FB: Liberty League

[pumkinattack]

BTW, if I'm beating a dead horse just tell me.  We may just fundamentally disagree about this, but I just think its too early to tell on all but a couple of teams. 

I have to pay attention to Bart more this year because I'm a Tennessee college fan and that's clearly not going well this year.

['gro]

How far should SJF drop?

Hartwick may not be consistant but they won the E8 last year. It's not like they lost to Norwich or SLU

Is beating Ithaca that much of a trophy win anymore?


EDIT: looks like Gro agrees with TGP, No LL team is.. heheheh... poll worthy yet.

[Jonny Utah]

AUPep, I didn't mean to take any particular team and denigrate them.  I wish we kept AU on the schedule, its a good game generally every year.  Plus it beefs up our engineering cred (RPI, Wpi, Mellon, AU).  I was simply commenting on how tiers can even be created at this point.  My original comment was isn't it early to put AU in the top tier (and Hartwick for that matter, you can't ignore giving up 69 points in a single game).  I'd only have a couple of teams in the top tier right now because none have exemplified excellence at this point.  

JU's comment was that Rochester is in a lower tier because they have three losses, but they've played a schedule roughly equivalent of playing three rounds in the east region of the playoffs (assuming Union is roughly equal to Curry, its easily conceivable that RPI, SJF and Case could represent 2nd, 3rd and 4th round quality opponents in the East).  

Alfred could be better than Rochester, but they both lost great offensive players, played pretty even the last two years in ECAC games and both beat top teams (Fisher in 06, Rochester the last two years).  So it seems at this point we don't know about anyone in the east except Fisher (I think), Del Valley (even with the Iona loss) and maybe Cortland.  

Right now I'd tier it:  And I expect this to be very fluid over the next few weeks.  
Tier 1: Fisher, Del Valley, Cortland

Tier 2: Ithaca, RPI, Hobart, Montclair, Albright (not that sure, kind of a guess)

Tier 3:  Hartwick (69pts in one game), Rochester, WPI, Alfred, Union (maybe, could drop), Lyco, Kean, Rowan

Tier 4:  Everyone else

I think the winner of AU/Hartwick moves up and the other stays the same.  If they are both tier one, then you could maintain both at tier one with two losses early.  I suppose I may be biased, but I noticed four E8 teams in your tier one and it struck me as worth questioning.  Is it so hard with the current body of work to think that Rochester is inferior to AU or Wick?    

Garnet,  its definitely location specific because the one at the mall in Milford, CT is better.  If you go back to Port Chester and can call ahead, its better from a service perspective.  

I guess part of my whole thing is that if you cant lose any games to a team in a tier 2 below you (sjf to Wick).  Id agree with you more if you had sjf in the 2 tier in your rankings.

And I only had 3 E8 teams in the top tier.  I just dont think you can put a team with 3 losses up there.  Its not like Rochester played the top teams in the country yet.  Hartwick at least beat one of those teams, and it was a team that you even have in your first tier.

[pumkinattack]

I think a team two tiers below can win from time to time.  Additionally, as I mentioned, the winner of Wick/AU would move up in my view.  Otherwise, Wick with a blowout loss to Ithaca and a loss to AU would still be one tier below SJF? 

I noticed your discussion about Florida.  I bet that Ole Miss (even with Oher and Nutt, two very big assets) is probably two tiers below Florida right now.  Same with Oregon State over USC.  You've been exploring the concept of getting outschemed.  Maybe that happened with SJF. 

I also agree with tgp, gro, et al that the LL doesn't deserve any love.  Its hard to make the case for anyone except Del Valley in the east right now.  What makes it harder is how inbred it gets since there haven't been a lot of out of conference games between two competitive teams.  Salisbury/SJF may tell us a lot more. 

['gro]

Now while gro states that Hobart/RPI aren't ready for the top 25 just yet (based on no statement games so far... which unfortunetly in a down LL will only be the game they play against each other)...  That being said, Gro is not happy receiving less votes than these 2 chumps: Curry and Montclair State.

Curry is... Curry. A man in a boys league, but outmatched on the regional scale. Yes they beat Hartwick last year, the most bipolar team in the region (seriously Hawks, if you get your heads on straight you'd be a top tier program). But more often than not Curry is on the losing side of the playoff picture.

Montclair hasn't played anyone yet worth mentioning, and barely beat all of them. look at their games... s-u-s-p-e-c-t.  Cortland is the test.  They'll earn my respect with a win or even a close loss like 10-7.

Just to finish, I don't think either LL team should be ranked, but enough pollster should where it ends up they have more votes than those 2 teams.  Stay tuned next week for another episode of Splitting Hairs - with 'Gro

[Pat Coleman]

Montclair lost its spot on my ballot this week. Gotta be able to score more than 14.

[union89]

Now while gro states that Hobart/RPI aren't ready for the top 25 just yet (based on no statement games so far... which unfortunetly in a down LL will only be the game they play against each other)...  That being said, Gro is not happy receiving less votes than these 2 chumps: Curry and Montclair State.

Curry is... Curry. A man in a boys league, but outmatched on the regional scale. Yes they beat Hartwick last year, the most bipolar team in the region (seriously Hawks, if you get your heads on straight you'd be a top tier program). But more often than not Curry is on the losing side of the playoff picture.

Montclair hasn't played anyone yet worth mentioning, and barely beat all of them. look at their games... s-u-s-p-e-c-t.  Cortland is the test.  They'll earn my respect with a win or even a close loss like 10-7.

Just to finish, I don't think either LL team should be ranked, but enough pollster should where it ends up they have more votes than those 2 teams.  Stay tuned next week for another episode of Splitting Hairs - with 'Gro

"....but enough pollster should where it ends up they have more votes than those 2 teams."  Is that Swaheely??

U89 feels that the LL rarely gets any preseason love in the polls (not stating that's right or wrong).  The lack of any preseason visibility leads to undefeated teams from the LL still on the outside looking in of the Top 25.

Or in Gro's words...."Union the and spectacular Futchmen, Audino jackup, bite the ball...."

[Knightstalker]

KS has had MSU, RPI and Hobart right in the middle of the pack since the preseason.  All three keep winning but none have really distinguished themselves yet.  MSU/Cortland is a big game this week, winner is the favorite for the NJAC title IMO.  One MAC team everyone is overlooking is Leb Valley.  They are right up there with a 3-1 record. 

[union89]

KS has had MSU, RPI and Hobart right in the middle of the pack since the preseason.  All three keep winning but none have really distinguished themselves yet.  MSU/Cortland is a big game this week, winner is the favorite for the NJAC title IMO.  One MAC team everyone is overlooking is Leb Valley.  They are right up there with a 3-1 record. 

KS, U89 looked at Leb Val this week, but their schedule has been very weak also.  U89 also left out WPI, but WPI deserves at least as much recognition at Leb Val IMO.

[PBR...]

KS has had MSU, RPI and Hobart right in the middle of the pack since the preseason.  All three keep winning but none have really distinguished themselves yet.  MSU/Cortland is a big game this week, winner is the favorite for the NJAC title IMO.  One MAC team everyone is overlooking is Leb Valley.  They are right up there with a 3-1 record. 

we find out how good leb val is this week when they come to dvc for homecoming....

['gro]

U89, let me translate, sorry for the jibberish and clicking sounds...

Having historical and inside knowledge to Liberty League Football -  in particular Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - Gro would not cast a vote for either team in the top 25.  But, given the subjectiveness of the poll in general, Gro feels that there should be more voters that have a "hunch" on RPI or Hobart and include them into the bottom end of their ballot more often then teams like perennial playoff loser Curry or offensively challenged Montclair State; thus resulting in the LL teams to end up with more "receiving votes" after the final tally.

p.s. Union sucks.

[union89]

U89, let me translate, sorry for the jibberish and clicking sounds...

Having historical and inside knowledge to Liberty League Football -  in particular Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - Gro would not cast a vote for either team in the top 25.  But, given the subjectiveness of the poll in general, Gro feels that there should be more voters that have a "hunch" on RPI or Hobart and include them into the bottom end of their ballot more often then teams like perennial playoff loser Curry or offensively challenged Montclair State; thus resulting in the LL teams to end up with more "receiving votes" after the final tally.

p.s. Union sucks.

Dat der RPI diploma did you good son.

I agree with your analysis BTW.

[Knightstalker]

U89, let me translate, sorry for the jibberish and clicking sounds...

Having historical and inside knowledge to Liberty League Football -  in particular Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - Gro would not cast a vote for either team in the top 25.  But, given the subjectiveness of the poll in general, Gro feels that there should be more voters that have a "hunch" on RPI or Hobart and include them into the bottom end of their ballot more often then teams like perennial playoff loser Curry or offensively challenged Montclair State; thus resulting in the LL teams to end up with more "receiving votes" after the final tally.

p.s. Union sucks.

Dat der RPI diploma did you good son.

I agree with your analysis BTW.

Seen here first, U89 agrees with Gro's analysis that Union sucks.

[Frank Rossi]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made like Susquehanna on Saturday night during the late part of the trading session -- down at one point over 800 points and below 9,600, the Dow (in preliminary figures) closes down just below 10,000 (down about 350 points at 4:07pm).  At least Susquehanna completed their comeback though

[redswarm81]

How far should SJF drop?

I tried to think that question through on the Top 25 Board, and to help my analysis, I compared SJF to a couple other preseason-ranked teams who've arrived at 3-2 records:

I've been marveling at the entertainment provided by the Empire8, so that's where my mind is these days.  I guess I'm still surprised to see St. John Fisher in the top 20.  Everything is relative of course, so I'll think out loud:

St. John Fisher, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses big at Mount Union, and loses close at home to (schizophrenic?) in-conference foe, 2-1 Hartwick.  End result, 3-2 St. John Fisher is ranked no. 20.

St. John's, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses a squeaker at home to the surprise conference tri-leader Concordia-Morehead (whose only loss was at ranked, faraway Willamette), and loses another squeaker at defending conference champion Bethel.  End result, 3-2 St. John's is 34th in voting with 10 points.

Wartburg, preseason top 20 from a preseason top 10 conference, ties loses in 2OT at other surprise MIAC tri-leader, undefeated Augsburg, then loses a squeaker at (surprise?) conference leader Buena Vista.  End result, 3-1-1 3-2 Wartburg is off the charts--zero points.

Polling is an inexact science, I understand.  Nonetheless, Fisher is no. 20, St. John's is 14 places behind them (after starting out in preseason 4 places ahead of Fisher), and Wartburg is at least 7 places behind St. John's.  Am I wrong to see less than 21 "teams of separation" between these 3 preseason ranked teams, who today each have 3-2 records?

I'll be curious to read K-Mack's Top 25 ruminations--exciting reading, in this weeks ATN!

St. John Fisher beat (3-1) Ithaca. St. John's best win is ... (3-1) East Texas Baptist? Wartburg's best win is ... (preseason top 10) 2-2 Central? (4-1) St. Norbert?

Your analysis is way way too simplistic. Not all 3-2 records are the same.

(Red text added by RS81)

Well, I suppose you're right, if "way way too simplistic" means analyzing two losses per team instead of analyzing one win per team.  Is it relevant that of the three teams, only St. John Fisher has a loss where they've not been competitive?  When the non-competitive loss is v. Mount Union, I can see how it could/should be ignored, but does a second loss demand that the nature of the first loss be considered?

I didn't mean to give the impression that I thought all 3-2 records are the same.  I infer from your analysis that St. John's appears to be the weakest of the three teams.  The voters disagree.