FB: Liberty League

[Ice Bear]

Or is it?...So the old saying goes something like..."Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Or is it?...One of the unwanted consequences of last year's Covid schedule cancellation is that this year's games are being held at the same venue as 2019. Last week Hobart was at Union and this week Union is at Ithaca, just like 2019. I like to study the most recent match-ups of opponents to gain a perspective of how it might go this time. In looking at the Box Scores of Union/Hobart from 2019 and last week's game I see that the Union game plan in each was remarkably similar. In 2019 Union QB Bellamy was 10/17 for 98 yards with no TDS. Ike Irabor rushed 35 times for 191 yards and 2 scores. Heavy on the run game. Maybe that's why Union coach Behrman stayed consistent last week with Irabor rushing 36 times. It worked again as he scored 2 TDS. Union fans, including myself, may have wanted more passing but the game plan was nearly identical. Behrman, without a guarantee, got the "same results".

What will the Union game plan be this week against Ithaca?  In 2019 at Ithaca, Union's Irabor carried the ball 38 times for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bellamy threw a little more 17/26 194 yards i TD, but that paled in comparison to Ithaca QB Joe Germanerio's 38/60, 397! With all the Union runs and Ithaca passes Union controlled the TOP by an astonishing 36:44 to 23:16 and won 31-21. Ithaca is still primarily a passing team but don't look for 60 attempts. They want different results...Union will again try to establish Irabor with Bellamy mixing in key throws.  Coach Behrman would be very happy if his mantra of using similar performance gets the same results.  Another Dutchmen victory.     

                                                              LET'S GO U

UfanBill......

Let's not go back to the original TOP discussion and how they didn't mean much for Ithaca since they run tempo and some games it was quick and some games it wasn't.  What I remember from the Ithaca/Union game from 2019 is that Union (especially on offense) had great execution, especially when they needed a big play.  Ithaca's offense this year is different than it was in 2019.  The QB doesn't run it, except on the zone read and maybe a QB ice/draw every once in a while. 

I think Ithaca's defense is better this year?  They did seem to collapse at times, versus Hobart and Bridgewater State specifically, but have also been better against the run and it shows.  But, with a back like Ike, all he needs to do is break one or make one nice cut and he can take it to the house at any given time.  Ithaca does not have an RB like that.

To add to Ithaca's differences from two years ago, the QB (Wingfield) is very good, very accurate, and makes very smart decisions.  Joe G. was a stud, and it is tough to say he wasn't one of the best players I've seen play at the d3 level, but he did seem "choppy" at times with the Ithaca offense.  Wingfield is smooth, and made 3-4 NFL style passes in the Hobart game that were impossible to stop (fade stop type passes).

Ithaca had also won nine in a row versus Union until 2019, and that was always hanging over their head.  Like RPI owning Ithaca, it had seemed Ithaca had owned Union, until that 2019 game where Union snapped the streak.

Ice Bear says regardless of outcome this should prove to be another great game. Ice Bear says we really are so lucky in this league to have four really solid teams that Ice believes fall anywhere from 15th to 30th nationally. This is some exciting ****ing **** and Ice is grateful for it! Ice is really excited for Saturday and is going to just try and enjoy the game, the student athletes busting their assess playing at a pretty damn high level to possibly find the LL champion.

Ice Bear will say one thing. His love of the LL has really grown, especially regarding the top four teams. Ice has no ****ing problem at all rooting for any of them come NCAA time (this includes RPI who Ice continues to gain more and more respect for).

Ice is just ****ing saying

[ITH radio]

Enjoying the chatter here. There's no more Pool B btw and I think Region 2 really only has one possibility for a Pool C team (W&J) and that's it. Maybe Hop gets in, but they are a potential stretch given their SOS is going to drop and their OOC win is against 3-5 STE.

We are going live at 5 (how local newsy) on our FB channel to discuss it if anyone's interested.

[Oline89]

Well since the Statesmen are out of the playoff discussion , I decided to look at the Regional rankings today.  Here is my take, aside from Del Val, the top 4 in the LL would pound every ranked team in Region 1.  I have seen complaining from the more western regions, but how did the LL, E8, NJAC and PAC all end up in same region? Does it matter for Pool C bid? Thoughts?

[UfanBill]

Enjoying the chatter here. There's no more Pool B btw and I think Region 2 really only has one possibility for a Pool C team (W&J) and that's it. Maybe Hop gets in, but they are a potential stretch given their SOS is going to drop and their OOC win is against 3-5 STE.

We are going live at 5 (how local newsy) on our FB channel to discuss it if anyone's interested.

JB and Frank, I heard you say this week is an elimination game for Union. So you don't think the Liberty League has a chance for a Pool C? A 9-1 Union with a loss to 9-1 Ithaca? They could potentially have 3 regionally ranked wins. Hobart, RPI and don't forget, Springfield. (if they win the NEWMAC) Are you basing this on SOS? Theirs will rise significantly in the next 2 weeks. I despise that SOS is a much too heavily weighted NCAA criteria. To me it's pretty arbitrary. For instance right now Muhlenberg and undefeateds like Birmingham Southern, Trinity(TX), Lake Forest, Central  and even Mary Hardin-Baylor have a SOS lower than Union. So the NCAA is going to deny UMHB if they somehow lose a game? I don't think so but that would be going against their own criteria.   

[IC798891]

Enjoying the chatter here. There's no more Pool B btw and I think Region 2 really only has one possibility for a Pool C team (W&J) and that's it. Maybe Hop gets in, but they are a potential stretch given their SOS is going to drop and their OOC win is against 3-5 STE.

We are going live at 5 (how local newsy) on our FB channel to discuss it if anyone's interested.

JB and Frank, I heard you say this week is an elimination game for Union. So you don't think the Liberty League has a chance for a Pool C? A 9-1 Union with a loss to 9-1 Ithaca? They could potentially have 3 regionally ranked wins. Hobart, RPI and don't forget, Springfield. (if they win the NEWMAC) Are you basing this on SOS? Theirs will rise significantly in the next 2 weeks. I despise that SOS is a much too heavily weighted NCAA criteria. To me it's pretty arbitrary. For instance right now Muhlenberg and undefeateds like Birmingham Southern, Trinity(TX), Lake Forest, Central  and even Mary Hardin-Baylor have a SOS lower than Union. So the NCAA is going to deny UMHB if they somehow lose a game? I don't think so but that would be going against their own criteria.   

In the LL, a 9-1 Ithaca is the strongest option for a Pool C

A 9-1 Union's ideal outcome is wins over

8-2 Hobart
8-2 RPI
7-3 Springfield

A 9-1 Ithaca will have have wins over

9-1 Cortland
8-2 Union (RPI has to win over Union to put IC in the Pool C convo)
8-2 Brockport
8-2 Hobart

I mean, it's not even particularly close.

A 7-3 Springfield isn't going to be RR. That means the best case scenario for Union is a win over a RR RPI and Hobart. But IC has the same Hobart win, so that's a wash.

So you're basically looking at resumes that have: a win over an 8-2 RPI vs. a win over 9-1 Cortland and possibly an 8-2 Union and possibly an 8-2 Brockport. Even if the 8-2 teams on IC's schedule aren't RR and RPI is, Cortland will still almost certainly be ranked ahead of RPI.

In fact, Frank, I'm curious as to why you think a 9-1 IC doesn't get in over W&J with a resume like that.

[IC798891]

They could potentially have 3 regionally ranked wins. Hobart, RPI and don't forget, Springfield. (if they win the NEWMAC)

But if we're talking potential 7-3 R1 conference champs, IC could also have Bridgewater

[Bartman]

Enjoying the chatter here. There's no more Pool B btw and I think Region 2 really only has one possibility for a Pool C team (W&J) and that's it. Maybe Hop gets in, but they are a potential stretch given their SOS is going to drop and their OOC win is against 3-5 STE.

We are going live at 5 (how local newsy) on our FB channel to discuss it if anyone's interested.

Bartman thinks this is only a good prediction if the second place LL team has two losses.A) If Union wins out that will leave Ithaca, RPI and Hobart tied as 2 loss teams and out of the NCAAs.B) If Union loses to Ithaca and beats RPI, Ithaca wins the LL and a one loss Union gets an NCAA Pool bid(2 LL teams in NCAA).C) If Union beats Ithaca and loses the Shoes, RPI gets the LL title via tie breaker(still must beat SLU trap game), and a one loss Union gets pool C(2 LL teams in the NCAA). D) If Union loses both of their remaining games , RPI(must beat SLU) wins the  LL with a tie breaker over Ithaca and IC gets the PoolC but only IF they win Cortaca(2 LL teams in NCAA).
Bartman thinks Scenario B is most likely having watched all of these teams in person, as the Dutchmen will have their hearts broken at Butterfield.

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear thinks if Union defeats IC (which is certainly a tall order) and than loses the shoes game (also assuming RPI handles SLU) the DUtchmen will have a decent chance at getting in with RPI.

Ice Bear says one thing he honestly did not think of (for some reason) is the fact that Saturday is basically it for IC. Their backs are against the wall in regards to the NCAA's.

Ice Bear sighs...

...as if the Bombers needed anymore motivation...****!

[Bartman]

Ice Bear thinks if Union defeats IC (which is certainly a tall order) and than loses the shoes game (also assuming RPI handles SLU) the DUtchmen will have a decent chance at getting in with RPI.

Ice Bear says one thing he honestly did not think of (for some reason) is the fact that Saturday is basically it for IC. Their backs are against the wall in regards to the NCAA's.

Ice Bear sighs...

...as if the Bombers needed anymore motivation...****!

Ice Bear, my Option C is your scenario where Union loses to RPI but they both get in, RPI with the automatic and Union with the Pool C(IMO). Ithaca will be like crazy animals at Butterfield on Saturday, they HAVE to win to get in. Union can live to fight another day as you point out. I think this is a very likely scenario.

[IC798891]

Ice Bear thinks if Union defeats IC (which is certainly a tall order) and than loses the shoes game (also assuming RPI handles SLU) the DUtchmen will have a decent chance at getting in with RPI.

Ice Bear says one thing he honestly did not think of (for some reason) is the fact that Saturday is basically it for IC. Their backs are against the wall in regards to the NCAA's.

Ice Bear sighs...

...as if the Bombers needed anymore motivation...****!

Ice Bear, my Option C is your scenario where Union loses to RPI but they both get in, RPI with the automatic and Union with the Pool C(IMO). Ithaca will be like crazy animals at Butterfield on Saturday, they HAVE to win to get in. Union can live to fight another day as you point out. I think this is a very likely scenario.

It's going to be very interesting to see how IC rebounds.

[Bartman]

I think Hobart has been in 3 great games against these teams, and I suspect Butterfield Battle this Saturday will be another great one. If Ithaca plays as well as they did against Hobart, they will win, but this game could come down to a tragic turnover by either team. I think Ithaca is marginally the better overall team at Butterfield(big benefit) , but Union has experience from 2019 and this season in big games...the coaches will make a difference by motivating and playing the chess board...a great D3 matchup, and the weather is cooperating. Ithaca 31- Union 28 with a game winning Bahamonde field goal with 10 seconds left....

[Jonny Utah]

Ice Bear thinks if Union defeats IC (which is certainly a tall order) and than loses the shoes game (also assuming RPI handles SLU) the DUtchmen will have a decent chance at getting in with RPI.

Ice Bear says one thing he honestly did not think of (for some reason) is the fact that Saturday is basically it for IC. Their backs are against the wall in regards to the NCAA's.

Ice Bear sighs...

...as if the Bombers needed anymore motivation...****!

Ice Bear, my Option C is your scenario where Union loses to RPI but they both get in, RPI with the automatic and Union with the Pool C(IMO). Ithaca will be like crazy animals at Butterfield on Saturday, they HAVE to win to get in. Union can live to fight another day as you point out. I think this is a very likely scenario.

It's going to be very interesting to see how IC rebounds.

Yea one thing I'm learning is that a real good defense is better than a real good offense, and that's what RPI has.  As long as they can have "4-5 big/lucky/well executed" plays a game your team can compete with anyone.  It does not appear Union has a defense like RPI has, but Ithaca is also pass first/run second while Union is the opposite.

All this means.....?

Wtf knows.  That's what makes this such a big, exciting game for all of us.

Any update on the RPI quarterback?  That is a HUGE factor.

[UfanBill]

For detailed assessments of Pool C projections read the GENERAL FOOTBALL/ Bracketology Projections page. The midwest boys do not favor the chances of ANY Region 1 or 2 teams to get a Pool C.  Midwest bias? 

[Jonny Utah]

For detailed assessments of Pool C projections read the GENERAL FOOTBALL/ Bracketology Projections page. The midwest boys do not favor the chances of ANY Region 1 or 2 teams to get a Pool C.  Midwest bias? 

Well the regional rankings are out (a few days ago):

Never mind I'm an idiot and had to delete the post.  I saw Mt. Union ranked 8th and knew something was messed up.  I haven't listened to the reasoning behind these rankings, but can only assume its another way for the NCAA not to answer to anyone or explain anything.  Part of the reason there were pool a bids to begin with (which I don't have a problem with).

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear says...here we ****ing go...

RPI @ SLU - Obviously a huge ****ing trap game for the Engineers...everyone's saying it (ok maybe 4 or 5 people). Ice doesn't buy that ****. George M or not, RPI goes up into the great abyss that is St. Lawrence and wins. Ice Bear says it may be close and that he really likes the improvement he's seen from SLU...but, it's not going to be enough. RPI 21-13.

Rochester @ Hartwick - Roch Cha has a nice week, 28-24.

Buffalo State @ The Pumpkin Patch - Pumpkins are ****ing pissed after last week and Krewson has another excellent game. Mother****ing Bengals suffocate under that Pumpkin D. 42-7 and that's with the Pumpkins feeling sorry for the Bengals going into the 4th.

Union @ Ithaca - Well...****. Ice Bear sees IC's backs against the wall...etc...etc...blah...blah. The Bombers simply pass the ball too much for the Dutchmen secondary and have a QB who is accurate and makes things happen. Union's passing game, regardless of numbers has been inconsistent and Ice doesn't see that changing, especially at Butterfield. Ice sees the U run game having it's moments for sure come Saturday and Andre Ross will also shine. With that said, Ice thinks that whatever has been bothering Bellamy continues (hoping Will proves Ice wrong and Ice will gladly eat crow). The difference is IC will have success through the air but will also exploit the Dutchmen's desperate defensive adjustment to contain the pass and have one or two big runs that will be that difference. IC 24-17.