FB: Liberty League

[PBR...]

Congrats Dlippiel!  I've been debating with my wife, but if we have a girl (in the future) I had a thought that maybe we should let her eat all the candy and junk and she'll grow up chubby so boys aren't interested, then she'll hit college and wise up hit the treadmill and shed shed that junk at which point it's out of my control anyway (kind of like the kids in Scrooged).  Worth a shot, eh?

Halladay is better than all but one pitcher on either the Yanks or Red Sox (might be better than Beckett, but that's a tough debate) and probably has 3 - 4 good years in him, so why not throw some prospects who could end up as the next Brian Taylor, Tood Van Poppel, Paul Wilson, etc. for him?  It's not like he's a Pavano who threw up one good year, he's done it pretty consistently for a couple.  Same with Johan, the Yanks should've made that deal when they had the chance. 

Big DV's,

You think Matazinsky can be a player if he continues to improve (hard work and all that)?  Is he more suited at DE or TE, or something else, like ILB at this level?

because what toronto's g.m. is asking is outrageous...he wants to fleece a teams entire minor league system of every top player(can attest to this by what the phillies offered and were turned down at the last minute)...bottomline is he or toronto's owners dont want to move halliday unless its for a deal that is so 1 sided in toronto's favor you have to do it.

word is erin andrews co worker filmed her...bigger question is whether she knew she was being filmed as some are stating....now if only people could clean off all the viruses the hackers embedded in the video and people downloaded onto their pc's, hilarious!

[pumkinattack]

I guess it depends on what your ML roster looks like.  I'm an A's fan, so I've seen my share of prospects come and go over the years (even the guys like Ben Grieve, Nick Swisher, Crosby never improved to the point of being all stars).  I'd take a guy who can put up 3-5 prime years, over three top prospects unless my team is so loaded with veterans that you need the depth of youth.  Seems like the Phils have enough under 28 - 29 yr olds that you make that play.

I never saw the EA video, or a lot of others, because I'm terrified of what I can pickup in terms of trackers or viruses.

[Jonny Utah]

Congrats Dlippiel!  I've been debating with my wife, but if we have a girl (in the future) I had a thought that maybe we should let her eat all the candy and junk and she'll grow up chubby so boys aren't interested, then she'll hit college and wise up hit the treadmill and shed shed that junk at which point it's out of my control anyway (kind of like the kids in Scrooged).  Worth a shot, eh?

Halladay is better than all but one pitcher on either the Yanks or Red Sox (might be better than Beckett, but that's a tough debate) and probably has 3 - 4 good years in him, so why not throw some prospects who could end up as the next Brian Taylor, Tood Van Poppel, Paul Wilson, etc. for him?  It's not like he's a Pavano who threw up one good year, he's done it pretty consistently for a couple.  Same with Johan, the Yanks should've made that deal when they had the chance. 

Big DV's,

You think Matazinsky can be a player if he continues to improve (hard work and all that)?  Is he more suited at DE or TE, or something else, like ILB at this level?

because what toronto's g.m. is asking is outrageous...he wants to fleece a teams entire minor league system of every top player(can attest to this by what the phillies offered and were turned down at the last minute)...bottomline is he or toronto's owners dont want to move halliday unless its for a deal that is so 1 sided in toronto's favor you have to do it.

word is erin andrews co worker filmed her...bigger question is whether she knew she was being filmed as some are stating....now if only people could clean off all the viruses the hackers embedded in the video and people downloaded onto their pc's, hilarious!

I can kind of see Torontos side though too.  I mean, they don't need to get rid of Haliday.  Haliday can still be a great pitcher for the Blue Jays in 2-3 years, and who knows what kind of team the Blue Jays will have then?  It seems like for the past 10 years, there is always talk about how dangerous the Blue Jays are going to be at the start of the season.  And then they fade out.

[bigdvs]

Big DV's,

You think Matazinsky can be a player if he continues to improve (hard work and all that)?  Is he more suited at DE or TE, or something else, like ILB at this level?

bigdvs thinks sizewise most definitely TE (DE no, didn't see the speed), should be a player if drinking, girls and all that off field stuff doesn't get in the way. Probably not making a major impact as a freshman unless 'bart has no depth at the position.

[Jonny Utah]

Ok heres a financial question for LLPP from an unexperienced stockman.

If someone buys 100K (7,220 shares at 13.85) of Bank of America stock right now.  How is it possible to lose that money?  Or I guess the question I should ask is, What are the chances that Bank of America stock does not rise above $14?

Or what if you did the same with Ford Motors? Buying 100K (13,513 shares at $7.40)

[pumkinattack]

Look at option pricing and put to call ratio and you can figure out what the market is setting the odds at ($14 call vs. say a $13 put).  You would have been better off asking that question in March (esp Ford - although I still have a long term problem all of the big three since even though Ford didn't take gov't cash, they are affected by the gov't subsidized competition as well as the impact of GM/Chrysler on common suppliers - it's like semiconduntors in Korea, private co's can't make money).  I can tell you anecdotally that B of A has major problems in its CRE portfolio.  They are trying to get 100 cents on the dollar on land loans (for retail, office construction) in Florida and think that personal guarantees are worth the paper they are printed on.  In general, all the banks have issues with their CRE books that aren't coming to light yet (M&T, PNC and SunTrust are probably the only ones I'd trust at all) and I still think those issues are why we aren't out of the woods yet.  There's 2MM sq. ft. of spec built office space in Buckhead on one block that's at or close to completion and there's been one lease signed for 50,000 sq. ft.  Those were all projected to throw off cash flows based on $24/ft. gross rents, but they are begging class B tenants to pay $18 with heavy TI's.  This trickles down to the highly leveraged middle market borrowers too.

If you want financial exposure take a look at the insurers.  Even the ones with significant healthcare businesses. 

Big DV's thanks for the input.  We did have problems at TE last year with a number of injuries that led to a FR playing the last couple of key games plus playoffs.  The upside is that Bobal and Marsh should be well prepared this year.  It worries me when you tell me that a 230 lb kid at 6'3" or so is too slow to play DE, though.   

[PBR...]

I guess it depends on what your ML roster looks like.  I'm an A's fan, so I've seen my share of prospects come and go over the years (even the guys like Ben Grieve, Nick Swisher, Crosby never improved to the point of being all stars).  I'd take a guy who can put up 3-5 prime years, over three top prospects unless my team is so loaded with veterans that you need the depth of youth.  Seems like the Phils have enough under 28 - 29 yr olds that you make that play.

I never saw the EA video, or a lot of others, because I'm terrified of what I can pickup in terms of trackers or viruses.

see your point problem is your most likely not going to have him 3-5 years...he is signed thru this year and next then is eligible for free agency and has said he is going to test the free agent market no matter what team he is with at that point. so in reality your getting a player for just over a year and considering they wanted the phillies top 5 prospects no way to do the deal.

[Regulator]

Ok heres a financial question for LLPP from an unexperienced stockman.

If someone buys 100K (7,220 shares at 13.85) of Bank of America stock right now.  How is it possible to lose that money?  Or I guess the question I should ask is, What are the chances that Bank of America stock does not rise above $14?

Or what if you did the same with Ford Motors? Buying 100K (13,513 shares at $7.40)

JU-  If someone had 100k in liquid cash, it would have been better to put it into to BoA at $2 bucks.

[pumkinattack]

Don't the phils have the cash to buck up and pay the man?  I was assuming that to be the case, not a one year rental.

[Jonny Utah]

Ok heres a financial question for LLPP from an unexperienced stockman.

If someone buys 100K (7,220 shares at 13.85) of Bank of America stock right now.  How is it possible to lose that money?  Or I guess the question I should ask is, What are the chances that Bank of America stock does not rise above $14?

Or what if you did the same with Ford Motors? Buying 100K (13,513 shares at $7.40)

JU-  If someone had 100k in liquid cash, it would have been better to put it into to BoA at $2 bucks.

Oh yea, I understand that, but where do you see BoA in 5 years?  I just don't see them being below $20 a share for the next 5 years right?

And what about Ford?  

And sorry pumpkin, you are a few light years ahead of me in looking at this stuff yet...

[PBR...]

Don't the phils have the cash to buck up and pay the man?  I was assuming that to be the case, not a one year rental.

they do but no one has any idea what his worth would be if the yanks/redsox/dodgers/phils start a bidding war for him as a free agent all bets would be off and he wants to see what he is worth on the open market. so any chance of a trade and sign are off the table. plus the phils are looking long term in having to sign howard in a couple of years and several other of their top players.

[pumkinattack]

A lot of people thought in 2002 that prices would be significantly higher in five years, but really there's been ten dead years.  That's not saying don't buy stocks, but just take a closer look at the business model, cash flow it's expected to generate and risks to that cash flow.  

You own some apartment properties I believe.  A cap rate is the inverse of a PE multiple effectively, so you look at the cash flow you think B of A can generate in five years and apply a multiple based on your evaluation of the risk to the business.  (in MF, is it in a good neighborhood, are there a lot of vacant apartments priced competitively to mine, is there new construction, is it section 8 and do I have to worry about the tenants stumping up their 30%, and so on - that tells you the cap rate you want to pay for a property, same concept).  

With Ford, they mortgaged everything that wasn't nailed down a couple of years ago knowing that they needed liquidity now to restructure their business (for real, not just bs, they were bouncing their premier automotive units and planning on focusing on lower volume with higher profit margins, antithetical to the rest of the industry which behaves like supermarkets sacrificing profitability for volume).  They're management is really smart and I would put my money with them over the other two in a hearbeat (qualitative factors).  However, two of your biggest competitors are gov't owned.  How do you compete with them on pricing?  What if they kill or affect your suppliers (most parts suppliers are shared by the big three, so they have major customer concentration risk).  I know a reinsurance exec for the utility property casualty business (a mathmetician by training) who said there's no way AIG can profit on the pricing they've been offering lately to win business (to pay back the gov't).  

[PBR...]

baseball just needs to publish the list and get this over with....otherwise this is never going to go away so people can move on....


-- Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were
among about 100 Major League Baseball Players who tested
positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, the New York
Times reported, citing unnamed lawyers with knowledge of the
results.

[PBR...]

A lot of people thought in 2002 that prices would be significantly higher in five years, but really there's been ten dead years.  That's not saying don't buy stocks, but just take a closer look at the business model, cash flow it's expected to generate and risks to that cash flow.  

You own some apartment properties I believe.  A cap rate is the inverse of a PE multiple effectively, so you look at the cash flow you think B of A can generate in five years and apply a multiple based on your evaluation of the risk to the business.  (in MF, is it in a good neighborhood, are there a lot of vacant apartments priced competitively to mine, is there new construction, is it section 8 and do I have to worry about the tenants stumping up their 30%, and so on - that tells you the cap rate you want to pay for a property, same concept).  

With Ford, they mortgaged everything that wasn't nailed down a couple of years ago knowing that they needed liquidity now to restructure their business (for real, not just bs, they were bouncing their premier automotive units and planning on focusing on lower volume with higher profit margins, antithetical to the rest of the industry which behaves like supermarkets sacrificing profitability for volume).  They're management is really smart and I would put my money with them over the other two in a hearbeat (qualitative factors).  However, two of your biggest competitors are gov't owned.  How do you compete with them on pricing?  What if they kill or affect your suppliers (most parts suppliers are shared by the big three, so they have major customer concentration risk).  I know a reinsurance exec for the utility property casualty business (a mathmetician by training) who said there's no way AIG can profit on the pricing they've been offering lately to win business (to pay back the gov't).  

agreed....banks/autos are not good places to put your money right now....

[dlippiel]

baseball just needs to publish the list and get this over with....otherwise this is never going to go away so people can move on....


-- Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were
among about 100 Major League Baseball Players who tested
positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, the New York
Times reported, citing unnamed lawyers with knowledge of the
results.

dlippiel concurrs one hundred percent pbr. He is so tired of these ****ing cheating primadonas being protected. dlippiel is fully aware the test was supposed to be annoymus but he feels that once you cheat, and/or break the law, annoymus goes out the ****ing window. Earlier this season dlippiel was acting all self-rightous making empty threats about boycotting MLB because he feels Bug Selig is disgraceful, the players Union is even worse than his teacher's Union (which is hard) and many of the players are spoiled brats who let both America's youth and the game of baseball down. Yet once dlippiel realized he loves watching the Yanks, loves the game of Baseball (almost as much as football but not quite), and shouldn't throw stones so much he shut up a bit. If these guys made 30,000$ a year dlippiel would be much more understanding of the players positions on performance-enhancing drugs. dlippiel just feels that when one rakes in the amount of money for playing a ****ing game that these guys do and are in hte national spotlight for all to see they should be a bit more responsible.