FB: Liberty League

[lewdogg11]

1.  You think WPI is going to make it to the tournament?
2.  You think WPI could  make it to the 3rd round?

[dlippiel]

-RPI will go 9-0, beat Curry or Plymouth St in the first round, and then lose to Albright or Del Vall in the second round (MAC 2nd team gets at large bid)

-Hobart will go 7-2, losing to RPI and either Union or Rochester.  They will lose to the MAC/NJAC champ in the first round

-Union goes 4-5

-Rochester 5-4

-SJF goes 7-3, losing to either Salisbury or Alfred, and then beats Cortland/Ithaca in the first round, beats Ithaca/Cortland in the second round and loses to MAC champ in third round (Albright/Del Val)

-Ithaca goes 7-3, beats Montclair in the first round, and loses to SJF in the second round.  Or loses to SJF in the first round.

Hartwick goes 6-3 and misses the playoffs.

Norwich goes 2-8

Springfield goes 4-6

Alfred goes 6-4

Susquenna goes 4-6

Merchant Marine goes 3-7

WPI goes 8-2 and either beats or loses to Ithaca in the first round and then loses to SJF in the second round Or they beat the NJAC second team in the second round. or whomever else because my scenerio is too confusing right now to figure out.  But I stand by my records.

Wow Utah nice breakdown

[lewdogg11]

JU, One other thing....

There is no way a 9-0 RPI will play a 10-0 Curry because OBVIOUSLY, Curry would get the #1 seed in the East.  After all, they DID beat Hartwick last year.

['gro]

The LL did not get 3 teams in the playoffs in 2005
Union 10-0 got the AQ
Hobart 8-1 Loss to Union  Got a Pool C bid
RPI 7-2 loss to Hobart & Union sent to the ECACs (and beat a pretty good 8-2 SJF team)

Can't see the conference getting 3 teams in unless something like this happens again...

[dlippiel]

JU, One other thing....

There is no way a 9-0 RPI will play a 10-0 Curry because OBVIOUSLY, Curry would get the #1 seed in the East.  After all, they DID beat Hartwick last year.

Are you possibly insinuating that Curry will be undeserving of a #1 seed? I mean you made the point...they beat Wick last year that means they are totally for real.

[lewdogg11]

JU, One other thing....

There is no way a 9-0 RPI will play a 10-0 Curry because OBVIOUSLY, Curry would get the #1 seed in the East.  After all, they DID beat Hartwick last year.

Are you possibly insinuating that Curry will be undeserving of a #1 seed? I mean you made the point...they beat Wick last year that means they are totally for real.

Yes, that is exactly what I am insinuating.  My thoughts on Curry?  They suck.  They are a good NEFC team.  They are well coached.  They have some talent, and that is all that is needed to win that pathetic league.  A well coached HS team could probably put up a fight in that league.  A well coached HS team could have beaten Hartwick outside of the steel cage last year.  Yup, I said it.  Sorry Spicy Boyz...

[dlippiel]

JU, One other thing....

There is no way a 9-0 RPI will play a 10-0 Curry because OBVIOUSLY, Curry would get the #1 seed in the East.  After all, they DID beat Hartwick last year.

Are you possibly insinuating that Curry will be undeserving of a #1 seed? I mean you made the point...they beat Wick last year that means they are totally for real.

Yes, that is exactly what I am insinuating.  My thoughts on Curry?  They suck.  They are a good NEFC team.  They are well coached.  They have some talent, and that is all that is needed to win that pathetic league.  A well coached HS team could probably put up a fight in that league.  A well coached HS team could have beaten Hartwick outside of the steel cage last year.  Yup, I said it.  Sorry Spicy Boyz...

I hope you know I was being sarcastic.

[lewdogg11]

JU, One other thing....

There is no way a 9-0 RPI will play a 10-0 Curry because OBVIOUSLY, Curry would get the #1 seed in the East.  After all, they DID beat Hartwick last year.

Are you possibly insinuating that Curry will be undeserving of a #1 seed? I mean you made the point...they beat Wick last year that means they are totally for real.

Yes, that is exactly what I am insinuating.  My thoughts on Curry?  They suck.  They are a good NEFC team.  They are well coached.  They have some talent, and that is all that is needed to win that pathetic league.  A well coached HS team could probably put up a fight in that league.  A well coached HS team could have beaten Hartwick outside of the steel cage last year.  Yup, I said it.  Sorry Spicy Boyz...

I hope you know I was being sarcastic.

I know.  I just get fired up thinking about it.  The voters try and steer it that past years don't mean much, but then a team beats a team that would have maybe gotten an ECAC bid if they didn't win the E8 the year before, and all of a sudden, they are worthy of votes, where Hobart and RPI have been there every freaking year and can actually compete against teams other than Hartwick.  It's pathetic.

['gro]

Curry College aka Dem Spicy Boyz warm up tape

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GejvHM_gMxQ

[PBR...]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made like Susquehanna on Saturday night during the late part of the trading session -- down at one point over 800 points and below 9,600, the Dow (in preliminary figures) closes down just below 10,000 (down about 350 points at 4:07pm).  At least Susquehanna completed their comeback though

the dow is headed the way of union.....to the cellar....the dow is headed to 8500 if not a little further down....

[lewdogg11]

Curry College aka Dem Spicy Boyz warm up tape

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GejvHM_gMxQ

The dude's 'Indians' jersey is classic.

[PBR...]

Robert Shiller (you may have heard of him from the Case Shiller Index - real estate) wrote a book in 1999 calling the stock market "crash" called Irrational Exhuberance.  In that book he discussed that market down cycles are more than a year or two.  Go look at the S&P 500 from 2000 to now and see where we went.  There's money to be made in any situation, good or bad, so I'm not a pessimist, but clearly this is a long term flat to down cycle.  

Additionally, a great book came out a year or two ago called the Black Swan.  It theorizes about how we never account for "black swan" events.  Things that are in the 2.5% tails of a bell curve.  Take those two together and you can understand whats going on to some degree.  Or you can just think about this:

http://data1.blog.de/blog/v/verzaubert/img/Dawn-Marie-and-Torrie-Wilson_01.jpg

Fundamentals are back right now -- the dollar has re-corrected over 40% of its drop against the Euro over the last few weeks, oil is back around $89/barrel in after-hours and gas is at $2.08/gallon (before taxes and gas station profits -- normally a 60-70 cent difference from the pump when the price cycles through, meaning about $2.75 is where unleaded should be if the market instantaneously took into account all price movements).  P/E ratios are ridiculously low for quality companies.  We have a plan in place to begin recycling some liquidity over the next six months.  I really believe that we're in a position for a pretty decent recovery once the new RTC begins its operations. 

Remember, the real start of the economic downturn was the hyperinflation of energy prices and the high price of imports.  The mortgage crisis was exacerbated by these issues as consumers couldn't weather both high mortgage payments (especially those who didn't belong with mortgages in the first place at the amounts they were loaned) AND an energy shock.  If customers are permitted to refinance their instruments at lower 30-year fixed rates over the next year, consumer spending should return in a strong way by mid-2009. 

In short, enough of this "depression" talk I hear all over the place -- we're finishing out a pretty ugly cycle right now and should weather it just fine as long as no other shock occurs in the system.

- Frank

I don't really know where we are going.  I was one of those "smart" people buying CDO's and leverage loans for a bank and investment fund who was downsized over the summer (just accepted a new position, but I don't start for two weeks, so I'm boozing and tooling around on this board now).  I do think that deleveraging of the world is going to take a couple of years.  This isn't RTC for a couple of reasons.  For one, its mostly financial assets (ever hear of a bespoke synthetic corporate CDO investment?  We bought a bunch of them and they were backed by CDS of the crappiest companies you've ever heard of including Bombarider, JetBlue, Deluxe Corp, Kodak, etc. and we had hundreds of millions of them with Lehman and Bear as the counterparty to the CDS).  RTC involved much more "hard" underlying assets or were whole loans (no one has any idea how to work out various tranches of RMBS).

We could do well and I believe the combination of the intagible protestant ethic and spirit of capitalism in the US (along with the most freedom in the world, whether it can be improved or not) means we will be relative winners and continue to be prosperous.  In theory we've ascended to a higher value-added area knows as human capital services, but I'd like to see our economy produce more tangible goods.  Fin Services commanded a higher portion of GDP than any industry in history (incl auto or grocery stores, which at one point dominated) in 2006 and grew from there.  We clearly need to rebalance a little.  

While a little tipsy, I hate to be so dulling topics so:

http://popcultured.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/eliza-dushku.jpg

as ed mcmahon says...u r correct sir....europe is just starting, who was the largest buyer of cmo's, abs, remics, etc...europes banks who have much smaller reserves than u.s. banks...apples and oranges in comparisions to rtc

[Jonny Utah]

1.  You think WPI is going to make it to the tournament?
2.  You think WPI could  make it to the 3rd round?

Yea I guess Im predicting an upset with WPI beating Hobart, but I think it can happen.  I mean, of their remaining 5 games, only the Hobart game is one they wouldnt be favored to win right?

-Hobart
-Rochester
-MM
-Susq
-SLU

They could lose to Rochester as well just as easy.

My main point here is that its easy for guys like Frank (and all of us including me) to go out there, say who is good, who is bad, who deserves what ranking, but not actually go out on a limb and predict what team is going to do what.  Thats why I want Frank to predict how the rest of upstate football will turn out the rest of the season.

[Jonny Utah]

JU, One other thing....

There is no way a 9-0 RPI will play a 10-0 Curry because OBVIOUSLY, Curry would get the #1 seed in the East.  After all, they DID beat Hartwick last year.

Yea, I guess I would have to predict that Curry or Plymouth St will lose an NEFC game and still beat the best team in the other divistion to make it.  That way, the 9-1 NEFC team will be the lowest seed.

[Jonny Utah]

The LL did not get 3 teams in the playoffs in 2005
Union 10-0 got the AQ
Hobart 8-1 Loss to Union  Got a Pool C bid
RPI 7-2 loss to Hobart & Union sent to the ECACs (and beat a pretty good 8-2 SJF team)

Can't see the conference getting 3 teams in unless something like this happens again...

Yea I didnt think about this either.  If WPI beats Hobart, then Hobart wont go and vice versa.  Im predicting WPI to beat them and go.