FB: Liberty League

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear says good talk here...as any talk about Union having a chance to defeat the #1 ranked team in the East Region is good talk. 

Ice Bear says for Union to defeat IC the following things will need to happen:

For Union:
-Sustained pressure on Joe G. Maybe not on every play, but at the very least once per set of downs. Joe will make plays regardless. Pressure will at least make him think/work more.
-Make Vito beat you (which along with Joe G, he can). Double up Gladney and make his life as miserable as possible at all times. He's just incredible but to single cover him is basically, IIBHO, to hand IC the win. Both Vito and Gladney are excellent and Ice believes you can't stop them both. At least try and stop the one who can completely dominate a game.
-Make IC run the ball as much as possible. If the Union secondary can hold IC's air O to no more than two/three scores (which will be super ****ing hard to say the least) and force IC to run the ball that will play into the Dutchmen's strength on D. If this happens and IC still wins than they certainly deserve to.
-Tight special teams and no more than 1 turnover. Giving the ball to Joe for free more than once will mean trouble and put too much pressure on the Union O.
-Irabor and Ferreirra will need to run wild. The Union Oline can win this game for Union. Sustained drives running the ball and opening up the passing game will only benefit Union's strong pass O.
-Big day for Ross and Beal. Go to Ross until they force you not to. Don't play the decoy game...to beat the best team in the LL Union will need it's best receiver, arguably the second best receiver in the league, to get touches and or draw coverage and PI penalties. Beal is excellent, use him as well once Ross opens up space.
-Union will also need to hope Joe G has an off day.

For IC:
-Run their offense and pass to Gladney and Vito at will. After the first half of Union's game against SLU IB thinks this may be possible. U adjusted in teh second half and went from giving up over 300 in the air to just 40...The secondary will need to do the latter to give the Dutchmen any chance to win. Yes this is the challenge of all cahllenges for the Union secondary this season. This is why you play.
-Run the ball effectively here and there. If IC can run the ball...for-****ing-get it. Union's D must make IC completely one dimensional and even that may not work.
-No turnovers. Union's O can score fast and has many really excellent weapons. The less they receive hand outs the more IC will have time to score...simple **** here.
-Take Andre Ross Jr. out of the game (not literally). Frustrate him and make Bellamy force plays to him. Get physical with him and double him up. Force the ball on the ground and to Beal (which can also most certainly be dangerous).
-Get very physical with the Union skill players like Irabor, Ross, and Beal. They need to hear footsteps before even moving.

*All this means nothing to IB unless Union takes care of business against Buffalo State. Union loses next week it takes a **** load of luster out of this game for IB and in IBHO the league as a whole. You lose to Buff State (no offense meant here) you are not winning for the first time at Butterfield the nest week.

IB will have prediction the day before the game.

[Jonny Utah]

Good stuff ice bear.

Although I don't think union or anyone can double gladney.  They just have too many other options in their RPO offense.  I'm not going to say they have to get lucky, but Gladney has had so many one handed catches/back shoulder plays this year it almost like their "luck" is going to run out at some point.  And I hate to use that word "luck" because it's talent that's what making these plays happen but even with the talent factor many of these plays seem like high risk/low reward passes but ithaca continues to convert on them.

Also forgot about the two opponents this week which like you said we really shouldn't look past.  It will be interesting to see how Union does against Buffalo states #7 as he is very similar to gladney and I'm not afraid to call them even.  #7 doesn't seem to have the size but he is probably the second best WR in the LL after Gladney

[Oline89]

The experience that Gladney and Germ bring to the table can't be over stated.  Twice in the Hobart game there was a broken play (I think once there was a defensive encroachment call), Gladney instantly broke deep on a Go Route, and without hesitation Germ hauled it downfield.  Two catches by Gladney were made by the thickness of the grass in the endzone at Butterfield.  On any turf field he would have been out of bounds......

[Bengalsrule]

*All this means nothing to IB unless Union takes care of business against Buffalo State. Union loses next week it takes a **** load of luster out of this game for IB and in IBHO the league as a whole. You lose to Buff State (no offense meant here) you are not winning for the first time at Butterfield the nest week.

No offense taken from this Bengal loyalists.  However beware, my BENGALS got thier first taste of victory last week.  Beware!

GO BENGALS!

[Bartman]

*All this means nothing to IB unless Union takes care of business against Buffalo State. Union loses next week it takes a **** load of luster out of this game for IB and in IBHO the league as a whole. You lose to Buff State (no offense meant here) you are not winning for the first time at Butterfield the nest week.

No offense taken from this Bengal loyalists.  However beware, my BENGALS got thier first taste of victory last week.  Beware!

GO BENGALS!

Bengalsrule....Looking forward to Hobart v. Bengals on Senior day on 11/9 at the Boz

[Bartman]

So now that I have an off week , thought I would look at how Gladney/ Germinerio(GG) compare to Sweeney/Shed(SS) .........Gladney/Germinerio of 2019(projected to 11 game schedule) vs. Shed/Sweeney of 2016(11 games):


          QB                           Yards                      Ints                     TDs

Sweeney(2016)                  3,436                       6                          36

Germinerio(2019)               3,483*(1900)          5.5*(3)                  38.5*(21)

        WR

Shed(2016)                         1284                                                    17

Gladney(2019)                    1285*(701)                                          20*(11)     

* Pro rata of 6 games projected to 11 games for comparison

Well, these All American Connections look pretty close when you project the IC combo for 11 games( Hobart ended the 2016 season by losing to Mount Union at the Boz 38-24 in the playoffs)

Question......Which combo will have the best stats(average per game will be used if GG go beyond 11 games) when The Germ and Gladney finish the 2019 season?                     

[Jonny Utah]

So now that I have an off week , thought I would look at how Gladney/ Germinerio(GG) compare to Sweeney/Shed(SS) .........Gladney/Germinerio of 2019(projected to 11 game schedule) vs. Shed/Sweeney of 2016(11 games):


          QB                           Yards                      Ints                     TDs

Sweeney(2016)                  3,436                       6                          36

Germinerio(2019)               3,483*(1900)          5.5*(3)                  38.5*(21)

        WR

Shed(2016)                         1284                                                    17

Gladney(2019)                    1285*(701)                                          20*(11)     

* Pro rata of 6 games projected to 11 games for comparison

Well, these All American Connections look pretty close when you project the IC combo for 11 games( Hobart ended the 2016 season by losing to Mount Union at the Boz 38-24 in the playoffs)

Question......Which combo will have the best stats(average per game will be used if GG go beyond 11 games) when The Germ and Gladney finish the 2019 season?                     

Interesting thing about Joe G. Is that a lot of his passes are after almost after being sacked or some other random event.  Sweeney's passes were more Tom Brady like if that makes sense.  Joe G just always looks like he is under pressure on a lot of these throws for whatever that's worth.

Joe G and Gladney also have the benefit of running a no huddle tempo offense that gets as many plays as possible resulting in more production.  On the other hand they've only played in 1 game so far where they played the entire game.  But that's consistent with many other players in similar situations.

[south hill observer]

In four of six games Joe G. and Gladney have only played 2 1/2 quarters of football. I think if they played entire game stats would look differrent.

[tony/troy]

Anyone know what's up with the New York Bowl thing? Still around or gone???

Despite sizable defections from the ECAC membership roll and competition from at least five conference/region specific bowls (NY would make at least six), it does appear that the ECAC will still try to come up with at least six interested teams (maybe eight) that are still members. Does anyone know if they are having any luck or have they outlived their usefulness as far as football goes?

[Oline89]

Anyone know what's up with the New York Bowl thing? Still around or gone???

Despite sizable defections from the ECAC membership roll and competition from at least five conference/region specific bowls (NY would make at least six), it does appear that the ECAC will still try to come up with at least six interested teams (maybe eight) that are still members. Does anyone know if they are having any luck or have they outlived their usefulness as far as football goes?

I sure hope that the NY Bowl makes a resurgence.  I know the general acceptance of the concept on the LL and E8 boards has been lukewarm.  If you subtract out Ithaca and Cortland (Cortica is essentially a Bowl game), playing a post season game is great for morale, competition and nice way to end the year for any other team.  Our conferences are so competitive, that the 2-4 place teams are only fractionally behind the winner that gets the Pool A bid  to the NCAA's.  The Centennial Conference plays one every year, and their coaches definitely use it as a recruiting tool.  We constantly hear on D3 podcasts that when teams play deeper into playoffs it builds for the following season. 

[Ithaca798891]

Alright, I came back. I admittedly threw a virtual hissy-fit, took my ball and went home. But, saner heads eventually prevailed. K+'s will be distributed when I get to 200 posts

Anyway, onto the football. Regarding IC-Hobart, I have several thoughts:

1. That was an incredibly close 34-0 game. No snark at all. If IC doesn't convert that 3rd and 10 at the end of the 1st half deep in their own end, we could be looking at a totally different game. (more on this in a second)
2. Complaining about the referees is sometimes justified, but complaining about holding is pretty much just always sour grapes. As we've seen in the NFL, if referees actually called all the holds they saw, everyone would hate it. Frankly, I thought the officials weren't great on PI, and IC benefited from some plays I'd let go. But holding? That stuff is just silly.

I didn't get a good view of the targeting call, so I have no idea if it was justified or not.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9/24/20881497/offensive-holding-penalties-increase

3. As it relates to point #1, by a "totally different" game, I mean a 17-6 type game, not an actual Hobart win. All season long, we've seen Ithaca's pass defense struggle, but Hobart could not get a thing going in the passing game. They simply could not connect on throws. I don't see, at all, how they could hang 41 on RPI

4. I was disappointed in the extracurricular stuff. A staggering amount of personal fouls and unsportsmanlike conduct calls.

[Oline89]

Alright, I came back. I admittedly threw a virtual hissy-fit, took my ball and went home. But, saner heads eventually prevailed. K+'s will be distributed when I get to 200 posts

Anyway, onto the football. Regarding IC-Hobart, I have several thoughts:

1. That was an incredibly close 34-0 game. No snark at all. If IC doesn't convert that 3rd and 10 at the end of the 1st half deep in their own end, we could be looking at a totally different game. (more on this in a second)
2. Complaining about the referees is sometimes justified, but complaining about holding is pretty much just always sour grapes. As we've seen in the NFL, if referees actually called all the holds they saw, everyone would hate it. Frankly, I thought the officials weren't great on PI, and IC benefited from some plays I'd let go. But holding? That stuff is just silly.

I didn't get a good view of the targeting call, so I have no idea if it was justified or not.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9/24/20881497/offensive-holding-penalties-increase

3. As it relates to point #1, by a "totally different" game, I mean a 17-6 type game, not an actual Hobart win. All season long, we've seen Ithaca's pass defense struggle, but Hobart could not get a thing going in the passing game. They simply could not connect on throws. I don't see, at all, how they could hang 41 on RPI

4. I was disappointed in the extracurricular stuff. A staggering amount of personal fouls and unsportsmanlike conduct calls.

I am willing to concede the targeting call at this point, on the field it was a loud, violent hit and justified a flag under today's rules.  It did look like the the Hobart player "launched" himself, and probably, worst of all, he didn't wrap his arms and made the hit with his shoulder/forearm only.  Regarding the holding, wrong wrong wrong.  There are legal ways to block, even modified/acceptable ways, hands no longer have to be inside the numbers, hooking arms now gets over looked.  However, grabbing jerseys and both hands holding onto shoulder pads can't be allowed, especially if it affects the play.  I agree that a few more calls wouldn't have affected the outcome, it was IC's day. Both coaches and the refs needed to do better controlling the extracurricular BS.

[Oline89]

Alright, I came back. I admittedly threw a virtual hissy-fit, took my ball and went home. But, saner heads eventually prevailed. K+'s will be distributed when I get to 200 posts

BTW, there has been a precedent of guys "coming back" who got there +K status  re-started early.....maybe Pat is feeling benevolent

[Ithaca798891]

Onto bigger picture items:

1. IC's ranking: I think we're all aware that undefeated teams in the East can float up the rankings and not be a serious Stagg contender.

Cortland was 7th in the country in 2008, and a 41-14 loss to Mount was looming.
Hobart was 7th in the country in 2012 and a 47-7 loss to St. Thomas awaited them.
Hobart was 8th in the country in 2013 and they couldn't even get out of the East, as Fisher beat them 27-6 at home
Hobart was 9th in the country in 2014 and lost 41-13 points to Wesley

So it's not like there's no precedent for this to happen with IC. Even if the Bombers' ultimate fate is a monkeystomp by some team from the Midwest, it doesn't make their ranking unjustified, any more than Hobart getting waxed in their playoff losses made theirs unjustified.

There's a reason there's zero parity in this division, and it's because the top teams from other regions almost never lose, and they certainly don't do it to teams from Upstate NY. Fisher couldn't beat them back in '06-'07. Hobart couldn't do it from '12-'14. Cortland couldn't do it in '08. Brockport couldn't beat them in '17. If IC does it this year, we'll all be justifiably stunned. But not doing it is hardly some major flaw.

2. Will Gladney— So is "He's not better than Shed" supposed to be like, an insult? Because I'm pretty sure Shed was a first-team All-American, who has bounced around some CFL/AAF rosters since leaving Hobart. Is that not like, the pinnacle for 99.9999% of D-III players? Would that not be a unbelievably successful outcome for Gladney?

[Pat Coleman]

Definitely feeling benevolent, but I am traveling this week and don't have a lot of my stuff with me.