FB: Liberty League

[dlippiel]

*** Cliff Lee for President ***

dlip an avid Yanks fan gives Cliff Lee all the credit in the world. The Yanks were outpitched, out hit, and outplayed last night. Congrats to the Phils on a huge game one win!

**** MHIT!

btw pbr is already way sick of the jay-z/alicia keys song....yankee stadium blasts it between innings/when jeter bats/fox plays it when going into/coming back from commercial!!! enuf!!! pbr wants to stick a hot needle in his eye when he hears it...now jay-z and alicia keys are going to perform it live tonight before the game....oh joy now we can hear it another 3 million times

+k pbr for speaking such valiant truths here on the LLPP. Honestly can't get more annoying than ****ing Jigga Man and Beyonce. Some old school Jigga **** is solid but anything recent that I have heard sucks and dlip won't even comment on ****ing Beyonce. **** dlip would rather have Hall and his boyfriend Oates play a few, or even ****ing Barry Manilow perform. Why is anyone performing anyway it's a ****ing ballgame!

**** MHIT!

Barry Manilow s*cks worse than any artist ever mentioned on post patterns.  On second thought... Manilow, Michael Bolton, and Kenny G are all gonna burn in hell.

dlip thinks ya rock JT even though you probably think my politics are equivalent to pre/post Boltus Hartwick.

"Looks like we made it!!!

[JT]

*** Cliff Lee for President ***

dlip an avid Yanks fan gives Cliff Lee all the credit in the world. The Yanks were outpitched, out hit, and outplayed last night. Congrats to the Phils on a huge game one win!

**** MHIT!

btw pbr is already way sick of the jay-z/alicia keys song....yankee stadium blasts it between innings/when jeter bats/fox plays it when going into/coming back from commercial!!! enuf!!! pbr wants to stick a hot needle in his eye when he hears it...now jay-z and alicia keys are going to perform it live tonight before the game....oh joy now we can hear it another 3 million times

+k pbr for speaking such valiant truths here on the LLPP. Honestly can't get more annoying than ****ing Jigga Man and Beyonce. Some old school Jigga **** is solid but anything recent that I have heard sucks and dlip won't even comment on ****ing Beyonce. **** dlip would rather have Hall and his boyfriend Oates play a few, or even ****ing Barry Manilow perform. Why is anyone performing anyway it's a ****ing ballgame!

**** MHIT!

Barry Manilow s*cks worse than any artist ever mentioned on post patterns.  On second thought... Manilow, Michael Bolton, and Kenny G are all gonna burn in hell.

dlip thinks ya rock JT even though you probably think my politics are equivalent to pre/post Boltus Hartwick.

"Looks like we made it!!!

You'll be fine as long as you seek the truth young Jedi.

[Frank Rossi]

Some of you may have noticed that I have not released a Liberty League playoff possibilities summary yet this season.  This occurred for a few reasons:  (1) personal life issues dominated a bit more than I'd like -- that's been dealt with as of this week, thankfully; (2) "In the HuddLLe" and covering all ten Union games has posed unusual time issues for me this year; and (3) there have been too many scenarios based on the initial logjam we saw in the first three weeks of league play.

As things have shaken out, we have some better ideas as to what scenarios are left.  Here is a review of all eight teams' chances.

First, a note about Pool C potential.  Even though Union's loss against Salisbury on Saturday was considered an out-of-region loss for polling and selection purposes, the current position of Union (as #9 in the East Region) means that Union, unless it wins the Pool A bid of the Liberty League, would not win a Pool C bid.  As such, no other team in the Liberty League would stand any meaningful chance for a Pool C bid.  Therefore, no further discussion will be provided for Pool C bids in this analysis.

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(1) WPI (3-4, 0-4 LL) -- 10/31 vs. HOB, 11/7 @ SUS, 11/14 vs. SLU

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  No.

Four losses with three games to go makes for simple math -- WPI cannot win the league this season.

------

(2) St. Lawrence (2-5, 1-3 LL) -- 10/31 vs. SUS, 11/7 vs. ROC, 11/14 @ WPI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but not likely.

To even have a chance inside a tiebreaker, St. Lawrence would need to:  (1) win all of its three remaining games; (2) have Union lose all three remaining; (3) have Susquehanna lose every game except for the Union game; (4) have Rochester not lose except to St. Lawrence itself; (5) have the winner of RPI/Hobart lose another game; (6) have the loser of RPI/Hobart lose another game; and (7) hope for the best in a multi-way tiebreaker at three losses.

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(3) Merchant Marine (4-4, 2-3 LL) -- 10/31 BYE, 11/7 vs. UNI, 11/14 @ RPI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but not likely.

To have a chance in a tiebreaker, Merchant Marine needs the following scenarios:  (1) win its remaining two games; have Union lose all three remaining games; (3) have Susquehanna lose every game except the Union game; (4) hope that Hobart, RPI and Rochester (since they have a triangulation remaining in which they still play each other) all end up with at least one loss in that triangulation; and (5) hope for the best in a multi-way tiebreaker at three losses.

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(4) Hobart (3-3, 2-2 LL) -- 10/31 @ WPI, 11/7 vs. RPI, 11/14 vs. ROC

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but not the likeliest two-loss team presently.

Because Hobart faces neither of the leaders in the league, Hobart can only do so much to help its cause.  Here's the good news: if Hobart runs the table, it will eliminate the other current two-loss teams.  The bad news, though:  Union and Susquehanna have both beaten Hobart.  Thus, Hobart cannot win a two-loss tiebreaker (even in a three-way tiebreaker).  Therefore, the following needs to happen:  (1) Hobart wins out; (2) Union loses all remaining games; and (3) Susquehanna loses every game except for the Union game.  Any Hobart loss, Union win or Susquehanna win this weekend likely eliminates Hobart.

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(5) RPI (4-2, 2-2 LL) -- 10/31 @ UNI, 11/7 @ HOB, 11/14 vs. MMA

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, and probably the likeliest of the two-loss teams.

RPI's advantage at two losses is this: the team must still play Union.  The bad news is that the Susquehanna loss adversely affects RPI in any tiebreaker against Susquehanna, be it a two- or three-way tiebreaker.  In addition, Rochester at two losses currently does not help RPI's chances right now.

Here's what we know:  (1) RPI cannot win a two-way tiebreaker against Susquehanna at two losses; (2) RPI cannot win a three-way tiebreaker that involves both Susquehanna and Rochester or Susquehanna and Union IF Union loses to Susquehanna; (3) a four-way tie is possible with Rochester, Union and Susquehanna -- but RPI would be only 1-2 in such a situation at two losses and would lose such a tiebreaker.

For RPI to have a real chance to win the league, the following are required:  (1) RPI wins out; (2) Rochester loses one more game (not required in a three-way tie with Union and Rochester, but it would help avoid potential tiebreaker problems); (3) Susquehanna loses two of three games and Union loses two or three games -- OR Susquehanna loses one of three games and Union loses two but not three games and Union beats Susquehanna in that equation; and (4) RPI hopes for the best in any lower level tiebreakers since it is unsure at this time to which teams Union and Susquehanna will lose presently under this scenario.

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(6) Rochester (3-4, 3-2 LL) -- 10/31 @ ALF*, 11/7 vs. SLU, 11/14 vs. HOB

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but does not have the best chance of two-loss teams.

While Rochester has only two league games left, neither are against teams above them.  The presence of RPI at two losses is more a benefit than a detriment currently to Rochester since Rochester beat RPI already.  However, Rochester has already lost to both Union and Susquehanna.  Therefore, a three-way or two-way tie against those teams would not be a win for Rochester.  The only three-way tie that Rochester would have a chance to win is Union-Rochester-RPI if RPI beats Union (and this requires a lower-level tiebreaker since all would be 1-1 against each other).

For Rochester to have a chance to win the league, the following would be necessary:  (1) Rochester wins out; (2) RPI loses once, Union loses three times and Susquehanna loses twice -- OR Union loses to RPI and one other team, Susquehanna loses twice and RPI wins out; and (3) tiebreaker scenarios play out appropriately for Rochester.

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(7) Susquehanna (5-2, 3-1 LL) -- 10/31 @ SLU, 11/7 vs. WPI, 11/14 @ UNI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  Yes.

Can win the League?  Yes.

Put simply, if Susquehanna runs the table, they win the Liberty League in their final year.  The worst Susquehanna could do is tie Union with one loss -- but Susquehanna would win the head-to-head.

That said, Susquehanna would still have a great shot at winning the Liberty League at two losses since it already has beaten Rochester, RPI and Hobart -- teams presently at two losses.  However, a win over Union is almost a requirement in such a situation, since Union would win three-way ties at two losses if Union beat Susquehanna and either Rochester or Hobart were to be at two losses still.

Therefore, while not an absolute requirement, it is a 90% requirement that Susquehanna beat Union on the final week.  Susquehanna could afford one loss in the next two weeks, beat Union and still win the Liberty League.  Again, Susquehanna would own ALL TWO-LOSS TIEBREAKERS if it beats Union and if Susquehanna and Union both lose a game in the meantime.
 
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(8) Union (5-2, 4-0 LL) -- 10/31 vs. RPI, 11/7 @ MMA, 11/14 vs. SUS

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  Yes.

Can win the League?  Yes.

It's an interesting scenario this year since the top two teams still will face off against each other -- and it will be on the final week of the season.  If Union wins out, the Dutchmen would be undefeated in the Liberty League -- and would obviously win the Pool A bid.  However, if the Dutchmen win twice and lose to Susquehanna (and Susquehanna wins out), they lose the bid and go to the ECACs.  Things get worse if Union loses to Susquehanna and another team since Susquehanna would own all the two-loss tiebreakers in those cases.

What happens if Union beats Susquehanna and loses both its remaining games?  Assuming Susquehanna loses one game, Union could face a three-way 1-1 tiebreaker with RPI and Susquehanna.  Union would win a four-way tiebreaker with RPI, Susquehanna and Rochester in that case.  Union would win head-to-head against Susquehanna only.  If Susquehanna finished with three losses, Union could still lose if RPI runs the table.

So, the problems for Union really only begin to mount if Union loses to Susquehanna if Susquehanna runs the table.  Should Susquehanna trip, Union can lose one game safely, including the Susquehanna game.  If Union loses twice, then the tiebreakers become problematic for the Dutchmen.  Again, until Susquehanna loses, if the Crusaders lose at all, Union cannot lose the Susquehanna/Union game on November 14th.

[mattvsmith]

The Rev has just found what could be described as a "dream job" for a Statesmen fan.

http://www.hws.edu/offices/hr/employment/adm_2009_Equip_Coord.aspx

[SaintsFAN]

The Rev has just found what could be described as a "dream job" for a Statesmen fan.

http://www.hws.edu/offices/hr/employment/adm_2009_Equip_Coord.aspx

They want you to have an associates degree for THAT???  how hard is it to get a washing machine to work?

[PBR...]

pbr was just looking at schedules and its crunch time....3 games remain for most teams. its showtime.... win and your in....

[pumkinattack]

+k pbr for speaking such valiant truths here on the LLPP. Honestly can't get more annoying than ****ing Jigga Man and Beyonce. Some old school Jigga **** is solid but anything recent that I have heard sucks and dlip won't even comment on ****ing Beyonce. **** dlip would rather have Hall and his boyfriend Oates play a few, or even ****ing Barry Manilow perform. Why is anyone performing anyway it's a ****ing ballgame!

**** MHIT!

DLIP, are you a fan of maneater?

[labart96]

The Rev has just found what could be described as a "dream job" for a Statesmen fan.

http://www.hws.edu/offices/hr/employment/adm_2009_Equip_Coord.aspx

Bob Toner was the man

[PBR...]

+k pbr for speaking such valiant truths here on the LLPP. Honestly can't get more annoying than ****ing Jigga Man and Beyonce. Some old school Jigga **** is solid but anything recent that I have heard sucks and dlip won't even comment on ****ing Beyonce. **** dlip would rather have Hall and his boyfriend Oates play a few, or even ****ing Barry Manilow perform. Why is anyone performing anyway it's a ****ing ballgame!

**** MHIT!

DLIP, are you a fan of maneater?

btw these cats grew up near pbr....actually pbr knows the oates family and he is very cool and nice guy (and is married w/ kid). hall is a strange dood (nice but strange) and leave it at that...both talented musicians though they are well school'd in classical/blues/etc....

[labart96]

Some of you may have noticed that I have not released a Liberty League playoff possibilities summary yet this season.  This occurred for a few reasons:  (1) personal life issues dominated a bit more than I'd like -- that's been dealt with as of this week, thankfully; (2) "In the HuddLLe" and covering all ten Union games has posed unusual time issues for me this year; and (3) there have been too many scenarios based on the initial logjam we saw in the first three weeks of league play.

As things have shaken out, we have some better ideas as to what scenarios are left.  Here is a review of all eight teams' chances.

First, a note about Pool C potential.  Even though Union's loss against Salisbury on Saturday was considered an out-of-region loss for polling and selection purposes, the current position of Union (as #9 in the East Region) means that Union, unless it wins the Pool A bid of the Liberty League, would not win a Pool C bid.  As such, no other team in the Liberty League would stand any meaningful chance for a Pool C bid.  Therefore, no further discussion will be provided for Pool C bids in this analysis.

------

(1) WPI (3-4, 0-4 LL) -- 10/31 vs. HOB, 11/7 @ SUS, 11/14 vs. SLU

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  No.

Four losses with three games to go makes for simple math -- WPI cannot win the league this season.

------

(2) St. Lawrence (2-5, 1-3 LL) -- 10/31 vs. SUS, 11/7 vs. ROC, 11/14 @ WPI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but not likely.

To even have a chance inside a tiebreaker, St. Lawrence would need to:  (1) win all of its three remaining games; (2) have Union lose all three remaining; (3) have Susquehanna lose every game except for the Union game; (4) have Rochester not lose except to St. Lawrence itself; (5) have the winner of RPI/Hobart lose another game; (6) have the loser of RPI/Hobart lose another game; and (7) hope for the best in a multi-way tiebreaker at three losses.

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(3) Merchant Marine (4-4, 2-3 LL) -- 10/31 BYE, 11/7 vs. UNI, 11/14 @ RPI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but not likely.

To have a chance in a tiebreaker, Merchant Marine needs the following scenarios:  (1) win its remaining two games; have Union lose all three remaining games; (3) have Susquehanna lose every game except the Union game; (4) hope that Hobart, RPI and Rochester (since they have a triangulation remaining in which they still play each other) all end up with at least one loss in that triangulation; and (5) hope for the best in a multi-way tiebreaker at three losses.

------

(4) Hobart (3-3, 2-2 LL) -- 10/31 @ WPI, 11/7 vs. RPI, 11/14 vs. ROC

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but not the likeliest two-loss team presently.

Because Hobart faces neither of the leaders in the league, Hobart can only do so much to help its cause.  Here's the good news: if Hobart runs the table, it will eliminate the other current two-loss teams.  The bad news, though:  Union and Susquehanna have both beaten Hobart.  Thus, Hobart cannot win a two-loss tiebreaker (even in a three-way tiebreaker).  Therefore, the following needs to happen:  (1) Hobart wins out; (2) Union loses all remaining games; and (3) Susquehanna loses every game except for the Union game.  Any Hobart loss, Union win or Susquehanna win this weekend likely eliminates Hobart.

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(5) RPI (4-2, 2-2 LL) -- 10/31 @ UNI, 11/7 @ HOB, 11/14 vs. MMA

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, and probably the likeliest of the two-loss teams.

RPI's advantage at two losses is this: the team must still play Union.  The bad news is that the Susquehanna loss adversely affects RPI in any tiebreaker against Susquehanna, be it a two- or three-way tiebreaker.  In addition, Rochester at two losses currently does not help RPI's chances right now.

Here's what we know:  (1) RPI cannot win a two-way tiebreaker against Susquehanna at two losses; (2) RPI cannot win a three-way tiebreaker that involves both Susquehanna and Rochester or Susquehanna and Union IF Union loses to Susquehanna; (3) a four-way tie is possible with Rochester, Union and Susquehanna -- but RPI would be only 1-2 in such a situation at two losses and would lose such a tiebreaker.

For RPI to have a real chance to win the league, the following are required:  (1) RPI wins out; (2) Rochester loses one more game (not required in a three-way tie with Union and Rochester, but it would help avoid potential tiebreaker problems); (3) Susquehanna loses two of three games and Union loses two or three games -- OR Susquehanna loses one of three games and Union loses two but not three games and Union beats Susquehanna in that equation; and (4) RPI hopes for the best in any lower level tiebreakers since it is unsure at this time to which teams Union and Susquehanna will lose presently under this scenario.

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(6) Rochester (3-4, 3-2 LL) -- 10/31 @ ALF*, 11/7 vs. SLU, 11/14 vs. HOB

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  No.

Can win the League?  Yes, but does not have the best chance of two-loss teams.

While Rochester has only two league games left, neither are against teams above them.  The presence of RPI at two losses is more a benefit than a detriment currently to Rochester since Rochester beat RPI already.  However, Rochester has already lost to both Union and Susquehanna.  Therefore, a three-way or two-way tie against those teams would not be a win for Rochester.  The only three-way tie that Rochester would have a chance to win is Union-Rochester-RPI if RPI beats Union (and this requires a lower-level tiebreaker since all would be 1-1 against each other).

For Rochester to have a chance to win the league, the following would be necessary:  (1) Rochester wins out; (2) RPI loses once, Union loses three times and Susquehanna loses twice -- OR Union loses to RPI and one other team, Susquehanna loses twice and RPI wins out; and (3) tiebreaker scenarios play out appropriately for Rochester.

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(7) Susquehanna (5-2, 3-1 LL) -- 10/31 @ SLU, 11/7 vs. WPI, 11/14 @ UNI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  Yes.

Can win the League?  Yes.

Put simply, if Susquehanna runs the table, they win the Liberty League in their final year.  The worst Susquehanna could do is tie Union with one loss -- but Susquehanna would win the head-to-head.

That said, Susquehanna would still have a great shot at winning the Liberty League at two losses since it already has beaten Rochester, RPI and Hobart -- teams presently at two losses.  However, a win over Union is almost a requirement in such a situation, since Union would win three-way ties at two losses if Union beat Susquehanna and either Rochester or Hobart were to be at two losses still.

Therefore, while not an absolute requirement, it is a 90% requirement that Susquehanna beat Union on the final week.  Susquehanna could afford one loss in the next two weeks, beat Union and still win the Liberty League.  Again, Susquehanna would own ALL TWO-LOSS TIEBREAKERS if it beats Union and if Susquehanna and Union both lose a game in the meantime.
 
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(8) Union (5-2, 4-0 LL) -- 10/31 vs. RPI, 11/7 @ MMA, 11/14 vs. SUS

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  Yes.

Can win the League?  Yes.

It's an interesting scenario this year since the top two teams still will face off against each other -- and it will be on the final week of the season.  If Union wins out, the Dutchmen would be undefeated in the Liberty League -- and would obviously win the Pool A bid.  However, if the Dutchmen win twice and lose to Susquehanna (and Susquehanna wins out), they lose the bid and go to the ECACs.  Things get worse if Union loses to Susquehanna and another team since Susquehanna would own all the two-loss tiebreakers in those cases.

What happens if Union beats Susquehanna and loses both its remaining games?  Assuming Susquehanna loses one game, Union could face a three-way 1-1 tiebreaker with RPI and Susquehanna.  Union would win a four-way tiebreaker with RPI, Susquehanna and Rochester in that case.  Union would win head-to-head against Susquehanna only.  If Susquehanna finished with three losses, Union could still lose if RPI runs the table.

So, the problems for Union really only begin to mount if Union loses to Susquehanna if Susquehanna runs the table.  Should Susquehanna trip, Union can lose one game safely, including the Susquehanna game.  If Union loses twice, then the tiebreakers become problematic for the Dutchmen.  Again, until Susquehanna loses, if the Crusaders lose at all, Union cannot lose the Susquehanna/Union game on November 14th.

Excellent work as always.  TGP thinks it comes down to Union and Susquehanna duking it out on the last week.

That said TGP will predict these final standings:

1.  Union 8-2, 7-0 (salisbury serves as a wake-up call and U runs the table)
2.  SUS 7-3, 5-2 (sus finishes strong but drops the LL finale at FBF)
3.  HOB 6-3, 5-2 (hob gets rpi at home where they are 8-1 in the last 2 seaons)
4.  Roc 4-6, 4-3 (Roch will split games with SLU and HOB)
5.  RPI 5-4, 3-4 (rpi will stumble this year, but will be back in 2010)
6.  MMA 4-6, 2-5 (after a great start unfortunately i don't see the mariners winning anymore in 09)
6.  SLU 2-8, 2-5 (slu has a tough ending schedule and by the last game, wpi, they'll be banged up)
8.  WPI 4-6, 1-6 (wpi will win one LL game but that's it)

[SaintsFAN]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/10/29/iowa.marker.disguise/index.html


File this under:  WTF --- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

[TheGrove]

(7) Susquehanna (5-2, 3-1 LL) -- 10/31 @ SLU, 11/7 vs. WPI, 11/14 @ UNI

In Control of Its Own Destiny?  Yes.

Can win the League?  Yes.

Put simply, if Susquehanna runs the table, they win the Liberty League in their final year.  The worst Susquehanna could do is tie Union with one loss -- but Susquehanna would win the head-to-head.

+k Frank, great analysis.

Gotta say, all the stuff in bold gives me goosebumps. It's been awhile since Crusader fans have heard talk like that, my friends. I know ya'll don't want us to win it and run, but man, I'm excited.

[Jonny Utah]

Hey what ever happened to that 'upstate d3 football' stats and coaches rankings that someone at Hobart used to run?  That webpage was great I thought. 

[Garnet]

http://campus.hws.edu/upstate/

You mean this one?  Looks like it has not been updated in a while.

[Jonny Utah]

http://campus.hws.edu/upstate/

You mean this one?  Looks like it has not been updated in a while.

Exactly.  They even had it when I was in College.  It used to be posted up on one of the bulletin boards and had all sorts of good stuff on there.  I think the SIDs used to run it and the HWS SID put it all together.

Either way it was good.