FB: Liberty League

[unionpalooza]

Regional rankings her out. For reasons I do not understand at all, only 7 teams per region. 

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

Top seven were as expected, but I too thought there were going to be eight teams based on a recent podcast with Matt Moore who is the chair of the Division III football championship committee.  There are still more critical games to be played.

https://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2023/10/26/atn-podcast-340-a-chat-with-the-chair/

I guess we shouldn't be surprised - Matt Moore didn't even seem to know how many the RRs would/should rank.  It seems to me like the NCAA committees just make this stuff up as they go.  (Any rationale approach would weight the number of RR teams per region by the size of that region, as in some past years.). I thought Pat's podcast demonstrated that the NCAA infrastructure just has no interest in being thoughtful about these selection issues, even apart from the annoying stuff actually written into the NCAA's rules (capping the tourney at 32, the 500 mile rule, etc.).

[unionpalooza]

Not sure if I'm being homerish, but I don't expect as close a game with the RPI/Hobart clash this weekend as everyone else. The common opponents scores are pretty similar for both teams and on paper, this could be a nail biter, but I just have a feeling RPI will come out guns ablazing and looking to dominate. Looks like the weather will be relatively cooperative given a November game in Geneva, and I just feel like RPI will be firing on all cylinders and will win by 14+. Just my $.02.

Mach, this is my intuition too.  On paper very even, but RPI seems like it has and will reach for an extra gear that Hobart may not have.

[IC798891]

This seems to pretty much end all hope of an 8-2, 3rd place LL team being RR, which puts a slight damper on Union's Pool C chances at 9-1

Grove City is going to stay ahead of any 8-2 LL team. So is Hopkins and Susquehanna.

You've got to hope that either:

Muhlenberg drops out by virtue of a loss to Franklin and Marshall — without F&M replacing them

Cortland beats Brockport (the only hope to keep the Golden Eagles from being 9-1), but then loses to Ithaca by enough that the Committee uses that to drop them behind the LL team.

That said, a Union with a 1-1 record against IC and Springfield will still be a great Pool C candidate

[Ice Bear]

Not sure if I'm being homerish, but I don't expect as close a game with the RPI/Hobart clash this weekend as everyone else. The common opponents scores are pretty similar for both teams and on paper, this could be a nail biter, but I just have a feeling RPI will come out guns ablazing and looking to dominate. Looks like the weather will be relatively cooperative given a November game in Geneva, and I just feel like RPI will be firing on all cylinders and will win by 14+. Just my $.02.

I don't think you are Mach. I do believe this is a real possibility. I feel like this could be another dangerous RPI team that, while we all know they are a very good football team, they may be even better than that relating to our region. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win by a decent margin. I think a lot of things are at play here. Like I said before, if Hobart can't throw the ball with some success it may be a long day.

From what I've seen Hobart has many good athletes and solid football players. Sometimes even with that it's hard to find the recipe for success. I believe Hobart comes out VERY fired up as it's their last chance at relevancy regarding the big four of the LL. Question is, can they sustain that energy even when a composed RPI punches them in them in the mouth.

[Bartman]

Regional rankings her out. For reasons I do not understand at all, only 7 teams per region. 

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

I just checked in on the RR. What's with putting them in alphabetical order? I honestly don't remember , but was this always done for the first RR? Congrats to Ithaca and Union, but I personally think RPI should be ahead of Union...despite the sometimes misleading  way SOS is calculated.

[Bartman]

Not sure if I'm being homerish, but I don't expect as close a game with the RPI/Hobart clash this weekend as everyone else. The common opponents scores are pretty similar for both teams and on paper, this could be a nail biter, but I just have a feeling RPI will come out guns ablazing and looking to dominate. Looks like the weather will be relatively cooperative given a November game in Geneva, and I just feel like RPI will be firing on all cylinders and will win by 14+. Just my $.02.

I'm sure Mach, you are being totally homerish. Although, if Hobart plays like they did against Union in the second half, I think it might be 21+. The  Boz has almost always been protected when RPI comes into town. I'm expecting, hoping, pleading that the boys will respond. 

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings her out. For reasons I do not understand at all, only 7 teams per region. 

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

I just checked in on the RR. What's with putting them in alphabetical order? I honestly don't remember , but was this always done for the first RR? Congrats to Ithaca and Union, but I personally think RPI should be ahead of Union...despite the sometimes misleading  way SOS is calculated.

Yes, starting in 2021.

[Bartman]

Regional rankings her out. For reasons I do not understand at all, only 7 teams per region. 

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

I just checked in on the RR. What's with putting them in alphabetical order? I honestly don't remember , but was this always done for the first RR? Congrats to Ithaca and Union, but I personally think RPI should be ahead of Union...despite the sometimes misleading  way SOS is calculated.

Yes, starting in 2021.

Thanks Pat, I'm just slipping , don't mind me.

[UfanBill]

If you look back at the Regional Rankings for previous years you will see that the first ranking often holds only some semblance to the final ranking. The NCAA regional ranking committees have lenience in making the rankings anything they want. More than once a team that has not appeared in the first or even second ranking shows up in the final if the committee wants to move a certain team up. What they'll do is suddenly put an 8-2 opponent on the ranking to give a team another RR win. That's how an 8-2 Union or 8-2 RPI for example could show up in the final ranking if they wanted 9-1 RPI or 9-1 Union to have another Regional win. The fact that Union (rather than Brockport) is ranked now is a good sign that a 9-1 LL runner-up is going to stay high on their radar.   

[IC798891]

If you look back at the Regional Rankings for previous years you will see that the first ranking often holds only some semblance to the final ranking. The NCAA regional ranking committees have lenience in making the rankings anything they want. More than once a team that has not appeared in the first or even second ranking shows up in the final if the committee wants to move a certain team up. What they'll do is suddenly put an 8-2 opponent on the ranking to give a team another RR win. That's how an 8-2 Union or 8-2 RPI for example could show up in the final ranking if they wanted 9-1 RPI or 9-1 Union to have another Regional win. The fact that Union (rather than Brockport) is ranked now is a good sign that a 9-1 LL runner-up is going to stay high on their radar.   

Yeah, but who do you see dropping out for this 8-2 LL team?

[unionpalooza]

If you look back at the Regional Rankings for previous years you will see that the first ranking often holds only some semblance to the final ranking. The NCAA regional ranking committees have lenience in making the rankings anything they want. More than once a team that has not appeared in the first or even second ranking shows up in the final if the committee wants to move a certain team up. What they'll do is suddenly put an 8-2 opponent on the ranking to give a team another RR win. That's how an 8-2 Union or 8-2 RPI for example could show up in the final ranking if they wanted 9-1 RPI or 9-1 Union to have another Regional win. The fact that Union (rather than Brockport) is ranked now is a good sign that a 9-1 LL runner-up is going to stay high on their radar.   

Yeah, but who do you see dropping out for this 8-2 LL team?

I just don't see an 8-2 RPI being regionally ranked.  An 8-2 Union, maybe, but very unlikely.

Six teams are a lock - Ithaca, Grove City, JHU, Susq, the Brockport/Cortland winner, and a 9-1 Union/RPI winner. 

Thereafter you're going probably to have a 9-1 Muhlenberg, the Brockport/Cortland loser (B would be 8-2, Cortland 8-2 or 7-3), the 8-2 Union/RPI loser, a Carnegie Mellon/CWRU winner (either a 9-1 CMU or 8-2 CWRU), and an 8-2 W&J.

I think a 9-1 Muhlenberg probably takes the seventh spot in any of these permutations, except for an 8-2 Cortland that loses to Brockport but bears Ithaca, who then probably gets the nod.  If that doesn't happen, maybe the RRC would elevate a 8-2 Union with a RR win over Springfield or 9-1 Muhlenberg team with no RR wins, but no way it elevates an 8-2 RPI over them.

I think things change a little bit is R2 ends up with 8 or 9 teams regionally ranked.  (No clue if there is any chance of that.). If so, I think an 8-2 Union would squeeze in there (giving a 9-1 RPI a RR win, and thus a Pool C shot).  An 8-2 RPI probably is right on the fence (and would probably ice a 9-1 Union's Pool C bid, since that would give them 2 RR wins).

In any event, if you're an RPI or Union fan, from a Pool C perspective, you're rooting for:

- RPI to beat Hobart
- Cortland to beat Brockport
- Ithaca to beat Cortland
- Muhlenberg to stumble against F&M or Montclair
- Case Western to beat CMU
- More than 7 teams to be regionally ranked in the final RRs

An 8-2 Cortland team that loses to Brockport but beats Ithaca is your nightmare, because it probably blocks a 9-1 LL runner-up from even being considered.

[UfanBill]

+k for your work on those Region 2 Pool C scenarios palooza. Thanks...I agree 100% with what you've compiled. 

[IC798891]

If you look back at the Regional Rankings for previous years you will see that the first ranking often holds only some semblance to the final ranking. The NCAA regional ranking committees have lenience in making the rankings anything they want. More than once a team that has not appeared in the first or even second ranking shows up in the final if the committee wants to move a certain team up. What they'll do is suddenly put an 8-2 opponent on the ranking to give a team another RR win. That's how an 8-2 Union or 8-2 RPI for example could show up in the final ranking if they wanted 9-1 RPI or 9-1 Union to have another Regional win. The fact that Union (rather than Brockport) is ranked now is a good sign that a 9-1 LL runner-up is going to stay high on their radar.   

Yeah, but who do you see dropping out for this 8-2 LL team?

I just don't see an 8-2 RPI being regionally ranked.  An 8-2 Union, maybe, but very unlikely.

Six teams are a lock - Ithaca, Grove City, JHU, Susq, the Brockport/Cortland winner, and a 9-1 Union/RPI winner. 

Thereafter you're going probably to have a 9-1 Muhlenberg, the Brockport/Cortland loser (B would be 8-2, Cortland 8-2 or 7-3), the 8-2 Union/RPI loser, a Carnegie Mellon/CWRU winner (either a 9-1 CMU or 8-2 CWRU), and an 8-2 W&J.

I think a 9-1 Muhlenberg probably takes the seventh spot in any of these permutations, except for an 8-2 Cortland that loses to Brockport but bears Ithaca, who then probably gets the nod.  If that doesn't happen, maybe the RRC would elevate a 8-2 Union with a RR win over Springfield or 9-1 Muhlenberg team with no RR wins, but no way it elevates an 8-2 RPI over them.

I think things change a little bit is R2 ends up with 8 or 9 teams regionally ranked.  (No clue if there is any chance of that.). If so, I think an 8-2 Union would squeeze in there (giving a 9-1 RPI a RR win, and thus a Pool C shot).  An 8-2 RPI probably is right on the fence (and would probably ice a 9-1 Union's Pool C bid, since that would give them 2 RR wins).

In any event, if you're an RPI or Union fan, from a Pool C perspective, you're rooting for:

- RPI to beat Hobart
- Cortland to beat Brockport
- Ithaca to beat Cortland
- Muhlenberg to stumble against F&M or Montclair
- Case Western to beat CMU
- More than 7 teams to be regionally ranked in the final RRs

An 8-2 Cortland team that loses to Brockport but beats Ithaca is your nightmare, because it probably blocks a 9-1 LL runner-up from even being considered.

Palooza and I don't agree on much, but this is basically dead on.

The only possibility where Cortland beats Brockport and loses to IC and doesn't get ranked is if IC stomps them. I could possibly see someone saying "Well, RPI and Union played them close, and Cortland got waxed so..." You know, the old HSU/UMHB logic.

But the truth is, in a 7 team region, three teams in one conference being ranked is a really difficult prospect unless they're all 9-1 in an "A beat B, B beat C, C beat A" scenario.

[Ice Bear]

If you look back at the Regional Rankings for previous years you will see that the first ranking often holds only some semblance to the final ranking. The NCAA regional ranking committees have lenience in making the rankings anything they want. More than once a team that has not appeared in the first or even second ranking shows up in the final if the committee wants to move a certain team up. What they'll do is suddenly put an 8-2 opponent on the ranking to give a team another RR win. That's how an 8-2 Union or 8-2 RPI for example could show up in the final ranking if they wanted 9-1 RPI or 9-1 Union to have another Regional win. The fact that Union (rather than Brockport) is ranked now is a good sign that a 9-1 LL runner-up is going to stay high on their radar.   

Yeah, but who do you see dropping out for this 8-2 LL team?

I just don't see an 8-2 RPI being regionally ranked.  An 8-2 Union, maybe, but very unlikely.

Six teams are a lock - Ithaca, Grove City, JHU, Susq, the Brockport/Cortland winner, and a 9-1 Union/RPI winner. 

Thereafter you're going probably to have a 9-1 Muhlenberg, the Brockport/Cortland loser (B would be 8-2, Cortland 8-2 or 7-3), the 8-2 Union/RPI loser, a Carnegie Mellon/CWRU winner (either a 9-1 CMU or 8-2 CWRU), and an 8-2 W&J.

I think a 9-1 Muhlenberg probably takes the seventh spot in any of these permutations, except for an 8-2 Cortland that loses to Brockport but bears Ithaca, who then probably gets the nod.  If that doesn't happen, maybe the RRC would elevate a 8-2 Union with a RR win over Springfield or 9-1 Muhlenberg team with no RR wins, but no way it elevates an 8-2 RPI over them.

I think things change a little bit is R2 ends up with 8 or 9 teams regionally ranked.  (No clue if there is any chance of that.). If so, I think an 8-2 Union would squeeze in there (giving a 9-1 RPI a RR win, and thus a Pool C shot).  An 8-2 RPI probably is right on the fence (and would probably ice a 9-1 Union's Pool C bid, since that would give them 2 RR wins).

In any event, if you're an RPI or Union fan, from a Pool C perspective, you're rooting for:

- RPI to beat Hobart
- Cortland to beat Brockport
- Ithaca to beat Cortland
- Muhlenberg to stumble against F&M or Montclair
- Case Western to beat CMU
- More than 7 teams to be regionally ranked in the final RRs

An 8-2 Cortland team that loses to Brockport but beats Ithaca is your nightmare, because it probably blocks a 9-1 LL runner-up from even being considered.

Palooza and I don't agree on much, but this is basically dead on.

The only possibility where Cortland beats Brockport and loses to IC and doesn't get ranked is if IC stomps them. I could possibly see someone saying "Well, RPI and Union played them close, and Cortland got waxed so..." You know, the old HSU/UMHB logic.

But the truth is, in a 7 team region, three teams in one conference being ranked is a really difficult prospect unless they're all 9-1 in an "A beat B, B beat C, C beat A" scenario.

I love when the LLPP gets harmonious. This is one of those great moments. +k to the page!

[Oline89]

Working on a chaos scnario.  Hobart beats RPI, then RPI beats Union.  3  8-2 LL teams.  Then we are back to only one LL team.  Same as every year...