FB: Liberty League

[PBR...]

pbr checking in from nantucket....freezin cold and windy for the last week...although having a screaming hot fire and brandy/scotch does wonders!!!  wishin' hobart good luck this weekend pbr is sure tgp and the rev will have the game face on....here is wishing everyone at the llpp and d3boards happy thanksgiving!

[PBR...]

I love lacrosse as much as the next guy, and remember being ball boy for one of the Statesmen - Orangemen games when my dad was referee back before they started moving kids away from the endlines.  But c'mon!  Y'all are playing the top team in the country in football in a few days!  I came around here looking to talk pigskin.  I'll drift back to the OAC board and hope that some of y'all make it over to Alliance for the weekend.

JP,

The Rev very very nearly bought a ticket to OH to see the play-off game this weekend, but plans went south when a $540 ticket turned into an $800 in the time it took The Rev to look at the itinerary and click on the "Click here" button.  Damn.

The Rev is now thinking that Greyhound could probably get him from AZ to OH in time for the game if The Rev leaves on Wednesday.

But seriously, The Rev decided that he will spend Thanksgiving in La Jolla, CA instead of freezing his little altar boy off in the cold in OH or NY.

rev...try priceline.com and throw a bottom line px in there and see if someone smacks the bid...airlines are hurting go for it albeit you will probably have a layover somewhere throw a low ball price in there and see if they take it

[dlippiel]

pbr checking in from nantucket....freezin cold and windy for the last week...although having a screaming hot fire and brandy/scotch does wonders!!!  wishin' hobart good luck this weekend pbr is sure tgp and the rev will have the game face on....here is wishing everyone at the llpp and d3boards happy thanksgiving!

Sounds nice pbr hopefully you are enjoying your time there, fire, scotch and all. I would like to reiterate pbr's thanksgiving salute to all today. I wish everyone on the LLPP and their families and very healthy, happy, full, and safe thanksgiving. I am sure everyone's excitement for thanksgiving turkey is giving way to their looking forward to watching the lions!

[labart96]

The Rt. Rev., Garnet, and others...

No disrespect intended to any of you or to the board.  I was just surprised to find little discussion of the game.

Fair enough, but keep in mind that:

a) no one's giving Hobart a chance in hell (even in the LL and OOC games, even though Hobart usually finds ways to win, almost everyone, except for Hobart fans, ever believe they will.  Not saying Hobart will beat MUC, but just that in general, most folks doubt the team from the get-go);

b) it's a shortened holiday week so not a lot of time for posting in the midst of wrapping up work, heading to see family (i for on have a cross country flight before the crack of dawn tomorrow), etc;

c) i'll be posting a MUC-Bart preview later today/before I leave town for thanksgiving and will be most likely off the boards thru the weekend spending time with the fam; and

d) happy thanksgiving to all LL and OAC alums, fans!

[labart96]

pbr checking in from nantucket....freezin cold and windy for the last week...although having a screaming hot fire and brandy/scotch does wonders!!!  wishin' hobart good luck this weekend pbr is sure tgp and the rev will have the game face on....here is wishing everyone at the llpp and d3boards happy thanksgiving!

Thx PBR - tell your wife that you need to "go to the library" while you're out there in Nantucket (if you don't know the story, ask a local - it's a good one).

TGP is prepped for whatever goes down on Saturday.  Will just be an extra thanksgiving  treat to have Bart line up against MUC.

[Garnet]

The Rt. Rev., Garnet, and others...

No disrespect intended to any of you or to the board.  I was just surprised to find little discussion of the game.

Fair enough, but keep in mind that:

a) no one's giving Hobart a chance in hell (even in the LL and OOC games, even though Hobart usually finds ways to win, almost everyone, except for Hobart fans, ever believe they will.  Not saying Hobart will beat MUC, but just that in general, most folks doubt the team from the get-go);

b) it's a shortened holiday week so not a lot of time for posting in the midst of wrapping up work, heading to see family (i for on have a cross country flight before the crack of dawn tomorrow), etc;

c) i'll be posting a MUC-Bart preview later today/before I leave town for thanksgiving and will be most likely off the boards thru the weekend spending time with the fam; and

d) happy thanksgiving to all LL and OAC alums, fans!

Not offended in any way. Just letting you know that is how the LLPP rolls.  10% of the posts are football related the other 90% are not FR and U89 bitching with each other.

[rscl70]

Mount Union game notes for Saturday.

http://www2.muc.edu/ASSETS/969941FD789D46779491BA85E6AAFBD0/08fbgamenotes-secondrd-hobart.pdf

[mattvsmith]

The Rev is clutching to the hope that the Raiders have so vastly underestimated the Statesmen that they are all hungover for the game.

Obviously, The Rev has real love for his Statesmen and wants them to put in a respectable showing.  In a way this is like the first Rocky movie in which just surviving 15 rounds with the champ is considered an amazing triumph.

Hobart needs to show up in Alliance with the same heart that Union showed up with at the Boz this year, "Hey, we don't care what we're ranked and who they think they are...we're going embarrass them at home and ruin their season."

Does The Rev truly anticipate a Hobart win?  No.  Does The Rev hold out hope for a win?  Oh course, what fan wouldn't?  There is no such thing as a "sure win" and hopelessness is for the damned.

What would make The Rev happy?  For everyone to say that Hobart played a hell of a good game against MUC and that Hobart is the Real Deal.

[labart96]

Back by popular demand:

TGP's Weekly Bart Game Preview

#23 Hobart (LL Champions) vs. #1 Mount Union (OAC Champions)

The Hobart Statesmen (9-1) will travel to Alliance, OH this Saturday to play David to the Goliath that is the #1 Mount Union College Purple Raiders (11-0).  The Raiders have been the gold - nay platinum - standard of Division III Football since 1993.  In the past 15 seasons, Mount Union has advanced to the National Semi-Finals every year and has won the NCAA Championship in Football nine times including 1993, 1996-98, 2000-02, 2005 and 2006.  Last season, Mount Union fell in to the UW-Whitewater Warhawks 31-21 in the Championship game.  It was only the fourth game (regular and post-season combined) that the Raiders have lost since the 2000 season(!).

This season, Mount Union cruised past the ODAC Champion Randolph-Macon (6-5) in the first round to win 56-0 behind 290 rushing yards from All-American SR RB Nate Kmic.  Going into the Hobart game, Kmic is 139 yards away from setting the all-time Division III rushing record held by R.J. Bowers of Grove City, PA (7,383 yards).  The 5' 9" 193 lb SR RB from Delta, OH is a very quick runner and difficult to tackle.  On the 2008 season Kmic has gained 1,930 yards on 244 carries (7.9 average per rush, 175.5 per game) scoring 31 rushing TDs.

If that's not enough, the Purple Raiders also just happen to have one of most efficient passers in all of Division III.  SR QB Greg Micheli has accumulated a 77.2% completion percentage throwing for 2,791 yards (179-232) and 29 passing TDs to only two interceptions.  Micheli's favorite target is WR Cecil Shorts who's caught 58 passes for 1,190 yards (108.2 average per game) and 19 TDs.

Mount Union is coached by eight-time AFCA Coach of the Year Larry Kehres.  Coach Kehres has been at the helm of the Purple Raiders for 23 seasons, accumulating an amazing 260-21-3 record (.956). 

Sound too good to be true?  Just wait, it gets better.

Mount Union also possesses the #1 defense in the nation allowing a paltry 5.5 points per game.  In fact, so far this season only one team, OAC rival Otterbein (9-2), was able to score more than 13 points against the Raiders.

Given these insurmountable odds (pun intended), the Statesmen will need to play the game of their collective lives to upset the highly favored Mount Union.

Tale of the Tape

Given Mount Union's unprecedented run in Division III, it should not come to any surprise they have "Madden 2009" type of offensive (and defensive) statistics.

A closer look (aka attempting to find some kind of silver lining - regardless of how faint - for Hobart), brings a couple of interesting facts to light:

1.  Hobart has a slight advantage in turnover ratio.  It almost goes without saying that the Statesmen will need an almost perfect performance Saturday to play close with the Raiders.  The best defense for Hobart is keeping Kmic, Micheli and company on the sideline.  Rich Doyle can't really afford to throw any interceptions in this game, especially on Hobart's side of the field.  Nor can SO RB Andrew Marlier afford to fumble the football, without expecting some form of Mount Union points (probably a touchdown) as the punishment for these kinds of mistakes.  The Statesmen do have a ball hawking defense that's collected 19 interceptions on the year (both SR FS Lance Boyington and FY CB Drake Woodard rank in the top five in the nation in total interceptions), but the Hobart secondary will have their hands full trying to cover the very speedy Cecil Shorts.  Micheli has only thrown two interceptions on the year, but so had RPI SR QB Jimmy Robertson (named the LL Player of the Year) going into his game vs. Hobart.  The Statesmen picked Robertson off once and caused enough pressure in the pocket to have him pass almost 30 percentage points (40% vs. 69%) below his regular season average.

2.  The Statesmen must test the undersized middle defensive linemen (Hobart has a size and weight advantage on their OL - averaging approximately 6' 2" and 275 lbs vs. MUC's interior DT's that average approximately 5' 11" and 240 lbs) with runs up the gut.  Marlier showed great straight ahead rushing last week vs. Lycoming in his 24 carry, 96 yard performance).  Andrew is a not a very big RB, but at 6' 210 lbs, the Illinois State transfer isn't a "little guy" either.  Hobart will need to leverage this size advantage at the line of scrimmage and mix up plays to sustain drives and capitalize on time of possession.  Pass protection will also be key for the Hobart OL as MUC has accumulated 42 sacks on the season.

3.  Bend don't break - MUC has the #1 scoring defense in the nation, but Hobart's not too shabby only allowing about 15 points per game.  One interesting statistic not shown below is that both Hobart and MUC have only allowed a single touchdown in the first quarter all season.  For the Statesmen to have a chance, they will need to avoid falling behind by a large margin early.  If they can keep it close in the first quarter and half like they've done all season, the Statesmen will build some confidence.  Given that Hobart's defensive strength are its up the middle rushing and passing defense, Mount Union will likely attack off-tackle, allowing Kmic to bounce outside and break tackles en route to his trademark long TD runs.  Hobart's middle and outside linebackers and weak-side defensive backs will need to tackle and wrap up on initial contact, otherwise it will be a long day for the Statesmen.  Fortunately, Hobart has some great tacklers including LL Defensive Player of the Year and All-American candidate SR LB Justin Hager (114 tackles on the season to date).

4.  Special teams - Hobart has blocked four kicks this season, two more than MUC.  It would be a huge break for the Statesmen in this game to come up with either a punt or field goal block (although if I read the stats book correctly, MUC has only punted four times all season!).  I wouldn't be surprised either to see Hobart attempt a punt fake (or two) which they've successfully done in the past.  Given the long odds, Hobart doesn't have much to lose by going for it on a few plays.

Key Stats   MUC      HOB
Scoring Offense   47.6   PPG   24.5
Scoring Defense   5.5   PPG   15.2
Total Offense   554   YPG   328.9
Total Defense   163.3   YPG   273
Rushing Offense   269.8   YPG   136.7
Passing Offense   284.2   YPG   192.2
TD Scored - Off   74   TDs   32
TD Allowed - Def   8   TDs   20
Completion %   77.2   %   54.3
Turnover Ratio   Even   Give/Take   Plus 3
Time of Possession   31:44:00   TOP   32:19:00
Red Zone Offense   83   %   71
Red Zone Defense   69   %   75
Field Goals   50   %   61.5
PATs   93   %   91
Punting   36.2   AVG   35.7
Sacks (For/Against)   Plus 29   Give/Take   Plus 2


End of the Line(?)

The odds are not in favor of a Hobart upset this Saturday.  Mount Union hasn't gone on this unprecedented run without reason.  They are practically flawless in their execution and perhaps given the resulting "awe factor" (not to mention their outstanding defensive play), the Raiders cause teams to make mistakes that they cash in on with offensive points early and often in games.  Being that the game is in Alliance, on turf, will also provide MUC with a home field advantage of a large hometown crowd and the added quickness against a Hobart team that's used to slugging it out on the mud (and snow) in front of a handful of die hard Statesmen fans.

I watched some clips from the MUC season opener vs. Saint John Fisher (from nearby Rochester and a member of the Empire 8 conference.  SJF finished 7-4 on the season this year and did not qualify for the NCAA's) on YouTube recently.  MUC won the game 33-3 and held SJF to 28 total yards rushing and capitalized on three interceptions thrown by the SJF QB (one returned for a touchdown to make it 20-0 just before half-time).  In some of the out takes it literally seemed like the SJF QB threw the ball directly to the MUC DBs - in two clips I didn't see a SJF receiver anywhere near the ball, but that's probably an exaggeration on my part (and very good coverage on the other part).  Obviously, for Hobart to avoid the same fate, they'll need to do much better than 28 yards rushing.  SJF had some success passing the ball (231 yards), but they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with the interceptions.

Kmic is going to get his yards, he may very well break the rushing record in the first half, but Hobart will need to clamp down in the red zone to attempt to hold MUC to field goals instead of touchdowns.  Hobart will have its hands full trying to move the ball on the MUC defense, but if Offensive Coordinator Kevin Dewall '00 is his usual creative self, I am certain the Statesmen will come up with a variety of formations (note that JR WR Tyler Vincent lined up behind center and took some direct snaps and even completed a pass to Doyle from a Miami Dolphin "Wildcat" package, and Marlier ran several times from the "Maryland I formation" on several plays against Lycoming last week).

Hobart's chances may be slim, but the Statesmen really have nothing to lose other than the game.  If they somehow pull off the upset, it will be the greatest thing since sliced bread.  If they lose, it will sting for a while, but at least the Statesmen will have had a shot at the best team in the country.  If anything a "quality loss to MUC" is often rewarded by pollsters, etc from a national standpoint which will be helpful for Hobart getting themselves (and indirectly the LL) a little more respect going into the 2009 season.  Hobart still hasn't gotten the "can't advance past the second round monkey" off their backs yet - and aren't likely to this season - but this program has quietly become the most consistent team in the East Region tallying seven NCAA play-off appearances in nine years, including five consecutive from 2004 to present.  The Statesmen have a 72-21 record since 2000 (a 77+% winning percentage) and haven't lost more than one league game dating back to 2002.

Either way, this season has gone beyond the expectations for most Hobart fans, local and national pundits.  Given the question marks surrounding how the team would rebound after the record setting year under QB Andy Strom '08, this Statesmen team has accomplished a lot.  Hobart was not picked to win the LL title by the prognosticators (including myself) and they did.  They were not expected to go to the NCAAs and they did.  They were not even picked by the majority of D3football.com experts to win their first round game against Lycoming and they did.  This 2008 Statesmen team has had a great year especially the Seniors should be congratulated for their efforts. 

No matter what the outcome Saturday this group of Statesmen are winners in my book.

Go BART!

[union89]

The Rt. Rev., Garnet, and others...

No disrespect intended to any of you or to the board.  I was just surprised to find little discussion of the game.

Fair enough, but keep in mind that:

a) no one's giving Hobart a chance in hell (even in the LL and OOC games, even though Hobart usually finds ways to win, almost everyone, except for Hobart fans, ever believe they will.  Not saying Hobart will beat MUC, but just that in general, most folks doubt the team from the get-go);

b) it's a shortened holiday week so not a lot of time for posting in the midst of wrapping up work, heading to see family (i for on have a cross country flight before the crack of dawn tomorrow), etc;

c) i'll be posting a MUC-Bart preview later today/before I leave town for thanksgiving and will be most likely off the boards thru the weekend spending time with the fam; and

d) happy thanksgiving to all LL and OAC alums, fans!

Not offended in any way. Just letting you know that is how the LLPP rolls.  10% of the posts are football related the other 90% are not FR and U89 bitching with each other.

Not sure how or why a Union guy got singled out with the Rev. in the first place.

[Frank Rossi]

The Rev is clutching to the hope that the Raiders have so vastly underestimated the Statesmen that they are all hungover for the game.

Obviously, The Rev has real love for his Statesmen and wants them to put in a respectable showing.  In a way this is like the first Rocky movie in which just surviving 15 rounds with the champ is considered an amazing triumph.

Hobart needs to show up in Alliance with the same heart that Union showed up with at the Boz this year, "Hey, we don't care what we're ranked and who they think they are...we're going embarrass them at home and ruin their season."

Does The Rev truly anticipate a Hobart win?  No.  Does The Rev hold out hope for a win?  Oh course, what fan wouldn't?  There is no such thing as a "sure win" and hopelessness is for the damned.

What would make The Rev happy?  For everyone to say that Hobart played a hell of a good game against MUC and that Hobart is the Real Deal.

As I said Sunday night -- as long as Hobart players don't decide to become makeshift band members (a la the SJF mess last year) and play their hearts out, regardless of score, the Hobart team will leave with their dignity intact and do their fans (and their friends in the LL) proud.  There's no real measuring stick for a game like this, except for common sense, maturity and strong game play that a scoreboard might not be able to measure.  Throw statistics out the window Saturday, and you'll learn a lot more about just who your team is.

With that said, I hope Hobart can come out and make it interesting -- but that's Frank -- Fan of D3Football Competition, not Frank -- Liberty League Fan talking there.  The last thing I want to see here Saturday is some sort of eulogy about Hobart if they should lose the game because seriously, that team has mustered some great games and impressed all of us at certain times this year. 

Rev, promise me you won't go all Union-ballistic on your team Saturday, regardless of the score outcome...

[mattvsmith]

Rev, promise me you won't go all Union-ballistic on your team Saturday, regardless of the score outcome...

The Rev gets bent only when a large amount of time and money is laid out and his realistic expectation of seeing a good winning game are dashed on the rocks...4 years in a row.

In this case, The Rev will go ballistic if Hobart wins.  That would cause The Rev to want to see the next round, and The Rev would be torn because his desire to see the game live would contradict his desire not to jinx the Statesmen.

It's a curse, really.

[HScoach]

TGP:  Great write-up.  One minor correction though.  Mount lost their field goal kicker to an injury mid-season.  And unless he returns to the lineup this week, you can forget about a FG attempt.  Their replacement kicker can barely kick extra points.  And Mount has punted 14 times in 11 games.


Also, I participated in the press conference call with Coach Cragg this afternoon and thought he was a great interview.   Very lively and quite a sense of humor.  I've never met him, and know nothing about his coaching style or team, but after a 30 minute call, I found myself wishing him luck in future seasons.  Sounds like a good man. 

Here's some quotes from him:


On playing Mount Union
"You have to know who you are going against and it is a challenge.   It is a great challenge because they have great players and are well coached.  It has been a dream of mine to play Mount Union, we have a chance to make a dream come true Saturday."


On the status of Hobart"
We think our players our playing their best football right now; our defense is strong and offense has been up and down, but we have won some game are here right now and I am proud of our players and coaches and what they have done."

On strategy for Saturday
"We have to try and stay balanced and somehow keep them off balance.  We must try to find a way to be in the game in fourth quarter then see what happens."

On how your defense has 19 interceptions in 10 games
"We watch a lot of film and look for matchups and if there is something we feel like we can mix in with our base defense."

[theoriginalupstate]

hscoach-
Coach Cragg is very aggressive. On offense, defense and special teams.  He's always pulling something out of his bag of tricks.  His defense is very aggressive and often bring 4 to a side.  Seeing as you've seen way more MUC games than I have, have teams often come in and been aggressive on Defense?  Bart likes to bring the heat!! 

[mattvsmith]

Also, I participated in the press conference call with Coach Cragg this afternoon and thought he was a great interview.   Very lively and quite a sense of humor.  I've never met him, and know nothing about his coaching style or team, but after a 30 minute call, I found myself wishing him luck in future seasons.  Sounds like a good man. 

He is a good man.  The Rev hopes you get a chance to meet him someday soon.