FB: Empire 8

[Lyco80]

Non Conference Opponents:
Projected out of conference SOS

Hartwick-
WNE-2-8
Becker-2-7
MtIda-3-7

Ithaca-
Lyco: 7-3 or 8-2
Kings: 2-8 or 3-7
Cortland: 9-1 or 10-0
Frostburg: 2-7 or 3-6

SJF-
MUC: 10-0
SU: 8-2 or 9-1
BSC: 2-8 or 3-7
UR: 3-7 or 4-6

Thanks for the props US.  From my standpoint IC was lucky to get away with a win over a Warriors team with a first year coach on the road - and it was only an extra point block.  The Warriors may not end up as MAC champs but they are clearly not the fifth placed pick of the pre-season geniuses.

They may end up 9-1 too - who do you concede their losses too?

They beat Widener - the overall favorite to win the MAC.  This week they beat Albright - another team picked to finish ahead of them.

From my vantage point - here in Yokohama, Japan - their toughest opponents the rest of the way out will be the Valleys - Del and Lebanon.

Since you give them as many as three losses - who, besides IC, do they lose to the rest of the season?

ATB

[theoriginalupstate]

Non Conference Opponents:
Projected out of conference SOS

Hartwick-
WNE-2-8
Becker-2-7
MtIda-3-7

Ithaca-
Lyco: 7-3 or 8-2
Kings: 2-8 or 3-7
Cortland: 9-1 or 10-0
Frostburg: 2-7 or 3-6

SJF-
MUC: 10-0
SU: 8-2 or 9-1
BSC: 2-8 or 3-7
UR: 3-7 or 4-6

Thanks for the props US.  From my standpoint IC was lucky to get away with a win over a Warriors team with a first year coach on the road - and it was only an extra point block.  The Warriors may not end up as MAC champs but they are clearly not the fifth placed pick of the pre-season geniuses.

They may end up 9-1 too - who do you concede their losses too?

They beat Widener - the overall favorite to win the MAC.  This week they beat Albright - another team picked to finish ahead of them.

From my vantage point - here in Yokohama, Japan - their toughest opponents the rest of the way out will be the Valleys - Del and Lebanon.

Since you give them as many as three losses - who, besides IC, do they lose to the rest of the season?

ATB

I was figuring the DVC game would trip up Lyco and with the competitiveness of the MAC you never know whats going to happen...

8-2 is a distinct possibility but 7-3 is worst case scenario...

[Saxon73]

bitter--yanks nah.
i just work in oneonta a few days a week and am gettitn a little tired of the smack that i hear on that hill

I could care less about Wick, they are a one person squad...

With out Boltus they're barely above .500...

The sad thing is that SJF knows this and yet still cant find a way to stop him...

That may be...but that is like me saying that without Fehrenbach and Robinson, Fisher was only a pretty good team.  You had the players...and your team was great...we have Boltus, and are doing very well...

Not even close, you have one guy and thats it, with out him your toast...

SJF has had guys behind Noah and Mark that could make plays, with out those two SJF is still pretty damn good...

Pretty good...but not the same...

Having just gotten home from One-onta, the reality is that 'Wick does have Boltus and from seeing today's game they also have Phelan.  Boltus was under massive pressure from blitzes and often enough was able to get out to the right and deliver a pass while on the run.  Without seeing everything all the time I did see Phelan get in the open all too much.  Both of them are exceptional players.  As a side note if anyone hasn't heard, AU had the ball 1st and goal on the 9 with about 1:30 to go.  They didn't seem prepared or I just don't know what their strategy was as there seemed no sense of urgency.  Anyway, Secky got sacked going backwards and had to try long passes for the win.  It did come down to the last play set.  Congrats to Hartwick on a tough well fought win.

[HHawks]

bitter--yanks nah.
i just work in oneonta a few days a week and am gettitn a little tired of the smack that i hear on that hill

I could care less about Wick, they are a one person squad...

With out Boltus they're barely above .500...

The sad thing is that SJF knows this and yet still cant find a way to stop him...

That may be...but that is like me saying that without Fehrenbach and Robinson, Fisher was only a pretty good team.  You had the players...and your team was great...we have Boltus, and are doing very well...

Not even close, you have one guy and thats it, with out him your toast...

SJF has had guys behind Noah and Mark that could make plays, with out those two SJF is still pretty damn good...

Pretty good...but not the same...

Having just gotten home from One-onta, the reality is that 'Wick does have Boltus and from seeing today's game they also have Phelan.  Boltus was under massive pressure from blitzes and often enough was able to get out to the right and deliver a pass while on the run.  Without seeing everything all the time I did see Phelan get in the open all too much.  Both of them are exceptional players.  As a side note if anyone hasn't heard, AU had the ball 1st and goal on the 9 with about 1:30 to go.  They didn't seem prepared or I just don't know what their strategy was as there seemed no sense of urgency.  Anyway, Secky got sacked going backwards and had to try long passes for the win.  It did come down to the last play set.  Congrats to Hartwick on a tough well fought win.

Yea, it was a very hard fought victory. Alfred has a really good defense. They impressed me with the way they was able to get to Boltus today.

[theoriginalupstate]

After looking at the stats, why cant SJF get a kicker that can hit a FG?  Pierri has been horribly inaccurate this year...

FIELD GOALS     FGM-FGA  Pct 01-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-99 Lg Blk
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Chris Pierri________8-15  53.3  1-1   4-6   3-5   0-3   0-0  36   1


He's missed some relatively short kicks this year, 20 yds (UR), 25yds (Wick last week), 33yds(OT today). 

Not going to cut it...

[redswarm81]

Non Conference Opponents:
Projected out of conference SOS

Hartwick-
WNE-2-8
Becker-2-7
MtIda-3-7

Ithaca-
Lyco: 7-3 or 8-2
Kings: 2-8 or 3-7
Cortland: 9-1 or 10-0
Frostburg: 2-7 or 3-6

SJF-
MUC: 10-0
SU: 8-2 or 9-1
BSC: 2-8 or 3-7
UR: 3-7 or 4-6

And if those end up tied, it's going to be overall record, which is great for IC

As soon as Wick is eliminated in the tiebreaker, doesnt IC and SJF go back to the beginning of the tie breaking criteria to decide the winner.....

If I understand correctly, you only start over at the top if one of the tiebreakers results in a two-way tie among the three being considered.  (Which, if it were to happen with two of SJF, Wick, and IC, would be decided immediately by head-to-head results.)

If SJF, Wick, and IC all win out in conference, they are all three tied through tiebreakers 1 (h2h), 2 (record v. lowest placed conf. teams, since all three would be undefeated against all of the lower ranked teams), and 3 (common opponents - there are none).

That leaves SoS.  I think it's highly unlikely that there would be a tie between two teams' SoS.  One team will have a higher SoS than the other two, that one team with the highest SoS wins the AQ.  No need to start over, since there wouldn't be a tie between two of the three.

[Bombers798891]

Non Conference Opponents:
Projected out of conference SOS

Hartwick-
WNE-2-8
Becker-2-7
MtIda-3-7

Ithaca-
Lyco: 7-3 or 8-2
Kings: 2-8 or 3-7
Cortland: 9-1 or 10-0
Frostburg: 2-7 or 3-6

SJF-
MUC: 10-0
SU: 8-2 or 9-1
BSC: 2-8 or 3-7
UR: 3-7 or 4-6

And if those end up tied, it's going to be overall record, which is great for IC

As soon as Wick is eliminated in the tiebreaker, doesnt IC and SJF go back to the beginning of the tie breaking criteria to decide the winner.....

If I understand correctly, you only start over at the top if one of the tiebreakers results in a two-way tie among the three being considered.  (Which, if it were to happen with two of SJF, Wick, and IC, would be decided immediately by head-to-head results.)

If SJF, Wick, and IC all win out in conference, they are all three tied through tiebreakers 1 (h2h), 2 (record v. lowest placed conf. teams, since all three would be undefeated against all of the lower ranked teams), and 3 (common opponents - there are none).

That leaves SoS.  I think it's highly unlikely that there would be a tie between two teams' SoS.  One team will have a higher SoS than the other two, that one team with the highest SoS wins the AQ.  No need to start over, since there wouldn't be a tie between two of the three.

That way makes more sense to me, and frankly, works out better for the Bombers...anyone got some official word?

Re: The Hawks and Boltus: They do have Boltus, and apparently, some semblance of a defense. I was tough on the Hawks before but hey, maybe I was wrong. The point is, if I were Fisher, I would be worried about the Hawks. They've got an easier road to a conference title than the Bombers do, especially if the injury rumors I hear from IC are true. If Ithaca drops one at Alfred, SJF could be on the outside looking in. Since Fisher no longer controls their own destiny, they better be rooting for IC to run the table or someone to upset the Hawks,

Truth be told, this probably isn't the best SJF team overall. They didn't look all that dominant against UR and Buff State, and even the IC game was close till late in the 3rd. Teams sometimes go through down years. I don't think it's cause for immediate concern if I were an SJF fan. Their facilities will continue to give them a recruiting edge, and aside from IC and Alfred, no-one else in the E8 has shown they can be a year-in, year-out threat.

I guess the SJF Pool C talk gets messy now...

[msarge7]

I'm amused with the conversation that says Hartwick would be nothing without Boltus.  There's no conversation necessary, he's there.  Is he ever!  He took some serious thumps today and led his team to a win.  He's going to be awfully sore tomorrow.  As far as clock management for AU in the final drive, it was EXCELLENT!  They didn't need to be in a hurry.  They had a 2nd down at the 9with 27(?) seconds and 3 time-outs.  A score would leave Hartwick with practically no time left.  The sack on 2nd down putting them at the 17 changed things considerably.  The QB for AU will learn to throw the ball away when he's a junior and senior.  As a freshman, he tried to do too much.  He did an excellent taking his team down the field on the last drive though.  What a great game though.

[fishfan]

Just like the Hatwick game, the game against Salisbury was a players loss. Again turnovers, a missed field goal and a stupid false start in the final overtime, these are not put into any game plan that I know of. Fisher only had one running back (#22) healthy for the Salisbury game. Biehl and Brown should both be back on the game day roster vs Norwich. Fisher needs to run the table now, they wanted these games against quality teams, hopefully Hatwick slips up somehere.
With the economics of the day this might be the sunset for the Empire 8 as a strong football conference as student loans are going to dry up. Hatwick will be lucky to win 3 games in '09.

[fishfan]

Sorry I mean, Hartwick. I'm in a hurry for my 9am tee time.

[Yanks 99]

I think all of the talk about the AQ is a little early...there is still a lot of football left.  I will say this though...if' Wick wins out and somehow doesn't get the AQ, and IC does, I for one don't think it is possible for 'Wick not to get in.  8-1 team from the E8 who went to the NCAA's the previous year?  I figure we would get a pool C.  If everyone wins out there is no way we don't get a pool C bid over Fisher...who would have two more losses then us and we beat head to head (under the assumption that IC gets the AQ).

[Yanks 99]

Pep...not sure if this is true or not, but I actually have a few sources that tell me that 'Wick's pep band was better yesterday...is there any validity to that rumor?

[Frank Rossi]

Assuming SJF, IC and Wick win out, here is the tie-breaker info by the E8....

who's in?

Conference Champion
12.1.1 The team with the highest wining percentage in conference play will be
named the Empire 8 Champion and will earn the conference's automatic qualifier to the
NCAA Tournament. In the event of a tie, all tied teams will be named co or trichampions
and all schools will receive an Empire 8 Champion crystal. The following
criteria will be used to determine the E8's NCAA automatic qualifier:
(If a tie exists among three or more teams and one of the tied teams is eliminated
by this process, the process will begin anew at No. 1 of the tie-breaking criteria among
the remaining tied teams).
1. Head-to-Head results.
2. Results vs. lowest ranked conference teams (7th, 6th, 5th, etc) based on final
season standings.
3. Results versus common non-league opponents.
4. The team's overall strength of schedule index (as determined by the NCAA
OSS, opponents' strength of schedule; not OOSS, the opponents' opponents' strength of
schedule).
5. Overall record

Assuming SJF, IC and HC all win out....

The three team tiebreaker goes to the 4th elimination criteria where Hartwick is then eliminated...

Then the process goes back to the beginning with SJF and IC...

Then SJF wins the AQ because of the head-to-head with IC...

That's actually incorrect, Upstate.  There would not be a tie left after application of the fourth tiebreaker -- the best SoS would win at that point without need to reapply criteria.  Also, the NCAA's OWP SoS does not use out-of-region games (thus, the MUC and SAL games would not be included for SJF).  It's likely that Ithaca would have the best SoS based on this, unless Rochester could turn their season around for SJF.

[Saxon73]

Assuming SJF, IC and Wick win out, here is the tie-breaker info by the E8....

who's in?

Conference Champion
12.1.1 The team with the highest wining percentage in conference play will be
named the Empire 8 Champion and will earn the conference's automatic qualifier to the
NCAA Tournament. In the event of a tie, all tied teams will be named co or trichampions
and all schools will receive an Empire 8 Champion crystal. The following
criteria will be used to determine the E8's NCAA automatic qualifier:
(If a tie exists among three or more teams and one of the tied teams is eliminated
by this process, the process will begin anew at No. 1 of the tie-breaking criteria among
the remaining tied teams).
1. Head-to-Head results.
2. Results vs. lowest ranked conference teams (7th, 6th, 5th, etc) based on final
season standings.
3. Results versus common non-league opponents.
4. The team's overall strength of schedule index (as determined by the NCAA
OSS, opponents' strength of schedule; not OOSS, the opponents' opponents' strength of
schedule).
5. Overall record

Assuming SJF, IC and HC all win out....

The three team tiebreaker goes to the 4th elimination criteria where Hartwick is then eliminated...

Then the process goes back to the beginning with SJF and IC...

Then SJF wins the AQ because of the head-to-head with IC...

That's actually incorrect, Upstate.  There would not be a tie left after application of the fourth tiebreaker -- the best SoS would win at that point without need to reapply criteria.  Also, the NCAA's OWP SoS does not use out-of-region games (thus, the MUC and SAL games would not be included for SJF).  It's likely that Ithaca would have the best SoS based on this, unless Rochester could turn their season around for SJF.

Frank,  Can you shed any light on the policy and/or rationale of not using out of region games in the SoS?

[AUPepBand]

I'm amused with the conversation that says Hartwick would be nothing without Boltus.  There's no conversation necessary, he's there.  Is he ever!  He took some serious thumps today and led his team to a win.  He's going to be awfully sore tomorrow.  As far as clock management for AU in the final drive, it was EXCELLENT!  They didn't need to be in a hurry.  They had a 2nd down at the 9with 27(?) seconds and 3 time-outs.  A score would leave Hartwick with practically no time left.  The sack on 2nd down putting them at the 17 changed things considerably.  The QB for AU will learn to throw the ball away when he's a junior and senior.  As a freshman, he tried to do too much.  He did an excellent taking his team down the field on the last drive though.  What a great game though.

Can't agree with you more, Sarge. Pep admittedly was a bit panicky as the seconds ticked away, but realized, too, that giving Boltus the ball with any ticks on the clock, even had AU scored to take the lead, would leave the result in doubt. Certainly the 99-yard drive was an indicator....on third-and-long, he scrambled for a first down, then threw an 85-yard TD pass.

'Tis a shame anyone had to lose. The game was that well played by both sides. And when Boltus didn't get up that one time...Pep was hoping the best for him, and glad he went right back out there.

A half dozen Hartwick guys were standing on the hillside behind AU Pep Band's Drumline and declared, "Boltus, you're a freak!" Pep turned around, gave them a "thumbs up" and said, "He's good...but he's gonna need a couple days in a hot tub after today!"

Hats off to our Saxons on a game well played.

On Saxon Warriors!