FB: Liberty League

[Knightstalker]

Rivers played yesterday with a torn ACL .

[PBR...]

PBR,
What is your prediction for the DJI at CoB tomorrow?
Reg says 11,700

reg initally....

would not surprise to see triggers kick in for shorts the market to stop the freefall and may repeat may end(a extremely small chance of this) up a small amount for the day have to check around late morning after people are done covering their long positions to see if we start to recover a little bit...but long term it aint looking good. plus add in this whole new huge problem rearing its head the mono insurance market which could blow up some huge investment banks for good

[Tags]

After what I've been hearing & after browsing the WSJ this morning, it's certainly not looking good boys

long term it aint looking good. plus add in this whole new huge problem rearing its head the mono insurance market which could blow up some huge investment banks for good

PBR- what is this?

[PBR...]

After what I've been hearing & after browsing the WSJ this morning, it's certainly not looking good boys

long term it aint looking good. plus add in this whole new huge problem rearing its head the mono insurance market which could blow up some huge investment banks for good

PBR- what is this?

tags check out companies like ambac...here is a quick synopsis from a columnist of our about them and what lies ahead...

     Municipal bond insurers such as MBIA
Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. had a good thing going.
     For years, they earned some of the highest profit margins in
any industry -- by writing coverage for securities sold by states
and cities to build roads, schools and firehouses. During the
past five years, MBIA's average profit margin was 39 percent,
more than four times the average of the Standard & Poor's 500
Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ambac's average
profit margin was 48 percent.
     The good times are over, and the culprit isn't municipal
bonds; it's subprime debt, a market the insurers waded into in
pursuit of even greater profits. Some of the biggest bond
insurers are facing potential claims that may deplete their
capital. Their share prices have plunged, and credit rating
companies are scrutinizing their AAA status. Ambac became the
first insurer to lose its triple-A rating, when Fitch Ratings
downgraded the company to AA on Jan. 18.
     The crisis has been brewing for about six years, ever since
the insurers discovered collateralized debt obligations. These
securities, part of an area known as structured finance, were
created by Wall Street by repackaging assets such as mortgage
bonds and buyout loans into new obligations for sale to
institutional investors.
     ``It looked so profitable and so easy that they let the
portfolio shift too far toward structured finance,'' says Robert
Fuller, who runs Capital Markets Management LLC, a Hopewell, New
Jersey-based firm that advises municipalities and nonprofits.
``It morphed into this monster that is devouring them.''
     The tipping point came last year when the three major rating
companies downgraded thousands of CDOs. Ratings on more than
2,000 CDOs were cut in November alone, with Fitch lowering CDOs
backed by subprime mortgages 9.6 levels on average, according to
a Dec. 13 UBS AG research report.
     Rating cuts on CDOs and other securities backed by subprime
mortgages and home equity loans led S&P to conclude bond insurers
faced potential losses of $19 billion, the rating company said in
its December report. That sent insurers scrambling for additional
capital to protect their own credit ratings from being cut -- by
the same companies whose judgments they had relied on in backing
the CDOs.
     Fitch Ratings said at the end of December that MBIA, Ambac
and FGIC Corp., the fourth largest, had four to six weeks to
raise $1 billion each to keep their AAA ratings.
     Shares of the Armonk, New York-based company fell 86 percent
on the New York Stock Exchange to $8.55 on Jan. 18 from $60 on
Aug. 31.
     Ambac, the second largest, replaced Chief Executive Officer
Robert Genader, 60, on Jan. 16, cut its dividend 67 percent and
said it would raise more than $1 billion in capital. Two days
later, it scrapped the plan to raise capital. The New York-based
insurer's shares dropped 90 percent to $6.20 on Jan. 18 from
$62.82 on Aug. 31.
     By chasing the higher profits of CDOs while underestimating
the risks, the bond insurers jeopardized their basic business:
insuring municipalities against default. In practice, cities and
states rarely default. That's because they can raise taxes to
meet obligations or refinance their debts. The designers of CDOs
don't have those options.


a number of the largest banks are the largest holders of these companies, ambac has now just come out and admitted they are in talks to be acquired w/ 5 bidders currently...

*** fed just cut 75 basis points trying to stem the tide on the open not surprising as most thought they would before the open today

[Tags]

Tags will be in the market for a house with these rates.

Here is a note Tags just received from a buddy trading at a hedge fund

"Dow futures down 500....panic button was hit. It's going to get ugly."

It's going to be a long day on Wall St

[PBR...]

pbr was out to dinner w/ 2 friends who are traders last night and were more than dreading going into work today...the carnage that is going to take place today will not be pretty and will cause many a peeps to lose their employment....we are going down down down for awhile this year

[Senor RedTackle]

every 12 years or so this happens...it's inevitable. Thank goodness none of us are retiring anytime soon (or so i'd assume)

[Tags]

Tags believes this is the truth, and we'd better wake up in a hurry or we'll be in even deeper

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/eu_finance_ministers.html

[PBR...]

Tags believes this is the truth, and we'd better wake up in a hurry or we'll be in even deeper

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/eu_finance_ministers.html

what a blow hard....the eu were some of the biggest buyers of cdo's and siv's....those that live in glass houses....there are just as many things we can pick apart about their banking systems over there and plans as well...put a sock in it already talk about piling on while pounding your own chest give pbr a break

[Garnet]

as of 1:26pm today the DJIA -90 points. to 11999.  Pretty good bounce off the 11634 low.  The close and holding the day's low is what's important.  Predictions of further rate cuts even after the 75 basis point cut this am.

[PBR...]

people are buying it back to cover their positions and realign their book...a number of people got caught out and long on this

[labart96]

TGP reporting from the eye of the melt-down.  Great earnings from my soon to be Parent co (not).  Hmm, better brush up the old rez and see if TGP can get a gig as a beat writer for Hobart Football in the Finger Lakes Times.

Hey RT - what's this radio show TGP hears you are hosting tomorrow night?

[Senor RedTackle]

TGP reporting from the eye of the melt-down.  Great earnings from my soon to be Parent co (not).  Hmm, better brush up the old rez and see if TGP can get a gig as a beat writer for Hobart Football in the Finger Lakes Times.

Hey RT - what's this radio show TGP hears you are hosting tomorrow night?

here you go... check it out..it's 6pm EST on Wed. Call in and we'll talk some LL football..

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ThinkTankRadio

It's a work in progress so RT realizes that it has a very 'grass roots' feel but the talent is there!!

[PBR...]

pbr is calling in to discuss level 5 hangovahs and your feelings on doing a "richard in the box" at parties....

[Senor RedTackle]

pbr is calling in to discuss level 5 hangovahs and your feelings on doing a "richard in the box" at parties....

in addition to your investing acumen, pbr is also welcome to discuss aforementioned topics......