FB: Liberty League

[bleedpurple]

ANYONE INTERESTED IN BEING PART OF THE 2011 TOP 25 FAN POLL, PLEASE SEND ME A MESSAGE WITH YOUR CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. Now that Kickoff is out, I'd like to get our first poll out by the middle of next week.

[dlippiel]

3) Union -- if I defend this point, I'll be "making excuses."  However, Ithaca played like a team with a game under it's belt in 2010, and Union played like a team with no real scrimmage and no game.  I've never seen the team start a game THAT flat for Union -- and yet, that game was within 8 points at some key points.  The game is in Schenectady and is the third game this year for Union.  Ithaca has questions at QB while Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.  This game is pretty good on paper this year, especially if you believe Ithaca to be the fourth or fifth team in the E8 and Union as the second or third in the LL.  I expect a really good game.  Union/Utica is based more on the idea that we've never seem the teams play.  Union/Springfield was an extremely close game in Springfield until the very end -- this year it's in Schenectady.  I don't think expecting some close games in those games is too far of a reach here.

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.

This is going to be a HUGE part of the Dutchmen O. Two very talented and athletic brothers with receiving experience running routes with a seasoned SR QB distributing the ball to them may surprise some this year and help Union put last years por recor to rest. As long as Union can somewhat establish the run as a threat the pass should be somewhat lethal for the U.

Regarding SLU dlip has a hard time putting a finger on this teams potential in 2011. Last years 0-5 OOC record was embarrassing for a LL champ and really leaves alot in question as to their potential this year.

[Frank Rossi]

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Why am I afraid of what is going to be said about that first sentence?!  I can't even figure out what it was intended to be... Oof.

(Thanks for the kudos, though, dlip!)

[AUKaz00]

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Why am I afraid of what is going to be said about that first sentence?!  I can't even figure out what it was intended to be... Oof.

(Thanks for the kudos, though, dlip!)

Yeah, you U grads can keep your anal contests...

[dlippiel]

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Why am I afraid of what is going to be said about that first sentence?!  I can't even figure out what it was intended to be... Oof.

(Thanks for the kudos, though, dlip!)

Goodness dlip has made many odd posts but this one may be at the top. Sorry Frank, analysis is what dlip meant.

Do you concurr about Drew, Justin, and Connor's potential this season? Not wanting tp put to much pressure on the guys but there is a slight talent resemblence to Marotti, Twitch, and Angelietta no? dlip really thinks that is a ground game can materialize we may be on to something on the offensive side of the ball.

[dlippiel]

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Why am I afraid of what is going to be said about that first sentence?!  I can't even figure out what it was intended to be... Oof.

(Thanks for the kudos, though, dlip!)

Yeah, you U grads can keep your anal contests...

Oh ****! dlip may have started a warrented ****storm!

*By the way dlip is a UVM grad which may expain his few mistakes as of late 

[Bombers798891]

3) Union -- if I defend this point, I'll be "making excuses."  However, Ithaca played like a team with a game under it's belt in 2010, and Union played like a team with no real scrimmage and no game.  I've never seen the team start a game THAT flat for Union -- and yet, that game was within 8 points at some key points.  The game is in Schenectady and is the third game this year for Union.  Ithaca has questions at QB while Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.  This game is pretty good on paper this year, especially if you believe Ithaca to be the fourth or fifth team in the E8 and Union as the second or third in the LL.  I expect a really good game.  Union/Utica is based more on the idea that we've never seem the teams play.  Union/Springfield was an extremely close game in Springfield until the very end -- this year it's in Schenectady.  I don't think expecting some close games in those games is too far of a reach here.

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.

This is going to be a HUGE part of the Dutchmen O. Two very talented and athletic brothers with receiving experience running routes with a seasoned SR QB distributing the ball to them may surprise some this year and help Union put last years por recor to rest. As long as Union can somewhat establish the run as a threat the pass should be somewhat lethal for the U.

Regarding SLU dlip has a hard time putting a finger on this teams potential in 2011. Last years 0-5 OOC record was embarrassing for a LL champ and really leaves alot in question as to their potential this year.

The IC game was nowhere near as close as the score indicated. IC missed two FG's and fumbled at the Union 15 yard line and they were still up 28-7 in the fourth quarter. The Dutchmen were lucky to even be in that game.

My concern with Union is that, losing Coney, there's a possibility for the offense to become one dimensional, and that's problematic because Connolly, in roughly two seasons at the helm, has completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown four more picks than touchdowns. Now, he's losing the help that a great RB like Coney provides, and he's suddenly going to get religion because he's a senior?

I guess we just see it in two different ways. You know I'm a "Prove it before I believe it" kind of guy. Well, to me, Connolly hasn't proven he's the kind of guy that can carry an offense by himself. Will they go 2-7? No. But I'm skeptical.

[Frank Rossi]

You're also acting like I gave Union the (W) in that game.  I said there shouldn't be a 10-point favorite heading into it as of now.  At the same time, can you identify how your quarterback will perform this season at the helm?  Can you identify his name, even?

[Bombers798891]

You're also acting like I gave Union the (W) in that game.  I said there shouldn't be a 10-point favorite heading into it as of now.  At the same time, can you identify how your quarterback will perform this season at the helm?  Can you identify his name, even?

Since when is "not being a 10-point favorite" equatable to a toss-up? Just because you've come up with your own criteria for determining a toss-up doesn't mean we have to accept it as gospel. All three of the teams you've got Union in a toss-up against were better than they were last season, playing in a tougher conference.

Ithaca is unsettled at QB. I have no clue who it will be. However, I have more confidence in an undecided IC QB than I do in Connolly. Why? Because I think that most QB's should be able to do better than a 49% completion percentage and a 20-24 TD/INT ratio, which is what Connolly has produced. We may not have any evidence the Bombers will have a good QB next season, but we do have evidence that Connolly isn't very good

[Frank Rossi]

Let me repeat -- I didn't say Union would win the game.  I didn't say Ithaca would win the game.  I said the game has the potential to be close enough to allow either team a chance to win a close game depending on how the chips fall.  You're equating a toss-up to a Union win, which makes me scratch my head.

As for Connolly... I guess you forgot that he's the guy that was at the helm when Union beat your team in 2009 in Schenectady.  That was when he had less experience (he was one completion shy of .500 and threw for 1TD and 2INTs, but helped lead the team down the field for the answer to Ithaca's comeback).  Maybe the Empire Freight is better than the LL, but these two teams have played two interesting games in 2009 and 2010 -- and 2011 will be no different.

[Bombers798891]

Let me repeat -- I didn't say Union would win the game.  I didn't say Ithaca would win the game.  I said the game has the potential to be close enough to allow either team a chance to win a close game depending on how the chips fall.  You're equating a toss-up to a Union win, which makes me scratch my head.

As for Connolly... I guess you forgot that he's the guy that was at the helm when Union beat your team in 2009 in Schenectady.  That was when he had less experience (he was one completion shy of .500 and threw for 1TD and 2INTs, but helped lead the team down the field for the answer to Ithaca's comeback).  Maybe the Empire Freight is better than the LL, but these two teams have played two interesting games in 2009 and 2010 -- and 2011 will be no different.

First, as I said, I don't think they should be toss-ups. Possibly the IC game, but I think both Springfield and Utica are better teams and they should win. Union was a mediocre offensive team that lost its best offensive player. Sorry I don't have a specific point spread for you Frank. Granted, Connolly wasn't there for the SC game, so it's impossible to project how Union's offense would have done, but the defense gave up 450 yards, which isn't good

I remember the 2009 Union-IC game. Specifically, I remember Chris Coney running for 166 yards. Connolly? 13-of-27 with a touchdown and two picks. Let's not act like he was this otherworldly entity pulling a Joe Montana. He was better in 2010, especially once IC got up by three touchdowns and played soft. But once the heat turned up, where was he? Union's last two drives netted what? A blown snap, pass tipped at the line and a pick.

Oh, boy we're playing the experience game? My turn. In 2009, Mike Conti was in his first season as starter. Spence White had starting experience, but not as much as he does now. So if we're playing the "experience game," seems like IC's corners win out on that one over Connolly. Unless of course, only Connolly's allowed to get better, while White and Conti are the same guys they were last season?

[Frank Rossi]

The last drive netted the go-ahead score for Union in 2009. 

And if I'm accused of making excuses on here, your statement about why 2010 was such a close game was an excuse as well.  Put a point spread down on the game and quantify your confidence.  I would place Ithaca (playing in Schenectady) as a 4-point favorite (which is a toss-up in terms of all this).  Quantify it.

[lewdogg11]

The last drive netted the go-ahead score for Union in 2009. 

And if I'm accused of making excuses on here, your statement about why 2010 was such a close game was an excuse as well.  Put a point spread down on the game and quantify your confidence.  I would place Ithaca (playing in Schenectady) as a 4-point favorite (which is a toss-up in terms of all this).  Quantify it.

I actually think Union will win big.  i think Ithaca is going to be way down this year.

[Bombers798891]

The last drive netted the go-ahead score for Union in 2009. 

And if I'm accused of making excuses on here, your statement about why 2010 was such a close game was an excuse as well.  Put a point spread down on the game and quantify your confidence.  I would place Ithaca (playing in Schenectady) as a 4-point favorite (which is a toss-up in terms of all this).  Quantify it.

I think Ithaca will win 23-16. They will gain 365 yards of offense, although, if the wind picks up to over 5.4 MPH, I suspect that number will drop to 331. Defensively, they will allow 317 yards, but the number will increase 0.4% every two plays over 60 that the defense is on the field. Last season, that would have been 1.6%, but Ithaca's new A&E center figures to have improved the team's stamina 400%.

Ithaca is roughly 8% less effective on turf but 3% more effective if that turf is wet. I'll need to see a weather report to make the final call. Ithaca likes to receive the ball to start, so I figure Union's defense will be 13% more tired at the start of the second half,-provided IC wins the toss, a 50-50 proposition in and of itself.

Additionally, Union will get a 12% boost from playing their first home game, but it will come with a 1-in-5 chance of being over-aggressive in the opening quarter. While both Union's QB and best WR are getting a "senior upgrade," so are Ithaca's two corners. Technically, since they both could cover the same wideout, that counts double. Now, Ithaca's new defensive coordinator casts a +20 Cloak of Uncertainty on the defense, but it comes with an automatic "We're going to be more aggressive" upgrade (comes standard with any new defensive coordinator) which offsets that. But McDonough is an alum, which adds a +15 "He knows the system and is a 'True Bomber'" enhancement.

Add it all up, and yep, there's the 23-16 score.

Happy? As I've said Frank, I don't care for point spreads. Unless you're gambling on the games, they're of no use. I'm not a gambler, so I don't care if IC's a four-point favorite, or a 11-point favorite, nor do I care if your cutoff for determining toss-ups is 10 points. It's irrelevant to me.

Union went 2-7 last season in a bad conference. Ithaca went 6-4 in a good conference. Union is losing their best offensive player. Their returning quarterback has been sub-par for two seasons in a row. Ithaca has the pieces to shut down a one-dimensional Union offense. I'm sorry I can't come up with a specific point total associated with each of these points, but that's the way it is.

[dlippiel]

3) Union -- if I defend this point, I'll be "making excuses."  However, Ithaca played like a team with a game under it's belt in 2010, and Union played like a team with no real scrimmage and no game.  I've never seen the team start a game THAT flat for Union -- and yet, that game was within 8 points at some key points.  The game is in Schenectady and is the third game this year for Union.  Ithaca has questions at QB while Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.  This game is pretty good on paper this year, especially if you believe Ithaca to be the fourth or fifth team in the E8 and Union as the second or third in the LL.  I expect a really good game.  Union/Utica is based more on the idea that we've never seem the teams play.  Union/Springfield was an extremely close game in Springfield until the very end -- this year it's in Schenectady.  I don't think expecting some close games in those games is too far of a reach here.

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.

This is going to be a HUGE part of the Dutchmen O. Two very talented and athletic brothers with receiving experience running routes with a seasoned SR QB distributing the ball to them may surprise some this year and help Union put last years por recor to rest. As long as Union can somewhat establish the run as a threat the pass should be somewhat lethal for the U.

Regarding SLU dlip has a hard time putting a finger on this teams potential in 2011. Last years 0-5 OOC record was embarrassing for a LL champ and really leaves alot in question as to their potential this year.

The IC game was nowhere near as close as the score indicated. IC missed two FG's and fumbled at the Union 15 yard line and they were still up 28-7 in the fourth quarter. The Dutchmen were lucky to even be in that game.

My concern with Union is that, losing Coney, there's a possibility for the offense to become one dimensional, and that's problematic because Connolly, in roughly two seasons at the helm, has completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown four more picks than touchdowns. Now, he's losing the help that a great RB like Coney provides, and he's suddenly going to get religion because he's a senior?

I guess we just see it in two different ways. You know I'm a "Prove it before I believe it" kind of guy. Well, to me, Connolly hasn't proven he's the kind of guy that can carry an offense by himself. Will they go 2-7? No. But I'm skeptical.

Couple thoughts bombers:

Last year both teams were quite poor at Butterfield. Obvioulsy Union was a wreck, and played much worse than IC. Overall dlip wasn't impressed and/or happy with either teams performance. To dlip that was one of the worst games he has seen the Dutch play in quite some time and believe him he has been around Frank Bailey since he could walk if not before. Also during that game, regardless of numbers, Drew was one of the only Dutchmen to play with passion and seem somewhat focused with his assignments/responsibilities. Coney and the run game were completely a non factor against the Bombers and left Drew and his receivers as the only offensive threat. Drew clawed and helped his team make the score somewhat respectable (much more respectable than the game itself regarding Union's performance).

In regards to dlips thoughts on Drew as an effective QB here in 2011 he realizes that throughout his career his numbers may not be the best. To dlip, and he has no qualms with anyone disagreeing with him, Drew has shown the potential and occsionaly flashes of brilliance that support, IMHO, the position that he will be a capable leader this season. On top of this he has two very athletic and talented receivers in the Gallo brothers. Drews issues are obvious, his pics. They have been at times detrimental to the Dutchmens' progress and very untimely. If Drew can work through this, make better reads and throws, with the recievers around him, he may have a breakout season. dlip feels this will be the case. Now alsoone must factor in the shoulder (inj from last year) and how far it has come and how healthy he is. This scenario also reminds dlip of a few years back when Maroitti was taking snaps and throwing to two excellent receivers named Twicthell and Angileltta. Marotti was a pic machine but with a strong arm and his two route runners they, at times, tore it up throught he air. If Union can find a way to run the ball dlip feels Andrew Connellywill come into his own as a SR. dlip would also say, trying to be objective, he would take Connelly this year hands down over Hendel or Neumann to lead his team.