FB: Liberty League

[IC798891]

With the boards back, we can turn our attention to 2024, and a more wide open LL than I can remember.

Ithaca is probably the favorite by default — back to back conference championships will do that. But lots of questions remain.

1. Is Colin Schumm the QB1 of the future? He showed flashes — in fact, I would argue that his second half against Cortland was arguably the best performance by a LL QB all season: 11-of-15, 160 yards and a TD all while his team was down multiple scores and forced to pass against the eventual national champions. But he threw for just 92 yards in two playoff games.

2. Does Jalen Leonard-Osborne, last season's top offensive performer, return for another year? This will be a question a lot of teams have, as we deal with the final season of extra COVID time. Jake Williams should be returning after missing most of 2023 with an injury.

3. How do the Bombers replace two elite defenders in Stola and Slywka? The latter especially was one of Ithaca's all-time great players.

The rest of the LL shakes out as follows to me:

Union has the most dominant ground game in the conference, but struggled in the pass game against the other top teams in the LL, failing to produce a passing touchdown against IC or RPI. If Flanagan is the guy, he's going to need to make some plays.

RPI has the top returning QB, by what I believe is a sizable margin, and should have the strangest passing game. They probably should have beaten Ithaca last year, but inexplicably bad execution in the 4th quarter and OT doomed them, before Kazanowsky's injury finished them off

I think these are the Top 3 programs in the conference, and I could see any order of finish between all of them.

Hobart is accustomed to being in the running with this trio, but I saw a clear step back from them last year. Colombi threw for 8 touchdowns against Keystone, Hilbert, and Buff State and three against everyone else. With Denham and Boswell graduating after completing their 17th seasons of eligibility, I think a lot is going to fall on him. But honestly, I like the kid a lot. Super tough player. Reminds me of A.J. Wingfield in a lot of ways. But can he carry their offense to the needed heights?

I think Rochester is the sort of plucky team you kinda have to survive. Ryan Rose got a lot better in 2023. If they wound up as the 4th best team in the conference, I would not be surprised. Nor would I be surprised if they caught one of the big 3 on a bad day.

St. Lawrence and Buff State...the talent just isn't there.

[Jersey42]

I see RPI opens up at home with a Thursday evening game against the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.  Last year UW-La Crosse finished fourth in the d3football.com top 25.  RPI has not yet announced their schedule, but the UW-La Crosse schedule came out yesterday.

https://uwlathletics.com/sports/football/schedule

I have no idea how this game came about, but I'm glad to see another midwest/west team coming to play in the east.  

[UfanBill]

I see RPI opens up at home with a Thursday evening game against the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.  Last year UW-La Crosse finished fourth in the d3football.com top 25.  RPI has not yet announced their schedule, but the UW-La Crosse schedule came out yesterday.

https://uwlathletics.com/sports/football/schedule

I have no idea how this game came about, but I'm glad to see another midwest/west team coming to play in the east. 

Thanks for posting this 42. I have no idea what would prompt you to check UW-Lacrosse's 2024 schedule but yet you did. The thing that sticks out other than the surprise of this match-up is that it's being played on a Thursday night in Troy. I usually only step foot on the RPI campus very sparingly( like every other year) but I'll probably be there to see this one. Kudos to the Engineers for stepping up and +k to you Jersey 42 for...wait the karma link is gone!!! Pat??? ...Upon further perusal the karma link has morphed into the ubiquitous "like"and relocated to the upper right of the post. 

[UfanBill]

Landers Green in the Portal (I think it has been mentioned on the boards here somewhere)

I also just saw Jared Martino (Framingham State LB who was top 5 in the nation in tackles) transfers to Central Conn State. 

Just makes me think Union is a better place than Central Conn State or Iona, Wagner or Sacred Heart.  I have a feeling Green ends up somewhere like that.

Speaking of Landers Green. He shows up on the spring roster of FCS Eastern Illinois. The Panthers finished 8-3 last season in the Big South-OVC and ambitiously start their 2024 campaign at Illinois(wk#1) and Northwestern(wk#3) of the Big 10! Apparently gotta make some money to pay those LIV deals...Good luck to Landers. The Garnet take another blow.   

[unionpalooza]

With the boards back, we can turn our attention to 2024, and a more wide open LL than I can remember.

Ithaca is probably the favorite by default — back to back conference championships will do that. But lots of questions remain.

1. Is Colin Schumm the QB1 of the future? He showed flashes — in fact, I would argue that his second half against Cortland was arguably the best performance by a LL QB all season: 11-of-15, 160 yards and a TD all while his team was down multiple scores and forced to pass against the eventual national champions. But he threw for just 92 yards in two playoff games.

2. Does Jalen Leonard-Osborne, last season's top offensive performer, return for another year? This will be a question a lot of teams have, as we deal with the final season of extra COVID time. Jake Williams should be returning after missing most of 2023 with an injury.

3. How do the Bombers replace two elite defenders in Stola and Slywka? The latter especially was one of Ithaca's all-time great players.

The rest of the LL shakes out as follows to me:

Union has the most dominant ground game in the conference, but struggled in the pass game against the other top teams in the LL, failing to produce a passing touchdown against IC or RPI. If Flanagan is the guy, he's going to need to make some plays.

RPI has the top returning QB, by what I believe is a sizable margin, and should have the strangest passing game. They probably should have beaten Ithaca last year, but inexplicably bad execution in the 4th quarter and OT doomed them, before Kazanowsky's injury finished them off

I think these are the Top 3 programs in the conference, and I could see any order of finish between all of them.

Hobart is accustomed to being in the running with this trio, but I saw a clear step back from them last year. Colombi threw for 8 touchdowns against Keystone, Hilbert, and Buff State and three against everyone else. With Denham and Boswell graduating after completing their 17th seasons of eligibility, I think a lot is going to fall on him. But honestly, I like the kid a lot. Super tough player. Reminds me of A.J. Wingfield in a lot of ways. But can he carry their offense to the needed heights?

I think Rochester is the sort of plucky team you kinda have to survive. Ryan Rose got a lot better in 2023. If they wound up as the 4th best team in the conference, I would not be surprised. Nor would I be surprised if they caught one of the big 3 on a bad day.

St. Lawrence and Buff State...the talent just isn't there.

Weird, I posted a response to this yesterday, on which Bartman commented, but those posts seemed to have disappeared.  I am too lazy to write it again, but was just chiming in with some Union thoughts - big question of who will step up at QB (and whether they can be more successful passing than last year, where they struggled against good times); otherwise, almost all the offense returns (4/5 OL, TEs, most WRs, and at least and maybe both of their RB tandem); have to replace all of most of the front seven on defense, but entire secondary returns.  Basically, with the more experience at HC and better playcalling coming in, I could see Union take another step forward, have a similar year, or take a step back, all depending on whether the defensive front can reload and whether a new QB brings needed versatility to the offense.

[Bartman]

My two cents on Coach Drach is, you have a good one that'll totally change your offense if he feels he has the right QB and Offensive talent. Union was pretty boring and predictable last year on Offense, but you got it done. On the season forecast, remember that Union and Ithaca play at the Boz this year , which is advantage Hobart, IMO. We'll see, it's a great competitive league and Hobart has not won the LL since Ithaca joined, but they have to win their home games to have a chance. A short six months to go  

[IC798891]

Thoughts:

As I'm sure most of us know, the NCAA changed its rules in 2002, where postseason numbers began to count towards season and career totals. This, of course, puts a modern slant on pretty much every counting record — even more so in many cases than the rules changes.

If you had the ability to make it happen, would you prefer that the record book retroactively include postseason numbers prior to 2002?

To me, I think it really overshadows players of a certain era

[tony/troy]

Hope this attachment worked. Unlike many other people these days, sure looks like Moravian is in a New York State of mind.

[Bartman]

Hope this attachment worked. Unlike many other people these days, sure looks like Moravian is in a New York State of mind.

Hobart v Moravian week #3 at the Boz and RPI v UWLacrosse week#1 at Troy. Nice.

[IC798891]

Ithaca welcomes John's Hopkins and Endicott to South Hill in Weeks 1 and 2.

We'll find out very quickly what the Bombers are made of. With Cortland in Week 10, it will very quickly become either Pool A or bust or "Ithaca is primed for a run"

[Oline89]

Hobart schedule released today.  Some nice OOC games, away at Randolph Macon, then home against Moravian.  Going to be nice to see teams from conferences other than the E8.

[unionpalooza]

Hobart schedule released today.  Some nice OOC games, away at Randolph Macon, then home against Moravian.  Going to be nice to see teams from conferences other than the E8.

Kudos to RPI and Hobart for adding an out-of-region Top 10 teams to their schedules for 2024; I sense that upstate NY football is feeling its oats and ready to make new steps forward.  (Thanks, Cortland!)

I'd love to see Union do something similar (JCU, anyone?), but not in the cards for this year.  But the nonconference schedule will definitely improve, with Hilbert and Worcester St. being replaced with a 9 win and 5 win squad, respectively.  (Won't name names just yet, since schedule is not out.) That should put Union's 2024 SOS well over .600, which doesn't hurt come playoff time.

Coach Drach continues to rack up recruiting wins; I'm frankly astonished at how well he's done notwithstanding the HC changeover and the late start.  You never know til the kids get on the field, but the numbers and quality this cycle are as good as they've ever been.

Speaking of playoff time, any word on whether we'll get a 40-team field this year?  My sense from the TWitter dialogue was that this was now quite likely, but not yet formally decided; and that a change to a RPI/PairWise-eqsue formula for playoff selection and seeding was becoming likely, but a year or two off.

If you look at some of the great work that Logan Hansen has done, it's pretty clear that a shift to that type of formula would GREATLY benefit R1 and R2 teams, who would see more Pool C selections and better seeding. He put up retroactive brackets for the past few years under the possible new approach on Twitter; for example, last year, under the new criteria with a 40-team bracket, Union and Ithaca both would have been 3 seeds, and Hobart would have made the field as a 7 seed. In 2019, Union would have been a 2, and both Hobart and Ithaca would have made the tournament as a 7; in 2021, all FOUR of RPI, Ithaca, Union and Hobart would have made the tournament, at 4, 5, 6 and 7 seed respectively.

My main concern is that these mock brackets prove too much; in 2023, all FOUR #1 seeds would have been R2 teams. That's not actually completely crazy, as three of them would be Cortland, Susq, and Grove City; Cortland won the natty, and the other two were obviously right there with them.

[Bartman]

Unionpalooza,
        Nice post, very informative and Logan Hansen continues to provides great analysis. I liked your post....but I really miss the old system of gathering +k pelts...I really don't know what Ice Bear will do when he comes out from hibernation

[IC798891]

Ultimately, I just don't know how I feel about a six-week postseason — acknowledging that no one will likely play an actual 6th game in the playoffs. I know it gets at the access ratio problems, but it also makes the football playoffs, which is already D3s longest NCAA playoff relative to the length of the regular season, even longer. So while it some ways it brings it more in line with the rest of the division, in other ways to moves it further apart.

I'm also not really sure it's in line with the D3 philosophy.

Yes, more playoff bids for more student athletes is a positive. But D3s philosophy statement emphasizes conference championships and providing opportunity broad based athletics participation, and this merely adds at large bids while extending a season in a way that could impact on multi-sport participation among football players, even if it's not a question of "the longer football season literally cuts into my track schedule" but just the general physical wear and tear, and overall commitment to a bigger football footprint.

It seems pretty obvious it's going to happen, so I'm just kind of shouting at the rain. But that's what the offseason is for anyway

[XREDDRAGON77]

Just seems bizarre when your post season is beyond 50% of the duration of your regular season. League realignments,and balancing the number of teams per league may not solve much. It's almost as if the number of teams has surpassed D3's carrying capacity based on the current ratio for post season access!