FB: Liberty League

[Pat Coleman]

Yeah. This is a test.

[dlippiel]

it might actually cause the E8 to slip on paper unless Salisbury can beat Wesley.

Of course we know this most likely will not happen.

In regards to the NJAC this may be the year Rowan really puts itself back on top of the East. dlip feels they have been gathering some momentum as a program the past two seasons and after not getting into the tourney last year they may be quite motivated on a game to game basis to take back what was theirs over a decade ago.

[Frank Rossi]

Yeah. This is a test.

Yeah.  This is an improvement.  Windows 7 couldn't handle the scroll window for longer messages at all.  Now we can pull down the double-lined bar below the window to expand the scroll window.  Great addition.

[pg04]

Yeah. This is a test.

Yeah.  This is an improvement.  Windows 7 couldn't handle the scroll window for longer messages at all.  Now we can pull down the double-lined bar below the window to expand the scroll window.  Great addition.

The only bad thing is that now it is going to be harder to expose people without their email address.. haha 

[Pat Coleman]

You don't get to see those? I'll get them turned back on -- it's part of the TOS.

That setting went on and hasn't changed in five years, so I don't even remember where it is to go and fix it.

[dlippiel]

Test this conversation went way over dlip's head No idea what is going on.

[Frank Rossi]

You don't get to see those? I'll get them turned back on -- it's part of the TOS.

That setting went on and hasn't changed in five years, so I don't even remember where it is to go and fix it.

Also can't see people currently in the specific board and set of boards.  Was always nice to see if someone was there potentially replying in order to await their response before clogging the thread.

[In The HuddLLe]

New boards look good.

The ITH guys and I are busy interviewing some of the LL's leading playmakers in preparation for next Thursday's 2011 Season Kickoff show.  We'll be live on Blog Talk Radio at 7:30 PM ET and simulcast on several LL stations.

More info on the players and upcoming guests next week.  Less than 9 days until the first games!

[dlippiel]

Ah yes the new layout, very nice.

[Bombers798891]

I think preseason rankings in general are pretty nebulous. Hard to quantify but it's representational based on last year's performance as well as a little bit predictive based on what we think might happen this year. But I would say it's probably more representational, frankly. Keith and I sit down with the non-conference records and head-to-head and playoff performance and definitely work from that more than from a "Well, Thiel isn't going to go 0-10 this year," kind of mentality.

But it's not a computer ranking, so can't ever really say it's purely one or the other.

Fair enough.  And by that answer, it does hit me that my attempt was unintentionally a bit of apples and oranges when I brought up the poll.  My "prediction" about where things will stand by midseason based on some of the analysis I've been doing heading into the season for voting and radio show purposes:

E8 - from 4th to 6th
NJAC - from 8th to 7th
LL - from 19th to 15th

The E8 went 24-5 in OOC games prior to the playoffs last year.  Based on the analysis here, I see 11 games this season leaning toward wins, 3 losses and 10 pick-ems. 

Sep. 3
Brockport State       Ithaca              (W)
Newport News          Salisbury           (W)
Utica                 St. Lawrence        (-)
Frostburg State       Geneva              (L)
Hartwick              Morrisville State   (W)
________________________________________
Sep. 10
RPI                   Alfred              (-)   
Buffalo State         St. John Fisher     (W)
Union                 Utica               (-)
________________________________________
Sep. 17
Norwich               Hartwick            (-)
St. Lawrence          Alfred              (W)   
Ithaca                Union               (-)
Husson                Springfield         (W)
Salisbury             Christopher Newport (W)
Rochester             St. John Fisher     (W)
________________________________________
Sep. 24
Randolph-Macon        Frostburg State     (L)
Hartwick              Mount Ida           (W)
Hobart                St. John Fisher     (-)
________________________________________
Oct. 1    
Springfield           Merchant Marine     (W)
________________________________________
Oct. 8    
Frostburg State       Wesley              (L)
Utica                 RPI                 (-)
________________________________________
Oct. 29
Alfred                Rochester           (W)
Salisbury             Wesley              (-)
________________________________________
Nov. 12
Cortland State        Ithaca              (-)
Springfield           Union               (-)   

Some of these toss-ups seem interesting to me. I mean, yeah Fisher's lost some guys, but they destroyed Hobart at Hobart last season. Utica convincingly beat SLU (and to prove I'm not homer, Norwich killed the Wick). Yeah, things change from year to year, but these weren't real close. Also, Union gets a lot of toss-ups for a team that went 2-7 last year, and loses its best offensive player

[In The HuddLLe]

I agree.  LL should improve this season but until the W's come in, this league has a lot to prove, especially in OOC games.

I view SJF as the favorite in the 9/24 Hobart match up, although a big difference in that game was Hobart's inability to stop the run - not to mention three turnovers in the first half that set up the Cards pretty nicely.

Looking at the HOB DL, this year's squad is much bigger than last year.  You're basically looking at 6' 220lbs to 265lbs at DE and 260 to 300 at DT (excluding Johnson and Einbeck).  Last year Luber was the biggest DE at 225 and Rayhill was like 190.

Still give the edge to SJF in that game but with the turnover on their OL, new QB, etc. (not to mention Hobart will come into that game off a long bye and SJF could be banged up) I don't necessarily see another 20 pt win for the Cards.

Re SLU - hard to tell.  They have some swagger now but the QB position could really make or break that team.  The Pioneers return more players than SLU in my opinion, so I'd give the edge to the Pioneers in this one too.

As for Union, they'll definitely improve from last season's 2 wins, but I also see IC and SC as the clear favorites in those games depending on whether or not Union has success in replacing Coney.  Union could knock off Utica, but it will depend on the passing defense (Union was pretty solid vs. the run).

[Pat Coleman]

Some of these toss-ups seem interesting to me. I mean, yeah Fisher's lost some guys, but they destroyed Hobart at Hobart last season. Utica convincingly beat SLU (and to prove I'm not homer, Norwich killed the Wick). Yeah, things change from year to year, but these weren't real close. Also, Union gets a lot of toss-ups for a team that went 2-7 last year, and loses its best offensive player

I would say it's reasonable to give Union some benefit of the doubt this year, for one year. If they were truly that bad last year, they won't bounce back easily.

[pg04]

You don't get to see those? I'll get them turned back on -- it's part of the TOS.

That setting went on and hasn't changed in five years, so I don't even remember where it is to go and fix it.

Also can't see people currently in the specific board and set of boards.  Was always nice to see if someone was there potentially replying in order to await their response before clogging the thread.

You can always see who's online though at the bottom of the main page.  Clicking on that will give you a list and what they're doing.  I like that now you can see "members only" on that page.  (Unless it was there before and I didn't notice it!)

[hazzben]

Well, tell me this, since I've never really asked:  What do the rankings exactly mean?

By that, I mean, are they predictive or representational of the present state of affairs as of the final game played in 2010 plus any conference shiftings?  I guess this would help me to get a better grasp as to how to view the rankings when I look at them.  And does that methodology change at all when the midseason rankings are laid out?  I look at the preseason poll as predictive more than representational.  I don't know if the 239 is predictive or representational, to be honest, based on your last comment.  Perhaps it really is comparing apples with oranges if they aren't approaching the analysis of teams in the same way.

I think preseason rankings in general are pretty nebulous. Hard to quantify but it's representational based on last year's performance as well as a little bit predictive based on what we think might happen this year. But I would say it's probably more representational, frankly. Keith and I sit down with the non-conference records and head-to-head and playoff performance and definitely work from that more than from a "Well, Thiel isn't going to go 0-10 this year," kind of mentality.

But it's not a computer ranking, so can't ever really say it's purely one or the other.

Pat's comments on the representational v. predictive was my big question.

E8 rises to #4 last year on the Midseason, while MIAC falls from #5 to #7 and LL from #13 to #16.

This year, E8 comes in at 4, MIAC at 5, LL at 19.

My question is this. Could we ever have a Final Conference Rankings along with the Final Top 25 at seasons end. I think this would be helpful as you'd have the full seasons slate of non-con matchups as well as playoff data.

Frank says he felt Bethel played Mount tougher than Alfred. I'm not going to argue with that reasoning, but I'm a biased Royal Rowdie  Truth is, we simply don't know if Bethel was better than Alfred unless they met on the field. Different teams matchup with a common opponent differently, etc.

But what about what we saw on the field in the playoffs regarding conferences? Take the MIAC for example:

at the close of 2010 the MIAC put 2 teams in the quarterfinals. It's #1 (UST) beat the #1 from the NWC and the #1 from the NATHC  . It's #2 (Bethel) beat the IIAC #1 on the road, the CCIW #2 on the road and the MIAC #1 on the road (which really just tells us UST, Bethel and to a degree SJU were ridiculously close) and lost to the OAC #1/National #2 on the road.

To me, that makes the #7 midseason ranking pretty irrelevant. At the very least it shows that the top of the conference acquitted itself very well on the national scene. The bottom of the conference Hamline, almost upset the NWC #2 in the regular season (which I have to believe was a major anomaly).

I'd just love to have a Final Conference ranking that was totally representational (though obviously still subjective to a degree) to go along with the preseason which is both rep and predictive.

FWIW, here'd be my Final 2010 Conference Top 10:

1. WIAC - enough said
2. OAC - Elite conference champ and solid depth
3. CCIW - NCC took UWW to the wire, with a solid 2-4 teams after them.
4. MIAC - NCC was better, but I'd argue Bethel, UST and possibly SJU would top Wheaton, IWU, etc. If NCC regresses I'd argue the MIAC could jump them.
5. E8 - Alred wins the East if Mount stays home regionally, but it didn't stay as pristine in non-con once the regular season concluded (as opposed to where they were at midseason).
6. ASC
7. NWC
8. NJAC
9. IIAC
10. MAC

[Frank Rossi]

Some of these toss-ups seem interesting to me. I mean, yeah Fisher's lost some guys, but they destroyed Hobart at Hobart last season. Utica convincingly beat SLU (and to prove I'm not homer, Norwich killed the Wick). Yeah, things change from year to year, but these weren't real close. Also, Union gets a lot of toss-ups for a team that went 2-7 last year, and loses its best offensive player

This was not scientific, but to prove that there is no way the E8 can repeat the win percentage seen in 2010.  However, to back up some of what I "pick-em'd" there, I will say this much:

1) SJF is projected by many as the fourth or fifth team in the E8 this year, while Hobart is projected as the LL champ.  The game means more to Hobart because of the scheduling glitch.  While SJF is a favorite, the spread on the game should not be more than 10 points in SJF's direction, making a win at least somewhat attainable for Hobart.  If a game had the real possibility of being close (within 10) in my mind, I listed it as (-).

2) SLU/Utica is interesting because of the ends of the season both teams had.  SLU started bad, rebounded.  Utica started hot, collapsed.  Momentum is saying that this game could be much closer this year based on this, and SLU has a lot to prove right now to show 2010 wasn't a fluke.

3) Union -- if I defend this point, I'll be "making excuses."  However, Ithaca played like a team with a game under it's belt in 2010, and Union played like a team with no real scrimmage and no game.  I've never seen the team start a game THAT flat for Union -- and yet, that game was within 8 points at some key points.  The game is in Schenectady and is the third game this year for Union.  Ithaca has questions at QB while Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.  This game is pretty good on paper this year, especially if you believe Ithaca to be the fourth or fifth team in the E8 and Union as the second or third in the LL.  I expect a really good game.  Union/Utica is based more on the idea that we've never seem the teams play.  Union/Springfield was an extremely close game in Springfield until the very end -- this year it's in Schenectady.  I don't think expecting some close games in those games is too far of a reach here.

It's one man's opinion, but I'm not trying to homer the scenario here -- when was the last time Salisbury beat Wesley, but I'd still call that a pick-em every time.