FB: Liberty League

[FisherAlum05]

Ok, I dont want to answer a question that is in the FAQ, but........

Is Wesley's league in the east region for playoff purposes?   I think they are in region for some teams, and one of them gets in sometimes but could the east playoffs look like this?

1-Wesley or Salsbury
2-Wesley or Salsbury
3- Mac champ
4- Nefc champ
5- LL champ
6- NJAC champ
7- E8 champ
8- Pool B/C?

or is it more likely that neither Wesley or Salsbury gets in and there will be 3 pool b/c teams in the east?

You think the MAC, LL, and NJAC champs get a better seed than the E8 champ??
If Fisher wins against AU in 2 weeks, and gets the AQ at 9-1, I can almost guarantee they dont get the 7 seed.  Remember, Fisher was 9-1 last year and got a pool C.  They had an opening round home game.

I hope the MAC champion doesn't get the 3 seed.  A weak conference this year.  Same thing can be said for the NEFC champion.  Also, I think Wesley will be put in the South Region just like the last couple years.

If RPI wins out they should be the #1 seed in the East.  

[Jonny Utah]

Ok, I dont want to answer a question that is in the FAQ, but........

Is Wesley's league in the east region for playoff purposes?   I think they are in region for some teams, and one of them gets in sometimes but could the east playoffs look like this?

1-Wesley or Salsbury
2-Wesley or Salsbury
3- Mac champ
4- Nefc champ
5- LL champ
6- NJAC champ
7- E8 champ
8- Pool B/C?

or is it more likely that neither Wesley or Salsbury gets in and there will be 3 pool b/c teams in the east?

You think the MAC, LL, and NJAC champs get a better seed than the E8 champ??
If Fisher wins against AU in 2 weeks, and gets the AQ at 9-1, I can almost guarantee they dont get the 7 seed.  Remember, Fisher was 9-1 last year and got a pool C.  They had an opening round home game.

I hope the MAC champion doesn't get the 3 seed.  A weak conference this year.  Same thing can be said for the NEFC champion.  Also, I think Wesley will be put in the South Region just like the last couple years.

If RPI wins out they should be the #1 seed in the East.  

No, sorry for the confusion.  Those teams are in no order.

But can we come to a consensus that one of the ACFC teams will be in the east, and there will be two pool b/c teams?

[dewcrew88]

Ok, I dont want to answer a question that is in the FAQ, but........

Is Wesley's league in the east region for playoff purposes?   I think they are in region for some teams, and one of them gets in sometimes but could the east playoffs look like this?

1-Wesley or Salsbury
2-Wesley or Salsbury
3- Mac champ
4- Nefc champ
5- LL champ
6- NJAC champ
7- E8 champ
8- Pool B/C?

or is it more likely that neither Wesley or Salsbury gets in and there will be 3 pool b/c teams in the east?

You think the MAC, LL, and NJAC champs get a better seed than the E8 champ??
If Fisher wins against AU in 2 weeks, and gets the AQ at 9-1, I can almost guarantee they dont get the 7 seed.  Remember, Fisher was 9-1 last year and got a pool C.  They had an opening round home game.

I hope the MAC champion doesn't get the 3 seed.  A weak conference this year.  Same thing can be said for the NEFC champion.  Also, I think Wesley will be put in the South Region just like the last couple years.

If RPI wins out they should be the #1 seed in the East.  

No, sorry for the confusion.  Those teams are in no order.

But can we come to a consensus that one of the ACFC teams will be in the east, and there will be two pool b/c teams?

I believe Salisbury could be the better choice in the East, if they get in.
Wesley would go to the South, like it has in the past.

[Pat Coleman]

If two ACFC teams get in, it's likely the higher seed stays in its native south and the lower seed moves out.

[Frank Rossi]

Ok, I dont want to answer a question that is in the FAQ, but........

Is Wesley's league in the east region for playoff purposes?   I think they are in region for some teams, and one of them gets in sometimes but could the east playoffs look like this?

1-Wesley or Salsbury
2-Wesley or Salsbury
3- Mac champ
4- Nefc champ
5- LL champ
6- NJAC champ
7- E8 champ
8- Pool B/C?

or is it more likely that neither Wesley or Salsbury gets in and there will be 3 pool b/c teams in the east?

You think the MAC, LL, and NJAC champs get a better seed than the E8 champ??
If Fisher wins against AU in 2 weeks, and gets the AQ at 9-1, I can almost guarantee they dont get the 7 seed.  Remember, Fisher was 9-1 last year and got a pool C.  They had an opening round home game.

I hope the MAC champion doesn't get the 3 seed.  A weak conference this year.  Same thing can be said for the NEFC champion.  Also, I think Wesley will be put in the South Region just like the last couple years.

If RPI wins out they should be the #1 seed in the East.  

No, sorry for the confusion.  Those teams are in no order.

But can we come to a consensus that one of the ACFC teams will be in the east, and there will be two pool b/c teams?

The Pool B teams will be Salisbury, Wesley and the NWC champ, most likely.  Any other Pool B team would come through Pool C -- so there's no need to call it Pool B/C in this situation.  There are squarely two slots available for Pool C teams in the East right now - 5 AQs, 2 Pool Cs and Salisbury/Wesley through Pool B.

[Jonny Utah]

Ok, I dont want to answer a question that is in the FAQ, but........

Is Wesley's league in the east region for playoff purposes?   I think they are in region for some teams, and one of them gets in sometimes but could the east playoffs look like this?

1-Wesley or Salsbury
2-Wesley or Salsbury
3- Mac champ
4- Nefc champ
5- LL champ
6- NJAC champ
7- E8 champ
8- Pool B/C?

or is it more likely that neither Wesley or Salsbury gets in and there will be 3 pool b/c teams in the east?

You think the MAC, LL, and NJAC champs get a better seed than the E8 champ??
If Fisher wins against AU in 2 weeks, and gets the AQ at 9-1, I can almost guarantee they dont get the 7 seed.  Remember, Fisher was 9-1 last year and got a pool C.  They had an opening round home game.

I hope the MAC champion doesn't get the 3 seed.  A weak conference this year.  Same thing can be said for the NEFC champion.  Also, I think Wesley will be put in the South Region just like the last couple years.

If RPI wins out they should be the #1 seed in the East.  

No, sorry for the confusion.  Those teams are in no order.

But can we come to a consensus that one of the ACFC teams will be in the east, and there will be two pool b/c teams?

The Pool B teams will be Salisbury, Wesley and the NWC champ, most likely.  Any other Pool B team would come through Pool C -- so there's no need to call it Pool B/C in this situation.  There are squarely two slots available for Pool C teams in the East right now - 5 AQs, 2 Pool Cs and Salisbury/Wesley through Pool B.

right, just said it that way to avoid any confusion.....

[Jonny Utah]

Im thinking Ithacas only hopes are this.......(and it could happen)

Hobart beats Union
RPI beats Union
Ithaca beats Alfred
Ithaca beats Cortland
Springfield beats Hartwick

Then here is what I think happens......

Ithaca (8 at RPI (1)
Albright (7) at TCNJ (2)
Hobart (6) at Curry (3)
Salsbury (5) at SJF (4)

-If Alfred beats IC or Hartwick beats SC and Alfred loses, one of those teams will replace IC......

-If Union wins the LL, they will be the 6/7 seed at 2/3 Curry

-These seeds are based on travel too, not on who is better (with Curry already ranked high in the ncaa anyway)
********************************************

Other playoff thoughts........

-Am I being too biased towards upstate, or does the NJAC have a chance at a pool c? I guess if Ithaca beats Alfred and then loses to Cortland and Hartwick loses, Cortland gets in..........

-And if Union beats Hobart and RPI wins out, does the LL get a pool C bid? (if rochester loses again)

[sorry for the edited post]

[union89]

BudCrew, can you explain your rationale to having Rochester ranked #9 in your East Region Poll while having Union unranked??

Thanks.

U89,
Rochester may be a bit misplaced.

That is all.
DC88



Not being a wiseass here....what does that mean....are you admitting to f'ing up the poll??

That means they may be a bit higher than they should be... But! They are a team I've had up and down in previous weeks, so I didn't totally get it wrong.

U89 did not hit you with the smite machine, but to have Alfred above Hobart and Rochester above Union might start an investigation into your polling technique.........

THAT'S TOTALLY RIDICULAZ

[dewcrew88]

Im thinking Ithacas only hopes are this.......(and it could happen)

Hobart beats Union
RPI beats Union
Ithaca beats Alfred
Ithaca beats Cortland
Springfield beats Hartwick

Then here is what I think happens......

Ithaca (8 at RPI (1)
Albright (7) at TCNJ (2)
Hobart (6) at Curry (3)
Salsbury (5) at SJF (4)

-If Alfred beats IC or Hartwick beats SC and Alfred loses, one of those teams will replace IC......

-If Union wins the LL, they will be the 6/7 seed at 2/3 Curry

-These seeds are based on travel too, not on who is better (with Curry already ranked high in the ncaa anyway)
********************************************

Other playoff thoughts........

-Am I being too biased towards upstate, or does the NJAC have a chance at a pool c? I guess if Ithaca beats Alfred and then loses to Cortland and Hartwick loses, Cortland gets in..........

-And if Union beats Hobart and RPI wins out, does the LL get a pool C bid? (if rochester loses again)

[sorry for the edited post]

Pat can correct me, but I remember that Curry couldn't host a few years ago, because the facility wasn't up to snuff. I don't know if that continues to be the case for NCAA play or not.

[labart96]

TGP would love to see Curry host Hobart.  TGP might actually be able to make that game since he is heading to Boston on 11/15.

[admirals_vt]

Im thinking Ithacas only hopes are this.......(and it could happen)

Hobart beats Union
RPI beats Union
Ithaca beats Alfred
Ithaca beats Cortland
Springfield beats Hartwick

Then here is what I think happens......

Ithaca (8 at RPI (1)
Albright (7) at TCNJ (2)
Hobart (6) at Curry (3)
Salsbury (5) at SJF (4)

-If Alfred beats IC or Hartwick beats SC and Alfred loses, one of those teams will replace IC......

-If Union wins the LL, they will be the 6/7 seed at 2/3 Curry

-These seeds are based on travel too, not on who is better (with Curry already ranked high in the ncaa anyway)
********************************************

Other playoff thoughts........

-Am I being too biased towards upstate, or does the NJAC have a chance at a pool c? I guess if Ithaca beats Alfred and then loses to Cortland and Hartwick loses, Cortland gets in..........

-And if Union beats Hobart and RPI wins out, does the LL get a pool C bid? (if rochester loses again)

[sorry for the edited post]

Jonny U, you gotta be smokin' crack if you think there is any way that IC gets in. The most likely case for two from E8 are AU & SJF. Remote chance of HC & SJF, but they would both need to win out.

[Frank Rossi]

Im thinking Ithacas only hopes are this.......(and it could happen)

Hobart beats Union
RPI beats Union
Ithaca beats Alfred
Ithaca beats Cortland
Springfield beats Hartwick

Then here is what I think happens......

Ithaca (8 at RPI (1)
Albright (7) at TCNJ (2)
Hobart (6) at Curry (3)
Salsbury (5) at SJF (4)

-If Alfred beats IC or Hartwick beats SC and Alfred loses, those teams will replace IC......
-If Union wins the LL, they will be the 6/7 seed at 2/3 Curry
-These seeds are based on travel too, not on who is better (with Curry already ranked high in the ncaa anyway)

Not sure why Hobart needs to beat Union for your scenario.

Let's be clear -- there are two Pool C bids really available in the East.  The candidates are:

Curry (9-0)
RPI (7-0)
SJF (8-1)
Plymouth St. (7-1)
TCNJ (7-1)
Alfred (7-1)
Albright (7-1)
Widener (6-2)
Cortland (6-2)
Hartwick (6-2)
Ithaca (6-2)
Hobart (6-2)
Montclair (6-2)

Assuming Curry wins the NEFC, either four or five of these teams will win their conferences -- the "or" is because Union, who is not eligible for a Pool C bid, could win the LL.  If this happens, RPI would likely siphon away a Pool C bid from the rest of the teams, although the SoS issue must improve for RPI.  Let's assume RPI wins the LL, TCNJ wins the NJAC, Alfred or SJF win the E8, Albright or Widener win the MAC and Curry wins the NEFC.  Also, there are head-to-head ("H2H") matchups inside these numbers.  That takes the list down to:

SJF (8-2 in that case)/Alfred (7-2 in that case) (H2H)
Plymouth St. (7-1)
Albright (7-2 in that case)/Widener (6-3 in that case) (H2H)
Cortland (6-2)/Ithaca (6-2) (H2H)
Hartwick (6-2)
Hobart (6-2)
Montclair (6-2)

Ithaca also plays Alfred still.  The E8 will not get both bids.  The question is more one of "which two of the following four conferences will get Pool C bids:  MAC, NJAC, E8 and/or LL?"  

If SJF beats Alfred, Rowan beats Cortland, Cortland beats Ithaca, Springfield beats Hartwick, Albright beats Widener -- Then, by default, we have Montclair and Hobart.  Then, of course, the question comes -- what if Hobart loses to Union?  Then only Montclair has two losses in the East -- and Plymouth State has only one loss.  All other East candidates would have three losses.  This is the Plymouth State doomsday scenario, I believe.  

Then, in the optomistic end of things, what if Montclair, Hartwick, Hobart, Cortland or Ithaca and SJF or Alfred are all in Pool C with two losses?  That's a tough decision -- Montclair pulls the best SoS currently out of this batch (0.565 OWP) -- but that is sure to drop over the next two weeks.  Plus, Cortland beat Montclair.  If Cortland wins out, then I think Cortland, as the second place team in the NJAC, would probably have a slight edge over Montclair -- but would rank behind a two-loss SJF team.  If Cortland falters, I believe Hobart would have a slight edge over Montclair, assuming Alfred remains strong.

The problem with the prior paragraph, however, is that the Cortland/Montclair, SJF/Alfred/Ithaca/Hartwick, Widener/Albright and Hobart comparisons go very circular right now.  

Hobart's losses came at the hands of the #1 team in the East and unranked (QW vs. #5 in East),
Monclair's losses came at the hands of #2 and #9 (QW vs. #2 in South),
Cortland's came at the hands of #2 and unranked (no QW),
SJF's came at the hands of unranked and potentially would come at the hands of #5 (no QW),
Alfred's came at the hands of #7 and potentially would come at the hands of #4 (no QW),
Ithaca's came at the hands of #4 and unranked (no QW),
Hartwick's came at the hands of #5 and unranked (QW vs. #4 in East),
Albright's came at the hands of #5 in the South and potentially #10 in the East (no QW),
Widener's came at the hands of #2 in the South and unranked (no QW).
Plymouth State's came at the hands of #3 (no QW).

Montclair's quality win and quality losses mixed with a strong SoS seem to indicate front-runner status...although it is currently in third place in its conference.  Hartwick's loss to WNEC also is magnified when placed against the resumes of teams like Monclair and Albright.

Thus, there is no clear leader in this Pool C race in the East...although Hartwick seems to be on the outside looking in with Widener and Plymouth State.

[admirals_vt]

Frank you got waaaaaaaaay too much time on your hands.

[redswarm81]

U89 did not hit you with the smite machine, but to have Alfred above Hobart and Rochester above Union might start an investigation into your polling technique.........

All right, what have you done with the real  U89, you Halloween impostor poster?

• Asking about polling technique, and
• NOT smiting?

That's not OUR Liberty League PP board member.  Keep an eye out for giant seed pods, everyone.

[union89]

Wow - it's like Day of our Lives up in this B.....

Anyway, here's more fuel for the fire:

Peel the Onion - Hobart vs. Union

This weekend Hobart travels to Schenectady, NY to face long-time rival Union College (5-2, 5-0).  This Saturday will be the 91st meeting between the two schools, making Union the second longest active Hobart football rivalry (Hobart and Union first faced off in 1896, Union leads the all-time series 48-40-2).  The Dutchmen of Union have won the last two contests.  The Statesmen's last win over Union was the somewhat infamous 33-27 OT decision back in 2004 at the Boz.

Last weekend Union won their 5th consecutive LL contest as So QB Jared Gourrier rushed for a career high 103 yards and a TD to lead Union to a 20-9 victory at St. Lawrence. This was Union's 12th straight win in the series.  Gourrier was 8 for 14 with two interceptions and 95 yards passing.  Sr RB Zach Tillo had 78 yards on 22 carries with a TD in the wet conditions up in Canton (aka Almost-Canada), NY.  Tillo also led the Dutchmen with 39 yards on three receptions.  To date, the Dutchmen have won 19 of their last 20 Liberty League games, and this season's seniors have a four year record in league play of 24-2 (.920).

With a victory this weekend at Frank Bailey Field, Hobart can make up for what was just a humiliating 31-14 loss last year at the Boz.  Hobart came into that game undefeated and ranked #14 in NCAA D3.  The end result was a humbling one for the Statesmen, who came out flat, couldn't get anything going on offense and were torched on defense for 418 yards.

Fortunately for Hobart, this year's Union squad no longer possesses their all-time career passing, receiving and rushing yardage leaders.  The Union offense is still fairly potent  though, averaging about 300+ yards and 21 points a game.  Union also leads the LL in pass defense and pass defense efficiency, and are second in scoring defense, opponent first downs and total defense.

Still, the Hobart offense is having a record setting year.  TGP checked the Hobart media guide, and from what TGP could see, this current scoring streak (5 games in a row with over 40 points scored) is a first in 116 seasons of Hobart Football.  Looking at the stat comparison listed in the the Union - Hobart Game notes:

http://www.unionathletics.com/Pdfs/football/2007/10/30/Game%208%20Notes%202007.pdf

Hobart clearly has the stronger offense.  It will be interesting to see if Union has success in cooling off the red hot Andy Strom who is averaging about 2x the yardage the Dutchmen D allows.

*Note - the penalty data is incorrect.  The Statesmen have only been penalized 45 times for 340 yds (42.5/game avg), not the 30 for 1088 shown in the Union notes.

3 Keys to the Game:

1.  Score early and often
While Hobart averages over 40 points a game, Union has only allowed a total of 40 points during their current 5 game win streak.  Given that Hobart is on the road, they need to take the Union crowd out of the game to eliminate the home field advantage (which is quite formidable at Union given the fact that a fraternity house is practically 20 feet from the football field). 

2.  Get to Gourrier
Unlike Hobart's smooth transition from Shawn Mizro to Andy Strom, Union is still searching for an heir apparent to their graduated all-time passing leader, Anthony Mariotti '07.  So far Union has used 3 different QBs this season, but Jared Gourrier has started the last two games.  Looking at Gourrier's stats would lead you to believe he is mediocre at best as a passer.  He is more of a rushing style QB, so if Hobart can bottle him up and force him into passing situations, they stand to benefit from the fact Gourrier has shown to have some ball control issues.  If Gourrier struggles, expect to see So QB Andrew Catellier (more of a pure drop back passer) take over the Union offense.

3.  Remember/Avenge 2006
The 31-14 loss to Union in 2006 was the lone blemish on what was one of Hobart's best regular seasons.  Anyone who listened to/was at that game could tell you Union simply kicked Hobart's collective a$$.  Hobart came out flat, made mental mistakes, and were physically dominated at the line of scrimmage leading to their most lop-sided defeat since a 45-14 whipping by Rowan in the 2004 NCAA play-offs.  Both Hobart and Union need to win this game to keep their NCAA hopes alive, so the stakes are high once again.  A loss eliminates Hobart from NCAA consideration (same deal for Union).

For any of you that may be travelling to the Albany area for the game this Saturday, Hobart will be hosting both pre and post game alumni/ae gatherings for any one who cares to attend (see the Hobart alumni website for more info).

Although Union has had Hobart's number as of late, TGP thinks Hobart notches a win this weekend.  This Union team hasn't played an offense of Hobart's caliber all year.  I think Union and Bart play close in the first half and Hobart puts the game away in the second.

TGP's Prediction:

Hobart 35 - Union 21

TGP, fantastic analysis.....U89 sees Hobart as the clear favorite it this spot as well.  No way that many points will be scored....

U89's prediction:
Hobart 20 - Union 10