FB: Liberty League

[Machiavelli]

Back to Cortaca:

The only reason you would start Nabi over Joe G is if Joe did something totally off base in terms of his playing style the last two weeks, or some other off the field reason or situation where his attitude is a detriment to the team.  We have zero evidence of the latter, and in terms of his actual QB play the last two weeks I don't fault him either.  From my own amateur HS coaching eye, Union and RPI had extra defensive passing help, and gave Joe G. an area of the field that in my mind doesn't give you a whole lot of success (flat).  Union and RPI (and a few other teams which is a concern that people are overlooking) were able to get a good pass rush as well.  Ithaca has a predictable run game and when you combine the two/three (weak pass blocking, weak run game/scheme which forces you to throw into extra dback sets), you are bound to fail against teams that are able to match up with you.  Joe G. cannot control his oline blocking, he doesn't call the plays, and he doesn't design the offensive scheme.  It is tough to tell on my end how many of Ithaca's plays are RPO's, as their style is different than most standard RPO teams although again, I'm just an amateur HS coach.

I brought up the question of Nabi playing, to see when a coach decides to start looking to next year.  The answer should probably be never, win today for today's team.  I didn't see any of IC/RPI game, but looking at the Stats, it looks like Germ played fairly well (a couple of INT's is to be expected when you throw so much).  We were discussing the idea of Germ heading to the NFL next  year, I think the best prospect on the team is Gladney, what are the thought's on the board....

It's one thing if you're sitting at the final stretch of a season and have only a few wins. But at 7-2 and going into your major rivalry game, you play your best guys. No way would I be looking towards next season. That's a disservice to the seniors going into Cortaca, IMO.

After thinking about this in a little more detail, the comment above is spot on. Trying to relate this to the RPI/Union game, even this week, RPI playing a back up just to think towards next year and give out a participation trophy, and not really focus on the big rivalry game, would be an absolute joke and a disaster. Unless there's some issue outside of actual football, this should not and will not happen unless, like I said, the game turns lopsided one way or the other.

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear would like to see Germinerio lead Ithaca to a big win this weekend and then hand the reins over to a very mature Walid Nabi for next year. That is unless a Freshman or the third stringer beats Nabi out for the job next year. Ice says that's ultimately what it comes down to right? Putting the best players on the field.

Ice Bear, who was/is an admitted critic of the whole Germinerio deal, sees no reason whatsoever to not start Joe at Metlife. Ice agrees with much of what has been said thus far. This is not only a HUGE rivalry game but one that may break the all time D3 record for attendance (If the shoes game doesn't  ). Our beloved D3 will be on arguably it's largest stage ever. Love him or hate him Ice says that Germinerio has certainly earned Ice's respect as a competitor through his passionate play this season. Kid is a D3 field general, end of story.

[Jonny Utah]

FWIW under Nabi and any backup during his injury, Ithaca lost a total of two league games in two years. I think that's getting lost in the shuffle. Last year a backup lost the game to RPI by 1.  This year, when RPI is clearly a lesser version of its 2018 selves, RPI won by 26.

RPI offense vs IC:
2018: 162 yards of offense, 9 FD, 3.2 YPP
2019: 345 yards of offense, 20 FD, 5.6 YPP

Union offense vs IC:
2018: 185 yards of offense, 10 FD, 2.9 YPP
2019: 417 yards of offense, 23 FD, 5.5 YPP

Looking back, many of the Ithica posters have been saying that the IC defense hasn't been the same as last year, and now here are the numbers to prove it. Having seen first hand how impressive IC's defense was last year, I wasn't ready to believe the drop this year. But those are some pretty dramatic differences vs. 2018.

Have to look at these in context. TOP numbers mentioned above are a big reason the defense has struggled of late. They are on the field way longer than last season, which is in part to the offensive play calling / turnover issues.

Wait a second here.  TOP numbers are an effect of a defense that has struggled, not the other way around.  They are on the field longer than last season in part because Ithaca has broken their own record book in many offensive categories.  Tell me what the difference is between the offense this year and last year ITH?  To me it appears they are running the same system.  Same formations, same tempo, same plays, same concepts, etc. 

Again, what are you hinting at here?  That the offense scores too much and that the defense can't handle the extra time they are on the field? 

Ithaca Offense:
2018: 23 PPG, 111 rush per game 3.1 yd ave, 241 yds per game passing  TOP: Ithaca 30
2019  40 PPG, 119 rush per game 3.9 yd ave, 335 yds per game passing   TOP: Ithaca 28

Ithaca Defense:
2018: 12 PPG, 259 total yards per game,65   rush per game, 2.1 yd ave, 193 yds per game passing TOP: 29
2019: 19 PPG, 356 total yards per game, 121 rush per game, 3.5 yd ave, 235 yds per game passing TOP: 31

[RolandWest]

Nabi

2018 vs. Cortland:
13-21 209yds 2TDs 1INT 8 Rush Yds.

2017 vs. Cortland:
27-37 329yds 6TDs 1INT 18 Rush Yds.

Total: 40-58 538yds 8TDs 2INTs 26 Rush Yds.

—-

Germinerio

2018 vs. Cortland:
31-50 307yds 2TDs 2INTs 25 Rush Yds.

2017 vs. Cortland:
15-21 265yds 3TDs 1INT 95 Rush Yds. 3 Rush TDs

Total: 46-71 572yds 5TDs 3INTs 120 Rush Yds. 3 Rush TDs

I'm not sure how relevant stats against a common opponent are when you're talking about different teams over different years. Every year (and surrounding cast) is a different beast.  When you add in how a two game sample size isn't that statistically relevant, this argument feels pretty weak. Especially when you compare season long stats of Nabi last year and Germinerio this year.

Nabi featuring a worse TD pass, yards per game, TD/INT ratio,  YPA, completion percentage, QB rating.  In addition while Germinerio hasn't been a force on the ground like he was at Brockport, he easily outpaces Nabi in 2018 in that arena as well.

  It bears mentioning that Germinerio will likely finish with a sizable number more passing attempts than Nabi in 2018, so that evens out the counting stats to an extent, but if Nabi was a better player the efficiency and turnover number gap would not be as high. 

Nabi has played well against Cortland in the past, but if he was the best man at the position he would've been playing this year.  I know you and Pops Germinerio have an acrimonious relationship, but insisting they should play Nabi based on a scant sample size in different scenarios feels like a stretch. 

[Jonny Utah]

Back to Cortaca:

The only reason you would start Nabi over Joe G is if Joe did something totally off base in terms of his playing style the last two weeks, or some other off the field reason or situation where his attitude is a detriment to the team.  We have zero evidence of the latter, and in terms of his actual QB play the last two weeks I don't fault him either.  From my own amateur HS coaching eye, Union and RPI had extra defensive passing help, and gave Joe G. an area of the field that in my mind doesn't give you a whole lot of success (flat).  Union and RPI (and a few other teams which is a concern that people are overlooking) were able to get a good pass rush as well.  Ithaca has a predictable run game and when you combine the two/three (weak pass blocking, weak run game/scheme which forces you to throw into extra dback sets), you are bound to fail against teams that are able to match up with you.  Joe G. cannot control his oline blocking, he doesn't call the plays, and he doesn't design the offensive scheme.  It is tough to tell on my end how many of Ithaca's plays are RPO's, as their style is different than most standard RPO teams although again, I'm just an amateur HS coach.

I brought up the question of Nabi playing, to see when a coach decides to start looking to next year.  The answer should probably be never, win today for today's team.  I didn't see any of IC/RPI game, but looking at the Stats, it looks like Germ played fairly well (a couple of INT's is to be expected when you throw so much).  We were discussing the idea of Germ heading to the NFL next  year, I think the best prospect on the team is Gladney, what are the thought's on the board....

It's one thing if you're sitting at the final stretch of a season and have only a few wins. But at 7-2 and going into your major rivalry game, you play your best guys. No way would I be looking towards next season. That's a disservice to the seniors going into Cortaca, IMO.

100%  Imagine if you start Nabi and you lose?  How the hell do you explain that?  Joe has been their QB all year and because he loses two games you go back to the guy who won the past two years?  Imagine what would do to the morale of the team?

This is insane talk.  Unless Joe has sabotaged the coaches game plan the past two weeks or is being a problem in other ways, you start Joe G.  Why are we even discussing this?

[Frank Rossi]

Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

[Frank Rossi]

Imagine if you start Joe G this season and lose.  I mean the standard has already been set here.  I'm not sure why suddenly this matters.

[Frank Rossi]

Couple final thoughts:

The Ithaca team absolutely loves Nabi for how he's handled this situation this year.  He gave up a year of eligibility to stay on that team despite some of the things we chronicled on ITH this season in terms of how the news got delivered, etc.  He didn't have to stay with that team.  He may leave that team after this year based on how things have gone.  When a player did what he did this year unselfishly, and gave up the chance to QB elsewhere for two years, you don't look at him as if he's a pariah.  You look at him as a team player, through and through.  Other coaches (MULTIPLE) have said to me that they couldn't do what he's done this season — but they have the utmost in admiration for how he's conducted himself.

For anyone to come on here and suggest that starting him Saturday against a team which he's beaten twice — in a major rivalry game — would be a blow to a team's morale hasn't been around college football nearly enough, especially in Division 3.  And if you're suggesting that he might be back next year under current circumstances, I'd suggest you're off your rocker unless something changes here.  My feeling is starting him Saturday would be part of those "changes" that could affect things.

Did Luke Poorman do something to cede the QB position back to Jase Hammack in Belton?  No.  This does happen, and even at programs better than Ithaca.  Sometimes you make a change to shake things up or based on "performance in practice the week leading to the game."  But in Ithaca's case, it's actually something that could work to propel the team to a win after a back-to-back letdown scenario.  Maybe Nabi starts and loses.  Maybe Joe G starts and wins.  Maybe the opposite happens in either case.  Welcome to football, folks.  But to suggest a "blow to team morale" by starting Nabi is crazy talk.

[Jonny Utah]

Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

I could do the same for Tom Brady playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami vs the Bills/Jets quarterbacks for the same years.  I'm trusting the coaches who watch 10,000 hours of film and coach another 1,000 hours of practice with this decision 

As for the Union drives, I'm not gonna let you spin this one.  You can explain or spin TOP stats in about 25 ways.  Union was able to convert on 8 of its 15 3rd downs, that was it's second highest 3rd down conversion all year (They were 5/8 in week one vs. Westfield for a 63% rate).

When you convert on third downs, your keep the ball longer and your TOP reflects that.  Union also played with a lead and maybe they used the clock more (and RPI obviously did).

Do you really think if they start Joe G and lose anyone will question the decision to play him bases on 2017 and 2018 games with a different QB?

[Frank Rossi]

Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

I could do the same for Tom Brady playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami vs the Bills/Jets quarterbacks for the same years.  I'm trusting the coaches who watch 10,000 hours of film and coach another 1,000 hours of practice with this decision 

As for the Union drives, I'm not gonna let you spin this one.  You can explain or spin TOP stats in about 25 ways.  Union was able to convert on 8 of its 15 3rd downs, that was it's second highest 3rd down conversion all year (They were 5/8 in week one vs. Westfield for a 63% rate).

When you convert on third downs, your keep the ball longer and your TOP reflects that.  Union also played with a lead and maybe they used the clock more (and RPI obviously did).

Do you really think if they start Joe G and lose anyone will question the decision to play him bases on 2017 and 2018 games with a different QB?

Here, allow me to not spin it... Ithaca's drive TOPs in that game...

1:09
1:24
2:28
1:28
6:28
0:47
2:35
0:57
1:50
0:44
1:24
1:37

[Jonny Utah]

Couple final thoughts:

The Ithaca team absolutely loves Nabi for how he's handled this situation this year.  He gave up a year of eligibility to stay on that team despite some of the things we chronicled on ITH this season in terms of how the news got delivered, etc.  He didn't have to stay with that team.  He may leave that team after this year based on how things have gone.  When a player did what he did this year unselfishly, and gave up the chance to QB elsewhere for two years, you don't look at him as if he's a pariah.  You look at him as a team player, through and through.  Other coaches (MULTIPLE) have said to me that they couldn't do what he's done this season — but they have the utmost in admiration for how he's conducted himself.

For anyone to come on here and suggest that starting him Saturday against a team which he's beaten twice — in a major rivalry game — would be a blow to a team's morale hasn't been around college football nearly enough, especially in Division 3.  And if you're suggesting that he might be back next year under current circumstances, I'd suggest you're off your rocker unless something changes here.  My feeling is starting him Saturday would be part of those "changes" that could affect things.

Did Luke Poorman do something to cede the QB position back to Jase Hammack in Belton?  No.  This does happen, and even at programs better than Ithaca.  Sometimes you make a change to shake things up or based on "performance in practice the week leading to the game."  But in Ithaca's case, it's actually something that could work to propel the team to a win after a back-to-back letdown scenario.  Maybe Nabi starts and loses.  Maybe Joe G starts and wins.  Maybe the opposite happens in either case.  Welcome to football, folks. But to suggest a "blow to team morale" by starting Nabi is crazy talk.

It most certainly is not crazy talk.  99.99999999% of this issue is who is the better quarterback.  Who can make the throws, who makes the right decision, who can scramble, who has the leadership to win, etc.

If Swanstrom came out and started Nabi for any other reason that what is listed above, then it most certainly can be looked at as a blow to team morale if they lose and some of Nabi's throws were part of that reason. 

I cited the last two years Ithaca stats below.  They should count about 10X more than Nabi's/Joe Gs stats the past two years (in one game)

[Frank Rossi]

Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

I could do the same for Tom Brady playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami vs the Bills/Jets quarterbacks for the same years.  I'm trusting the coaches who watch 10,000 hours of film and coach another 1,000 hours of practice with this decision 

As for the Union drives, I'm not gonna let you spin this one.  You can explain or spin TOP stats in about 25 ways.  Union was able to convert on 8 of its 15 3rd downs, that was it's second highest 3rd down conversion all year (They were 5/8 in week one vs. Westfield for a 63% rate).

When you convert on third downs, your keep the ball longer and your TOP reflects that.  Union also played with a lead and maybe they used the clock more (and RPI obviously did).

Do you really think if they start Joe G and lose anyone will question the decision to play him bases on 2017 and 2018 games with a different QB?

Here, allow me to not spin it... Ithaca's drive TOPs in that game...

1:09
1:24
2:28
1:28
6:28
0:47
2:35
0:57
1:50
0:44
1:24
1:37

Didn't get much better vs. RPI...

2:31
0:06
1:48
4:53
1:25
0:26
0:01 (Half)
3:06
5:01
1:30
1:57
1:29

[Machiavelli]

JU, run for the Hills. It's like arguing with a drunk.

[Jonny Utah]

Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

I could do the same for Tom Brady playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami vs the Bills/Jets quarterbacks for the same years.  I'm trusting the coaches who watch 10,000 hours of film and coach another 1,000 hours of practice with this decision 

As for the Union drives, I'm not gonna let you spin this one.  You can explain or spin TOP stats in about 25 ways.  Union was able to convert on 8 of its 15 3rd downs, that was it's second highest 3rd down conversion all year (They were 5/8 in week one vs. Westfield for a 63% rate).

When you convert on third downs, your keep the ball longer and your TOP reflects that.  Union also played with a lead and maybe they used the clock more (and RPI obviously did).

Do you really think if they start Joe G and lose anyone will question the decision to play him bases on 2017 and 2018 games with a different QB?

Here, allow me to not spin it... Ithaca's drive TOPs in that game...

1:09
1:24
2:28
1:28
6:28
0:47
2:35
0:57
1:50
0:44
1:24
1:37

Didn't get much better vs. RPI...

2:31
0:06
1:48
4:53
1:25
0:26
0:01 (Half)
3:06
5:01
1:30
1:57
1:29

St. Lawrence and Rochester was pretty crappy too:

1:51
0:05
1:58
5:12
1:13
1:39
3:36
0:00
1:27

Roch:
1:04
5:33
1:45
1:39
0:12
1:37
0:00
0:51

Do we really hate Joe G. that much that we are arguing time of possession and games from 2017 where he played on a different team?

Again, insanity.

[Machiavelli]

And FYI, anyone who suggest starting a back up because he's been a good team player all year clearly has never played a team sport in their life either. This isn't Rudy.