FB: Liberty League

[dlippiel]

ECAC® Lambert Meadowlands Division III Football Poll

1. Cortland State 5-0
1. Muhlenberg 5-0
3. Washington & Jefferson 5-0
4. Delaware Valley 4-1
4. Wesley 3-1
6. Salisbury 5-1
7. Rensselaer 4-0
8. Ithaca 4-1
9. Trinity 4-0
10. St. John Fisher 3-3

Press Release

You guys will love my Lambert ballot, then.

1. Cortland State
2. Delaware Valley
3. Muhlenberg
4. Salisbury
5. Wesley
6. Washington & Jefferson
7. RPI
8. Hartwick
9. St. John Fisher
10. Trinity

Pat and I both vote in the Lambert poll.  I'm not sure who else does, though I suspect it has heavier New England representation than other national polls (like D3football.com).

Here's my ballot (climbs out on limb next to Pat)...

1) Muhlenberg
2) Wesley
3) Cortland State
4) Washington & Jefferson
5) Delaware Valley
6) Salisbury
7) Ithaca
8) Lycoming
9) RPI
10) Hartwick

I'm struck by the Poohbah's (and apparently many other voters') treatment of Muhlenberg relative to teams ranked lower than the Mules in the d3football.com Top 25.

The Mules need to be at the top of this list everytime.

[Ethelred the Unready]

How come Garnet has come across D3 games on FCS from other regions but never the East?

Any thoughts?

Just another example of "the man" keeping us down.....

[Pat Coleman]

The Mules need to be at the top of this list everytime.

Because?

Cortland's opponents (not counting the Cortland games) are 12-8. Muhlenberg's (not counting the Muhlenberg game) are 12-13. Cortland has dealt three teams their only loss this season while Muhlenberg has not once, and in fact has played only one team with a winning record.

As for Fox College Sports, they're only rebroadcasting what their regional networks have already shown.

['gro]

Not all monkeystomps are created equal.

BEST. LINE. EVER.

[Pat Coleman]

BTW I love how Frank made a big deal out of me using that word, like I'd never done it before.

['gro]

"stomp" (sans primate) is regularly used on the front page and daily dose.

[Pat Coleman]

Yes, and with a primate on several occasions here on the boards.

[dlippiel]

The Mules need to be at the top of this list everytime.

Because?

Cortland's opponents (not counting the Cortland games) are 12-8. Muhlenberg's (not counting the Muhlenberg game) are 12-13. Cortland has dealt three teams their only loss this season while Muhlenberg has not once, and in fact has played only one team with a winning record.

As for Fox College Sports, they're only rebroadcasting what their regional networks have already shown.

Good question but #1 because I have seen both play and feel the Mules are very solid and a stronger team (I could be wrong) overall. #2 because they are ranked #5 in the nation and have been in the top ten (I believe) all year. It may be closer than my post's tone indicated but I still feel the Mules should be on top of that list.

[Pat Coleman]

Perhaps they are overrated in the national poll then, rather than underrated in the Lambert poll.

[Frank Rossi]

The Mules need to be at the top of this list everytime.

Because?

Cortland's opponents (not counting the Cortland games) are 12-8. Muhlenberg's (not counting the Muhlenberg game) are 12-13. Cortland has dealt three teams their only loss this season while Muhlenberg has not once, and in fact has played only one team with a winning record.

As for Fox College Sports, they're only rebroadcasting what their regional networks have already shown.

Good question but #1 because I have seen both play and feel the Mules are very solid and a stronger team (I could be wrong) overall. #2 because they are ranked #5 in the nation and have been in the top ten (I believe) all year. It may be closer than my post's tone indicated but I still feel the Mules should be on top of that list.

I don't think they were great vs. Union -- to be honest, Union gave them two scores at the start and stayed in the game for 3 quarters.  Finally, Muhlenberg blew out Union -- so I'm not sold based on personally witnessing MUH play (via web).  They are big on the line, no doubt.  I'm not sure how far into the playoffs they could really go, though.

[dlippiel]

Perhaps they are overrated in the national poll then, rather than underrated in the Lambert poll.

This is a possibility Pat but again I feel aside from the sos (which I think is closer than both teams respective opponents records and winning percentage indicate) that Muhlenburg has not yet played to their potential and would take both Del Val and Cortland head to head. I would be rooting against them of course but I think they would win. Maybe #5 is high for them but I don't think #13 is to high for Cortland. I could be wrong though and feel your points are quite valid.

[Jonny Utah]

The high point differntial in the IC/Hartwick game puts IC over the top in this 3 way tie at the moment. 

But the IC/SJF game was at least close for a half.  Thats why "ratios" cant always be looked at in all this.

Do you actually read your posts for consistency?  I mean, Pat was answering your own "differential" post with a "ratio" comparison.  C'mon, Jonny.  Step away from the Bomber, man.

I just don't like seeing terms like 6:1 or SOS is .98456456 versus .98346356.  Id rather watch the games, see for myself which team is better and then decide.  which will bring me to my next post....

[Jonny Utah]

The IC/SJF game could not be called a fluke, but it was close for a half...

I didn't know this was a criterion for playoff consideration -- Pat, could you please start posting W/L by half in the standings page now?!  I mean, c'mon, it's gotta be a review criterion if it's going to help Ithaca into the playoffs this year!

Ok Frank, lets just let a computer decide the whole thing.  This BCS thing has been perfect huh?  Im just saying that you have to look at what actually happens in the game sometimes and not just rely on ratios and percentages.

According to you, there's just black or white and no grey, JU... And that's bull.  I proposed a tiebreaker solution for people to consider in the E8 that takes a little of wins and losses and a little of SoS into consideration to at least create a scenario whereby some fairness can be injected into the analysis.

You, on the other hand, pride yourself in defending the loophole.  You suggest that because it's possible that an inferior team can slide into the AQ slot, it forces the NCAA to pick the stronger E8 team to get a Pool C slot -- basically hijacking a slot from another deserving team just so that it pads your team's and conference's scenario.  Not only does the E8 tiebreaker suck, but if the rationale you put forward is some reason for keeping it, then I'll place a protest personally to the NCAA.  I doubt that is why the E8 picked the tiebreaker it chose -- I think the home office was just lazy.  Now we all hold our collective breath to see how this plays out and hope they wake up next season.

A one-point game would be something to look at to make sure the game was a hard-fought game, maybe.  An overtime game would be the same.  But there are very few circumstances in which looking at a minute-by-minute recap of the game is going to be fruitful for time, efficiency and/or strength purposes. 

Once you step away from your Ithaca-centric approach here, I'd give you a LOT more credit in your arguments.  Currently, I'm kind of looking at your statements in disbelief.

There isgrey Frank, thats my whole point.  Watching a team (or teams) throughout the season can tell you a lot about that team.  It tells you a lot more a bunch of SOS numbers, out of region stats, and ratios.  I'm just saying there should be a little more human involvement than what currently is in place thats all.

I never defended the loophole, and I never said your solution was bad or good. It actually made sense. I merely pointed out that it helped the E8 last year, and might help it this year.   

[labart96]

TGP has been quiet on the Union game (well, other than what TGP discussed with FR and RT on the last ITH broadcast).   Here's TGP 2 cents (well maybe 25) on last weekend's game and Hobart's mid-season standing:

Hobart (4-1, 2-1) lost their first game of the season against a determined Union College (2-3, 1-2) team that flat out-played, out-coached and out-classed the Statesmen last Saturday in Geneva.  Hobart missed three field goals and inexplicably did not attempt to convert several 4th and 1's (a very un-Coach Cragg like move based on his prior track record of playing to win) that would have sustained drives in Union territory (especially in the fourth quarter) that would have kept the very effective Union offense off the field.

Union's offense line dominated the line of scrimmage helping SO RB Chris Coney lead the Dutchmen with a career-high 243 yards rushing (the sixth highest total in Union history) and three touchdowns.  FY QB Andrew Connolly (11 for 24 passing for 120 yards, one INT and two TDs) was probably the best athlete on the field (based on several observers opinions), making several big plays and hitting SR TE Josh McKelligan three times for a team-high 44 yards.

Hobart's defense was once again led by LB Justin Hager with 15 tackles (which earned him a defensive Player of the Week award from the Liberty League) and FY DB Drake Woodard notched his league leading sixth interception on the year.  Although Hobart out-gained the Dutchmen 456 (a season high) to 391 yards, the Statesmen missed several scoring opportunities - Hobart was in the red zone five or six times in the first half and only came away with 14 points.

Commentary/Mid-season Review:

A lot more analysis could be done on the Union game, but the reality is that this year's game against the Dutchmen is a perfect example of how a very good football team can exploit Hobart's weaknesses and win (regardless of their losing record, the Dutchmen had lost two games earlier in the year on the very last play, so their record is a bit of a smoke screen.  Obviously they are much better than 2-3 and could be 4-1 if they caught a couple breaks).

Union put together a text book game plan and executed to it to perfection.  Namely they took advantage of Hobart's:

Rushing defense - One of my key's from last week was to stop Coney.  Well the Statesmen didn't and he torched them for almost 250 yards.  Not to sound like a broken record, but the Statemen have allowed a league worst 184 yards a game.  This needs to change for Hobart to any hope at a fifth NCAA consecutive play-off berth;
Special teams play - Although the Statesmen lead the league in kick-off coverage (14.8 avg), they missed three field goals Saturday and overall have only been one for six - tied for worst in the league - all season, and as a direct result have struggled to score points especially;
Red Zone Offense - Hobart has gone 16 for 24 (67%) in the red zone this season.  Last season Hobart scored 85% of the time they were in the red zone.  Obviously the Statesmen need to do a better job converting trips inside the 20 yard line into points.
Time of possession - Hobart has so far lost the TOP battle, but not by much.  So far the Statesmen have controlled the ball 29:27 vs. 30:33 for their opponents.  Last season Hobart had a much more significant edge (32:56 to 27:03) in this category.

Although some fans may also have thought TGP would add a lack of a feature back/rushing attack onto Hobart's "glass half-empty" list, TGP changed his mind after looking at the rushing stats.  So far this season the Statesmen are rushing within 20 yards/game from last season's totals.  However (per PA)  the rushing numbers are off about 40 yards/game from 2006 when Doug Blakowski '07 was the feature back for Hobart.  That year Blakowski rushed for 14 TDs and averaged 105 yards/game.  So far this season, the tandem of SR RB Anthony Hobaica and SO RB Andrew Marlier have only scored a total of five rushing TDs in five games played to date and are currently ranked fifth (71.6 yards/game) and seventh (49 yards/game) in rushing based on league stats.

That being said, all is not lost for the Statesmen.  To Union's credit, they should be complemented for exceptional OL play and red zone defense.  They took it to the Statesmen and played with the urgency in what was, in effect, a must-win game for their season.  Hopefully Hobart will demonstrate this same sense of urgency during the second half of the season.

Looking at the glass half full, Hobart is in a three-way tie for second place in the league (along with WPI and Susquehanna).  RPI (5-0, 3-0) is still the team to beat and controls their own destiny for winning the league and the accompanying AQ to the NCAA tournament.  That being the case, Hobart will have to basically win out in order to create a potential tie-breaker scenario and/or get some help by other LL and east region teams.  An 8-1 finish could be good enough for an at-large selection for the Statesmen in the event they fail to capture the league title.  That is a big "IF" though, it's very likely that another loss by Hobart would knock them completely from the NCAA picture. 

Hobart's remaining 2008 schedule is as follows (W-L records as of today):

10/25 @ Merchant Marine (2-4, 1-2)
11/01 vs. WPI (5-1, 2-1)
11/08 @ RPI (5-0, 3-0)
11/15 vs. Rochester (1-4, 1-2)

This year WPI seems much improved from last season's (4-6, 1-6) squad and the RPI game will be in Troy - the final game to be played on '86 Field (note - although Hobart lost to RPI last season at the Boz and will likely be the underdog in this match-up, 2001 was the last time a Hobart team has lost a game to RPI at the '86).

This week, the Statesmen will have plenty of soul searching and practice time in order to improve their team and prepare for the long road trip to King's Point, Long Island. 

[muledaddy]

Mates

The Mules conference is substantially stronger this year than last, hence the reason for the number of losses by theMule opponents being higher than that of Cortland.easy games are few and far between
in the Centenniel this year. Having watched 1 team after the other who are ranked  above the Mules bite the dust and lose a game, without  the Mules moving up (Wabash, Capital), I think things are probably about the way they are supposed to be right now, although I appreciate the Dutchman's support and
sincerely believe we have not seen the best of the Mules, yet, it being my dream that they peak in
December. 300 lb line is just getting warmed up, 19 for 21 pass completion arm of the little general, (
qb Santagato) is coming into form, and DeLuca runs better each game. GO MULES..Lambert tie.ha-ha