FB: Liberty League

[Jonny Utah]

"Congratulations.  You're the only conference in America whose one-loss champ isn't guaranteed a bid, and whose two-loss champ won't win a bid.  This is a great thing."

- Jonny "Utes" Utah

I never said it was great, but I'm not worried about it as everyone else seems to be.  And they most certainly can get 2 pool C bids.

"Everyone grab their panties, put them in a bunch, and run for the hills, the pool B bids are running out."

-Frank Rossi

The AQ issue is irritating but if I was a LL AD it wouldn't be my foremost worry. My biggest concern would be finding OOC games to fill the schedule in all those weeks where every other conference has started play. I know that's what concerns us in the ODAC, though we will still sit at 7 teams following Catholic's final, dismal, run this year.

That really shouldn't be a problem in the Northeast as it is in ODAC land.  In fact, there are probably enough day trip non league games to schedule if you plan right.

[wally_wabash]

Raising the number of teams a league needs to qualify for an automatic bid from 7 to 8 is interesting.  It pulls the NACC, MIAA, and ODAC out of Pool A, but also raises the number of Pool B bids up to 3 (I think).  Perhaps more during the NEWMAC intro period. 

[Frank Rossi]

Wally, if they're going to fix it, they'll probably shoot the number to 9 for Pool A to avoid having to make a change quickly again, with probably an acclimation period that allows 8 for 2-3 years.  The problem is this doesn't get Pool C expanded much.  The other consideration is the D2 "earned access" model that could help solidify the number of Pool C bids for a longer period of time while penalizing conferences that struggle to have teams of any level of strength.  Why not say, "If your conference champ has more than two losses against D3 opponents, your bid goes to Pool C?"  I say that for illustrative reasons -- not as some idea on the table.  But I think you guys get the notion.

Having said that, Jonny, have you not looked at how teams in New England and New York schedule games?  Only the first 2-3 weeks are allotted for OOC games.  Conferences with 9 league games only allow 1 OOC game.  There are simply not enough OOC games available in later weeks except for the new NEFC -- and they probably all burn a game against other New England conference schools.  The new LL at six teams would need 30 OOC games to fill 10-game schedules.  Could we see the WIAC double-up come into play (play a LL opponent twice, with only one as a conference game)?  Maybe.  That's a horrible result, though.  Granted, maybe Maranatha Baptist and Finlandia could provide quality OOC competition later in the season...

[Jonny Utah]

Wally, if they're going to fix it, they'll probably shoot the number to 9 for Pool A to avoid having to make a change quickly again, with probably an acclimation period that allows 8 for 2-3 years.  The problem is this doesn't get Pool C expanded much.  The other consideration is the D2 "earned access" model that could help solidify the number of Pool C bids for a longer period of time while penalizing conferences that struggle to have teams of any level of strength.  Why not say, "If your conference champ has more than two losses against D3 opponents, your bid goes to Pool C?"  I say that for illustrative reasons -- not as some idea on the table.  But I think you guys get the notion.

Having said that, Jonny, have you not looked at how teams in New England and New York schedule games?  Only the first 2-3 weeks are allotted for OOC games.  Conferences with 9 league games only allow 1 OOC game.  There are simply not enough OOC games available in later weeks except for the new NEFC -- and they probably all burn a game against other New England conference schools.  The new LL at six teams would need 30 OOC games to fill 10-game schedules.  Could we see the WIAC double-up come into play (play a LL opponent twice, with only one as a conference game)?  Maybe.  That's a horrible result, though.  Granted, maybe Maranatha Baptist and Finlandia could provide quality OOC competition later in the season...

Well I'm not sure if Ithaca is keeping their last game open vs. Cortland or not, or if they are moving it up, I assume they leave it as the last game (although it wasn't always the last game).  The ECFC and NEWMAC are going to need 3 OCC games as well, with the NEFC needing games early on as well.  Many of those teams (WNEC, Endicott, Framingham State) have shown that they want to play NY teams, with the opposite being true for teams like Coast Guard and Norwich who seem to shy away from them.

Playing d2 and 1AA schools also seems like some sort of recent Taboo for some reason as well. 

[Frank Rossi]

Again, though, focus on the TIMING of those open dates.  Six teams play OOC games over five weekends.  At least two of those weeks are times when surrounding conferences will almost exclusively be playing conference schedules.  If these other conference schools can fill their schedules in the first three weeks of the season without needing odd gymnastics to fit LL games midseason, where do you find OOC teams to play in those midseason weeks?  The new NEFC is the only real possibility, but it doesn't solve the entire equation.

[Jonny Utah]

Gotcha,

So please correct me if my math is wrong, which I'm sure it is, but is this correct in future OCC games needed for the east conferences each year?

LL: 5
CC: 5
Newmac: 3
ECFC: 2
E8: 2
MASCAC: 2
NJAC: 1
MAC: 1

And these numbers tell me that realistically, the CC might have to solve the entire problem, as they are in the exact same boat correct?

[Frank Rossi]

When UNE comes on board, CC will be 4.  I think with Catholic, NEWMAC comes to 3, as shown.  E8 moves to 3 once Ithaca is gone.  ECFC will be at 3 once Dean and Alfred State join.  Again, though, the Week 4/5 OOCs become slim pickings for the LL based on all of this.

[Jonny Utah]

When UNE comes on board, CC will be 4.  I think with Catholic, NEWMAC comes to 3, as shown.  E8 moves to 3 once Ithaca is gone.  ECFC will be at 3 once Dean and Alfred State join.  Again, though, the Week 4/5 OOCs become slim pickings for the LL based on all of this.

I think the CC is going to have six members including UNE (Curry, Endicott, Nichols, Salve, WNEU, UNE)

You are correct about the E8,

ECFC should have 2 OCC with Dean and Alfred State (Alfred state, Dean, Mt. Ida, Anna Maria, Becker, Castleton, Galludet, Husson, Suny Maritime)?

Not going to be easy for all the LL teams I agree.

[wally_wabash]

Wally, if they're going to fix it, they'll probably shoot the number to 9 for Pool A to avoid having to make a change quickly again, with probably an acclimation period that allows 8 for 2-3 years.  The problem is this doesn't get Pool C expanded much.  The other consideration is the D2 "earned access" model that could help solidify the number of Pool C bids for a longer period of time while penalizing conferences that struggle to have teams of any level of strength.  Why not say, "If your conference champ has more than two losses against D3 opponents, your bid goes to Pool C?"  I say that for illustrative reasons -- not as some idea on the table.  But I think you guys get the notion.

Bumping to 9 could be fun (for some).  I'll check that out and see how many leagues that removes from Pool A.  At the start of the AQ era, Pool B had 9 bids- this would push back to a time when a much higher percentage of the field was at-large. 

I don't think the preservation of Pool C ought to be much of a consideration.  I think the purest form of this tournament is the one where only conference champions play.  I've got no problem at all with the idea that winning your own conference is a prerequisite to winning the national championship. 

Updated to share what the field would look like if the Pool A requirement was for a league to have 9 teams...

I did this quick and dirty with the conferences as they are structured today, without worrying about the one or two teams that are probationary.  I'm just getting a rough picture here of what the field would look like if you needed 9 teams in your league to get a Pool A bid? 

You'd wind up with 15 Pool A bids coming from the following leagues: CC, CCIW, E8, HCAC, IIAC, MAC, MASCAC, MIAC, MWC, NCAC, NJAC, OAC, PAC, SAA, UMAC. 

Those 15 leagues contain 145 teams, which makes the access ratio 9.667.  Apply that access ratio to the remaining 93 teams that don't live in those Pool A leagues, and you get 9.62...drop the remainder, and you have 9 Pool B bids. 

That's 9 at-large bids available exclusively  to the 93 teams in the following leagues: ASC, ECFC, Independents, LL, MIAA, NACC, NEFC, NWC, ODAC, SCAC, SCIAC, USAC, WIAC. 

So we have 15 As, 9 Bs which leaves us with 8 more bids for Pool C to round out to 32. 

17 at-large bids, Frank!  That's a mock selection show marathon. 

[jknezek]

That's always been my issue with wildcards as the pro-playoffs have expanded. However, the thinking does work better in professional leagues where the conferences are somewhat similar in strength. DIII really doesn't work that way, so I have some sympathy for the WIAC/MIAC runner-ups. That being said, I don't see much of a problem so long as there are around 2 Pool C bids. I'd still give those up before giving up the A bids, but I think when push comes to shove in DIII it will go the other way. Some form of earned access will be created to hold on to the Pool C flexibility.

[d3fan142511]

ECFC will be at 3....Becker is leaving this year....Do not see much scheduling between the LL and ECFC in the future.

[Jonny Utah]

Gotcha,

So please correct me if my math is wrong, which I'm sure it is, but is this correct in future OCC games needed for the east conferences each year?

LL: 5
CC: 5
Newmac: 3
ECFC: 2
E8: 2
MASCAC: 2
NJAC: 1
MAC: 1

And these numbers tell me that realistically, the CC might have to solve the entire problem, as they are in the exact same boat correct?

Ok I will correct the Becker mistake (Frank was right):

LL: 5
CC:4
Newmac: 3
ECFC: 3
E8: 3
MASCAC: 2
NJAC: 1
MAC: 1

And so if the league allows Ithaca to play Cortland in week 10, that would mean another LL team would have to fill a week 10 spot.

[Frank Rossi]

Wally, if we have 17, we're making it a video presentation so we can all have Karl Rove whiteboards to keep track of the moving parts live.

[Pat Coleman]

I was trying to figure out why the Centennial Conference needed so many non-conference games. Then I realized you were referring to the CCC by the Centennial's abbreviation.

[Jonny Utah]

I was trying to figure out why the Centennial Conference needed so many non-conference games. Then I realized you were referring to the CCC by the Centennial's abbreviation.

Yes my bad.

And as the CC is on my mind, those teams also need to fill a non league game and most of those teams are a close (some of them day trips) to LL teams.