FB: Liberty League

[rams1102]

Congratulations to Hobart and St. Lawrence on giving us a great game to the last second. Neither team gave up, time just ran out. The hitting was intense on both sides. Congrats to a Hobart freshman placekicker who stepped up with 1:03 to go. The last minute drive by SLU was valiant but fell short. Good luck to the Statesman in the Playoffs and St. Lawrence you are definitely strong enough to make the playoffs(the loss to Norwich is probably a killer unfortunately), as the NCAA will probably give a nod to the E8 for a second team, so Fisher will probably squeak in, but you should hold your heads up.

I think the nod will go to the MAC and Lawrence SB next if it happens.

[D O.C.]

Way to go, Hobart.

[Boxer7806]

Congratulations to Hobart and St. Lawrence on giving us a great game to the last second. Neither team gave up, time just ran out. The hitting was intense on both sides. Congrats to a Hobart freshman placekicker who stepped up with 1:03 to go. The last minute drive by SLU was valiant but fell short. Good luck to the Statesman in the Playoffs and St. Lawrence you are definitely strong enough to make the playoffs(the loss to Norwich is probably a killer unfortunately), as the NCAA will probably give a nod to the E8 for a second team, so Fisher will probably squeak in, but you should hold your heads up.

Two teams from the MAC will get in this year. I don't think Fisher has a chance to get in this year. Too many 1 loss teams this year, especially from the east, for them to hop over and get in. Widener and Del Val will be the two reps from the MAC and our only 2 bid league.

[Bartman]

Congratulations to Hobart and St. Lawrence on giving us a great game to the last second. Neither team gave up, time just ran out. The hitting was intense on both sides. Congrats to a Hobart freshman placekicker who stepped up with 1:03 to go. The last minute drive by SLU was valiant but fell short. Good luck to the Statesman in the Playoffs and St. Lawrence you are definitely strong enough to make the playoffs(the loss to Norwich is probably a killer unfortunately), as the NCAA will probably give a nod to the E8 for a second team, so Fisher will probably squeak in, but you should hold your heads up.

Two teams from the MAC will get in this year. I don't think Fisher has a chance to get in this year. Too many 1 loss teams this year, especially from the east, for them to hop over and get in. Widener and Del Val will be the two reps from the MAC and our only 2 bid league.

Totally agree now that I have had some time to analyze the field properly. If St. Lawrence had beaten Norwich or Fisher had beaten Salisbury the analysis would be different, but agree that 2 losses shouldn't make it this year .

[jmcozenlaw]

Last Updated - November 12, 2014

Regional Rankings

EAST         
1 Delaware Valley 9-0 9-0     
2 Hobart 9-0 9-0     
3 Widener 9-0 9-0     
4 Framingham State 8-1 8-1     
5 Ithaca 7-2 7-2     
6 St. John Fisher 6-2 7-2     
7 MIT 8-0 8-0     
8 St. Lawrence 7-2 7-2     
9 Rowan 6-3 6-3     
10 Husson 6-1 7-1

[Bartman]

Last Updated - November 12, 2014

Regional Rankings

EAST         
1 Delaware Valley 9-0 9-0     
2 Hobart 9-0 9-0     
3 Widener 9-0 9-0     
4 Framingham State 8-1 8-1     
5 Ithaca 7-2 7-2     
6 St. John Fisher 6-2 7-2     
7 MIT 8-0 8-0     
8 St. Lawrence 7-2 7-2     
9 Rowan 6-3 6-3     
10 Husson 6-1 7-1

So Hobart has a higher SOS than Delaware Valley this week(.498 v. .482 and has beaten a  ranked regional opponent :St. Lawrence vs. DELVal beating an unranked Morrisville State), yet Delaware Valley is ranked in #1 spot??? In fact, I think a stronger case could be made for Widener to be above Del Val who beat a ranked Rowan and I think will win the head to head on Saturday with the stronger defense. This all does not make sense to me based on my paucity of experience with this system. Also, the LL has a higher OOC winning percentage overall than the MAC this year and was a higher ranked conference by D3 Footall this year(did not look at comparative of OOC strength of schedules between conferences, maybe that is it?).
Also looked at the projections by Keith in the "Wesley" region and Hobart would be ceded (although I know they don't say it is a ceding ) below BOTH Del Val and Widener. This also does not make sense to me , but maybe driven by a close proximity to Ithaca for a first round game? If this comes to pass, Hobart has only one home game and loses the chance for 2 because of an ERR that seems questionable.  I guess someone is sending a strong message  that Hobart needs to schedule stronger non-conference opponents, but the 9-1 MAC team gets an easier path???
Oh well,  would love to be in a bracket with Wesley(had a great game there with our then second string QB in 2011, losing by 7 ) and a home game against Ithaca if they both come to pass(2 classic defenses) . In the perfect world, would rather see 2 home games, the second with Ithaca(also E8 champ with no home game in first round of playoffs?) and then travel to balmy Wesley.Of course, all this is theoretical until Sunday. More importantly, Hobart  needs to stay focused on a Rochester team that will be up for the big upset in Geneva on Saturday or The Boz will be a lonely place on 11/22.

[ITH radio]

There's a chance with WID beating DVC that HOB could end up as the 1, but beating UofR won't add a RRO or much as far as SoS goes. The one hope is if WID wins (and ROW loses), they'd end up in a "Whitewater rule" situation (same resume as far as RROs, SOS being close so basically advantage HOB given more prior playoff experience in recent years compared to Pride).

[Bartman]

There's a chance with WID beating DVC that HOB could end up as the 1, but beating UofR won't add a RRO or much as far as SoS goes. The one hope is if WID wins (and ROW loses), they'd end up in a "Whitewater rule" situation (same resume as far as RROs, SOS being close so basically advantage HOB given more prior playoff experience in recent years compared to Pride).

How close is close in SOS? I crunched some numbers and if Hobart beats Rochester their  SOS goes up to about .500 and if Widener beats DV , WID would jumps up to about .520, so with Rowan losing hypothetically and dropping out of the final RR after Saturday , it still gives WID a 1-0 against RRO(same as Hobart if SLU wins and stays in RRO), but I think WID would have a slight advantage over Hobart, especially if they take into consideration the quality of the RRO win against DelVal. The argument if DelVal wins isn't any better, so I think Hobart is relegated to a 3 seed, which means probably one home game (Hope I am wrong). Alas, being ranked #8 nationally doesn't help Hobart escape the lighter OOC schedule this year 

[ITH radio]

My guess is 3 is where they land but you never know, especially if MoVille catapults in, Husson wins ECFC and pairings get tricky. Hobart could potentially end up in a more "favorable" bracket. End of day 2nd re games home or away will be tough, but being home certainly helped vs Witt in 2012.

In crunching SOS did you factor in an 8 w SLU and row losing causing a dip in SOS for WID?

[Bartman]

   After 9 games into the season the effect on Widener SOS resulting from Rowan losing their next game is not significant enough to make a difference, and I assumed SLU would win their last game, so unless there is a bigger "Wisconsin Whitewater" effect, I think Hobart only has to print enough tickets for one game.
   I would love a Hobart against Ithaca draw as a rematch of E8 vs. LL champs in the playoffs(with a different outcome than last year). If they keep the MAC champ and Hobart  in the same bracket, Hobart has  a decent chance of beating either of these teams on the road in a 2 vs 3 matchup, but  a second home game would be preferable. 
   This is a special senior class that has  lost only one LL game in 4 years(RPI 29-28), so they should be highly motivated for the playoffs no matter where they play, especially after gaining confidence to claw back in the dramatic last minute win against SLU.
 

[Bombers798891]

   
   I would love a Hobart against Ithaca draw as a rematch of E8 vs. LL champs in the playoffs

What rematch?

[Bartman]

   
   I would love a Hobart against Ithaca draw as a rematch of E8 vs. LL champs in the playoffs

What rematch?

To clarify, I meant to say a rematch of LL champs with an E8 team in playoffs(last year was Hobart vs. SJF), realize that Ithaca was the E8 champ last year, so please forgive . Still would like to see the Bombers in the playoffs. Good luck to Ithaca in Cortaca.

[Bombers798891]

   
   I would love a Hobart against Ithaca draw as a rematch of E8 vs. LL champs in the playoffs

What rematch?

To clarify, I meant to say a rematch of LL champs with an E8 team in playoffs(last year was Hobart vs. SJF), realize that Ithaca was the E8 champ last year, so please forgive . Still would like to see the Bombers in the playoffs. Good luck to Ithaca in Cortaca.

I'd love it too. We should be playing in the regular season. Best of luck in the playoffs

[Bartman]

   
   I would love a Hobart against Ithaca draw as a rematch of E8 vs. LL champs in the playoffs

What rematch?

To clarify, I meant to say a rematch of LL champs with an E8 team in playoffs(last year was Hobart vs. SJF), realize that Ithaca was the E8 champ last year, so please forgive . Still would like to see the Bombers in the playoffs. Good luck to Ithaca in Cortaca.

I'd love it too. We should be playing in the regular season. Best of luck in the playoffs

Totally agree that Cragg/AD should schedule during the season instead of Dickinson or sub one of the Mass. teams, and then maybe Hobart wouldn't have to continually answer for a weak schedule. It is clear this year that 10-0 isn't  any better than 9-1 year with a stronger SOS.

[ITH radio]

Cragg reportedly advocated an E8/LL series sim to PAC-MAC but a cpl LL schools wouldn't go for it.

Still, I do think IC will end up in LL w/I the next cpl of years. No proof, just a hunch.