FB: Liberty League

[JT]

The polls released yesterday and today, with the exception of one outlier, are decisively showing Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latestpolls/latest_election_polls.html

Is it just me, or have we all been collectively holding our breath, regardless of who you're rooting for here, for either Brown to not make any mistakes down the final stretch or for Coakley to stop making mistakes?  You always feel like an unknown like Brown could be prime fodder for an "October Surprise" moment that could be a major turning point.  Similarly, people have been scrutinizing every word coming out of Coakley's mouth now that she's appearing publicly -- making her attempt to save her campaign almost a no-win situation.  

The key figure -- Brown leads Coakley in the 18-29 year-old segment by a whopping and unheard-of 61-30 margin:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31621.html

Draw your own conclusions as to what this all means on a national level or a voter message -- but from an actual election and statistical analysis, this has me still scratching my head.  

[EDIT:  I looked at the Daily Kos website that shows the race as tied -- and it's an odd site.  Obama's favorable rating last week is shown at 55% on this site, which is 5-10 points off the other polls, including Gallup.  Not sure this polling is very accurate.]

[EDIT2:  Boston Globe calls Daily Kos a "liberal...blog" at http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/coakley_brown_t.html -- either way, averaging would give Brown a 5-6 point lead.]

The Kos kids are about as close to card carrying commies as one can get.

Of course, by JT's standards about 35-40% of Americans are 'card-carrying commies'!

If Brown is counting on 18-29 year-olds actually voting in a special election, he may be in for a shock.  They may get excited for a Presidential election (Obama benefitted from record turn-out), but non-Presidential elections are won by the over 50 crowd.  (There may be snow on the roof, but we VOTE.)

I probably should have clarified for my friend here.  The Kos is to the Democrats as Pat Robertson is to Republicans.   Almost nothing is left enough for the Kos kids, and almost nothing is right enough for Pat. Neither help the process.

Now that I could buy.  I never read Kos, and by JT's standards I'm certainly a leftist!

At least you own guns.

[JT]

JT, are you concerned that Brown seems to skew young, and young don't vote?

I'll predict Coakley with 52% (we old folks DO vote).

The battle has been fought.  I fought the good fight.  Whatever happens... happens.

[JT]

C'mon guys -- let's try to keep it non-skewed in any discussion, or we'll be summarily dismissed to the Politics Board.  Let's focus on the race and predictions on the outcome itself.

My mistake was not qualifying my Kos comment.  These are people that wish painful death on the opposition. They are just as bad as Robertson. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

C'mon guys -- let's try to keep it non-skewed in any discussion, or we'll be summarily dismissed to the Politics Board.  Let's focus on the race and predictions on the outcome itself.

I already suggested the removal to Politics.  I was ignored.

I've made my prediction, based on actual turnouts rather than what people claim to pollsters (I taught survey research before my retirement).  I await replies.

EDiT after seeing the posts after I typed: JT, I don't currently own guns (geez, don't tell my neighbors! ), but I DO know how to use them!

[Frank Rossi]

C'mon guys -- let's try to keep it non-skewed in any discussion, or we'll be summarily dismissed to the Politics Board.  Let's focus on the race and predictions on the outcome itself.

I already suggested the removal to Politics.  I was ignored.

I've made my prediction, based on actual turnouts rather than what people claim to pollsters (I taught survey research before my retirement).  I await replies.

EDiT after seeing the posts after I typed: JT, I don't currently own guns (geez, don't tell my neighbors! ), but I DO know how to use them!

Ypsi - I was a Poli Sci major who did a thesis on approval voting and other voting methods, so I have some knowledge in this direction.  If the 18-29 segment is voting 60-31 in one direction and the actual poll is showing a 9-point margin with no age bracket breaking in Coakley's direction, then the pollster is already taking into account a formula for "likely voters" that skews against a direct usage of the statistics.  While you are correct about tendencies, I think they have been taken into account from what I have seen in the independent +7 to +10 Brown polls cited by RealClearPolitics.com so far.

As for the Politics Board... I won't follow this discussion to there, so if that's your objective, let me know how it turns out.  I have enough trouble following this board every day time-wise!

[JT]

Lot of New Englanders and NE adjacent here.  And the LLPP does dabble in everything.  They just don't want to focus in any one area.  Getting bogged down in one thing.

I like where Brown is, given the political location. Beating the corrupt MA Democrat machine would be huge.  I believe like NJ and VA, it is a referendum on the President.  Coakley should be skating.

[Frank Rossi]

JT, how much faith do you have on accurate polling results reaching Boston for final tabulations without any numbers getting "mis-transmitted?"  80% of the MA counties are Dem-leaning, meaning they have control of the Boards of Elections to a certain degree.  That's my one huge concern here -- MA is a machine state, no doubt.

[JT]

JT, how much faith do you have on accurate polling results reaching Boston for final tabulations without any numbers getting "mis-transmitted?"  80% of the MA counties are Dem-leaning, meaning they have control of the Boards of Elections to a certain degree.  That's my one huge concern here -- MA is a machine state, no doubt.

If its really close, the Democrats will steal it... its how they do things.  The Franken election was stolen in Minn.  Ed Schultz the libs Limbaugh even said he'd vote 10 times if he could.  "Anything to stop those bastards".

I heard the Republicans will be out in force to verify safe elections.

And for those about to jump in with Bush 2000.  I'll give you that if you give me Nixon in 1960.  Fair is fair after all.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Hey, the former 'CCIW Chat' (once THE off-season place to be) has 'tamed out', so go for it!  If no one objects to a political discussion, I sure as hell don't!

Frank, pollsters are desperately working on it, but no one has figured the precise formula for converting self-proclaimed 'likely voters' (or past voters) into actual turnout.  Based on past results (Obama, 2008, excluded), I'm just saying any candidate relying too heavily on 18-29 voters is in deep doo-doo (to quote GHWB).

You're probably wise to stay off the Politics board - JT is considered a moderate!

[Frank Rossi]

Scott Rasmussen, whose polls over the last two weeks helped to spawn the national interest and shock in the MA Senate race, has a very interesting commentary on the situation.  While Rasmussen hasn't released a poll since last Monday, it appears he has taken the circumstances into full consideration to come up with a prediction for Tuesday's election.  I respect Rasmussen since he has, over time, adapted his techniques about as well as any independent pollster for things like cell phones, voter truthfulness and geography.  Give it a read at:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/what_will_happen_in_massachusetts_on_tuesday

[Frank Rossi]

Intrade.com, which helps predict political events by allowing "traders" to buy or sell probabilities much like stock traders or sports bettors, has seen some enormous movement in the Brown/Coakley race over the last 24 hours.  Brown, who held a slim lead in these securities at the beginning of the day, has pushed to a 77.0 - 28.0 lead in the pricing for the securities that would reflect the probability for a win by each respective candidate.  Stated differently, traders now believe that the likelihood of a Brown victory is around 70% as of 12:40am EST:

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

Even Chris Matthews and Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC have already predicted a loss by Coakley Tuesday.  In a race that will be dictated by turnout, it's mysterious why any Democratic-leaning organization or representative would make such statements that could discourage turnout.

[JT]

Intrade.com, which helps predict political events by allowing "traders" to buy or sell probabilities much like stock traders or sports bettors, has seen some enormous movement in the Brown/Coakley race over the last 24 hours.  Brown, who held a slim lead in these securities at the beginning of the day, has pushed to a 77.0 - 28.0 lead in the pricing for the securities that would reflect the probability for a win by each respective candidate.  Stated differently, traders now believe that the likelihood of a Brown victory is around 70% as of 12:40am EST:

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

Even Chris Matthews and Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC have already predicted a loss by Coakley Tuesday.  In a race that will be dictated by turnout, it's mysterious why any Democratic-leaning organization or representative would make such statements that could discourage turnout.

If true, and it plays out this way IMHO it makes it easier to distance Obama from Coakley.  They can work the weak campaign she ran... even Obama couldn't save her.  Its all about protecting the franchise (Obama) at any cost.  In truth, its Obama's performance that's dragging her under.

[Yanks 99]

I think the American people are asking two questions when they go to the polls now, regardless of party:

#1) Who is the incumbent, or guy that has been around the longest?

#2) Who is the other guy?

And then, like me...are voting for the other guy...

[PBR...]

dear lord!! does anyone have a good quiche recipe? phew could of sworn this is the reason we have a politics board...pbr's head hurts reading all this

[PBR...]

now this is some funny 'ish...an ad from air new zealand....cant see u.s. air running an ad like this here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfYtV-x4U5E