FB: Liberty League

[pumkinattack]

I just have this view that any "city" that enjoyed success in the manufacturing, low skilled arena (and Bingo would qualify w/E Johnson, IBM and others all gone) got fat and happy with $45-$90k jobs and didn't see the hypercompetitive, global economy coming.  Governments all kept growing in ways that didn't necessarily make sense and wasted money on projects they shouldn't have, ignoring local infrastructure, and here you go.  That includes Bingo, Roch, Buff, Cuse, Allentown, Reading, Columbus, OH and all the other "rust belt" areas.  These places are literally at risk of taxing themselves out of existence if they can't find revenue growth from economic growth.   

Supposedly Binghamton is growing in defense w/higher skilled jobs (martin marietta and a few others), but what they really need to do is get on their knees and starting "showering" out of town SUNY Binghamton graduates with love.  All of my friends from hs either got out to coastal metropolitan areas and are doing reasonably to very well, or they stayed there and are bouncers/pt construction workers.  They're not going to keep locals, so you need to either entice young professionals, or keep the solid college graduates around. 

[Doid23]

I just have this view that any "city" that enjoyed success in the manufacturing, low skilled arena (and Bingo would qualify w/E Johnson, IBM and others all gone) got fat and happy with $45-$90k jobs and didn't see the hypercompetitive, global economy coming.  Governments all kept growing in ways that didn't necessarily make sense and wasted money on projects they shouldn't have, ignoring local infrastructure, and here you go.  That includes Bingo, Roch, Buff, Cuse, Allentown, Reading, Columbus, OH and all the other "rust belt" areas.  These places are literally at risk of taxing themselves out of existence if they can't find revenue growth from economic growth.   

Supposedly Binghamton is growing in defense w/higher skilled jobs (martin marietta and a few others), but what they really need to do is get on their knees and starting "showering" out of town SUNY Binghamton graduates with love.  All of my friends from hs either got out to coastal metropolitan areas and are doing reasonably to very well, or they stayed there and are bouncers/pt construction workers.  They're not going to keep locals, so you need to either entice young professionals, or keep the solid college graduates around. 

When I was moving back to New York a few years ago, my boss at the time told me to consider living in Binghamton (his parents still lived there, his dad was an IBM'er). I thought he was kidding and laughed, (he wasn't), and he said that you could get a ton of house for the money. True, but he hadn't lived there in 30 years. 5 years earlier in my second stint in the Capital Region, I ran the Upstate NY region for my company, and our analysis of the cities in UPNY mirrored your comments, and I told my boss that our review of Binghamton and Elmira led us to believe that they were basically barter economies, since as far as we could tell, for the most part nothing of note was being manufactured, and the entire region was a small level services economy.  Needless to say, that boss and I never got along.

When I moved to Dallas, I said to people how great it was to have no state income tax, and they said, yes, but they get you in the property taxes. They didn't understand NY, I told them that my Dallas property taxes were 60% of my NY property taxes for a similarly priced house. This tax issue in New York has to be fixed, it will hurt the NYC Metro area, but will lead to the demise of Upstate NY in the long term if not addressed.

[mattvsmith]

New York State, outside of NYC, is an animated corpse.
Norwich is so bad that the largest employer and the highest paying jobs are with the Norwich City School District.  Rev's street was once a really nice place and probably 4th or 5th on the list of places to live in town.  Now it is filled with drugs and unemployed woodchucks drinking beer on their porches.  It's pretty convenient for the worthless: 2 block walk to the County Office Building to pick up their handouts, two blocks to the Rite-Aid to buy a 30 pack of Natural Ice Light, and two blocks to their taxpayer-subsidized home.  The Rev would like to drop a nuke there.  The Rev probably won't even go home this summer.

NYC needs to lose rent control before that causes more condo developments to go belly up like the riverside ones did recently.

Actually, the Rev does have some fantasies about going back and trying to revive the area. I'm a firm believer that agriculture will make a come back and that high-skill manufacturing/machining will follow once the agricultural base is restored.  Once the agricultural and manufacturing bases are restored, then the service and finance industries can make a comeback.  Problem is that the government prevents any kind of entrepreneurial activity.  The government in the area would do everything to prevent success, because success means people will not need to depend on the government.  They need as many willfully unemployed and other assorted dlip-ups in order to keep the sheeple suckling the teat.  The worst part is that The Rev only sees the US getting in even worse condition than it is in now and the worse it gets, the more the government will act and make things even worse...snowballing.

[pumkinattack]

I agree that the rent control laws in NYC are a real haendcuff to true affordable housing, however, StuyTown was a bad buy, period.  It was the heart of let's get the rents over $2k and then turn them, however possible, and jack up rents.  This was done all over Harlem where buyers were buying properties at 3 cap rates (year one yield on PP, kind of the inverse of a PE multiple on stocks) with seriously dilutive, or negative leverage (e.g. the cost of debt, at a time when debt costs were at historic low levels, was greter than the return on the asset).  A lot of people are getting burned on those deals.

I've worked in leveraged, corporate finance and commercial real estate finance and a common bond/theme is where is intellectual capacity growing.  When working in CRE finance, one of my underwriting/analytical criterias, outside a couple of primary markets (NYC, LA, Chi, Boston, really that's it), I always looked at things like % of population w/higher education and masters, universities/colleges nearby, etc.  That's where the growth comes from.  That's why when I pushed bets on transitional retail/office/multi/hospitality, it was in secondary or tertiary markets like Austin and Seattle (even the Provo area of Utah, parts of CO, etc.).  Places where young, smart people were migrating to.  I hate TX because land is cheap, there's absolutely no barrier to entry. 

Interestingly, here in Atlanta, the first thing I noticed is that there is no end to the sprawl and the subdivision of governments.  It makes no sense that Johns Creek isn't part of Alpharetta, for example.  It also makes no sense that Cobb Co and Fulton Co (and Henry and Dekalb) can't get their act together and coordinate public transportation.  It's a joke.     

[mattvsmith]

Great analysis of the real estate market, PA.

The counties can't get their acts together to give decent service because they are busy pissing on trees and fire hydrants to mark their territory.  Once a bureaucrat gets a fiefdom established, no other vassals of the kingdom can set foot in his lands, even if it means mutual benefit.

[union89]

growing up in the southern tier

PA, where'd you grow up?  Rev is from Norwich, the Crown Jewel of STAC.

The Carousel Capital, home of Rod Serling and Jonny Hart, Binghamton!  Not a lot of love left for that area other than my parents, whom are still there.  There's just not a lot to like.  I'm trying to convince my mother to move, though not necessarily closer to me.  She's got a house worth maybe $90k-$100k and pays $3,600/yr in RE taxes, has to buy these ridiculous city sponsored garbage bags that are expensive and the local utilities are really high.  It's all a function of a declining population (in the late 80's when we moved to Broome Co., Binghamton had like 60k+ in population, it's now at or below 45k), so the remaining residents are bearing a greater burden per capita since the budget hasn't exactly gone down over that period and economic growth has declined.  Basically, it's a raw deal for older, childless citizens to live in an area like that.  Hell, my in-laws own a home in Cobb Co, GA worth 10x her house and they pay $4,500 in taxes and are in the #2 school district in the state (Pope).  

PA,
Are you sure you're not talking about Worcester, MA?  Those garbage bags that you have to buy at the grocery store are regoddamndiculous!!!

[union89]

New York State, outside of NYC, is an animated corpse.
Norwich is so bad that the largest employer and the highest paying jobs are with the Norwich City School District.  Rev's street was once a really nice place and probably 4th or 5th on the list of places to live in town.  Now it is filled with drugs and unemployed woodchucks drinking beer on their porches.  It's pretty convenient for the worthless: 2 block walk to the County Office Building to pick up their handouts, two blocks to the Rite-Aid to buy a 30 pack of Natural Ice Light, and two blocks to their taxpayer-subsidized home.  The Rev would like to drop a nuke there.  The Rev probably won't even go home this summer.

NYC needs to lose rent control before that causes more condo developments to go belly up like the riverside ones did recently.

Actually, the Rev does have some fantasies about going back and trying to revive the area. I'm a firm believer that agriculture will make a come back and that high-skill manufacturing/machining will follow once the agricultural base is restored.  Once the agricultural and manufacturing bases are restored, then the service and finance industries can make a comeback.  Problem is that the government prevents any kind of entrepreneurial activity.  The government in the area would do everything to prevent success, because success means people will not need to depend on the government.  They need as many willfully unemployed and other assorted dlip-ups in order to keep the sheeple suckling the teat.  The worst part is that The Rev only sees the US getting in even worse condition than it is in now and the worse it gets, the more the government will act and make things even worse...snowballing.

How has Foxwoods & Mohegan Sun influenced this?  If at all?

[mattvsmith]

How has Foxwoods & Mohegan Sun influenced this?  If at all?

U89, those are near Norwich, CT, not Norwich, NY.  This happens all the time.  There's also a Norwich, VT, which adds even more to the confusion.

[union89]

How has Foxwoods & Mohegan Sun influenced this?  If at all?

U89, those are near Norwich, CT, not Norwich, NY.  This happens all the time.  There's also a Norwich, VT, which adds even more to the confusion.

My bad....

[Pat Coleman]

Not eveery day in the offseason, but thanks for the heads up. 

Not expecting you to check every day but maybe before you ask the question.

[mattvsmith]

My bad....

No worries.  Happens all the time.

[labart96]

Anyone else out there that think the SB line of 5.5 is a bit high?

TGP is biased for sure, but can't see the Colts running away from the Saint.

[pumkinattack]

I would've taken Indy until the Freeney injury.  Even still, I don't see the Saint's D holding Indy below 35.  Manning is just on this year - the game against the Jets is kind of underrated that they dropped 30 with a bunch of red zone FG's early.  I liked NO, but that Minn game has me pretty down on them.  Take away all the stupid plays and fumbles and Minn wins by 10+. 

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

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Try Axe:

Axe Detailer, Cleans Your Balls

[Jonny Utah]

Anyone else out there that think the SB line of 5.5 is a bit high?

TGP is biased for sure, but can't see the Colts running away from the Saint.

I thought it was low actually.  Thought it would be hovering around 7 or so this week.