FB: Liberty League

[unionpalooza]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

[Jonny Utah]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

Exactly but it kind of brings another question.  When a team is "ranked" does a pollster rank a team based on who they think is better, or who "deserves" to be ahead.  If we had to put actual money on who we think would win more games between Hardin-Simmons and Endicott if they played 100 times (lets say 33/33 home/away and 33 neutral site), how do you think people would pick?  If you asked 100 informed people this question, I bet more people still pick Hardin-Simmons to win more games (I think?).  This is the stuff that always intrigued me about the polls.

[Bartman]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

Exactly but it kind of brings another question.  When a team is "ranked" does a pollster rank a team based on who they think is better, or who "deserves" to be ahead.  If we had to put actual money on who we think would win more games between Hardin-Simmons and Endicott if they played 100 times (lets say 33/33 home/away and 33 neutral site), how do you think people would pick?  If you asked 100 informed people this question, I bet more people still pick Hardin-Simmons to win more games (I think?).  This is the stuff that always intrigued me about the polls.

If RPI beats Ithaca this weekend, I guarantee you Ithaca drops out of the poll but with heavy points  and a 5-0 RPI will be #22 or something similar. I'd like to say it is Eastern team bias but they seem to love Delaware Valley over both Union and RPI based on DelVals historical rep.

[Jonny Utah]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

Exactly but it kind of brings another question.  When a team is "ranked" does a pollster rank a team based on who they think is better, or who "deserves" to be ahead.  If we had to put actual money on who we think would win more games between Hardin-Simmons and Endicott if they played 100 times (lets say 33/33 home/away and 33 neutral site), how do you think people would pick?  If you asked 100 informed people this question, I bet more people still pick Hardin-Simmons to win more games (I think?).  This is the stuff that always intrigued me about the polls.

If RPI beats Ithaca this weekend, I guarantee you Ithaca drops out of the poll but with heavy points  and a 5-0 RPI will be #22 or something similar. I'd like to say it is Eastern team bias but they seem to love Delaware Valley over both Union and RPI based on DelVals historical rep.

Yea if RPI wins Ithaca drops out but then you get the next level of polling which is does RPI go above H-S and Endicott?  RPI's early schedule is subpar but none of that matters once the league games start.  I saw on Hanson's twitter feed a while back a post on how Union has one of the better chances in the country for a pool C bid and that is based on Ithaca's non conference schedule (Ithaca would of course have to win the league and go undefeated).  In the end these things all work themselves out and everyone gets a chance to make the playoffs.

[unionpalooza]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

Exactly but it kind of brings another question.  When a team is "ranked" does a pollster rank a team based on who they think is better, or who "deserves" to be ahead.  If we had to put actual money on who we think would win more games between Hardin-Simmons and Endicott if they played 100 times (lets say 33/33 home/away and 33 neutral site), how do you think people would pick?  If you asked 100 informed people this question, I bet more people still pick Hardin-Simmons to win more games (I think?).  This is the stuff that always intrigued me about the polls.

Yet another reason I prefer polls with actual, specified criteria, like the NCAA's regional rankings.  No clue if the D3F has any baseline "standard" pollsters are directed to use; suspect not.  Pat?

PS.  Looking at the regional rankings criteria made me sad again that we don't have an extra week and another 8 or so Pool C bids in the tournament.  Would be so much more fun.

[unionpalooza]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

Exactly but it kind of brings another question.  When a team is "ranked" does a pollster rank a team based on who they think is better, or who "deserves" to be ahead.  If we had to put actual money on who we think would win more games between Hardin-Simmons and Endicott if they played 100 times (lets say 33/33 home/away and 33 neutral site), how do you think people would pick?  If you asked 100 informed people this question, I bet more people still pick Hardin-Simmons to win more games (I think?).  This is the stuff that always intrigued me about the polls.

If RPI beats Ithaca this weekend, I guarantee you Ithaca drops out of the poll but with heavy points  and a 5-0 RPI will be #22 or something similar. I'd like to say it is Eastern team bias but they seem to love Delaware Valley over both Union and RPI based on DelVals historical rep.

Yea if RPI wins Ithaca drops out but then you get the next level of polling which is does RPI go above H-S and Endicott?  RPI's early schedule is subpar but none of that matters once the league games start.  I saw on Hanson's twitter feed a while back a post on how Union has one of the better chances in the country for a pool C bid and that is based on Ithaca's non conference schedule (Ithaca would of course have to win the league and go undefeated).  In the end these things all work themselves out and everyone gets a chance to make the playoffs.

I think that's because the Hansen ratings are just generally very high on Union, as they place a lot of emphasis on scoring differential, and Union leads the nation there, winning games by an average 44.6 points through five games.  That stat is crazy to me, though obviously partially a function a some cupcakes on the schedule, plus a defense that is beastly.

[Jonny Utah]

Speaking of polls.....

In FCS, Holy Cross was ranked 5th in the country last week while Harvard was ranked 24th.

This past weekend, #24 Harvard beats #5 Holy Cross 38-28.

The poll comes out and Holy Cross is ranked 12th and Harvard is ranked 19th.

Similar to Florida/Tenn, (and Endicott/H-S) just another example of pollsters not wanting to drop a team so far for one loss. 

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!  Come on Pat!!! Defend your poll!!!

Football polls are perhaps the most perfect example of confirmation bias in action - everyone interprets new information so as to confirm their prior beliefs.  (You could probably teach an entire class on cognitive biases simply by reference to football polling errors.). This is why Hansen's rankings are so interesting - you can quibble over the model design choices, but he's taking all the hot air out of the balloon, and just reporting numbers.

Exactly but it kind of brings another question.  When a team is "ranked" does a pollster rank a team based on who they think is better, or who "deserves" to be ahead.  If we had to put actual money on who we think would win more games between Hardin-Simmons and Endicott if they played 100 times (lets say 33/33 home/away and 33 neutral site), how do you think people would pick?  If you asked 100 informed people this question, I bet more people still pick Hardin-Simmons to win more games (I think?).  This is the stuff that always intrigued me about the polls.

If RPI beats Ithaca this weekend, I guarantee you Ithaca drops out of the poll but with heavy points  and a 5-0 RPI will be #22 or something similar. I'd like to say it is Eastern team bias but they seem to love Delaware Valley over both Union and RPI based on DelVals historical rep.

Yea if RPI wins Ithaca drops out but then you get the next level of polling which is does RPI go above H-S and Endicott?  RPI's early schedule is subpar but none of that matters once the league games start.  I saw on Hanson's twitter feed a while back a post on how Union has one of the better chances in the country for a pool C bid and that is based on Ithaca's non conference schedule (Ithaca would of course have to win the league and go undefeated).  In the end these things all work themselves out and everyone gets a chance to make the playoffs.

I think that's because the Hansen ratings are just generally very high on Union, as they place a lot of emphasis on scoring differential, and Union leads the nation there, winning games by an average 44.6 points through five games.  That stat is crazy to me, though obviously partially a function a some cupcakes on the schedule, plus a defense that is beastly.

He has his own poll separate from the rankings though.  It is actually interesting (his poll, not the rankings).  I mean the rankings are also interesting but I'm guessing too early to make sense (they don't).


This is his d3football.com poll submission

[Pat Coleman]

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!

They actually don't.

https://www.afca.com/grove-city-enters-afca-top-25-for-first-time-ever/

20   Hardin-Simmons (Tex.)   3-1   271   19   D. Howard Payne (Tex.), 40-33   Oct. 7 at McMurry (Tex.)   
21   Endicott (Mass.)   4-1   242   22   D. Hilbert (N.Y.), 66-0   Oct. 14 vs. Western New England (Mass.)
22   Utica (N.Y.)   5-0   170   23   D. Hartwick (N.Y.), 48-7   Oct. 7 at No. 19 Cortland (N.Y.)   
23   DePauw (Ind.)   5-0   132   25   D. Oberlin (Ohio), 66-7   Oct. 7 vs. Denison (Ohio)

[Jonny Utah]

I also noticed the AFCA poll has Ithaca ranked above Cortland.  Sometimes those goofy bastards get things right over there at the AFCA.  Hell they even have Endicott ranked over Hardin-Simmons!!!!

They actually don't.

https://www.afca.com/grove-city-enters-afca-top-25-for-first-time-ever/

20   Hardin-Simmons (Tex.)   3-1   271   19   D. Howard Payne (Tex.), 40-33   Oct. 7 at McMurry (Tex.)   
21   Endicott (Mass.)   4-1   242   22   D. Hilbert (N.Y.), 66-0   Oct. 14 vs. Western New England (Mass.)
22   Utica (N.Y.)   5-0   170   23   D. Hartwick (N.Y.), 48-7   Oct. 7 at No. 19 Cortland (N.Y.)   
23   DePauw (Ind.)   5-0   132   25   D. Oberlin (Ohio), 66-7   Oct. 7 vs. Denison (Ohio)

Ah you are right.  How the hell did I miss that.  Logan Hanson's computer must have gone back in time and changed something.  Anyway, Holy Cross is still ranked above Harvard, I double checked that.

[Pat Coleman]

Yet another reason I prefer polls with actual, specified criteria, like the NCAA's regional rankings.  No clue if the D3F has any baseline "standard" pollsters are directed to use; suspect not.  Pat?

That's correct -- we don't require the voters to use any specific criteria. Rank the teams from 1-25 in order of how good they are and who would beat whom on a neutral field. That's the guiding principle we've used on this poll for two decades.

I believe our poll is more accurate than the regional poll at predicting first round playoff winners as well.

[Bartman]

Yet another reason I prefer polls with actual, specified criteria, like the NCAA's regional rankings.  No clue if the D3F has any baseline "standard" pollsters are directed to use; suspect not.  Pat?

That's correct -- we don't require the voters to use any specific criteria. Rank the teams from 1-25 in order of how good they are and who would beat whom on a neutral field. That's the guiding principle we've used on this poll for two decades.

I believe our poll is more accurate than the regional poll at predicting first round playoff winners as well.

have to support Pat on this...at the end of the season the D3.com poll has been historically  better at predicting than NCAA regional rankings .......unfortunately the NCAA regional rankings impact Pool C selections.

[Bartman]

Game of the week is obviously Ithaca at RPI in Troy. Three of the D3.com contributors pick RPI to upset the Bombers. Our Contributors pick RPI by a 4-3 vote to win by an average of 7.25 points. Two of the votes for RPI are IC supporters(including  IC7)...are they uber objective or is it "anti-jinx" votes for their team, or are they just intimidated by the sterile, unfriendly, engineering personality of the EVAC  facility? I am rooting for LL standings chaos and will be wearing RPI colors and yellow sneakers(support for the Jackets) at the Hobart-Buffy game.  Votes updated tomorrow for new and /or changed picks.

[Jonny Utah]

Yet another reason I prefer polls with actual, specified criteria, like the NCAA's regional rankings.  No clue if the D3F has any baseline "standard" pollsters are directed to use; suspect not.  Pat?

That's correct -- we don't require the voters to use any specific criteria. Rank the teams from 1-25 in order of how good they are and who would beat whom on a neutral field. That's the guiding principle we've used on this poll for two decades.

I believe our poll is more accurate than the regional poll at predicting first round playoff winners as well.

This might be a silly question, but what is a "neutral" field.  Giants or Yankee stadium? 

[Pat Coleman]

Yet another reason I prefer polls with actual, specified criteria, like the NCAA's regional rankings.  No clue if the D3F has any baseline "standard" pollsters are directed to use; suspect not.  Pat?

That's correct -- we don't require the voters to use any specific criteria. Rank the teams from 1-25 in order of how good they are and who would beat whom on a neutral field. That's the guiding principle we've used on this poll for two decades.

I believe our poll is more accurate than the regional poll at predicting first round playoff winners as well.

This might be a silly question, but what is a "neutral" field.  Giants or Yankee stadium?

Sure, or Salem or Canton or any field that is not the home field for either of the participants.

[Machiavelli]

Game of the week is obviously Ithaca at RPI in Troy. Three of the D3.com contributors pick RPI to upset the Bombers. Our Contributors pick RPI by a 4-3 vote to win by an average of 7.25 points. Two of the votes for RPI are IC supporters(including  IC7)...are they uber objective or is it "anti-jinx" votes for their team, or are they just intimidated by the sterile, unfriendly, engineering personality of the EVAC  facility? I am rooting for LL standings chaos and will be wearing RPI colors and yellow sneakers(support for the Jackets) at the Hobart-Buffy game.  Votes updated tomorrow for new and /or changed picks.

You mispelled 'one of the nicest facilities in D3'. And it's ECAV bro, no EVACs needed, unless there's COVID, then there are still no EVACs because there's no entry.