FB: Liberty League

[ITH radio]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2016/09/19/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

We open with highlights, cover Wk3 games, then speak to SC HC Mike Cerasuolo at 23 min mark, SLU SR LB Jayson Leigh (a POTW candidate) at 41 and cover Pool C, east region and other scenarios with Greg Thomas (aka Wally Wabash) at 53 mark.

[wally_wabash]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2016/09/19/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

We open with highlights, cover Wk3 games, then speak to SC HC Mike Cerasuolo at 23 min mark, SLU SR LB Jayson Leigh (a POTW candidate) at 41 and cover Pool C, east region and other scenarios with Greg Thomas (aka Wally Wabash) at 53 mark.

Just a couple of follow up points from the ITH segment.

- A good OOC record from the league lays the foundation for potential at-large teams to have a good SOS (say, top 50 or so).  That's a nice chip to have, but good SOS definitely doesn't guarantee an at-large team.  While I don't think that a league's good OOC record alone can get a team in through the at-large process, a bad OOC record can drag down the SOS of member teams enough to be a de facto disqualifier.  The LL has avoided that scenario this year for sure.  I don't mean for any of that to sound like a downer- it's not.  I think the LL is in decent shape to place two teams in the field, so long as said second team doesn't accrue multiple losses. 

- Certainly the LL will want to add (at least) one team to the league to maintain their AQ status, but if they don't, I don't think all is lost postseason-wise for the LL.  As long as Alfred State, Finlandia, and Maranatha Baptist exist and stay independent, those three plus 6 LL teams should be enough AQ-ineligible teams for there to be one Pool B bid, which would essentially function as a de facto AQ for the LL champion, I would think.  That kind of scenario wouldn't happen until 2018 when the ASC gets their Pool A bid back.  I'm not sure what the AQ status for the LL is in 2017, but LL + ASC + Independents might actually make room for two Pool B's next year. 

[Jonny Utah]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2016/09/19/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

We open with highlights, cover Wk3 games, then speak to SC HC Mike Cerasuolo at 23 min mark, SLU SR LB Jayson Leigh (a POTW candidate) at 41 and cover Pool C, east region and other scenarios with Greg Thomas (aka Wally Wabash) at 53 mark.

Just a couple of follow up points from the ITH segment.

- A good OOC record from the league lays the foundation for potential at-large teams to have a good SOS (say, top 50 or so).  That's a nice chip to have, but good SOS definitely doesn't guarantee an at-large team.  While I don't think that a league's good OOC record alone can get a team in through the at-large process, a bad OOC record can drag down the SOS of member teams enough to be a de facto disqualifier.  The LL has avoided that scenario this year for sure.  I don't mean for any of that to sound like a downer- it's not.  I think the LL is in decent shape to place two teams in the field, so long as said second team doesn't accrue multiple losses. 

- Certainly the LL will want to add (at least) one team to the league to maintain their AQ status, but if they don't, I don't think all is lost postseason-wise for the LL.  As long as Alfred State, Finlandia, and Maranatha Baptist exist and stay independent, those three plus 6 LL teams should be enough AQ-ineligible teams for there to be one Pool B bid, which would essentially function as a de facto AQ for the LL champion, I would think.  That kind of scenario wouldn't happen until 2018 when the ASC gets their Pool A bid back.  I'm not sure what the AQ status for the LL is in 2017, but LL + ASC + Independents might actually make room for two Pool B's next year.

I've been saying the same thing.  The only way they don't get a pool B is if the ASC has a 9-1 second place team and the LL champ has 3 or 4 losses.  Plus the NCAA could adjust the pool B/C formula which they have in the past.

[Frank Rossi]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2016/09/19/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

We open with highlights, cover Wk3 games, then speak to SC HC Mike Cerasuolo at 23 min mark, SLU SR LB Jayson Leigh (a POTW candidate) at 41 and cover Pool C, east region and other scenarios with Greg Thomas (aka Wally Wabash) at 53 mark.

Just a couple of follow up points from the ITH segment.

- A good OOC record from the league lays the foundation for potential at-large teams to have a good SOS (say, top 50 or so).  That's a nice chip to have, but good SOS definitely doesn't guarantee an at-large team.  While I don't think that a league's good OOC record alone can get a team in through the at-large process, a bad OOC record can drag down the SOS of member teams enough to be a de facto disqualifier.  The LL has avoided that scenario this year for sure.  I don't mean for any of that to sound like a downer- it's not.  I think the LL is in decent shape to place two teams in the field, so long as said second team doesn't accrue multiple losses. 

- Certainly the LL will want to add (at least) one team to the league to maintain their AQ status, but if they don't, I don't think all is lost postseason-wise for the LL.  As long as Alfred State, Finlandia, and Maranatha Baptist exist and stay independent, those three plus 6 LL teams should be enough AQ-ineligible teams for there to be one Pool B bid, which would essentially function as a de facto AQ for the LL champion, I would think.  That kind of scenario wouldn't happen until 2018 when the ASC gets their Pool A bid back.  I'm not sure what the AQ status for the LL is in 2017, but LL + ASC + Independents might actually make room for two Pool B's next year.

LL retains a Pool A bid until after the 2018 tournament, even with six teams, per multiple sources.

[EDIT: Also, Greg, check math with me as I think 10 teams would be needed in Pool B to get a Pool B bid in 2019.  Ratio is # of Pool A teams / # of Pool A bids.  Pat I think just posted something to this effect.]

[Pat Coleman]

Right -- the two-year grace period is ... well, two years.

[Pat Coleman]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2016/09/19/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

We open with highlights, cover Wk3 games, then speak to SC HC Mike Cerasuolo at 23 min mark, SLU SR LB Jayson Leigh (a POTW candidate) at 41 and cover Pool C, east region and other scenarios with Greg Thomas (aka Wally Wabash) at 53 mark.

Just a couple of follow up points from the ITH segment.

- A good OOC record from the league lays the foundation for potential at-large teams to have a good SOS (say, top 50 or so).  That's a nice chip to have, but good SOS definitely doesn't guarantee an at-large team.  While I don't think that a league's good OOC record alone can get a team in through the at-large process, a bad OOC record can drag down the SOS of member teams enough to be a de facto disqualifier.  The LL has avoided that scenario this year for sure.  I don't mean for any of that to sound like a downer- it's not.  I think the LL is in decent shape to place two teams in the field, so long as said second team doesn't accrue multiple losses. 

- Certainly the LL will want to add (at least) one team to the league to maintain their AQ status, but if they don't, I don't think all is lost postseason-wise for the LL.  As long as Alfred State, Finlandia, and Maranatha Baptist exist and stay independent, those three plus 6 LL teams should be enough AQ-ineligible teams for there to be one Pool B bid, which would essentially function as a de facto AQ for the LL champion, I would think.  That kind of scenario wouldn't happen until 2018 when the ASC gets their Pool A bid back.  I'm not sure what the AQ status for the LL is in 2017, but LL + ASC + Independents might actually make room for two Pool B's next year.

I don't have time to run the math completely but I don't think nine teams is going to be enough to hold a Pool B bid. The ratio of teams in Pool A is going to be higher than that.

[wally_wabash]

Bah.  That's what I get for making assumptions without actually doing the math.  So let's do the math, assuming that the LL does not add a team.  This might be a little sloppy as I'm doing this stream-of-consciousness style. 

We have 238 total teams (sorry NESCAC) plus one coming on board with Brevard.  So 239 total (and I'm not sure if Brevard is immediately eligible or not, but we'll say yes...including Brevard makes this a "worst case scenario" for Pool B).  I'm also assuming Nebraska Wesleyan is eligible, which I'm not totally sure about either.  Again, that assumption makes this a worst case scenario for Pool B. 
In 2017, there are 25 leagues with AQs, with the ASC (9, their 10 minus McMurry for one more year), NEWMAC (7), and INDs (3) as Pool B teams
In 2018, there are 26 leagues with AQs, now just with the NEWMAC (7) and the INDs (3) as Pool Bs
In 2019, we stay at 26, but now the NEWMAC moves to Pool A/C and the LL (6) moves to Pool B with the INDs (3)

The ratios Pool A teams/Pool A bids are:
2017: 238 (that's all teams minus McMurry) - 19(Pool Bs) = 219 Pool A teams / 25 Pool A bids = 8.76 is the access ratio
19 Pool B teams / 8.76 = 2.2, so 2 Pool B bids in 2017

2018: 239 (all teams) - 10 (Pool Bs) = 228 / 26 Pool A bids = 8.77 is the access ratio
10 Pool B teams / 8.77 = 1.1 so 1 Pool B bid in 2018

2019: 239 (all teams) - 9 (Pool Bs) = 230 / 26 Pool A bids = 8.84
9 Pool B teams / 8.84 = 1.018, so 1 Pool bid in 2019, but man that's super close to being zero.  And might be zero if I'm missing teams that are bringing on football or the creation of a new league that I'm not aware of. 

[Pat Coleman]

Nebraska Wesleyan is eligible to be counted, Brevard won't be by 2019. But University of New England will be, starting in 2018. Belhaven should count in 2019 and McMurry in 2018, possibly?

[ITH radio]

Sounds like counting on a Pool B in a cpl years if you're the LL is a dicey proposition.

Hey PAC....

[Frank Rossi]

Nebraska Wesleyan is eligible to be counted, Brevard won't be by 2019. But University of New England will be, starting in 2018. Belhaven should count in 2019 and McMurry in 2018, possibly?

Do the NESCAC schools count in the access ratio computation?

[jknezek]

Hey PAC....

The PAC is overstuffed, but they really are in all the wrong spots for the LL as far as PA goes. Same problem the ODAC has right now, there just isn't a ready made viable alternative, but at least the ODAC holds on to their AQ once Catholic leaves. Maybe we will see an LL/ODAC challenge as the schools get desperate to fill their OOC schedules.

[Bartman]

Rumor has it that Vassar is considering using it's top Quidditch players to form the basis of a new LL football squad which could be our seventh....they were quite disappointed when they were told no brooms in the LL...but I think they are still up for it.......hey don't laugh we need to think out of the box

[wally_wabash]

Nebraska Wesleyan is eligible to be counted, Brevard won't be by 2019. But University of New England will be, starting in 2018. Belhaven should count in 2019 and McMurry in 2018, possibly?

Totally whiffed on New England.  I was (incorrectly) counting Belhaven as eligible already, but that errs against Pool B keeping a bid. By the 2019 season, it looks like there is a three-team cushion left for Pool B.  Add three or four more teams and the number of Pool B teams do not exceed the access ratio. 

Hey PAC....

The PAC is overstuffed, but they really are in all the wrong spots for the LL as far as PA goes. Same problem the ODAC has right now, there just isn't a ready made viable alternative, but at least the ODAC holds on to their AQ once Catholic leaves. Maybe we will see an LL/ODAC challenge as the schools get desperate to fill their OOC schedules.

I forgot to add this in to my follow up from ITH earlier.  Aside from the Pool B/tournament access issue that the LL is looking at, the larger problem from my perspective is how a 6-team league fills out a 10-game schedule.  That gets really tricky to do without getting into some kind of partnership with another league where non-conference games vs. Liberty League teams get intermingled with the traditional conference season into mid-October or so.  The NCAC and the 4-team UAA had such an agreement for a handful of seasons.  Once the NCAC went to a full round-robin and no longer had the space for a lot of games against the UAA, that really sent those UAA teams scrambling 1) for games and 2) for conference affiliation.  In the one season (2013) between the end of the NCAC/UAA agreement and joining the PAC, CWRU was only able to play 9 games and had to take on games against Linfield, Trinity(TX), and Puget Sound.  Luckily two of those games were at home, but that right there is the plight of being a very small conference.  Games are hard to come by and the games you can get are really hard games.  And expensive.  Wesley is really the only team that we've seen that's been able to withstand and even thrive with that kind of quirky scheduling. 

[Pat Coleman]

Nebraska Wesleyan is eligible to be counted, Brevard won't be by 2019. But University of New England will be, starting in 2018. Belhaven should count in 2019 and McMurry in 2018, possibly?

Do the NESCAC schools count in the access ratio computation?

Don't believe so, no.

[Frank Rossi]

Nebraska Wesleyan is eligible to be counted, Brevard won't be by 2019. But University of New England will be, starting in 2018. Belhaven should count in 2019 and McMurry in 2018, possibly?

Do the NESCAC schools count in the access ratio computation?

Don't believe so, no.

It's odd since they would qualify as a conference for Pool A, but they opt out.  Never have been sure how to deal with them in these ratios and access figures.

The other thing to consider is if one of the three football programs that are independents disband or align in a conference before 2019, then Pool B won't get a bid even with the LL.unless a new program forms quickly and qualifies.  I truly believe Alfred may be one of the few options out there for the LL that the LL college presidents could accept as a full-time LL member.  Let's see what plays out.