FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

dlip said:

Prediction: Hobart Statesmen-45 Union College Football Dutchmen-21

dlip, your predictive powers are unbelievable! Real final score: Hobart 41 - Union 24

The Rev did not stay up to listen to the game, but checked the score first thing this morning. (currently 9:32 am, Korea time)

My general observation for you Rev is that Hobart is beatable, but more by themselves than other teams remaining on their schedule.  It was a very disjointed game for the Statesmen in terms of mistakes leading to turnovers, penalties and just plain offensive stifling.  Yet, the defense was tremendous for about 90% of the plays on the day.  For Hobart to get to 8-0, they need to remain in sync, minimize the penalties and reduce the turnovers.  I think Keith is way overshooting by placing Hobart at #15 coming into the week (see his "Around the Nation" column), but I will likely have room to place them at around #25 this week seeing that Augsburg lost to St. Thomas (they were at the foot of my ballot, and I will likely drop them out this week, while Hobart was just on the outside looking in).  Good team with a lot of work still to do.

[Pat Coleman]

Lot of things to respond to here.

One: The access ratio is 6.5, not 7.
Two: If you push the season a week earlier to expand the playoffs, EVERYONE pays more to bring their kids in a week earlier. It takes a lot to house and feed all those players for an extra week of camp before classes start.
Three: In 2007, Plymouth State had one loss. Whitworth had two overall, one regional loss. (A second loss was to an NAIA team, very much secondary criteria.)

[Bombers798891]

Man, the LL looks like Hobart and no-one else. Not trying to rip on anyone here, but looking at the point differentials for the other LL teams is sort of astounding.

[Frank Rossi]

Man, the LL looks like Hobart and no-one else. Not trying to rip on anyone here, but looking at the point differentials for the other LL teams is sort of astounding.

Usually, point differentials and win/loss records go hand-in-hand, though, no?

[Bombers798891]

Man, the LL looks like Hobart and no-one else. Not trying to rip on anyone here, but looking at the point differentials for the other LL teams is sort of astounding.

Usually, point differentials and win/loss records go hand-in-hand, though, no?

Yeah, but sometimes you have teams that are better than their record may indicate. I'm thinking like Brockport, who is 0-5, but has played a lot of close games.

[dlippiel]

dlip said:

Prediction: Hobart Statesmen-45 Union College Football Dutchmen-21

dlip, your predictive powers are unbelievable! Real final score: Hobart 41 - Union 24

The Rev did not stay up to listen to the game, but checked the score first thing this morning. (currently 9:32 am, Korea time)

My general observation for you Rev is that Hobart is beatable, but more by themselves than other teams remaining on their schedule.  It was a very disjointed game for the Statesmen in terms of mistakes leading to turnovers, penalties and just plain offensive stifling.  Yet, the defense was tremendous for about 90% of the plays on the day.  For Hobart to get to 8-0, they need to remain in sync, minimize the penalties and reduce the turnovers.  I think Keith is way overshooting by placing Hobart at #15 coming into the week (see his "Around the Nation" column), but I will likely have room to place them at around #25 this week seeing that Augsburg lost to St. Thomas (they were at the foot of my ballot, and I will likely drop them out this week, while Hobart was just on the outside looking in).  Good team with a lot of work still to do.

Yesteday Hobart, in dlip's opinion, played what seems to be their worst game of the season and they still won in somewhat impressive fashion over a very motivated Union team that threw everything they had at the Statesmen. Hobart made big plays and had a balaced attack (229 yards on the ground and 187 in the air) throughout the game. dlip gives some creit here to a Union D that, in the first half, had it's best performance of the season, and played hard throughout the game. With this balanced attack, Strang not at his best, and Union playing what dlip felt was their best game of the season (maybe not statistically), Hobart won and was clearly the better team. Union aired the ball out with (246 yards) through the air and ran the ball quite well with it's young combination of T.J and Darnyl (with a sprinkle of Hersey) accounting for about (151 yards before penalties and losses). To dlip, the game was won by Hobart with their pressure on Drew. Connelly came out early and looked amazing, but with the Statesmen applying no-stop pressure and great coverage from the secondary, Drew began to hold the ball to long at times, and got out of sync. dlip thought Drew played well but with Tyre Coleman coming on basically every play he understandably got flustered and tried his best to make things work.

Overall to dlip, Hobart is an excellent football team, the best Union will see all year by far. Are they beatable? Of course, aside from a few teams in the nation anyone is. Yet Hobart clearly struggled at times today, maybe was a bit disjointed, and still took care of a Union team that played as hard and as well as they have all year (considering this was the best competition they have faced thus far). To dlip, Bart has little to worry about the rest of the year and made it clear yesterday they are the hands down favorite in the LL this season.

[Frank Rossi]

Thus, Hobart has just received the dlip "kiss of death" and should avoid upstart teams and pianos falling from the sky for the next five weeks... 

[Frank Rossi]

For the first time in 29 years, no Florida team is in the AP Top 25 Poll.  It's not just our D3 teams in a state of flux.

[pumkinattack]

Had an interesting time listening to the Hobart game on my phone with speakers plugged in while driving a truck with all of my father's belongings from Binghamton, NY to Georgia (game finished about the time I was hitting Carlilse - home of Dickinson).  Yelling at Hobart in a massive vehicle on Rte 81 probably didn't inspire confidence in my fellow roadmates, but notwithstanding a 17 point win on the road versus a true rival (on the order of 100 games and the last decade or so have pretty much all been dogfights sans 2006 where we got rolled) I was frustrated by the sloppiness in the first half for the second week in a row. 

I think Dlip summed it up pretty well and hats off to Union for putting up a fight.  They really needed to get 6 on the Jr Woodard punt return fumble which gave U the ball on Bart's 22, but the D stepped up, led by my new man crush, Tyre Coleman.  Dude is legit.  Seemed like they had their best game out of both the D and Drew Connolly of the year to date and still managed to put the game away.  My only question is why have Drew in there with a minute left deep in U territory a 17 point deficit?  Seems like there's no upside to that and only downside.  So you get a TD.  You still lose by 10.  Alternatively, he gets injured or you destroy the backups confidence or something else goes wrong.  Just seems like a bad trade. 

Also starting to get that slighted feel with Hobart losing 3 votes in the poll while Alfred (yes, they lost 13 points) remains in the same slot after losing by two TD's to a team Bart demolished the week before on the road, then going to OT to beat a Hartwick team who probably fought really hard, but is still likely to have a losing record this year.  It seems to me that Bart is being punished for having the 8 game schedule because at this point in the season they should be getting more recognition on a national stage.  4-0 with 3 road games against decent competition (no ECFC or NEFC opponents, everyone in the E8 wanted to take credit for beating SLU at the beginning of this season, smallest margin of win in any of those games is 17 points).  It's not even like Bart has no winning tradition having gone to the playoffs 7 of the 10 years between 2000-2009 and these same pollsters had them something like 11th in the nation to start 2009, so it's not like they should be far off the radar screen. 

[AUPepBand]

Had an interesting time listening to the Hobart game on my phone with speakers plugged in while driving a truck with all of my father's belongings from Binghamton, NY to Georgia (game finished about the time I was hitting Carlilse - home of Dickinson).  Yelling at Hobart in a massive vehicle on Rte 81 probably didn't inspire confidence in my fellow roadmates, but notwithstanding a 17 point win on the road versus a true rival (on the order of 100 games and the last decade or so have pretty much all been dogfights sans 2006 where we got rolled) I was frustrated by the sloppiness in the first half for the second week in a row. 

I think Dlip summed it up pretty well and hats off to Union for putting up a fight.  They really needed to get 6 on the Jr Woodard punt return fumble which gave U the ball on Bart's 22, but the D stepped up, led by my new man crush, Tyre Coleman.  Dude is legit.  Seemed like they had their best game out of both the D and Drew Connolly of the year to date and still managed to put the game away.  My only question is why have Drew in there with a minute left deep in U territory a 17 point deficit?  Seems like there's no upside to that and only downside.  So you get a TD.  You still lose by 10.  Alternatively, he gets injured or you destroy the backups confidence or something else goes wrong.  Just seems like a bad trade. 

Also starting to get that slighted feel with Hobart losing 3 votes in the poll while Alfred (yes, they lost 13 points) remains in the same slot after losing by two TD's to a team Bart demolished the week before on the road, then going to OT to beat a Hartwick team who probably fought really hard, but is still likely to have a losing record this year.  It seems to me that Bart is being punished for having the 8 game schedule because at this point in the season they should be getting more recognition on a national stage.  4-0 with 3 road games against decent competition (no ECFC or NEFC opponents, everyone in the E8 wanted to take credit for beating SLU at the beginning of this season, smallest margin of win in any of those games is 17 points).  It's not even like Bart has no winning tradition having gone to the playoffs 7 of the 10 years between 2000-2009 and these same pollsters had them something like 11th in the nation to start 2009, so it's not like they should be far off the radar screen.

Sounds like Rodney Dangerfield moved from Mayberry to Geneva? Perhaps it's time for Rodney to come home.

"My psychiatrist told me I was crazy and I said I want a second opinion. He said okay, you're ugly too."
--Rodney Dangerfield

On Saxon Warriors!

[Pat Coleman]

Also starting to get that slighted feel with Hobart losing 3 votes in the poll while Alfred (yes, they lost 13 points) remains in the same slot after losing by two TD's to a team Bart demolished the week before on the road, then going to OT to beat a Hartwick team who probably fought really hard, but is still likely to have a losing record this year.  It seems to me that Bart is being punished for having the 8 game schedule because at this point in the season they should be getting more recognition on a national stage. 

If you think that's bad, have you looked at the coaches' poll? They have 17 more voters and only give Hobart nine points. And this is the poll that continually overrates unbeaten teams in mid-to-low level conferences, so why the hate for Hobart?

I really don't think anyone should get upset over a few points either way. Hobart had a good week, no doubt, but other teams had better weeks and there are going to be instances where Hobart gets passed on voters' ballots. Every vote that goes to someone like Huntingdon and Birmingham-Southern and UW-Oshkosh has to come from someone else in a similar area on a voter's ballot.

[Frank Rossi]

Also starting to get that slighted feel with Hobart losing 3 votes in the poll while Alfred (yes, they lost 13 points) remains in the same slot after losing by two TD's to a team Bart demolished the week before on the road, then going to OT to beat a Hartwick team who probably fought really hard, but is still likely to have a losing record this year.  It seems to me that Bart is being punished for having the 8 game schedule because at this point in the season they should be getting more recognition on a national stage. 

If you think that's bad, have you looked at the coaches' poll? They have 17 more voters and only give Hobart nine points. And this is the poll that continually overrates unbeaten teams in mid-to-low level conferences, so why the hate for Hobart?

I really don't think anyone should get upset over a few points either way. Hobart had a good week, no doubt, but other teams had better weeks and there are going to be instances where Hobart gets passed on voters' ballots. Every vote that goes to someone like Huntingdon and Birmingham-Southern and UW-Oshkosh has to come from someone else in a similar area on a voter's ballot.

That's a little over-simplified, though, Guru.  It's not just a few points at play -- it's actually 50+a few points.  The idea here is that there were two teams in the 14/15 region that lost.  If both teams were to simply fall below a team based on the losses, the team rising up would receive a 50-point bounce solely based on that drop (assuming all voters didn't have the lower team above the losing team in the first place).  I'd venture to guess that Keith was the only voter with Hobart higher than the national 14/15 teams.  The questions that remain are whether or not a team like Wittenberg would drop far enough on most ballots to give a team like Hobart a benefit.  If voters didn't drop Cortland (two losses) below Hobart, I'd question their sanity right now.  I'm not even going to entertain the "look who Cortland lost to" speech because my response is "who did they beat so far?"  Rowan isn't a world-beater so far this year.  And this guy was one of the guys highest on Cortland heading into this season.

So, for me and others, it's not a focus of a few points -- if nobody in the Top 25 lost, nobody would really be saying much.  It's the idea that teams are leapfrogging after seemingly equivalent performances and when there were up to 50 points at play.  Birmingham-Southern beat a winless team Saturday.  So did Oshkosh.  I don't necessarily buy the "Birmingham-S bootstrap by Huntingdon" based on the Wittenberg win by Huntingdon the further away we get from the Birmingham-S/Huntingdon game, but I understand some voters do that even 3 or 4 weeks later.  However, with all the points that were seemingly up for grabs, it's why people are a little wry about it, I think.  Losing points made it even more painful.

[dlippiel]

Good food for thought here. IDHO Bart should not have lost points but if one takes off the rivalry glasses the win over U, even in Shocktown, isnt all that impressive. Bart will have to win out this year and get a first round win in the tourney to get any respect in 2012. Its just the LL juicd that everyone is drinking thats all. Dlip has little doubt after Saturday that Bart will end the season impressing some by getting the auto bid and winning a first round game.

[Frank Rossi]

Video of Steven Webb's big run in the Hobart/Union game -- a real game-changer since Hobart's offense had been sputtering prior to the play, and it seemed to finally lift Hobart emotionally.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g62EBsub1jY

[mattvsmith]

Video of Steven Webb's big run in the Hobart/Union game -- a real game-changer since Hobart's offense had been sputtering prior to the play, and it seemed to finally lift Hobart emotionally.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g62EBsub1jY

Should have been Play of the Week.

Zzzzzzz.