obviously not right just by looking at Brockport's In-Region record from last year.  I must have gotten the flight requirement rule mixed up with the In-Region criteria.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank, if SJF wins out they'll have a 7-1 in region record with an 8-2 overall record...

If SJF losses to SU and no one else they'll still have a 7-1 in region record and a 7-3 overall record...

correct?

You missed my point.  Assume Hartwick loses one game.  SJF controls its own destiny in the E8.  Thus, the Pool C bid analysis is moot at that point.  I think very few people think Hartwick runs the table from here on out, so I continue my analysis.

If SJF doesn't win the E8, that means they lose a second in-region game.  Regardless of the Salisbury result, the best SJF finishes without the AQ (and assuming one Hartwick loss) is 6-2 in-region.  This ignores the MUC game since MUC is out of region.  Thus, 6-2 in-region SJF would be vying for a Pool C bid since we're assuming it has:  A) lost another E8 game; and B) doesn't still find a way to win the E8 at two league losses.  My point is that a 6-2 (7-3 or 6-4 overall) team would have a tough time winning a Pool C bid without a really quality win to prop up their SoS in the longrun.  Ithaca is a good win, yes, assuming Ithaca keeps winning.  Alfred would be a good win, too, assuming Alfred keeps winning.  However, 6-2 will be placed against several 7-2 teams in Pool C. 

They have a big hurdle if that's how the season plays out.  Thus, again, I view Salisbury as a playoff positioning game instead of a playoff-creating game for SJF -- I'm hard-pressed to see SJF being a serious Pool C contender based on this, barring a real upheaval nationally in 1- and 2-loss teams nationally vying for Pool C bids.

[dewcrew88]

Let me stir up the homer juice:

I think Utica could beat Hartwick. It's definitely going to be a tough road, especially at Hartwick in the "Cage", but I think they can do it.

I mean, they just beat Springfield on the road, didn't let the triple option get rolling, and held the Pride to 12 points. That's a feat.

I think they could do it.

[Frank Rossi]

Let me stir up the homer juice:

I think Utica could beat Hartwick. It's definitely going to be a tough road, especially at Hartwick in the "Cage", but I think they can do it.

I mean, they just beat Springfield on the road, didn't let the triple option get rolling, and held the Pride to 12 points. That's a feat.

I think they could do it.

Union beat Springfield, too.  Union and Utica are both 1-3.  Union went 0-3 after a Springfield win.  If Utica is hanging its hat on 2008 Springfield -- oof. 

[superman57]

lets make this simple Fisher wins out in the e8 and they are in... they lose another e8 game and they are out

[Frank Rossi]

lets make this simple Fisher wins out in the e8 and they are in... they lose another e8 game and they are out

It's not that simple due to Hartwick.  Hartwick must lose -- otherwise, we either have a head-to-head tie at 1 loss (Hartwick beats SJF) or a 3-way carousel tie with Ithaca, SJF and Hartwick (no guarantee as to how it plays out based on the SoS tiebreaker).  My explanation below assumes a Hartwick loss, but I would be remiss without explaining what happens if Hartwick wins out.

[superman57]

lets make this simple Fisher wins out in the e8 and they are in... they lose another e8 game and they are out

It's not that simple due to Hartwick.  Hartwick must lose -- otherwise, we either have a head-to-head tie at 1 loss (Hartwick beats SJF) or a 3-way carousel tie with Ithaca, SJF and Hartwick (no guarantee as to how it plays out based on the SoS tiebreaker).  My explanation below assumes a Hartwick loss, but I would be remiss without explaining what happens if Hartwick wins out.

let's say that Fisher beats Salisbury... which I think they will... and then win out the rest of this season, this will lead to big wins at home vs. Ithaca and Salisbury, and on the Road vs. Alfred... though the Alfred game might not mean a thing... then per say Ithaca and Wick win out... it goes to strength of schedule... right... and even if Fisher does not get the AQ at this point in time they will have two losses vs. 2 NCAA tourney teams and would most likely get a pool c

[Knightstalker]

If SJF and Wick tie wouldn't Wick win the E8 title based on head to head or does the E8 use a twisted and convoluted tie breaking system?

[theoriginalupstate]

If SJF and Wick tie wouldn't Wick win the E8 title based on head to head or does the E8 use a twisted and convoluted tie breaking system?

Also have to figure in IC, I dont think anyone beats IC in the E8 the rest of the way.  The same thing could be said for SJF and Wick.

We're probably looking at a 3 way tie...

[Frank Rossi]

If SJF and Wick tie wouldn't Wick win the E8 title based on head to head or does the E8 use a twisted and convoluted tie breaking system?

If head-to-head, KS, then Hartwick wins because there is the direct tiebreaker. 

If there is a 3-way carousel tie, though, to be honest, KS, we're not sure.  When the NCAA switched to the OWP and OOWP system last year, it doesn't provide an indexing like the QoW Index used to -- and the use of the numbers became a subjective determination based on raw data instead of a clearcut numbering system.  I think Pat is inquiring as to what the E8's tiebreaker for a carousel tie is -- i.e., if they took into account that the SoS component has changed into a non-indexed component. 

If it's going to be based simply on opponent's winning percentage, then that's a problem since we won't really know how those numbers will come out with clarity until November 15th after all the games -- and it doesn't necessarily reward a team's strength of OOC schedule (that's why the opponents' opponents' percentage is also looked it -- to confirm whether the OWP was an accurate figure or not when OOWPs are compared).  So, in a nutshell, in a 3-way carousel tie, we're really not sure how it plays out.

- Frank

[Frank Rossi]

lets make this simple Fisher wins out in the e8 and they are in... they lose another e8 game and they are out

It's not that simple due to Hartwick.  Hartwick must lose -- otherwise, we either have a head-to-head tie at 1 loss (Hartwick beats SJF) or a 3-way carousel tie with Ithaca, SJF and Hartwick (no guarantee as to how it plays out based on the SoS tiebreaker).  My explanation below assumes a Hartwick loss, but I would be remiss without explaining what happens if Hartwick wins out.

let's say that Fisher beats Salisbury... which I think they will... and then win out the rest of this season, this will lead to big wins at home vs. Ithaca and Salisbury, and on the Road vs. Alfred... though the Alfred game might not mean a thing... then per say Ithaca and Wick win out... it goes to strength of schedule... right... and even if Fisher does not get the AQ at this point in time they will have two losses vs. 2 NCAA tourney teams and would most likely get a pool c

I never said SJF with 1 regional loss wouldn't get a Pool C bid.  So, yes, IF Hartwick wins out... and IF SJF wins out... and IF Ithaca loses a game or SJF otherwise would lose a 1-loss E8 carousel tie, then SJF likely wins a Pool C bid.

However, again, my analysis earlier focuses on the "Hartwick loses a game" assumption -- in that scenario, I believe SJF either wins the AQ (through winning all of its remaining E8 games since it controls its own destiny in the E8 with a Hartwick loss) or plays in an ECAC game -- I don't see them winning a Pool C bid under that scenario because of a 6-2 in-region record and a lack of high-quality wins to differentiate it from other 6-2, 7-2 and 8-2 regional record teams that might be compared for the last 1 or 2 Pool C slots.

[AUKaz00]

So what Frank's really saying is that Fisher, Ithaca and Hartwick can save us all a headache by forfeiting to Alfred and thus making the October 18th Saxons-Pioneers game the default E8 Championship game...