FB: Liberty League

[Bartman]

Union 40
Hobart 3

Taste it!

Jonny,
     That's the forecast if the Hockey teams play...right? I wouldn't be so confident........ the D3 Statesmen skaters are pretty tough

[Bartman]

According to SOS rankings, Hobart is in at 36 and Union at 111. Interesting stat, but last season Statesmen needed to come back against a gritty Dutchmen squad so they can't be too overconfident going into this weekend's game. Union's TOM is pretty impressive, like +11, so Hobart will need to take care of the ball.

This weekend is certainly exciting and dlip believes the Dutchmen have earned this excitement and all the anticipation that comes along with their recent success.

Some things that have stuck out to dlip about Union when thinking about them as a top three finisher in the LL. First is the undeniable fact that their schedule has not been all that challenging thus far. Gallaudet and Coast Guard just aren't very good (although both have some excellent athletes on their rosters). Curry is still somewhat of a mystery, U of R is atrocious, Husson is a good football team, and SLU is struggling but probably on of the best one win teams in the nation now (for whatever that is worth). So yes the Dutchmen deserve to be proud of their accomplishments and dlip cannot remember a time he was so happy with the program. Honestly it's not the W's and L's it's the culture and all the "little" things that have changed. Win or lose the changes are more than obvious to the objective observer. Union's 0-10 team would not be 6-1 right now period.

Union's defense has been improving each week and have now come through with two absolutely dominating weeks of punishing their opponent's offense. This team is physical and they are ****ing ball hawks. They make mistakes but also make big plays and consistently make offensive players uncomfortable with their play. dlip hasn't witnessed a Dutchmen defense do so many little things well since the glory days of the late 80's and early to mid 90's. Does that mean they are on par with an offense of Hobart's pedigree? Well, we"ll see come Saturday.

The play of Union's youth has been off the charts and exceeded any expectation dlip had. Union's offensive line has been excellent overall. They are certainly inconsistent at times (youth) but they have showed the ability to take over some key parts of games and helped the running game set up the big play third down pass time and again.

The play of QB Nick Cascione has been fantastic. He is poised, has not gotten frustrated when mistakes have been made, and his accuracy has improved ten fold. He is a poised leader back there who has developed from hard work and buying into the guidance of his head coach. dlip could not be more proud.

Dlip could go on, however he must get to the point at hand...where are the Dutchmen in relation to the LL's top three teams. Simple, like he said before we'll see this weekend. dlip honestly has no idea what to think. Does he think Union can win on Saturday? Sure, he knows one thing Hobart better not take the Dutchmen lightly. With that being said though he certainly can see this game serving as a reminder of just how far the climb out of disparity is. Eaither way, to dlip this weekend and the remainder of the season are a win win for Union...as long as they don't completely ****ing implode lol.

dlip,
    +k for sticking with your team through thick and thin. The Dutchmen play the Statesmen and they are in first place.....what were the odds of that before the season? Congratulations to your coaching staff and the boys for getting to this point. Just so you know, Hobart will start off slow and there is a good chance the Dutchmen will have a lead at the half. The Dutchmen will win if they win the second half as that is where another Hobart team(the better one) has shown up in every game (other than Ithaca...and look what happened there ). The Statesmen are VERY hungry , so if you win this one you deserve it, the Statesmen will NOT be taking Union lightly. Good luck.

[Bartman]

LAST WEEK:

RPI         24(27)         Ithaca               21(14)                Engineers confuse Bombers with trickery to win game CHECK
Hobart    42(49)         Hartwick            31(27)                Hartwick for real, but Hobart has 500+ on offenseCHECK
Union      42 (27)        Rochacha          14(0)                  UNION in sole possession of First Place!...no one cares about Hockey on campusCHECK
SLU        17(21)         Buff State         28(24)                Larries are really slumping, but hope I am wrongCHECK
Union ends week in first place , followed by one loss IC, RPI and Hobart....now Dutchman have target on their back               4-0 , Best week so far

THIS WEEK

Hobart      30          Union      17                  Union up 14-10 at half...Hobart storms back in 2nd half
Rochester 14           SLU         35                 Larries get to celebrate 2nd win
SJF          10           Ithaca      24                 Bombers get E8 win, Nabi plays conservatively and throws to only IC receivers
RPI          21           Alfred       17                 RPI playing hungry and  LL goes 2-0 over E8
Hobart, Union,RPI and Ithaca all have 1 LL loss..standings are tight

[UfanBill]

 

According to SOS rankings, Hobart is in at 36 and Union at 111. Interesting stat, but last season Statesmen needed to come back against a gritty Dutchmen squad so they can't be too overconfident going into this weekend's game. Union's TOM is pretty impressive, like +11, so Hobart will need to take care of the ball.

Strength of schedule in this comparison is misleading and meaningless. Hobart played and lost convincingly to Brockport. If played, Brockport would beat Union too. 'Bart also lost a tossup game to Ithaca. Union lost to a strong 5-1 Husson team in a game that if played today I believe the Dutchmen win. The rest of their opponents were basically a wash. Union beat a 5-1 Curry and Hobart 5-1 Shenandoah. A strength of schedule difference of 36 vs 111? Who cares? Can the Dutchmen D slow down Sweeney?  Will Union's youth and injuries catch up with them. Whose special teams make a mistake? Does Hobart really believe Union's a serious threat? St. Lawrence didn't.

[Bartman]

According to SOS rankings, Hobart is in at 36 and Union at 111. Interesting stat, but last season Statesmen needed to come back against a gritty Dutchmen squad so they can't be too overconfident going into this weekend's game. Union's TOM is pretty impressive, like +11, so Hobart will need to take care of the ball.

Strength of schedule in this comparison is misleading and meaningless. Hobart played and lost convincingly to Brockport. If played, Brockport would beat Union too. 'Bart also lost a tossup game to Ithaca. Union lost to a strong 5-1 Husson team in a game that if played today I believe the Dutchmen win. The rest of their opponents were basically a wash. Union beat a 5-1 Curry and Hobart 5-1 Shenandoah. A strength of schedule difference of 36 vs 111? Who cares? Can the Dutchmen D slow down Sweeney?  Will Union's youth and injuries catch up with them. Whose special teams make a mistake? Does Hobart really believe Union's a serious threat? St. Lawrence didn't.

Chill Ufan......all you say is true.......last time I checked SOS doesn't score actual TDs....... Union is in first place.....Union is playing at home....believe me....Hobart will be taking the Dutchmen very seriously on Saturday...The Dutchmen have  earned it

[UfanBill]

Bartman...you're the one that brought up the SOS argument. Thanks for agreeing that "all I say is true". +k...I commend you for your LL predictions. They're much better than Bombers.

It's so much fun to have UNION in the mix...Let's GO U

[Bombers798891]

Bartman...you're the one that brought up the SOS argument. Thanks for agreeing that "all I say is true". +k...I commend you for your LL predictions. They're much better than Bombers.

It's so much fun to have UNION in the mix...Let's GO U

What a random criticism of a set of four predictions done for fun and to spark discussion on a discussion board.

[Bombers798891]

Strength of schedule in this comparison is misleading and meaningless..... A strength of schedule difference of 36 vs 111? Who cares?

I think data points are interesting. No, it's not going to have any impact on the game on Saturday, but that doesn't rule it out as a topic of conversation

Does Hobart really believe Union's a serious threat? St. Lawrence didn't.

I think it's not that St. Lawrence didn't take Union seriously (unless you heard some coaches/players saying that). I think it's simply that Union's a much better team than St. Lawrence, and that showed up.

[Bombers798891]

Here are my "Not as good as Bartman's" predictions for this weeks games:

GOTW: Hobart/Union- Who saw that one coming in the preseason? This is the first big conference test of the season for Union, which has really turned in a memorable campaign. They get the game at home, which is always helpful. Hobart's a first down away from being 6-1 and in control of their own destiny in the LL. We've seen a stout Dutchmen D so far this season, but Sweeney/Shed is a different animal than they've seen most of the year. I think Union hangs tough, but Hobart pulls away

Prediction: Hobart 34, Union 21.

St. Lawrence/Rochester: Two struggling teams. St. Lawrence is just having one of those seasons where nothing seems to be going right. But they've shown some fight. Rochester, at times, simply looks overmatched, especially on offense.

Prediction: St. Lawrence 24, Rochester 3

RPI/Alfred: I'm not sure what to make of RPI. I'm still not sold on the offense, which had their scoreless streak reach nine quarters before finally bursting through with 27 points thanks to some short fields provided by a great special teams and defensive performance. But this Alfred team feels strangely like Ithaca. They've scored between 17 and 24 points each week—except for their breakout game against Rochester. And we all saw what RPI did to IC.

Prediction: RPI 24, Alfred 21

Ithaca/Fisher: What used to be the E8's marquee matchup is now an undercard event. The Bombers' loss to RPI has to be troubling, as the offense took a step back. The Cardinals have had a miserable season, but might be feeling better after their first win of the season. Still, Fisher's offense has never gotten on track this season—even last week, the offense scored just 11 points in regulation. Close game, but the Bombers take it at home

Prediction: Ithaca 23, Fisher 17

LL Power Rankings

1. Union- Same rule from before holds. In the land of the vanishing Pool C bid, the team that controls its own destiny gets the top spot. Union can make a big statement with a win.
2. Hobart- Boy, that loss to Ithaca has to sting—especially given that it was a mere first down away. But the Statesmen have responded, and survived a tough game against Team Boltus at the Cage.
3. RPI- This is where rankings get messy. RPI beat Ithaca, who beat Hobart, who beat RPI. How do we sort everyone? I don't know. Some people might flip 3/4.
4. Ithaca- The Bombers have two weeks to get things straightened out before Union comes to town in a game that will have major Pool A ramifications.
5. St. Lawrence- A tough season for them. But they're well coached and competitive, and they'll turn it around.
6. Rochester- Still struggling.

[Jonny Utah]

Union 40
Hobart 3

Taste it!

Jonny,
     That's the forecast if the Hockey teams play...right? I wouldn't be so confident........ the D3 Statesmen skaters are pretty tough

Ha.  I just want to give some locker room bulletin board material for Hobart.

I honestly have not been able to watch that much D3 football this year.  I watched about half of the IC/Brockport game and most of the IC/Hobart game and parts of the Brockport/Hobart game.  Hobart's year is a little puzzling.  Without knowing who came back from last year, it is clear they are "missing" something on offense.  From the little I watched it seemed they were just putting plays together without the system offense they were running last year.  I could be wrong as I have only watched about 4 total quarters of Hobart football.  You can throw it up to Shed every once in a while, but if teams adjust, you need to have something else in the arsenal and I'm not sure Hobart has figured that out yet.  Sometimes it does take 5-6 games to figure out what guys can do and maybe Hobart will figure that out and do some damage the rest of the year.

Ithaca has gone with the frosh QB and that is a big deal.  New coaching staff, new quarterback, new offense with completely new schemes like option, inside zone and some no huddle/tempo concepts that the bombers seem to have picked up on.  #2 Gladney is a stud potential All-American type WR which is also the X Factor in this offense.  Like Shed, the Bombers can just throw it up to this guy and he will make catches against smaller dbacks and will also make tough catches over the shoulder, one handed, etc.

Union is doing some things similar to Ithaca, with a real young oline and some senior leadership at QB and WR.  Berhman took a step back with some of the scheduling but that may have been the best thing for this team.

RPI I have no idea.  I saw them play last year at MIT and they seem to be a well coached football team with some good playmakers. 

SLU is possibly suffering from departed coach syndrome that often follow teams where coaches take a "step up" to other jobs (although this may not have been a step "up").  Often times there is a year or two gap in recruiting that effects the school that the coach leaves from.

Rochester needed a change.  Like Union and Ithaca, things were getting stale there and a new coaching staff with new ideas should help the program.  Not sure how much help Greene had in the admissions office either, as rumors of Audino's help there and in the financial office may have also led to his demise.  0-10 is 0-10 though.  Ithaca had the benefit of Welch announcing his retirement and having a new coach come in soon enough to stabilize recruiting and it looks like it paid off with their quarterback.

I've also noticed that Union and Hobart have about 15-20 New England/MA Catholic school players on their rosters.  RPI has about 10 and Rochester has about 2.  I'm thinking Rochester needs to hit this area of recruiting in the future.

[Bartman]

Bartman...you're the one that brought up the SOS argument. Thanks for agreeing that "all I say is true". +k...I commend you for your LL predictions. They're much better than Bombers.

It's so much fun to have UNION in the mix...Let's GO U

Ufan.........I got lucky last week, I am sure Bombers has had a better record overall....but we all do it for fun. Now as far as SOS, I do think it has some relevance when ranking teams, although it is only one measure, which is why I offered it last week as a data point for consideration in the ERFP thread. While I don't think it means anything before a game like Saturday's, it is relevant for the NCAA when they rank teams for the Pool C at the end of the season, mostly for comparing (although imperfect) teams in different conferences......blah,blah,blah...........You can hrow it all out the window because on Saturday it is just the Dutchmen against the Statesmen and a good old F*#@#** football game .....GOBART

[Bombers798891]

I've also noticed that Union and Hobart have about 15-20 New England/MA Catholic school players on their rosters.  RPI has about 10 and Rochester has about 2.  I'm thinking Rochester needs to hit this area of recruiting in the future.

According to the NFHS data, there are 39,425 11-man HS FB players in Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine. There's what, 33 D3 teams, 8 DII, 3 FBS, and 11 FCS teams in those states? That's 55 teams, and of course, as you say, plenty of NY teams recruit in that area. You know a lot more about HS football than I do, but I wonder: Is the depth of talent there for a school like Rochester to make inroads? (Not that they shouldn't try, of course)

[Jonny Utah]

I've also noticed that Union and Hobart have about 15-20 New England/MA Catholic school players on their rosters.  RPI has about 10 and Rochester has about 2.  I'm thinking Rochester needs to hit this area of recruiting in the future.

According to the NFHS data, there are 39,425 11-man HS FB players in Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine. There's what, 33 D3 teams, 8 DII, 3 FBS, and 11 FCS teams in those states? That's 55 teams, and of course, as you say, plenty of NY teams recruit in that area. You know a lot more about HS football than I do, but I wonder: Is the depth of talent there for a school like Rochester to make inroads? (Not that they shouldn't try, of course)

Oh yea I would think so.  These are some of the best academic high schools in the country, and colleges like Rochester, Union and Hobart which are also some of the best colleges in the country should recruit these schools heavily.  In addition to that, many of them have strong focuses on football and athletics in general.  I'm also assuming you are getting a lot of tuition paying students from these schools as well (parents who think nothing about writing a 60K check for one year of college). 

An eyeball look at Liberty League recruiting tells me that the best way to build football rosters is still with local Upstate, NY talent at local public high schools.  New England prep/Catholic is probably equal or behind to NJ/PA recruiting but is still a factor.  Public HS in CT and MA may be a distant 4th or 5th with random football camp guys from other parts of the country (Brandon Shed) factoring in there somewhere.

[dlippiel]

According to SOS rankings, Hobart is in at 36 and Union at 111. Interesting stat, but last season Statesmen needed to come back against a gritty Dutchmen squad so they can't be too overconfident going into this weekend's game. Union's TOM is pretty impressive, like +11, so Hobart will need to take care of the ball.

This weekend is certainly exciting and dlip believes the Dutchmen have earned this excitement and all the anticipation that comes along with their recent success.

Some things that have stuck out to dlip about Union when thinking about them as a top three finisher in the LL. First is the undeniable fact that their schedule has not been all that challenging thus far. Gallaudet and Coast Guard just aren't very good (although both have some excellent athletes on their rosters). Curry is still somewhat of a mystery, U of R is atrocious, Husson is a good football team, and SLU is struggling but probably on of the best one win teams in the nation now (for whatever that is worth). So yes the Dutchmen deserve to be proud of their accomplishments and dlip cannot remember a time he was so happy with the program. Honestly it's not the W's and L's it's the culture and all the "little" things that have changed. Win or lose the changes are more than obvious to the objective observer. Union's 0-10 team would not be 6-1 right now period.

Union's defense has been improving each week and have now come through with two absolutely dominating weeks of punishing their opponent's offense. This team is physical and they are ****ing ball hawks. They make mistakes but also make big plays and consistently make offensive players uncomfortable with their play. dlip hasn't witnessed a Dutchmen defense do so many little things well since the glory days of the late 80's and early to mid 90's. Does that mean they are on par with an offense of Hobart's pedigree? Well, we"ll see come Saturday.

The play of Union's youth has been off the charts and exceeded any expectation dlip had. Union's offensive line has been excellent overall. They are certainly inconsistent at times (youth) but they have showed the ability to take over some key parts of games and helped the running game set up the big play third down pass time and again.

The play of QB Nick Cascione has been fantastic. He is poised, has not gotten frustrated when mistakes have been made, and his accuracy has improved ten fold. He is a poised leader back there who has developed from hard work and buying into the guidance of his head coach. dlip could not be more proud.

Dlip could go on, however he must get to the point at hand...where are the Dutchmen in relation to the LL's top three teams. Simple, like he said before we'll see this weekend. dlip honestly has no idea what to think. Does he think Union can win on Saturday? Sure, he knows one thing Hobart better not take the Dutchmen lightly. With that being said though he certainly can see this game serving as a reminder of just how far the climb out of disparity is. Eaither way, to dlip this weekend and the remainder of the season are a win win for Union...as long as they don't completely ****ing implode lol.

dlip,
    +k for sticking with your team through thick and thin. The Dutchmen play the Statesmen and they are in first place.....what were the odds of that before the season? Congratulations to your coaching staff and the boys for getting to this point. Just so you know, Hobart will start off slow and there is a good chance the Dutchmen will have a lead at the half. The Dutchmen will win if they win the second half as that is where another Hobart team(the better one) has shown up in every game (other than Ithaca...and look what happened there ). The Statesmen are VERY hungry , so if you win this one you deserve it, the Statesmen will NOT be taking Union lightly. Good luck.

Thanks bartman! +k back at ya! Are you headed to Frank Bailey this weekend? If you are we should say hello pal.

[Bartman]

Dlip,
    I am trying to make it...I will let you know...a great place to see a game