FB: Liberty League

[mattvsmith]

Notice how calm, cool, and collected The Rev has been about the Utica game. No conniptions. No aneurisms. No strokes. Just mellow as can be.

Will ths season be a cake walk? No, the season has just begun and Hobart will face a few tough opponents. It's still too early to predict the future in solid terms.

Hobart is in a pretty good spot. Are they an elite team? No. One foray into the Elite 8 in playoffs does not make one an elite team, repeatedly making it to the Elite 8 does. Is Hobart still one of the best teams in the east and "the real deal"? Oh heck yeah. I'm pretty confident that with more games under their belt, Hobart O will tighten up, D will be back in top form, and Conlon will find himself.

[ITH radio]

That's an unusual report by the NCAA. They don't hand out an award for most total rushing yards, but they do hand one out for most rushing yards per game:

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/d3/current/individual/7

I agree and your link is probably the better measure.  I can see why the USMMA SID jumped on it though.  Still, even using the report you cite, McDaniels is in the Top 3 RYPG.  Quite an accomplishment for a SO who's only 3 games into his career.  Will be interesting to see if he can keep it going vs. Hobart's D or if the Statesmen are able to cool off his hot streak.

[Frank Rossi]

With respect to PA's Utica claims, I'm not seeing it, having watched two out of their three games this season.  Benkwitt is a major loss at QB, and Baldasarre is a huge loss at RB.  Defensively, aside from excellent blitzing, they can give up too many big plays (both to Union and Hobart).  Union's score and overall performance in 2013 vs. Utica compared to 2012 vs. Utica was better despite Union having a major O-line problem in that game this year (Union's defense was a good counter-balance there).  So, if the balancing point is, "Utica played well versus my team, meaning they're an excellent team this season," then I have trouble with that -- it's not the right measure for your team (let alone the other team).  I'd love to sit here and say Utica is a world-beater so that I can feel warm and fuzzy about Union this year, but I really think it does a disservice to people who take our opinions somewhat seriously.

I think the safer tack here is, "Hey, it was one game with a young QB and sometimes lethargic performance by Hobart.  One game does not a season make."  I've even said that with respect to Hobart, but I do have to point out the passing game questions because, presently, they're relevant.  Coach Cragg did a great job explaining his lack of concern last night -- and time will tell if the passing game catches up a bit during league play.  Again, though, my crew walked away from Gaetano generally unimpressed with Utica (except for Acevado's speed at WR and their ability to blitz a green Union O-line effectively).  Nothing I saw or heard from Saturday flipped my opinion -- I'd guess Utica will finish third or fourth in the E8, although the E8 as a whole has some consistency issues like the LL and NJAC this year.

[pumkinattack]

You don't have to put words in my mouth.  This Utica team looked better vs Hobart than last years team.  In those two games that's true. 

I heard half of last season, like MMA amongst other games, last year how there were flaws and problems for Hobart last year.  Grinding out double digit wins that weren't ever really in doubt by halftime are not a sign of weakness.  Strang, Mizro and Swanson all had growing pains and if he turns out as good as any of those I'll be happy.  This is probably either the 2nd or 3rd best team on Hobarts schedule this year (they just beat The Dutchmen), so if they can roll a 2-3 score lead in a game where they run like 20 plays, Conlon was below his capabilities by a lot and we give up long drives partly through 14 penalties the situation is far from dire.  No one in Geneva is concerned about your concerns.  Coach Cragg knows his job well and I'm sure there'll be some extra "work" this week.

Be worried about Schenectady.  Another 0-2 start, only 3 points last week.  That's stuff to really be worried about at this point in the season.

[Frank Rossi]

"No one in Geneva is concerned about your concerns..."

Except, some of the feedback I've been getting concerning this game came from people in or affiliated with Geneva.  Perhaps you meant Geneva, Switzerland?

[boobyhasgameyo]

With respect to PA's Utica claims, I'm not seeing it, having watched two out of their three games this season.  Benkwitt is a major loss at QB, and Baldasarre is a huge loss at RB.  Defensively, aside from excellent blitzing, they can give up too many big plays (both to Union and Hobart).  Union's score and overall performance in 2013 vs. Utica compared to 2012 vs. Utica was better despite Union having a major O-line problem in that game this year (Union's defense was a good counter-balance there).  So, if the balancing point is, "Utica played well versus my team, meaning they're an excellent team this season," then I have trouble with that -- it's not the right measure for your team (let alone the other team).  I'd love to sit here and say Utica is a world-beater so that I can feel warm and fuzzy about Union this year, but I really think it does a disservice to people who take our opinions somewhat seriously.

I think the safer tack here is, "Hey, it was one game with a young QB and sometimes lethargic performance by Hobart.  One game does not a season make."  I've even said that with respect to Hobart, but I do have to point out the passing game questions because, presently, they're relevant.  Coach Cragg did a great job explaining his lack of concern last night -- and time will tell if the passing game catches up a bit during league play.  Again, though, my crew walked away from Gaetano generally unimpressed with Utica (except for Acevado's speed at WR and their ability to blitz a green Union O-line effectively).  Nothing I saw or heard from Saturday flipped my opinion -- I'd guess Utica will finish third or fourth in the E8, although the E8 as a whole has some consistency issues like the LL and NJAC this year.

I don't think the E8 can be classified as having the same kind of issues as a conference like the NJAC this year. 

Our out of conference record this year is 14-7.  The NJAC out of conference record is 6-12.  I think we're also 4-0 against the NJAC in head-to-head.  I believe the E8 is of the same relative strength this year as they were last year.  Whatever Salisbury lost in strength (although I still think they are being undervalued at this point) Fisher seems to have found.   

[Frank Rossi]

Booby, some of the scores as they developed have been head scratchers this year, including Fisher's struggles at times.  I'm not sold on Ithaca's offense yet, and Alfred's trouble with RPI places a question mark there.  Buffalo State, too, has been a little all over the map (although, I try to throw out the UWW result when I consider them).  All told, it's tough to place a favorite in the E8 right now with any level of confidence.  I'm not trying to undercut the conference -- it's just something I've noticed as a voter.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I didn't think you were trying to undercut the E8 or anything.  It seemed as though most of the Alfred fans were too polite to say they didn't bring their finest effort against RPI.  They hinted at rust with comments about how it was evident they were playing their first game of the season while RPI already had a game under their belt.  I'm not so sure I give that credence but I do believe Alfred will end up fielding another solid team this year.  I agree with you regarding Ithaca's offense so far; although their defense has been impressive to date. 

I'm interested in what struggles you perceived Fisher to have so far this year.  Otterbein definitely had an above average defense but Fisher still managed to put up 28 points against them in a shutout.  Against a less talented defense in W&J they moved the ball at will with over 700 yards of offense and 40+ points.  W&J had three extremely dynamic offensive players (their QB especially) but Fisher managed to hold them to 21 points.  W&J averaged 49 ppg against their other two opponents.  So where in your mind is the struggle? 

[Frank Rossi]

I don't view W&J as a world-beater... I feel like Fisher should handle that team well.  I also have a contrarian view of the OAC after Mount Union -- I think we end up overvaluing teams in the OAC when they end up having only one OOC game.  It's tough to read what Otterbein's (or any other non-Mount Union OAC team's) strength is relatively each season.  They might be very good, but playoffs have generally been unkind to the second place OAC teams that have made it there if memory serves.  Don't get me wrong, SJF is my top team on my ballot from the E8, but I'm not sold on them running the table yet.  I wouldn't write Salisbury off yet, either.  Should be very interesting to watch.

[ExTartanPlayer]

"They might be very good, but playoffs have generally been unkind to the second place OAC teams that have made it there if memory serves."

I don't think this is really true. 2012 Heidelberg was bounced in the first round, yes. 2011 the runner up did not make it, but it should be noted that 8-2 runner up Baldwin Wallace led Mount in the 4th quarter AT Mount before falling 25-20. I think it's a fair guess that if they had gotten a Pool C, they would have been a fair bet to win at least one game. 2010 Ohio Northern won a first round game. 2009 runner up did not get in. 2008 Otterbein lost in the first round. 2007 Capital lost on the first round, but that was actually a strong performance against eventual national champ UWW (who best the next couple foes far worse than they did Capital. 2006 Capital won two playoff games before getting knocked out by Mount Union in a very close game; Cap might have been a top-5 team that year. 2005 Capital also won two playoff games and was eliminated by Mount. 2004 runner-up did not get in. 2003 Baldwin-Wallace won their first round game.

Over the last decade, that's four different OAC runners-up (Capital twice, Ohio Northern once, and Baldwin-Wallace once) going to the playoffs and winning at least one game in seven chances (since the runner-up did not get in for 2004, 2009, 2011). The OAC runner-up totaled a playoff record of 8-7 in that time, with two of those losses coming in rematches against Mount Union, and this went 8-5 against other conferences in that playoffs.  Good enough for me.  The devil's advocate could point out that most of those wins happened earlier in the decade that I've used, but I'll refer to the randomness of year-to-year trends. If the OAC runner-up is bounced early from the playoffs again this year and next, maybe I'll buy your argument, but there's enough cumulative evidence to me to show that the OAC runner-up holds its own just fine in the playoffs; the 8 playoff wins in the past decade by the runners-up is more than some conferences can claim in that time frame, and that's without even getting a chance "every" year (it's really eight wins in seven appearances).


Worth noting, IMO, is that several of the years in which the runner-up did not get in, it's because of self-inflicted wounds within the conference (ie multiple teams goin 8-2 or 7-3 and beating up on each other).

[Frank Rossi]

In other words, finding consistency in the OAC below Mount Union isn't possible, even if we stretch back to the last decade ;-)

[ExTartanPlayer]

In other words, finding consistency in the OAC below Mount Union isn't possible, even if we stretch back to the last decade ;-)

Huh? It's a good thing to see so many different schools named on that list, IMO. That's a sign of a deep conference, not an "inconsistent" one. You could take Mount off the top of the OAC and still have an above-average conference. Again: name me a conference that has eight playoff wins from Pool C teams in the past decade. Maybe the CCIW or MIAC can match that because they have gotten some deep playoff trips out of conference runners-up.

Also, I've made a bonehead math mistake. 1 win in 2003, 2 in 2005, 2 in 2006, and 1 in 2010 is six playoff wins. My bad. Still 6-5 in playoff games vs non-Mount opposition; pretty impressive for conference runners-up. Enough to refute the notion that the OAC is Mount and nothing else.

[Frank Rossi]

I don't remember as much action in the polls as I saw last year for OAC teams, except maybe in the ONU shocker year.  Yet, looking back to 2012, the success didn't pan out as much as hoped.  We can't go back much further to draw present conclusions about teams like Otterbein (which is what led to this discussion, in part).  However, your original post is a reminder that there really hasn't been an heir apparent to Mount Union in the OAC in the last decade.  The Pool C success argument becomes a slight conundrum since the OAC tends to have more access than most teams when Mount Union is normally ranked #1 regionally (with quality of losses often being meaningful in Pool C determinations).  My overall point, though, is that using Otterbein as a dipstick for SJF is a tough move that doesn't leave much of an answer about SJF for us.  If I look at that game as a nullity for now and the W&J game as a bit of a closer game than I'd expect coming in (it was a close game until late at home), then SJF has a little vulnerability right now.  They won by 4 on the road last year at W&J and lost three games on the season... The ultimate question I look at in the E8 this early is who can run the table -- and I'm not sure SJF can yet based on the results on the table.  I do like the variety of opponent SJF plays in their OOC games -- so don't get me wrong.  Coach Vos is someone I always talk well about in terms of his historically insanely strong scheduling philosophy leading to the Fisher juggernaut we've seen over the past decade.  It's just not a guarantee in any given year that it'll lead to 10-0.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I would actually never predict a 10-0 season for Fisher...they never even ran the table with their best teams.   I'm just not sold that they have shown any struggles this year.  Winning both games in monkey stomp fashion doesn't exactly show weakness to me.  I was at the W&J game and you can speak of the score being close until literally the opening minute of the 4th quarter but Fisher was thoroughly in control throughout the game.  W&J were out gained by nearly 300 yards.  There were a couple of ridiculous blown calls (like saying Kramer fumbled the ball on W&J's 6 yard line when he was so very clearly down) that prevented the game from being decided by 30+ points. 

As for the Pool C success - is there anywhere on the site that displays that kind of information?  I'd be interested in seeing a conference by conference breakdown.  I think that SJF alone has a 6-3 record in the playoffs as a Pool C since 2005. 

 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I would actually never predict a 10-0 season for Fisher...they never even ran the table with their best teams.   I'm just not sold that they have shown any struggles this year.  Winning both games in monkey stomp fashion doesn't exactly show weakness to me.  I was at the W&J game and you can speak of the score being close until literally the opening minute of the 4th quarter but Fisher was thoroughly in control throughout the game.  W&J were out gained by nearly 300 yards.  There were a couple of ridiculous blown calls (like saying Kramer fumbled the ball on W&J's 6 yard line when he was so very clearly down) that prevented the game from being decided by 30+ points. 

As for the Pool C success - is there anywhere on the site that displays that kind of information?  I'd be interested in seeing a conference by conference breakdown.  I think that SJF alone has a 6-3 record in the playoffs as a Pool C since 2005. 

I think you're right, and I admit this took me by surprise...I forgot that Fisher had gotten in a Pool C selection in both 2006 (Springfield Pool A) and 2007 (Hartwick Pool A), accounting for a bunch of those Pool C wins.  Incidentally, in both of those years, the E8's Pool A selection was eliminated earlier than Fisher (once actually BY Fisher).