FB: Liberty League

[Ithaca798891]

Last year, the Bombers' shut out Union. This year, they allowed 31 points.

Where should the finger pointing start? The quarterback, natch!

[Doid23]

I would be more worried about my recently trending swiss cheese defense.

This. With all the talk of QB's, RPI put up 21 on Ithica before they could blink. I do believe that it was a classic letdown game after the Union loss, but that's certainly a tough hole to dig out of.

[hazzben]

Personal opinions and beefs and issues aside. Ithaca would be nuts to start anyone under center except the guy who the coaches think gives them the best shot at a W. I don't know which one that is, but I'm also gonna bet Ithaca's coaches have 50 times more intel and insight into who that is than anyone posting here. My initial response was that you don't throw away a rivalry game at 7-2 to prepare for next year. They will play the guy who they think most likely to win it. Maybe they have to pull a Saban at halftime, but again, that would only be because they thought the switch made victory more probable.

Also, FWIW, in college football advanced analytics, TOP is considered a very dated metric with much less correlation to victory than other statistical measures.

[Bartman]

I would be more worried about my recently trending swiss cheese defense.

This. With all the talk of QB's, RPI put up 21 on Ithica before they could blink. I do believe that it was a classic letdown game after the Union loss, but that's certainly a tough hole to dig out of.

However, I just looked at the plays from the first half of the RPI game and if Swanstrom ever wanted to pull The Germ, it would have been at half time. I don't care what the defense did, the offense should have done something in the first half. ****, the Rochester Offense could have done as well, and that may be offending the Yellowjackets. It happens, hell Hobart was shutout by the same IC defense that tripped over themselves going backwards against RPI. Then Germinerio threw some great passes while scrambling against Hobart that were startlingly accurate . I'm thinking the good Ithaca shows up Saturday, but who knows?

[Doid23]

I would be more worried about my recently trending swiss cheese defense.

This. With all the talk of QB's, RPI put up 21 on Ithica before they could blink. I do believe that it was a classic letdown game after the Union loss, but that's certainly a tough hole to dig out of.

However, I just looked at the plays from the first half of the RPI game and if Swanstrom ever wanted to pull The Germ, it would have been at half time. I don't care what the defense did, the offense should have done something in the first half. ****, the Rochester Offense could have done as well, and that may be offending the Yellowjackets. It happens, hell Hobart was shutout by the same IC defense that tripped over themselves going backwards against RPI. Then Germinerio threw some great passes while scrambling against Hobart that were startlingly accurate . I'm thinking the good Ithaca shows up Saturday, but who knows?

Agreed, but I think the RPI game is somewhat of an outlier. I guess we'll find out on Saterday, because I don't think anyone will be flat for that game.

[Jonny Utah]

Personal opinions and beefs and issues aside. Ithaca would be nuts to start anyone under center except the guy who the coaches think gives them the best shot at a W. I don't know which one that is, but I'm also gonna bet Ithaca's coaches have 50 times more intel and insight into who that is than anyone posting here. My initial response was that you don't throw away a rivalry game at 7-2 to prepare for next year. They will play the guy who they think most likely to win it. Maybe they have to pull a Saban at halftime, but again, that would only be because they thought the switch made victory more probable.

Also, FWIW, in college football advanced analytics, TOP is considered a very dated metric with much less correlation to victory than other statistical measures.

Yep.  Thought about the Saban move at Alabama with Jalen/Tua.  I'm trusting Saban on this move.  Belichick did it with Brady and Bledsoe here in Boston 20 years ago.  There were a lot of Bledsoe fans who thought the move was crazy.  Funny story is that I was a steelers fan until Belichick made this move because I found myself arguing with Pats/Bledsoe fans that only the coaches knew who the better option was and I rooted for Brady ever since.

As for the TOP stat I'm with ya 100% as well. That number can't be analyzed in a vacuum.  It is what it is.  Team a and team b can run different offenses and the TOP reflect that. 

[Oline89]

JU, let me get this straight.  You were a Steelers fan for the 70s and 80s.  You then "became" a Pats fan in 2001.  Are you suddenly a long suffering Nats fan in 2019?? 

[Frank Rossi]

JU, for the umpteenth time, you're misrepresenting what ITH and I both have said about TOP.  It's a fact that defenses on the field longer are vulnerable to fatigue and issues later in the game.  They have to sub out players more, and in D3, your depth at those positions isn't the same depth as the NFL.  If your offense is scoring on quick drives, then it places the onus on the other offense to respond.  And as the score becomes imbalanced against inferior competition, the defenses don't show those ill effects nearly as much, especially when the second and third teams come in during the third quarter.  The issue is when you're playing a team of equal caliber or near equal caliber.  I believe Ithaca held the ball for 3 minutes in the third quarter vs. Union.  And while nobody scored in that quarter, suddenly, Irabor was able to get bigger chunks of yardage in the 4th.  Defensive linemen are the most vulnerable to this situation from what I've witnessed, as the OLine is able to open up gaps faster and better as this develops.  In the RPI game, the defense needed to stop the bleeding at 21-0, but they couldn't with any assistance from the offense; they were seemingly constantly on the field.

TOP isn't correlated to wins and losses.  But it's a number that can help show how the balance of the game could have affected the sides of the ball.  Quick drives that lead to no scoring are double whammies because the defense is taxed further and the other offense has an opportunity to one-up the team on the scoreboard.  And the number of empty quick drives in those challenging games was very high.  Joe G threw SIXTY times against Union.  He was at his best in 2017 when he ran the ball for nearly 100 yards in some games because it would stretch out the game and forced defenses to respect the pass more.  Before the Union game, someone said to me that they'd challenge Joe to throw the ball.  I said, no, they'd challenge him to run, and if he doesn't, they won't win.  Part of it was because over-reliance on the passing game can cause unintended consequences on both sides of the ball.

Finally, this whole notion that I have a bone to pick with Joe Jr. is wrong.  After the incident at Butterfield, I sent him a note apologizing for telling his father (after the third time he called me classless and a bully while I was trying to do my postgame work) to kiss my backside.  And I also told him how much I do respect him and his brother, John, as players and people.  His father deciding to confront me is whatever in my world — and I won't back down from someone doing that.  If security was present, I would've had them deal with it.  I reported it to the AD since I'm concerned he might do that to other folks, and it's not appropriate.  Joe Jr. is a great football player, but part of the progression in 2018 and 2019 is that what set him apart as a premiere quarterback was somewhat abandoned — the R in the RPO.  And watching the stats and the numbers tells me that he's not at his 2017 level of play.  I have the right to state that as a commentator, and I have a valid basis to make that statement since we followed him so closely over the last three seasons.  It was my understanding that he wanted to play somewhere that would give him more latitude to make offensive decisions.  But seeing him throw 60 times vs. Union (33 in the first half alone I believe) told me that day that he's trying too hard to get the ball down the field with his arm.  He would escape but then back out and still throw in that game more than he would have two years ago.  Did Union have a spy on him?  Sure.  But he could've beaten that spy more often than not.

My point is that when Ithaca plays these very good teams, they need to figure out how to rely on their run for multiple reasons.  If he's going to insist on uncorking the ball 60 times, then you're running a larger than necessary risk to lose games if he can't connect efficiently on those passes.  And that's what has made me shrug about how he's progressed of late — this hasn't been the best utilization of him, and I'm not sure if it's the system or his own desire to show his arm going on here.  That's my honest assessment; I have zero personal animus despite the incident from two weeks ago because, as folks had warned me for a couple years, that BS unfortunately comes with the territory.

[UfanBill]

Last year, the Bombers' shut out Union. This year, they allowed 31 points.

Where should the finger pointing start? The quarterback, natch!

I will say this.The blame for Ithaca's 24-0 shutout of Union last year should go on the quarterback...yeah...Union's quarterback. Will Bellamy had by far his worse game of the year. He threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 3 times. He was not ready to play and looked like a deer in the headlights. All credit to the Bombers D.
This year Bellamy was ready. He calmly led the Union offense. He threw 0 picks and was not sacked. My point is the quarterback often gets the credit and just as often gets the blame. Either way he's the one in the spotlight.

Joe G was the best player on the field against Union. His effort was undeniable. On that day, all credit to the Dutchmen D.

Ithaca should and will start Germinerio in the Cortaca. Is he going to sputter with frustration or is he going to go out with glory. Don't know, actually don't care. I'll be focused on "The Shoes". 

[Frank Rossi]

UFanBill, I'd politely disagree.  I was more impressed with Andrew Vito that day.  He stretched a short gain into an impossible long TD and kept the game close twice with his TD receptions as Gladney got pretty much doubled throughout.  If Vito didn't step up, that score would've been more lopsided.

[Machiavelli]

JU, let me get this straight.  You were a Steelers fan for the 70s and 80s.  You then "became" a Pats fan in 2001.  Are you suddenly a long suffering Nats fan in 2019?? 

I was immediately thinking something similar upon reading JU's post. He can not be trusted being a Steelers fan! But then, it made me think....Here's my story...

I grew up a long suffering Red Sox and Pats fan. Not a lot to often cheer for. But did anyway. Suffered through years of disappointment. Since the Sox almost never made the postseason, I latched on to the Braves as my '2nd team'. A lot of kids my age in the Boston area had '2nd teams'.

With the Pats, they were rarely on TV cause they never sold out. So I listened on the radio most Sundays. I still love listening to the games because of that. It's sentimental. Even without Gino Capelleti and Gil Santos. But I was also a huge Cowboys fan. Airman is still my second favorite QB ever. Many of my friends were 49ers fans, some Steelers fans, Raiders fans, even Jets fans. Plus a lot of kids here grew up Giants fans cause our Dads or Grand Dads grew up Giants fans before there was a Patriots.

Maybe just maybe, JU has ties to Pitt or just liked their unis, or found a Starter jacket at the flea market. But back then, it was normal to have a 2nd team.

Now if JU truly wasn't a Pats fan at all, he's a communist and can't be trusted.

[Machiavelli]

Hmmmm. I just read something awfully convenient to fit someone's narrative. How surprising!

[Jonny Utah]

JU, for the umpteenth time, you're misrepresenting what ITH and I both have said about TOP.  It's a fact that defenses on the field longer are vulnerable to fatigue and issues later in the game.  They have to sub out players more, and in D3, your depth at those positions isn't the same depth as the NFL.  If your offense is scoring on quick drives, then it places the onus on the other offense to respond.  And as the score becomes imbalanced against inferior competition, the defenses don't show those ill effects nearly as much, especially when the second and third teams come in during the third quarter.  The issue is when you're playing a team of equal caliber or near equal caliber.  I believe Ithaca held the ball for 3 minutes in the third quarter vs. Union.  And while nobody scored in that quarter, suddenly, Irabor was able to get bigger chunks of yardage in the 4th.  Defensive linemen are the most vulnerable to this situation from what I've witnessed, as the OLine is able to open up gaps faster and better as this develops.  In the RPI game, the defense needed to stop the bleeding at 21-0, but they couldn't with any assistance from the offense; they were seemingly constantly on the field.

TOP isn't correlated to wins and losses.  But it's a number that can help show how the balance of the game could have affected the sides of the ball.  Quick drives that lead to no scoring are double whammies because the defense is taxed further and the other offense has an opportunity to one-up the team on the scoreboard.  And the number of empty quick drives in those challenging games was very high.  Joe G threw SIXTY times against Union.  He was at his best in 2017 when he ran the ball for nearly 100 yards in some games because it would stretch out the game and forced defenses to respect the pass more.  Before the Union game, someone said to me that they'd challenge Joe to throw the ball.  I said, no, they'd challenge him to run, and if he doesn't, they won't win.  Part of it was because over-reliance on the passing game can cause unintended consequences on both sides of the ball.

Finally, this whole notion that I have a bone to pick with Joe Jr. is wrong.  After the incident at Butterfield, I sent him a note apologizing for telling his father (after the third time he called me classless and a bully while I was trying to do my postgame work) to kiss my backside.  And I also told him how much I do respect him and his brother, John, as players and people.  His father deciding to confront me is whatever in my world — and I won't back down from someone doing that.  If security was present, I would've had them deal with it.  I reported it to the AD since I'm concerned he might do that to other folks, and it's not appropriate.  Joe Jr. is a great football player, but part of the progression in 2018 and 2019 is that what set him apart as a premiere quarterback was somewhat abandoned — the R in the RPO.  And watching the stats and the numbers tells me that he's not at his 2017 level of play.  I have the right to state that as a commentator, and I have a valid basis to make that statement since we followed him so closely over the last three seasons.  It was my understanding that he wanted to play somewhere that would give him more latitude to make offensive decisions.  But seeing him throw 60 times vs. Union (33 in the first half alone I believe) told me that day that he's trying too hard to get the ball down the field with his arm.  He would escape but then back out and still throw in that game more than he would have two years ago.  Did Union have a spy on him?  Sure.  But he could've beaten that spy more often than not.

My point is that when Ithaca plays these very good teams, they need to figure out how to rely on their run for multiple reasons.  If he's going to insist on uncorking the ball 60 times, then you're running a larger than necessary risk to lose games if he can't connect efficiently on those passes.  And that's what has made me shrug about how he's progressed of late — this hasn't been the best utilization of him, and I'm not sure if it's the system or his own desire to show his arm going on here.  That's my honest assessment; I have zero personal animus despite the incident from two weeks ago because, as folks had warned me for a couple years, that BS unfortunately comes with the territory.

No, it started when ITH said that the Ithaca fundamental philosophy of offense and defense changed (I asked him how and didn't get a response as they pretty much run the exact same offense and defense they have been the last three years) and then ITH said "TOP numbers mentioned above are a big reason the defense has struggled of late". I think there may just be a semantical issue.  I pointed out that if a teams offense or defense struggles, the TOP might reflect that if the team in question throws the ball a lot and the other team stalls the clock or has a lead. Then I pointed out numbers in other games and they don't look much different.  Hell in t SLU game 10 minutes of Ithaca's TOP game on the last two drives in the 4th quarter! 

I'm not trying to start a fight, I agree with a lot of what you say there regarding how the RPI and union games affected TOP numbers.  But without watching the game those numbers are real useless, and I pointed out their total TOP numbers from 2018 to 2019 wheee there are some HUGE discrepancies in offensive and defensive numbers but not on TOP.  Maybe I'm missing something but TOP isn't a major factor in Ithaca's play the past two years, their offense and defense have been though.  And it is fair to say they were out coached in the Union and RPI games. 

Ok I'm typing on my phone which is tough but I'll be sending out a press release soon about my new podcast.  First guest might be Holladawg but that is still in the works.  Lost of TOP talk first episode as well.  Stay tuned.

[Jonny Utah]

JU, let me get this straight.  You were a Steelers fan for the 70s and 80s.  You then "became" a Pats fan in 2001.  Are you suddenly a long suffering Nats fan in 2019?? 

Ya hard to explain.  Remember watching my first Steelers game around 1982.  Loved them.  Rooted for them hard through college.  When the Brady/Bledsoe debate came out in 2001, I felt I had some extra knowledge based on what I saw in college in terms of how coaches evaluate talent.  So I rooted for Brady.  I honestly still rooted for the Steelers even in 2001 when the Patriots beat them and by this time I'm basically an adult and didn't "root" for teams like I did when I was a kid. Don't remember exactly when i switched over but I also missed out on two superbowl victories by the Steelers.  Never considered myself a bandwagoner but I also rooted for the pats in '85 and '96.  I feel nothing for the Steelers now.

[Bartman]

As much as I'd like to extend the TOP discussion, I think I will put out the final picks of the LL season:
(35-10 pick record, and LL is 16-11 in OOC games)

Hobart(Team DeWall)      48     Rochester(Team Martinovitch)         7         The battle of Hobart alum coaches is won by DeWall as the Yellowjackets future is in the hands of future recruits.

St Lawrence                   35      Buffalo State                                21         Grochot has another good game and the Larries end the season on a positive note. The Bengals show well and look to make noise in 2020.

Union                             38       RPI                                            24          The Shoes are worn by the Dutchmen as they come back from an early deficit as Bellamy and Irabor are cool under pressure and deliver an undefeated regular season(last one was 2005). From 0-10 to 10-0 in four years, impressive....now don't blow my pick

Ithaca                            45        Cortland                                     38          The Germ starts and wins the game on a Vito TD in the final 2 minutes after throwing a pick six only minutes earlier. Nabi waits for next year .               

           Union -NCAA
           Ithaca- ECAC Bowl home game
           Hobart- NYS Megabowl -travel to Cortland or Alfred