FB: Liberty League

[Bombers798891]

3) Union -- if I defend this point, I'll be "making excuses."  However, Ithaca played like a team with a game under it's belt in 2010, and Union played like a team with no real scrimmage and no game.  I've never seen the team start a game THAT flat for Union -- and yet, that game was within 8 points at some key points.  The game is in Schenectady and is the third game this year for Union.  Ithaca has questions at QB while Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.  This game is pretty good on paper this year, especially if you believe Ithaca to be the fourth or fifth team in the E8 and Union as the second or third in the LL.  I expect a really good game.  Union/Utica is based more on the idea that we've never seem the teams play.  Union/Springfield was an extremely close game in Springfield until the very end -- this year it's in Schenectady.  I don't think expecting some close games in those games is too far of a reach here.

dlip thinks Frank is right on here in his Union anal regarding contests against the Bombers and the Pride. Well said Frank.

Union has a Senior QB and his receiving corps back.

This is going to be a HUGE part of the Dutchmen O. Two very talented and athletic brothers with receiving experience running routes with a seasoned SR QB distributing the ball to them may surprise some this year and help Union put last years por recor to rest. As long as Union can somewhat establish the run as a threat the pass should be somewhat lethal for the U.

Regarding SLU dlip has a hard time putting a finger on this teams potential in 2011. Last years 0-5 OOC record was embarrassing for a LL champ and really leaves alot in question as to their potential this year.

The IC game was nowhere near as close as the score indicated. IC missed two FG's and fumbled at the Union 15 yard line and they were still up 28-7 in the fourth quarter. The Dutchmen were lucky to even be in that game.

My concern with Union is that, losing Coney, there's a possibility for the offense to become one dimensional, and that's problematic because Connolly, in roughly two seasons at the helm, has completed less than 50% of his passes and thrown four more picks than touchdowns. Now, he's losing the help that a great RB like Coney provides, and he's suddenly going to get religion because he's a senior?

I guess we just see it in two different ways. You know I'm a "Prove it before I believe it" kind of guy. Well, to me, Connolly hasn't proven he's the kind of guy that can carry an offense by himself. Will they go 2-7? No. But I'm skeptical.

Couple thoughts bombers:

Last year both teams were quite poor at Butterfield. Obvioulsy Union was a wreck, and played much worse than IC. Overall dlip wasn't impressed and/or happy with either teams performance. To dlip that was one of the worst games he has seen the Dutch play in quite some time and believe him he has been around Frank Bailey since he could walk if not before. Also during that game, regardless of numbers, Drew was one of the only Dutchmen to play with passion and seem somewhat focused with his assignments/responsibilities. Coney and the run game were completely a non factor against the Bombers and left Drew and his receivers as the only offensive threat. Drew clawed and helped his team make the score somewhat respectable (much more respectable than the game itself regarding Union's performance).

In regards to our thoughts on Drew as an effective QB here in 2011 we realize that throughout his career his numbers may not be the best. To dlip, and he has no qualms with anyone disagreeing with him, Drew has shown the potential and occsionaly flashes of brilliance that support, IMHO, the position that he will be a capable leader this season. On top of this he has two very athletic and talented receivers in the Gallo brothers. Drews issues are obvious, his pics. They have been at times detrimental to the Dutchmens' progress and very untimely. If Drew can work through this, make better reads and throws, with the recievers around him, he may have a breakout season. dlip feels this will be the case. Now alsoone must factor in the shoulder (inj from last year) and how far it has come and how healthy he is. This scenario also reminds dlip of a few years back when Maroitti was taking snaps and throwing to two excellent receivers named Twicthell and Angileltta. Marotti was a pic machine but with a strong arm and his two route runners they, at times, tore it up throught he air. If Union can find a way to run the ball dlip feels Andrew Connellywill come into his own as a SR. dlip would also say, trying to be objective, he would take Connelly this year hands down over Hendel or Neumann to lead his team.

Dlip, that was a well-thought out, reasoned, argument, backed up with facts. I commend you.

Well I would, except, to channel Frank, you didn't explain how any of those were quantified. So, I guess I can't give you a K+

[dlippiel]

dlip will go back and change a few words in his post. His post seemed to imply he was speaking for Frank as well and that is not the case. He assumes he an Frank feel the same about this but is not sure. He apologizes for any misunderstanding.

[Frank Rossi]

Happy? As I've said Frank, I don't care for point spreads. Unless you're gambling on the games, they're of no use. I'm not a gambler, so I don't care if IC's a four-point favorite, or a 11-point favorite, nor do I care if your cutoff for determining toss-ups is 10 points. It's irrelevant to me.

And it is relevant when you're sitting determining clear favorites in games that are weeks away without either team playing a down of football as of when I made those predictions.  That's why I used 10 as the cutoff, since we just don't know what the teams will look like when they take the field overall.  The fact that we have people debating both sides of this specific game should indicate that this game is presently a toss-up (which is how I characterized it in the list).  Even using a broad swath in determining clear favorites vs. toss-ups, I showed what I needed to show -- that the Empire Freight (name dedicated to the long-distance nature of the league for two seasons) will likely top out at #4 and likely return to #6/7 by the next set of rankings if I had to predict.  Q.E.D. and K.M.B. since you can't use my point spread analysis as both a sword and shield, Bombers.

[Bombers798891]

dlip will go back and change a few words in his post. His post seemed to imply he was speaking for Frank as well and that is not the case. He assumes he an Frank feel the same about this but is not sure. He apologizes for any misunderstanding.

Dlip, I know you weren't speaking for Frank. It's okay. I just meant, if I'm to follow Frank's instructions I must demand, in short sentences, that all analysis be quantified. I actually did like your post--although we'll agree to disagree about wanting Connolly as our QB.

What's up with his accuracy BTW? The picks can make sense, if a guy's forcing it, learning to read DB's, etc. But he really seems to struggle completing passes. I think, when you have a good running game, you can get away with that, because you can move the chains with a run, but shaky accuracy can be a problem when you lack a great run game because you're passing more in those 3rd-and-three, 3rd-and-four type scenarios. Zappia was okay in accurracy, but he sure wasn't a sure thing.

[Frank Rossi]

dlip will go back and change a few words in his post. His post seemed to imply he was speaking for Frank as well and that is not the case. He assumes he an Frank feel the same about this but is not sure. He apologizes for any misunderstanding.

Gotta love that I brought up those same points earlier in the week, dlip, and Bombers can't seem to get the idea yet that the game on paper is a close game most likely.  By the way, you had asked earlier about parallels to 2005's Union Offense.  I'd dispute it a little bit -- specifically, the difference was the play of Thomas Arcidiacono.  I think without him, the offense would've seen some level of struggle (the one-dimensional issue) with a more mediocre running back.  What Ithaca needs to be concerned about is whether or not Union has another TB in its arsenal this season.  While Coney was a unique individual and team player, Union has been RB-U over the last 20+ years.  Coach Audino has a knack for retooling that position.  However, Arcidiacono was more established in 2005 than any new RB would be -- and that's a key difference.

[Frank Rossi]

Dlip, I know you weren't speaking for Frank. It's okay. I just meant, if I'm to follow Frank's instructions I must demand, in short sentences, that all analysis be quantified.

No, Bombers.  Only when you harp on someone's argument about perceived point spread should you have to quantify your own argument.  Sword... Shield... KEEEEEEEEEP it up.

[Bombers798891]

Happy? As I've said Frank, I don't care for point spreads. Unless you're gambling on the games, they're of no use. I'm not a gambler, so I don't care if IC's a four-point favorite, or a 11-point favorite, nor do I care if your cutoff for determining toss-ups is 10 points. It's irrelevant to me.

And it is relevant when you're sitting determining clear favorites in games that are weeks away without either team playing a down of football as of when I made those predictions.  That's why I used 10 as the cutoff, since we just don't know what the teams will look like when they take the field overall.  The fact that we have people debating both sides of this specific game should indicate that this game is presently a toss-up (which is how I characterized it in the list).  Even using a broad swath in determining clear favorites vs. toss-ups, I showed what I needed to show -- that the Empire Freight (name dedicated to the long-distance nature of the league for two seasons) will likely top out at #4 and likely return to #6/7 by the next set of rankings if I had to predict.  Q.E.D. and K.M.B. since you can't use my point spread analysis as both a sword and shield, Bombers.

I never used your point spread as a sword. I disagreed with your conclusion that the game is a toss-up, even though my prediction, by your method, is a toss-up. In my mind however, a toss up is a game where I can't come up with a winner. In my mind, Ithaca will win the game, which makes it not a toss-up, regardless of how close I feel the game will be. Disagree with my conclusion all you want, but don't attempt to bully me into using your method of analysis to draw it. 

[Frank Rossi]

They haven't even played a game yet!  Their game is Week 3!  So, it's a clear-cut win for one team?  Damn you're good.

Hey, Pat!  We don't need to cover the games this year.  Bombers is going to just give us all the results right now!  That'll save tons in our travel budget!

[Bombers798891]

Dlip, I know you weren't speaking for Frank. It's okay. I just meant, if I'm to follow Frank's instructions I must demand, in short sentences, that all analysis be quantified.

No, Bombers.  Only when you harp on someone's argument about perceived point spread should you have to quantify your own argument.  Sword... Shield... KEEEEEEEEEP it up.

See Frank, here's the thing: It's not the point spread that's the issue. It's that you and I have different definitions of the word toss-up. In your mind, a toss-up is any game that has less than a 10-point spread using your analysis. In my mind, a toss-up is any game where I can't determine a winner using my analysis. So when I said, "Union has a lot of toss-ups for a team that went 2-7" I was saying that, in my mind, based on how I make predictions, there are a lot of games that you list as toss-up that I would not.

We both agree that Ithaca is the favorite in the game. You call them a four-point favorite, I think they'll win by seven. The difference is not in how we quantify that, but how we interpret the results

[Frank Rossi]

Don't work as a pollster, Bombers.  Ever see how they define toss-ups with sampling data?

[Bombers798891]

They haven't even played a game yet!  Their game is Week 3!  So, it's a clear-cut win for one team?  Damn you're good.

Hey, Pat!  We don't need to cover the games this year.  Bombers is going to just give us all the results right now!  That'll save tons in our travel budget!

Mount Union plays Wilmington in Week 3, Frank. Are you saying that because the teams haven't played yet, I can't declare a clear cut winner?

[Frank Rossi]

They haven't even played a game yet!  Their game is Week 3!  So, it's a clear-cut win for one team?  Damn you're good.

Hey, Pat!  We don't need to cover the games this year.  Bombers is going to just give us all the results right now!  That'll save tons in our travel budget!

Mount Union plays Wilmington in Week 3, Frank. Are you saying that because the teams haven't played yet, I can't declare a clear cut winner?

I'm saying that if your estimate falls within a certain margin of error, you call it a statistical toss-up.  That's how statisticians operate in many facets of the world.  Apparently, you don't.

[lewdogg11]

LSU's Jordan Jefferson got arrested for 2nd degree assault.  Police seized 49 pairs of sneakers from his apartment.

Seriously, what college kid has 49 pairs of sneakers?  Ya think he paid for all of those?  I doubt it.

[Bombers798891]

They haven't even played a game yet!  Their game is Week 3!  So, it's a clear-cut win for one team?  Damn you're good.

Hey, Pat!  We don't need to cover the games this year.  Bombers is going to just give us all the results right now!  That'll save tons in our travel budget!

Mount Union plays Wilmington in Week 3, Frank. Are you saying that because the teams haven't played yet, I can't declare a clear cut winner?

I'm saying that if your estimate falls within a certain margin of error, you call it a statistical toss-up.  That's how statisticians operate in many facets of the world.  Apparently, you don't.

See Frank, that's it, right there. You're right. I don't. Know why? Because I don't work as a statistician, in any facet of the world. I don't use margins of error. I'm not ignorant. I took, and aced, stats in grad school. I know all about confidence intervals, margins of error, all that fun stuff. I simply don't choose to apply it in this scenario.

So what, Frank? That doesn't make your method any better than mine, but you seem to think it does. I disagree with your end result, but I respect that you came up with your own way to do it. Sarcastically, I made fun of it, but that was clearly over the top. If that got lost in translation, I apologize for not being clearer. I disagreed with your conclusion, nothing more.

Sometimes Frank, it comes across like you look actually look down at people who don't use your method of analysis. I think Alfred may struggle at IC because the game is at Butterfield and they never play well there. I think Fisher will kill Ithaca because they own Ithaca. None of these are scientific in any method, but I don't purport them to be. I stand by them, just like you stand by yours, but I seriously do not have a problem if you used a different method than me.

[Pat Coleman]

Boy, I wish we got paid more than 58 cents per 1,000 page views with you two going at it.