FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

Key: 
* = Conference Leader,
- = Conference Trailer in Reg. Poll,
X = Team That Could Still Win Its Conference,
B = Pool B Team
#.### = Quality of Wins Index for that Team
W/L Records are Listed as W/L in Region, W/L Overall

ASC
------
*   Mary Hardin-Baylor   12.000   ASC   6-1, 6-1
-   Hardin-Simmons   9.667   ASC   5-1, 5-1
X   Sul Ross State   9.200   ASC   4-1, 5-1

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Likely 2 Based on Polls and Standings)

CC
----            
*   Dickinson   9.857   CC   6-1, 6-1
X   Gettysburg   8.500   CC   3-3, 4-3

Bids Likely – 1

CCIW
--------         
-   Wheaton   10.571   CCIW   6-1, 6-1
*   Augustana   10.429   CCIW   5-2, 5-2
X   North Central   9.714   CCIW   5-2, 5-2

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

E8
----            
*   Springfield   12.000   E8   7-0, 7-0
-   St. John Fisher   10.875   E8   7-1, 7-1
-   Alfred   9.857   E8   6-1, 6-1
-   Ithaca   8.167   E8   5-1, 6-1

Bids Likely – 1, 2 or 3 (Likely 2 Based on Games to Be Played)

HCAC
--------            
*   Mt. St. Joseph   10.429   HCAC   7-0, 7-0
-   Franklin   9.714   HCAC   6-1, 6-1
X   Defiance   9.143   HCAC   6-1, 6-1

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

IBC
-----            
*   Concordia (Wis.)   10.125   IBC   8-0, 8-0
X   Greenville   8.500   IBC   5-1, 5-2
X   Lakeland   8.125   IBC   4-4, 4-4

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Likely 1 Based on Ratings and Polls)

IIAC
------            
*   Central   11.667   IIAC   6-0, 7-0
-   Wartburg   10.286   IIAC   6-1, 6-1
X   Coe   8.750   IIAC   6-2, 6-2

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

LL
----            
*   Hobart   11.667   LL   6-0, 6-0
-   Union   10.000   LL   5-1, 5-1

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

MAC
-------         
*   Wilkes   11.714   MAC   7-0, 7-0
X   King's   8.857   MAC   5-2, 5-2

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Likely 1 Based on Ratings and Schedule)

MIAA
--------            
*   Hope   9.333   MIAA   4-2, 4-3
X   Alma   7.800   MIAA   3-2, 4-3
X   Olivet   6.571   MIAA   4-3, 4-3
   
Bids Likely – 1 (No Team in Polls)

MIAC
-------         
*   St. John's   10.875   MIAC   8-0, 8-0
-   Bethel   10.714   MIAC   6-1, 6-1
X   St. Thomas   9.571   MIAC   5-2, 5-2

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Likely 2 Based on Ratings and Schedule)

MWC
--------
*   St. Norbert   10.714   MWC   7-0, 8-0
X   Illinois College   7.429   MWC   6-2, 6-2

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

NCAC
--------            
*   Wooster   10.143   NCAC   6-1, 6-1
X   Wittenberg   9.500   NCAC   4-2, 4-3
X   Wabash   9.143   NCAC   5-2, 5-2
X   Oberlin   7.286   NCAC   4-3, 4-3
X   Kenyon   7.000   NCAC   3-2, 4-3

Bids Likely – 1 (Conference Has Imploded as No Frontrunner Exists)

NEFC
--------         
*   Curry   10.000   NEFC   8-0, 8-0
X   Coast Guard   9.429   NEFC   6-1, 6-1

Bids Likely – 1 (Based on History and Curry's #10 Ranking in Regional)

NJAC
--------         
*   Rowan   10.600   NJAC   4-0, 5-1
-   Cortland State   10.500   NJAC   6-0, 7-0
         
Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

OAC
-------
*   Mount Union   11.571   OAC   7-0, 7-0
-   Capital   11.286   OAC   7-0, 7-0
-   Baldwin-Wallace   9.143   OAC   5-2, 5-2

Bids Likely – 1, 2 or 3 (Likely 2 Based on Standings, Ratings and Schedule)

ODAC
---------         
*   Washington and Lee   8.714   ODAC   6-1, 6-1
X   Emory and Henry   7.000   ODAC   3-3, 4-3

Bids Likely – 1 (Based on Ratings)
Pool B
---------         
B   Wesley   12.000   Pool B   4-0, 7-0
B   Rockford   10.000   Pool B   7-0, 7-1
B   Whitworth   10.000   Pool B   6-0, 7-0
B   Linfield   9.750   Pool B   3-1, 4-2
B   Carnegie Mellon   9.500   Pool B   6-0, 7-0
B   Washington and Jefferson   9.333   Pool B   5-1, 6-1

Bids Likely – 4 (Doubtful Pool B Will Steal a Pool C Slot)

SCAC
---------         
*   Trinity (Texas)   9.857   SCAC   6-1, 6-1
X   Rhodes   8.333   SCAC   4-2, 5-2
X   Millsaps   7.571   SCAC   4-3, 4-3

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Likely 1 Based on Standings and Ratings)

SCIAC
---------            
*   Occidental   10.667   SCIAC   6-0, 6-0
X   Cal Lutheran   8.167   SCIAC   5-1, 5-1
X   Redlands   7.000   SCIAC   2-4, 2-4

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

USAC
---------            
*   Christopher Newport   10.500   USAC   6-0, 6-1
-   Averett   9.000   USAC   5-2, 5-2

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

WIAC
--------            
*   UW-Whitewater   11.833   WIAC   6-0, 7-0
-   UW-La Crosse   9.500   WIAC   3-1, 5-1

Bids Likely – 1 or 2 (Too Close to Call)

[labart96]

TGP would recommend the Lundy - TEN match up.  Rotoworld's wk 8 rankings has Lundy as the #18 RB play - above MJD.  Should be good for close to 100 yds and/or a TD.

Keyshawn is also rated as a slightly better play vs. Dallas than MM vs. SF.

However, TGP always defaults to playing RBs over WRs when able.  MJD may not getting a lot of rushing yds vs. the Eagle D but could score on a pass play.

TGP's 2 cents.

[labart96]

K+ to counselor Rossi.  Nicely done.

[dea]

Frank....What do you surmise will happen to Union IF they lose to Hobart and finish 7-2 and IF Hobart and Springfield both finish undefeated? I'm hoping Union runs the table but given how the season has gone who the hell knows what might happen.

[dewcrew88]

Fantasy Football advice time...

Need to fill 2 spots on the starting lineup
RB, WR/RB

Pick from the following guys (bye weeks are killing me!)
RB W. Lundy vs. TEN
RB M. Jones-Drew vs. PHI
WR M. Muhammed vs. SF
WR. K. Johnson vs. DAL

Hey! Wait a minute! Gro's asking for help in LLPPFFL against BC08? BC feels like he's been hornswaggled.

[labart96]

TGP thinks a 7-2 Union with losses vs. SC and HC could end up getting jobbed out of the NCAAs IF the E8 has a 9-1 SJF and an 8-2 IC (assuming they beat Cortland which would be a boost in QoW). 

['gro]

Fantasy Football advice time...

Need to fill 2 spots on the starting lineup
RB, WR/RB

Pick from the following guys (bye weeks are killing me!)
RB W. Lundy vs. TEN
RB M. Jones-Drew vs. PHI
WR M. Muhammed vs. SF
WR. K. Johnson vs. DAL

Hey! Wait a minute! Gro's asking for help in LLPPFFL against BC08? BC feels like he's been hornswaggled.

not to worry tater man, this is on gro's other team.  Miracle 'Gro is all set for a good ole whoopin on tater salad.

[Jonny Utah]

Whether they deserve it or not (the next three weeks will tell), Hobart continues to get love from the pollsters.....

East Region
No. Name        In-Region Overall
1.   Springfield 7-0           7-0
2.   Hobart      6-0            6-0
3.   Rowan      3-0            5-1
4.   Wilkes      7-0            7-0
5.   Cortland State 6-0    7-0
6.   St. John Fisher 7-1    7-1
7.   Union (New York) 5-1 5-1
8.   Alfred        6-1           6-1
9.   Ithaca       5-1           6-1
10. Curry        8-0           8-0

The placement of Union is actually most interesting to me...Above Alfred and Ithaca with one-loss records.  E8PPers will not be happy.

Im more upset that Ithaca is next to Curry in any ranking.  They should be ahead of Alfred though and below Union.  Union beat IC last year and IC beat Alfred last year.  Not too much evidence that things have changed.

[zachattack22]

KS is wondering if he should start Grossman or take a shot that Tony Romo will be the second coming of Gary Hogeboom.

KS, ZA does not like Dallas, but there's been worse QB's than Romo to take a chance on....IF...the offensive line can stop the bleeding, Romo does have the capability to play well... 

You can always yell at ZA later if it doesn't work out, but Romo isn't afraid...and that can be bad or really, really good.

[zachattack22]

TGP thinks a 7-2 Union with losses vs. SC and HC could end up getting jobbed out of the NCAAs IF the E8 has a 9-1 SJF and an 8-2 IC (assuming they beat Cortland which would be a boost in QoW). 

ZA agrees TGP...Bottom line is similar to what Lou Holtz said last night regarding Nortre Dame...Whether they are a very good team or a great team, they, like others, have the potential to beat any team...So, the only way to go is to just win out and hope for the best.   Union has the potential to beat the rest of the teams on their schedule...The question is...will they play a full 60 minutes of really great football or 30 minutes?

AND, if they only play 30 minutes of football, well, they don't deserve to go to the NCAA's.

Just ZA's humble, but forthright opinion.....

[zachattack22]

Hey Rev, make sure we communicate before the Hobart/Union game next weekend.  ZA may try to get out there the night before in order to hit up some homeless people for a winter coat.

Do you want ZA to grab you one?  What size? Let ZA know! The last time ZA was there at Hobart, they were actually checking bags and stuff...Good thing ZA's friend had his coors wrapped up with genuine pepsi labels...worked out nice!!!!

[labart96]

ZA -

Forecast for Saturday (11/4) is looking like Partly Sunny and 47.  TGP would consider packing a hipster filled with Jack Daniels to warm you up.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank....What do you surmise will happen to Union IF they lose to Hobart and finish 7-2 and IF Hobart and Springfield both finish undefeated? I'm hoping Union runs the table but given how the season has gone who the hell knows what might happen.

Well, it's a loaded, but good question, DEA...A lot really is going to depend first on those three conferences I scoped out and stated had a chance for a weird lower-team-winning-the conference scenario.  If any of those occur, then Union will very likely have to pray for a miracle for a Pool C slot with two losses.  On the other hand, we could look at the NJAC and the E8 for a second.  The Ithaca/Cortland connection has a real potent effect because, if Springfield were to beat Ithaca and Rowan were to beat Cortland, that would become an elimination game.  Thus, instead of four slots between the E8 and NJAC, we could very possibly see a collapse down to only 2 or 3 teams getting through between those two conferences.  There's a huge amount of play inside the numbers still, and that's why this proves VERY difficult to predict.

One thing to consider...Union's opponents could really make or break Union's Pool C hopes.  Currently, Union is the second-highet ranked one-loss team in the QoW standings.  However, if we assume Hobart and Springfield finish undefeated and Union loses to both, its range of potential QoW rankings goes from a low of 9.000 to a high of 11.444!  If it were to finish at the higher end of that range, then Union with two losses would have a much better chance than at the lower end of the range.  Note that only one team was ranked in the Top 8 of any region that had a QoW index below 9.7 (W&J @ 9.333).  This trend will not likely change over the next three weeks.

So, what are Union's chances with two losses to Springfield and Hobart, assuming those teams were to win out?  Probably about 20%.  This number will move over the next couple weeks (granted, the Union/Hobart matchup will do a lot to answer the questions).  However, I don't see it rising above 40%, barring some of the doomsday scenarios I've alluded to in other conferences.

[mattvsmith]

Hey Rev, make sure we communicate before the Hobart/Union game next weekend.  ZA may try to get out there the night before in order to hit up some homeless people for a winter coat.

Do you want ZA to grab you one?  What size? Let ZA know! The last time ZA was there at Hobart, they were actually checking bags and stuff...Good thing ZA's friend had his coors wrapped up with genuine pepsi labels...worked out nice!!!!

ZA,  my dear old daddy will bring me some winter outergarments to fight off the Finger Lakes chill.  No need to steal from the homeless.  (Anyway, I'm not too sure how many homeless there are in Geneva.)

The Rev shall contact thee.

[maxpower]

TGP, you watching your special on ABC right now?!