FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

LL Playoff Update
-----------------

After last week's analysis of who was in control of their own destinies in the LL, it's time to take it a step further as we begin to enter the midpoint of the season -- what is each team's chances at ANY playoff bid.  We'll concentrate on Pool C more next week, but some preliminary analysis will follow each team here for now.  Also, remember that a team is only eligible for an ECAC bid if the team finishes .500 or better overall.  Because of the number of 0- and 1-loss teams in the NEFC currently, my projection is that, at best, a 3-loss team might be able to get into the ECACs.

Here are the current LL standings and remaining league schedules (* - denotes that Hobart (vs. Alfred) and Rochester (vs. Mt. Ida) are the only remaining non-league games on the schedule):

Team             League  Overall  10/13   10/20   10/27   11/3   11/10
----             ------  -------  -----   -----   -----   ----   -----
RPI               3-0      5-0      -      MMA    @WPI     ROC   @UNI
Union             3-0      3-2     SUS      -     @SLU     HOB    RPI     
Hobart            2-1      3-2     MMA     SLU      *     @UNI   @ROC
Rochester         2-1      2-3      *      WPI     SUS    @WPI    HOB
WPI               1-2      4-2      -     @ROC     RPI     SUS   @SLU
St. Lawrence      1-2      2-3      -     @HOB     UNI    @MMA    WPI     
Susquehanna       0-3      1-5    @UNI      -     @ROC    @WPI    MMA
Merchant Marine   0-3      0-6    @HOB    @RPI      -      SLU   @SUS


RPI (5-0, 3-0 LL)
-----------------
Pool A - RPI is in control of its own destiny and can lose to MMA or WPI without losing such control (by way of its control of the Hobart tiebreaker and third tiebreaker). 

Pool C - RPI could lose a game and almost be assured of a Pool C slot at 8-1, assuming the loss occurred to an upper-tier LL opponent (i.e., Union or Rochester).

ECACs - RPI is eligible for an ECAC bid, but would need to win two more games to virtually assure itself a slot in the ECACs.


Union (3-2, 3-0 LL)
-------------------
Pool A - Union is in control of its own destiny and can lose to SUS or SLU without losing such control (by way of its control of the Rochester tiebreaker)

Pool C - Union is not eligible for a Pool C slot, since it is in control of its own destiny for Pool A and has two losses already.  For Pool C consideration, Union would need to lose a third game, which would make it virtually impossible to enter the playoffs at-large.

ECACs - Union is two wins short of ECAC eligibility.  However, for Union to be in ECAC consideration would mean that it has a third loss -- making NEFC, E8 and LL standings crucial to determine whether it would be within the top six remaining eligible teams in Upstate NY and New England.


Hobart (3-2, 2-1 LL)
--------------------
Pool A - Hobart is not in control of its own destiny as it cannot win a two- or three-way (circular) tiebreaker against RPI based on its loss earlier this season to RPI.  Hobart must hope for two RPI losses and win out its remaining schedule.

Pool C - Hobart is the biggest Pool C puzzle this season in the LL.  As stated, Hobart could win out and miss the Pool A slot at 8-2.  For 8-2, Hobart will have to beat a strong Alfred team on 10/27.  Currently, there are 64 0- and 1-loss teams in Division 3 (excluding the NESCAC, but including the NEFC).  Thus, there could very well be room for at least one two-loss team in the tournament.  While unlikely still, it is somewhat possible for Hobart to gain consideration for a Pool C slot at 8-2.  The next three weeks will prove key in helping determine just how possible it is.

ECACs - Hobart is two wins short of ECAC eligibility.  At 8-2, should Hobart miss the playoffs, the Statesmen would be a virtual lock for an ECAC slot.  However, 7-3 might be more tricky based on the number of NEFC, E8 and LL teams that might still be in the mix with 1 or 2 losses.  Out of all the 3-loss teams, though, Hobart might get the best look depending on whether it beats Alfred later this season.


Rochester (2-3, 2-1 LL)
-----------------------
Pool A - Rochester is not in control of its own destiny as it cannot win a two-way tiebreaker against Union.  There is a possibility for a three-way (circular) tiebreaker with RPI/ROC/UNI at one loss each.  In that situation, assuming circularity in the losses, RPI would win the three-way tiebreaker.  Thus, Rochester must hope that Union loses two games and win out the remainder of its schedule for any chance at the automatic bid.

Pool C - With three losses, Rochester appears to be outside Pool C consideration this season.

ECACs - Rochester would need to win three games to become ECAC eligible.  However, it is more than likely necessary for Rochester to win all five remaining games for a 7-3 record and hope that some teams in the E8 and NEFC begin to fall apart for 3 or more losses.


WPI (4-2, 1-2 LL)
-----------------
Pool A - WPI is in trouble for Pool A consideration.  While it cannot be eliminated with a win this weekend, a loss and a Union win would all but seal WPI's Pool A fate.  It cannot get involved in a tie with both Union and Hobart, even at two losses.  While a five-way tie is possible (RPI/UNI/HOB/ROC/WPI), the best WPI could do in such a tie is somehow win through a later tiebreaker.

Pool C - WPI's strength of schedule would likely preclude it from serious Pool C consideration at 8-2 (NEFC teams and Becker comprised its non-conference schedule).

ECACs - WPI is one win away from ECAC eligibility, although it likely would need to win 3 out of its final four games for serious consideration, if not go 8-2.


St. Lawrence (2-3, 1-2 LL)
--------------------------
Pool A - Like WPI, St. Lawrence is in trouble for Pool A consideration.  Because of the bye week, St. Lawrence cannot be mathematically eliminated this weekend.  However, another league loss would likely take St. Lawrence out of Pool A contention.

Pool C - With three losses, St. Lawrence appears to be outside Pool C consideration this season.

ECACs - St. Lawrence would need to win three games to become ECAC eligible.  However, it is more than likely necessary for St. Lawrence to win all four remaining games for a 6-3 record and hope that some teams in the E8 and NEFC begin to fall apart for 3 or more losses.


Susquehanna (1-5, 0-3 LL)
-------------------------
Pool A - The only way Susquehanna could be fully eliminated from Pool A contention this weekend is by losing to Union.  Otherwise, it is still mathematically possible for Susquehanna to win Pool A.

Pool C - With five losses, Susquehanna is outside Pool C consideration this season.

ECACs - Susquehanna is a not in the Upstate NY/New England bowl region for ECAC purposes.  However, the .500 rule still applies for its region.  It would need to win out its remaining schedule for consideration, but it would likely miss the ECACs at 5-5.


Merchant Marine (0-6, 0-3 LL)
-----------------------------
Pool A - A Union win or a loss by Merchant Marine to Hobart would eliminate Merchant Marine this weekend from Pool A contention.

Pool C - With six losses, Merchant Marine is outside Pool C consideration this season.

ECACs - Merchant Marine, even in its region, is ineligible for ECAC consideration as it cannot finish better than 4-6 (below .500)

['gro]

+k for Frank for dropping some science on the LL.

[PBR...]

well done frank....easy read and lay out w/ all scenarios... +k

[lewdogg11]

Soop

Park on the side of Lenox Road, right next to the field.

I'd park in North Troy then walk.

[superman57]

Soop

Park on the side of Lenox Road, right next to the field.

thanks gro... +k

[maxpower]

Here's one for 'gro and any other Engineers out there.... I go to school at UC San Diego and was getting a tour of the computer music facilities today... one class was doing a video-conferencing-type improvisation session with musicians from Stanford and.... RPI! So I saw RPI's campus live today from 3,000 miles away.

I think this shows what a good school RPI is.... it's a wonder they have football at all.

[Senor RedTackle]

RT is back from London and Munich. Octoberfest was rediculazz...NEVER have seen anything remotely like it. RT will go on record right now and offer to coordinate a LL trip to Munich next Oct for the 'Fest. It would be well worth it....pics to follow...

[superman57]

RT is back from London and Munich. Octoberfest was rediculazz...NEVER have seen anything remotely like it. RT will go on record right now and offer to coordinate a LL trip to Munich next Oct for the 'Fest. It would be well worth it....pics to follow...

welcome back RT glad you had a good time

[Jonny Utah]

Here's one for 'gro and any other Engineers out there.... I go to school at UC San Diego and was getting a tour of the computer music facilities today... one class was doing a video-conferencing-type improvisation session with musicians from Stanford and.... RPI! So I saw RPI's campus live today from 3,000 miles away.

I think this shows what a good school RPI is.... it's a wonder they have football at all.

RPI has a football team?

[lewdogg11]

Here's one for 'gro and any other Engineers out there.... I go to school at UC San Diego and was getting a tour of the computer music facilities today... one class was doing a video-conferencing-type improvisation session with musicians from Stanford and.... RPI! So I saw RPI's campus live today from 3,000 miles away.

I think this shows what a good school RPI is.... it's a wonder they have football at all.

RPI has a football team?

No but they provide great rankings for college basketball.

['gro]

Dr. Shirley's into that kinky stuff with the experimental music and the digital tubas.  RPI has a lot of humanities courses, but they all start with "technological" or end with "and technology"... sometimes both.  Regulator once took a class called "Technological Ghanaian Drumming and Technology"

[lewdogg11]

Dr. Shirley's into that kinky stuff with the experimental music and the digital tubas.  RPI has a lot of humanities courses, but they all start with "technological" or end with "and technology"... sometimes both.  Regulator once took a class called "Technological Ghanaian Drumming and Technology"

Didn't Reg take 'Dinosaurs and Technology' as well?

['gro]

Dr. Shirley's into that kinky stuff with the experimental music and the digital tubas.  RPI has a lot of humanities courses, but they all start with "technological" or end with "and technology"... sometimes both.  Regulator once took a class called "Technological Ghanaian Drumming and Technology"

Didn't Reg take 'Dinosaurs and Technology' as well?

I thought that was "Sharks and Technology"  you know... sharks with frickin lasers attached to their heads

[lewdogg11]

Didn't Reg take 'Singing Gerbils and Technology'?



and...'Squirrel Photography and Technology'...



and...'Bears and Plumbing Technology'...

[lewdogg11]

Good luck to the RPI women's swim team this  year...