FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

I'm actually scratching my head at how the E8 with the addition of Salisbury jumps to 4th.  There are two things to remember:

1) Frostburg is joining, too; and
2) When a conference adds a team, there are actually more losses possible to be spread around since a conference can win all OOC games but can only go .500 in league games.  Here, they added TWO teams.

Prospectively, the W/L percentage in the E8 will actually decrease this year since it wouldn't be mathematically possible to go 66% in the W column unless every team won every OOC game.  Even then, it may not be possible (I'd have to do more math than I have time for right now).

There are two things that really make it a head-scratcher on a relative basis.  First, Bethel (MIAA) gave Mount Union a better game than Alfred, in my honest opinion (and Bethel was the MIAA runner-up).  Second, how can the E8 be considered so far ahead of the NJAC if the NJAC nearly got three teams into the tournament last year and the E8 (including Salisbury) got two teams into the tournament?  The only tool you could use would be performance of teams vs. Wesley, but that begs the Salisbury-centric question somewhat.

Anyway, I was just really surprised by the leapfrog scenario to the degree it happened.

[Pat Coleman]

2) When a conference adds a team, there are actually more losses possible to be spread around since a conference can win all OOC games but can only go .500 in league games.  Here, they added TWO teams.

This point is totally irrelevant to how strong a conference is. They added more good teams. They were already very good. Adding Salisbury only moves them up one spot.

It's not some mathematical equation based on the conference's winning percentage.

[Pat Coleman]

And Bethel is in the MIAC, not the MIAA.

[Frank Rossi]

2) When a conference adds a team, there are actually more losses possible to be spread around since a conference can win all OOC games but can only go .500 in league games.  Here, they added TWO teams.

This point is totally irrelevant to how strong a conference is. They added more good teams. They were already very good. Adding Salisbury only moves them up one spot.

It's not some mathematical equation based on the conference's winning percentage.

Right, but as I said, it's a relative question, too, for me.  When you say they moved up one spot, was that from the re-done midseason rankings?  I thought the E8 was 7 in the 2010 preseason?

[Frank Rossi]

And Bethel is in the MIAC, not the MIAA.

My apologies on that one.  I'm in between "In the HuddLLe" stuff and not focusing on my abbreviations.

[Pat Coleman]

2) When a conference adds a team, there are actually more losses possible to be spread around since a conference can win all OOC games but can only go .500 in league games.  Here, they added TWO teams.

This point is totally irrelevant to how strong a conference is. They added more good teams. They were already very good. Adding Salisbury only moves them up one spot.

It's not some mathematical equation based on the conference's winning percentage.

Right, but as I said, it's a relative question, too, for me.  When you say they moved up one spot, was that from the re-done midseason rankings?  I thought the E8 was 7 in the 2010 preseason?

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2010/ranking-the-conferences

[Frank Rossi]

For those not linking along, Guru's link actually meant, "Yes, Frank, you ignorant ****, the E8 was #5 in the midseason rankings."

The other issue, I guess, is that the Top 25 Poll seems to counter the idea with:

NJAC --
Montclair 12
Cortland 13
Rowan 22

E8 --
Alfred 18
Salisbury 30
Springfield 32
SJF 39

The voters seem to have more confidence in the NJAC than the E8, although if we're counting teams outside the Top 25, the E8 has 4 teams. It will be interesting to see how it plays out since there will be less head-to-head games between the E8 and NJAC this year if memory serves.

[Pat Coleman]

Kickoff's average ranking of Empire 8 teams: 79.3
Kickoff's average ranking of NJAC teams: 106.5

Now, we didn't always follow the numbers strictly because of head-to-head games and playoff performance and such, but these numbers, which rank all 239 teams, run counter to your idea of just taking the Top 25 poll.

Even if we were to just take the Top 25 poll, I note that 50% of the E8 got votes but only 30% of the NJAC did. I don't really think using the Top 25 furthers your point, but using the Top 239 definitely doesn't.

[Frank Rossi]

Well, tell me this, since I've never really asked:  What do the rankings exactly mean?

By that, I mean, are they predictive or representational of the present state of affairs as of the final game played in 2010 plus any conference shiftings?  I guess this would help me to get a better grasp as to how to view the rankings when I look at them.  And does that methodology change at all when the midseason rankings are laid out?  I look at the preseason poll as predictive more than representational.  I don't know if the 239 is predictive or representational, to be honest, based on your last comment.  Perhaps it really is comparing apples with oranges if they aren't approaching the analysis of teams in the same way.

[dlippiel]

Rochester -U of R plays three OOC games in 2011 against foes that pretty much beat them up in 2010. dlip looks for U of R to realistically have a shot at winning one of the three contests but is hoping for two wins  . Last season CWR (#61) rocked the Yellowjackets 45-14, SJF withstood a late Yellowjacket rally to hold on for a 35-33 win, and Alfred took the Jackets to the ****ing woodshed 51-14. Facing the same three opponents will be very difficult for Rochester but with a strong finish to 2010 U of R has some of us hoping for some noise here.
9/10@Case Western Reserve
9/17 (neutral site) SJF
10/29vs Alfred

I think you may have been looking at the 2009 results for UofR here, dlip.  CWR squeaked by, Fisher took them behind the woodshed and Alfred peed the bed in 2010.

Thanks for the correction KazOO +k. dlip apologizes for the mistake, he needs to fix it. He was pumping through the numbers so quickly to make the post. Bottom line the Yellowjackets are facing a tough OOC schedule this year and may not come out of it with a W.

[dlippiel]

I'm actually scratching my head at how the E8 with the addition of Salisbury jumps to 4th.  There are two things to remember:

1) Frostburg is joining, too; and
2) When a conference adds a team, there are actually more losses possible to be spread around since a conference can win all OOC games but can only go .500 in league games.  Here, they added TWO teams.

Prospectively, the W/L percentage in the E8 will actually decrease this year since it wouldn't be mathematically possible to go 66% in the W column unless every team won every OOC game.  Even then, it may not be possible (I'd have to do more math than I have time for right now).

There are two things that really make it a head-scratcher on a relative basis.  First, Bethel (MIAA) gave Mount Union a better game than Alfred, in my honest opinion (and Bethel was the MIAA runner-up).  Second, how can the E8 be considered so far ahead of the NJAC if the NJAC nearly got three teams into the tournament last year and the E8 (including Salisbury) got two teams into the tournament?  The only tool you could use would be performance of teams vs. Wesley, but that begs the Salisbury-centric question somewhat.

Anyway, I was just really surprised by the leapfrog scenario to the degree it happened.

dlip thinks it quite warrented taking into the account the addition of the Gulls. Being #5 with the addition of a team the caliber of Salisbury makes this conference quite strong and worthy of a move up. Granted dlip is not that knowledgable about many leagues as a whole from other regions. dlip thinks you have a good point thought in regards to the NJAC. 

[Pat Coleman]

Well, tell me this, since I've never really asked:  What do the rankings exactly mean?

By that, I mean, are they predictive or representational of the present state of affairs as of the final game played in 2010 plus any conference shiftings?  I guess this would help me to get a better grasp as to how to view the rankings when I look at them.  And does that methodology change at all when the midseason rankings are laid out?  I look at the preseason poll as predictive more than representational.  I don't know if the 239 is predictive or representational, to be honest, based on your last comment.  Perhaps it really is comparing apples with oranges if they aren't approaching the analysis of teams in the same way.

I think preseason rankings in general are pretty nebulous. Hard to quantify but it's representational based on last year's performance as well as a little bit predictive based on what we think might happen this year. But I would say it's probably more representational, frankly. Keith and I sit down with the non-conference records and head-to-head and playoff performance and definitely work from that more than from a "Well, Thiel isn't going to go 0-10 this year," kind of mentality.

But it's not a computer ranking, so can't ever really say it's purely one or the other.

[Pat Coleman]

There was a playoff game between the Empire 8 and the NJAC, played on the NJAC's home field, that weighed pretty heavily into that ranking.

[dlippiel]

dlip isn't trying to say that the NJAC should be above the E8 or even higher for that matter. He feels the conference rankings were quite accurate. Just saying that they are a strong conference with some high quality teams that are not only vying for the NJAC title but NCAA births and that Rossi's reference to them is appropriate. 

[Frank Rossi]

I think preseason rankings in general are pretty nebulous. Hard to quantify but it's representational based on last year's performance as well as a little bit predictive based on what we think might happen this year. But I would say it's probably more representational, frankly. Keith and I sit down with the non-conference records and head-to-head and playoff performance and definitely work from that more than from a "Well, Thiel isn't going to go 0-10 this year," kind of mentality.

But it's not a computer ranking, so can't ever really say it's purely one or the other.

Fair enough.  And by that answer, it does hit me that my attempt was unintentionally a bit of apples and oranges when I brought up the poll.  My "prediction" about where things will stand by midseason based on some of the analysis I've been doing heading into the season for voting and radio show purposes:

E8 - from 4th to 6th
NJAC - from 8th to 7th
LL - from 19th to 15th

The E8 went 24-5 in OOC games prior to the playoffs last year.  Based on the analysis here, I see 11 games this season leaning toward wins, 3 losses and 10 pick-ems.  

Sep. 3
Brockport State       Ithaca              (W)
Newport News          Salisbury           (W)
Utica                 St. Lawrence        (-)
Frostburg State       Geneva              (L)
Hartwick              Morrisville State   (W)
________________________________________
Sep. 10
RPI                   Alfred              (-)   
Buffalo State         St. John Fisher     (W)
Union                 Utica               (-)
________________________________________
Sep. 17
Norwich               Hartwick            (-)
St. Lawrence          Alfred              (W)   
Ithaca                Union               (-)
Husson                Springfield         (W)
Salisbury             Christopher Newport (W)
Rochester             St. John Fisher     (W)
________________________________________
Sep. 24
Randolph-Macon        Frostburg State     (L)
Hartwick              Mount Ida           (W)
Hobart                St. John Fisher     (-)
________________________________________
Oct. 1    
Springfield           Merchant Marine     (W)
________________________________________
Oct. 8    
Frostburg State       Wesley              (L)
Utica                 RPI                 (-)
________________________________________
Oct. 29
Alfred                Rochester           (W)
Salisbury             Wesley              (-)
________________________________________
Nov. 12
Cortland State        Ithaca              (-)
Springfield           Union               (-)   

Even if the E8 were to win 70% of the pick-ems, that would be 18-6 or 75% wins.  That's already down from 83% last year.  However, I think the LL has more experience back as a whole than the E8 this year, making some of the pick-em games actually break in the LL's direction (7 of the 11 pick-ems are vs. the LL).  In all, 11 of 24 games are vs. the LL, which means that nearly half of the E8's OOC games are against the #19 conference this year.  Compared to 2010 (and this is partially a function of adding two teams, lessening the OOC matchups), it seems like the E8's OOC schedule has actually retracted in its strength level a bit.  As much as you state Salisbury's addition is helping the E8, it might actually cause the E8 to slip on paper unless Salisbury can beat Wesley.

As for the NJAC, I just see a lot more recognition and top-level strength coming into this season than I've seen since Rowan was the 800lb. gorilla in the 90s.  Cortland, Montclair and Rowan seem to all be getting better, and it's driving the rest of the teams to, as a whole, get somewhat better with them.  I think the NJAC crawls up a spot since the number of OOC games in the NJAC doesn't allow for that statistic to be really meaningful until Buffalo St. leaves the conference at the end of this season.

We shall see, as they say.