FB: Liberty League

[Regulator]

Hey RT here ia a little follow up on your VMW call

08:43  VMW VMware: Initiation details (79.31 ) 

We note VMW was initiated by many brokers this morning. Bear Stearns initiated VMW with an Outperform and a $106 tgt based on their view that the co is the right technology (x86 server virtualization) to solve a pressing need (to operate and manage IT resources more efficiently) at the right time (the technology has become generally accepted as dependable). They also cite sustainable leadership in the virtualization and sustainable meaningful mkt growth... As mentioned at 6:29, BofA initiated VMW with a Neutral and a $75 tgt saying it's a leading provider (~90% share) of virtualization software, a thinly penetrated (<5%), high growth mkt in tech that allows multiple op systems and apps to run simultaneously on the same piece of hardware... Also mentioned, Deutsche Bank initiated VMW with a Hold and an $80 tgt. They note, while VMW is the clear leader in the virtualization sector and is positioned for strong revenue and earnings growth, they believe the share price already reflects much of this opportunity... VMW was also initated at Wachovia with a Market Perform and a $70-75 tgt, UBS with a Buy, Citigroup with a Buy and a $100 tgt, Credit Suisse with a Neutral and a $85 tgt and J.P Morgan with an Overweight.

hopefully folks got in when RT dropped the tip when it was in the $60's

Unbeknownst to U89, his broker got him in on 500 shares at $26 a couple months ago.

Reg wants to work with your broker since the 52 week low is $48 bucks

52Wk Low:  48.00   

[Touchdown Tommy]

Ha BUSTED U89...

[union89]

Hey RT here ia a little follow up on your VMW call

08:43  VMW VMware: Initiation details (79.31 ) 

We note VMW was initiated by many brokers this morning. Bear Stearns initiated VMW with an Outperform and a $106 tgt based on their view that the co is the right technology (x86 server virtualization) to solve a pressing need (to operate and manage IT resources more efficiently) at the right time (the technology has become generally accepted as dependable). They also cite sustainable leadership in the virtualization and sustainable meaningful mkt growth... As mentioned at 6:29, BofA initiated VMW with a Neutral and a $75 tgt saying it's a leading provider (~90% share) of virtualization software, a thinly penetrated (<5%), high growth mkt in tech that allows multiple op systems and apps to run simultaneously on the same piece of hardware... Also mentioned, Deutsche Bank initiated VMW with a Hold and an $80 tgt. They note, while VMW is the clear leader in the virtualization sector and is positioned for strong revenue and earnings growth, they believe the share price already reflects much of this opportunity... VMW was also initated at Wachovia with a Market Perform and a $70-75 tgt, UBS with a Buy, Citigroup with a Buy and a $100 tgt, Credit Suisse with a Neutral and a $85 tgt and J.P Morgan with an Overweight.

hopefully folks got in when RT dropped the tip when it was in the $60's

Unbeknownst to U89, his broker got him in on 500 shares at $26 a couple months ago.

Reg wants to work with your broker since the 52 week low is $48 bucks

52Wk Low:  48.00   

Reg, don't hate the player....hate the game....ask those who know instead of allowing your Union hatred to shine through!!

RT, care to set him straight??

[union89]

Damn, Yazz Flute gets 42 points from Westbrook!!!

Nice win...any victory party tonight?  Will there be entertainment??

[JT]

Ok last video of the day.  And its a good one of Frank Rossi trying to meet someone from the Geneva, NY Times after the Union/Hobart game two years ago.....

http://www.break.com/index/businessman-rampage-on-hotel-lobby.html

This is fantastic on so many levels.  JT would be the guy adding fuel to the fire on purpose for his own entertainment, but it did look like there was a JT type in the group.

[Frank Rossi]

Someone asked for analysis in the LL after one weekend of play -- the best I can give you is this for now:

After one week of play, here are the W/L records


WPI 4-0 (1-0)                             Hobart 1-2 (0-1)
RPI 3-0 (1-0)                             Susquehanna 1-3 (0-1)
St. Lawrence 2-1 (1-0)                    Rochester 0-3 (0-1)
Union 1-2 (1-0)                           USMMA 0-4 (0-1)


Oddly enough, if you read across, you have this week's match-ups.  In other words, the #1 team meets the #5 team, #2 meets #6, #3 meets #7 and #4 meets #8.  This also means that there is a chance that all teams could be 1-1 after this weekend in LL play, or all teams could be 2-0 and 0-2.

Some other points...Hobart's win vs. Carnegie Mellon may go for naught in terms of tiebreaker scenarios.  Just to refresh everyone's memory, the tiebreakers in the Liberty League are as follows:

1.    Head-to-head results.

2.    Comparison of records between tied institutions beginning with the lowest conference finisher and continuing through the highest conference finisher.  If more than two teams are tied, at the point one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).

3.    Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record of .500 or above.  At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).

4.    Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record below .500.  At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).

5.    Coin flip.

Carnegie Mellon's W/L record could prove key should Hobart and/or Rochester end up in a tie for the LL championship later in the season -- Right now CMU is 2-2 and would benefit Hobart and hurt Rochester if the third tiebreaker were necessary (remember, this is not rare, as it almost came into play in 2006 and did come into play in 2005 in terms of the final week of games -- RPI could have won the LL from Union in the Shooz Game even with Union at 9-0 entering that game).  Here is a chart of teams' non-conference opponents' current W/L records, where column "A" is teams above .500, column "B" is teams at .500 and column "C" is teams below .500 (and the results for the LL team in parentheses next to each):


                         A                             B                             C
WPI                      0-0                           1-0 (W v. WS)                 2-0 (W v. UMD, Becker)
RPI                      0-0                           0-0                           2-0 (W v. Becker, Utica)
SLU                      0-1 (L v. Alf)                1-0 (W v. Norwich)            0-0
UNI                      0-1 (L v. Muhl)               0-0                           0-1 (L v. Spring)
HOB*                     0-1 (L v. Dickin)             1-0 (W v. CMU)                0-0
SSQ                      0-1 (L v. Morav)              0-0                           0-2 (L v. LV, Lyc)
ROC*                     0-1 (L v. SJF)                0-1 (L v. CMU)                0-0
MMA                      0-3 (L v. Ke, CG, WP)         0-0                           0-0


* = HOB still has game vs. Alfred, ROC still has game vs. Mt. Ida

The big column for the third tiebreaker is column "B" since those teams are the swing teams right now - they sit at .500 and could swing out of a team's equation with a loss.  Some teams in column "C' could do the same with a win if they sit one game under .500.  What we learn from this is that no team seems to have a real advantage right now in the third tiebreaker after most of the out-of-conference play has concluded.  I'll keep these numbers updated as the season progresses.

So, Week 2 of LL play is going to be important in terms of either separating the men from the boys or showing the level of parity we're really in for this season.  Stay tuned...

[lewdogg11]

Enginegro,

I was just googling your stats from 007 Goldeneye, and I gotta tell you, you are my hero.  Will you marry me?  I love you...

[Frank Rossi]

Enginegro,

I was just googling your stats from 007 Goldeneye, and I gotta tell you, you are my hero.  Will you marry me?  I love you...

Take 'gro to the Shooz Game with your extra ticket then.

[Frank Rossi]

Someone asked for analysis in the LL after one weekend of play -- the best I can give you is this for now:

After one week of play, here are the W/L records


WPI 4-0 (1-0)                             Hobart 1-2 (0-1)
RPI 3-0 (1-0)                             Susquehanna 1-3 (0-1)
St. Lawrence 2-1 (1-0)                    Rochester 0-3 (0-1)
Union 1-2 (1-0)                           USMMA 0-4 (0-1)


Oddly enough, if you read across, you have this week's match-ups.  In other words, the #1 team meets the #5 team, #2 meets #6, #3 meets #7 and #4 meets #8.  This also means that there is a chance that all teams could be 1-1 after this weekend in LL play, or all teams could be 2-0 and 0-2.

Some other points...Hobart's win vs. Carnegie Mellon may go for naught in terms of tiebreaker scenarios.  Just to refresh everyone's memory, the tiebreakers in the Liberty League are as follows:

1.    Head-to-head results.

2.    Comparison of records between tied institutions beginning with the lowest conference finisher and continuing through the highest conference finisher.  If more than two teams are tied, at the point one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).

3.    Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record of .500 or above.  At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).

4.    Comparison of final winning percentage against all opponents with a record below .500.  At the point when one team has been eliminated, revert back to step 1 (head-to-head results).

5.    Coin flip.

Carnegie Mellon's W/L record could prove key should Hobart and/or Rochester end up in a tie for the LL championship later in the season -- Right now CMU is 2-2 and would benefit Hobart and hurt Rochester if the third tiebreaker were necessary (remember, this is not rare, as it almost came into play in 2006 and did come into play in 2005 in terms of the final week of games -- RPI could have won the LL from Union in the Shooz Game even with Union at 9-0 entering that game).  Here is a chart of teams' non-conference opponents' current W/L records, where column "A" is teams above .500, column "B" is teams at .500 and column "C" is teams below .500 (and the results for the LL team in parentheses next to each):


                         A                             B                             C
WPI                      0-0                           1-0 (W v. WS)                 2-0 (W v. UMD, Becker)
RPI                      0-0                           0-0                           2-0 (W v. Becker, Utica)
SLU                      0-1 (L v. Alf)                1-0 (W v. Norwich)            0-0
UNI                      0-1 (L v. Muhl)               0-0                           0-1 (L v. Spring)
HOB*                     0-1 (L v. Dickin)             1-0 (W v. CMU)                0-0
SSQ                      0-1 (L v. Morav)              0-0                           0-2 (L v. LV, Lyc)
ROC*                     0-1 (L v. SJF)                0-1 (L v. CMU)                0-0
MMA                      0-3 (L v. Ke, CG, WP)         0-0                           0-0


* = HOB still has game vs. Alfred, ROC still has game vs. Mt. Ida

The big column for the third tiebreaker is column "B" since those teams are the swing teams right now - they sit at .500 and could swing out of a team's equation with a loss.  Some teams in column "C' could do the same with a win if they sit one game under .500.  What we learn from this is that no team seems to have a real advantage right now in the third tiebreaker after most of the out-of-conference play has concluded.  I'll keep these numbers updated as the season progresses.

So, Week 2 of LL play is going to be important in terms of either separating the men from the boys or showing the level of parity we're really in for this season.  Stay tuned...

New poll that melds well with the above-quoted post...

[Senor RedTackle]

Hey RT here ia a little follow up on your VMW call

08:43  VMW VMware: Initiation details (79.31 ) 

We note VMW was initiated by many brokers this morning. Bear Stearns initiated VMW with an Outperform and a $106 tgt based on their view that the co is the right technology (x86 server virtualization) to solve a pressing need (to operate and manage IT resources more efficiently) at the right time (the technology has become generally accepted as dependable). They also cite sustainable leadership in the virtualization and sustainable meaningful mkt growth... As mentioned at 6:29, BofA initiated VMW with a Neutral and a $75 tgt saying it's a leading provider (~90% share) of virtualization software, a thinly penetrated (<5%), high growth mkt in tech that allows multiple op systems and apps to run simultaneously on the same piece of hardware... Also mentioned, Deutsche Bank initiated VMW with a Hold and an $80 tgt. They note, while VMW is the clear leader in the virtualization sector and is positioned for strong revenue and earnings growth, they believe the share price already reflects much of this opportunity... VMW was also initated at Wachovia with a Market Perform and a $70-75 tgt, UBS with a Buy, Citigroup with a Buy and a $100 tgt, Credit Suisse with a Neutral and a $85 tgt and J.P Morgan with an Overweight.

hopefully folks got in when RT dropped the tip when it was in the $60's

Unbeknownst to U89, his broker got him in on 500 shares at $26 a couple months ago.

Well...only plausible scenario RT sees is that U89's brokerage house had a block of shares set aside for them if they were one of the underwriters on the IPO. If they were in the syndicate that put up the cash, then they get preferred pricing...kind of like executive stock options. Since there's no "market" yet prior to an IPO, the $26 price is an arbitrary price. Now granted it's low risk, there still exists a risk that a stock could open on day 1 at, say, $30/share at IPO but tank to $1.00.

So, the short answer is "yes", U89 could have shares at $26.

U89...who's your broker?

[Senor RedTackle]

Hey RT here ia a little follow up on your VMW call

08:43  VMW VMware: Initiation details (79.31 ) 

We note VMW was initiated by many brokers this morning. Bear Stearns initiated VMW with an Outperform and a $106 tgt based on their view that the co is the right technology (x86 server virtualization) to solve a pressing need (to operate and manage IT resources more efficiently) at the right time (the technology has become generally accepted as dependable). They also cite sustainable leadership in the virtualization and sustainable meaningful mkt growth... As mentioned at 6:29, BofA initiated VMW with a Neutral and a $75 tgt saying it's a leading provider (~90% share) of virtualization software, a thinly penetrated (<5%), high growth mkt in tech that allows multiple op systems and apps to run simultaneously on the same piece of hardware... Also mentioned, Deutsche Bank initiated VMW with a Hold and an $80 tgt. They note, while VMW is the clear leader in the virtualization sector and is positioned for strong revenue and earnings growth, they believe the share price already reflects much of this opportunity... VMW was also initated at Wachovia with a Market Perform and a $70-75 tgt, UBS with a Buy, Citigroup with a Buy and a $100 tgt, Credit Suisse with a Neutral and a $85 tgt and J.P Morgan with an Overweight.

hopefully folks got in when RT dropped the tip when it was in the $60's

Unbeknownst to U89, his broker got him in on 500 shares at $26 a couple months ago.

Well...only plausible scenario RT sees is that U89's brokerage house had a block of shares set aside for them if they were one of the underwriters on the IPO. If they were in the syndicate that put up the cash, then they get preferred pricing...kind of like executive stock options. Since there's no "market" yet prior to an IPO, the $26 price is an arbitrary price. Now granted it's low risk, there still exists a risk that a stock could open on day 1 at, say, $30/share at IPO but tank to $1.00.

So, the short answer is "yes", U89 could have shares at $26.

U89...who's your broker?

one other thing...living inside of this industry and helping to drive large sales of these products, RT has a feel for where stuff is going and here's RT's next suggestion.....when VMW gets to $90/share, sell. It could inch higher but that's about the top end of the product.

Microsoft is starting to give their competing product away. In response, VMware is starting to give part of their core suite away (embedded on processers in Intel-based servers)...they're sacrificing revenue/profit to maintain market share.   Also, server manufacturers like IBM, HP, Dell, etc have alot of products in the pipeline that will natively be able to do inside the hardware at no additional cost what you currently pay VMWare to do.

One other tidbit....VMWare has had gleaming financial statements because for the past couple of years, they've operated as a standalone entity, even after being bought by EMC. Well, EMC's stated direction is to roll that organization into EMC and keep the "VMWare" brand as a product under EMC corporate..but not as a standalone profit/loss center.  Once those fat results get obsorbed into the big EMC organization with all that overhead, it won't be as pretty.

You heard it here first

[PBR...]

word rt.....dont get greedy u llpp freaks out there

[union89]

Hey RT here ia a little follow up on your VMW call

08:43  VMW VMware: Initiation details (79.31 ) 

We note VMW was initiated by many brokers this morning. Bear Stearns initiated VMW with an Outperform and a $106 tgt based on their view that the co is the right technology (x86 server virtualization) to solve a pressing need (to operate and manage IT resources more efficiently) at the right time (the technology has become generally accepted as dependable). They also cite sustainable leadership in the virtualization and sustainable meaningful mkt growth... As mentioned at 6:29, BofA initiated VMW with a Neutral and a $75 tgt saying it's a leading provider (~90% share) of virtualization software, a thinly penetrated (<5%), high growth mkt in tech that allows multiple op systems and apps to run simultaneously on the same piece of hardware... Also mentioned, Deutsche Bank initiated VMW with a Hold and an $80 tgt. They note, while VMW is the clear leader in the virtualization sector and is positioned for strong revenue and earnings growth, they believe the share price already reflects much of this opportunity... VMW was also initated at Wachovia with a Market Perform and a $70-75 tgt, UBS with a Buy, Citigroup with a Buy and a $100 tgt, Credit Suisse with a Neutral and a $85 tgt and J.P Morgan with an Overweight.

hopefully folks got in when RT dropped the tip when it was in the $60's

Unbeknownst to U89, his broker got him in on 500 shares at $26 a couple months ago.

Well...only plausible scenario RT sees is that U89's brokerage house had a block of shares set aside for them if they were one of the underwriters on the IPO. If they were in the syndicate that put up the cash, then they get preferred pricing...kind of like executive stock options. Since there's no "market" yet prior to an IPO, the $26 price is an arbitrary price. Now granted it's low risk, there still exists a risk that a stock could open on day 1 at, say, $30/share at IPO but tank to $1.00.

So, the short answer is "yes", U89 could have shares at $26.

U89...who's your broker?

Thank You, RT....U89 will be waiting by his mailbox for written apologies from Reg and TDT...

RT, he's an old high school buddy who works for Wachovia.

[Garnet]

13-Aug-07
19:04  VMW VMware prices initial public offering at $29 per share

Co announced that the IPO of 33,000,000 shares of its Class A Common Stock has been priced at $29 per share. Shares will begin trading tomorrow, August 14, 2007, on the NYSE under the ticker symbol "VMW".

Lead Underwriter: Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Securities, JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch Co-managers: AG Edwards, Banc of America Sec, Bear Stearns, HSBC Securities, UBS, Wachovia
Description: A provider of virtualization solutions for x86-based servers and desktops.

The original price range was 23-25 then revised to 27-29.  First trade was $55.

[PBR...]

hmmmm...lead managers on vmw listed as follows...

citi, credit suisse, deutsche, jp morgan, lehman, merrill....where might wachovia be? just bustin ya they are a co mgr...