FB: Liberty League

[Machiavelli]

Agree with Ol' Bartman.  We have now had the pleasure of seeing the top 4 teams in person.  The teams are so equal in talent, that the only factor that comes in to play is Home Field advantage.  Maybe for the Shoes game, the 10 minute trip will not make a difference, but the 4-5 hour ride/possible overnight hotel stay definetly takes its toll. Good season for the Statesmen, razor sharp margin could have made it a great season.  RPI is an absolute set up for an upset this weekend at SLU, the hogs up front for the Larries are big, strong and talented.

TOTALLY agree there, but no one wants that to happen, right? All the eggs in the basket for the Douche-Shoes is where it's at. But then if RPI is able to win this week and knock off the Douchemen, it's probably the best situation for the league as a whole in post-season considerations.

[Ice Bear]

Seeing as how I'm one of "the geezers in front of the frat house" that Ice Bear refers to I feel obligated to comment and respond to both what Ice Bear said and Ned's questions.. Will Bellamy did not have a good day. His throws were off target but was it because of a undisclosed injury or the byproduct of a questionable game plan and play calling. The Hobart defense was playing 7 or 8 in the box to shut down the Dutchmen running game. Linebackers Bryan Aguilar and Emmett Forde were charging hard to the line of scrimmage which was limiting Union RB Ike Irabor to 2 or 3 yards per carry. When faced with passing situations the play call was too often an attempt to hit a big play rather than just move the chains. Union almost never throws to the TE which coupled with a screen, a draw or hitting a back out of the backfield would have been my preferred way to loosen up the Hobart D. Instead the bench sent in an extra offensive lineman and just kept running Irabor. Hey the game was won so what do I know.

As for the cannon. There have been a few instances this season when I haven't heard it. Maybe it's just because I'm getting used to it firing so often or maybe Bartman kidnapped the trigger man or the sacred weapon itself...And the program? It's virtual now! Is it Covid related, a cost cutting move or a I suspect laziness by the "Communications Director"(no more SID)? I'm old school too Ned. I want paper.

UfanBill,
     I took care of the trigger man and that damn cannon, I disguised myself as a CDC inspector and sent him off for a Covid test and then removed the firing mechanism while no one was watching...frankly I was surprised such a highly regarded Engineering and science department couldn't fix it in time for the game.
As far as the program, the good news is when you go to Butterfield they still have a printed program AND a media guide....you might want to pick one up unless it was only printed for homecoming.....and who was the evil scheduling genius that scheduled 2 away games for Hobart at BOTH Ithaca and Union's Homecoming/Reunion Weekends........Cruel very Cruel...Next year we'll have 2 Homecoming weekends to return the favor.....
   Having watched each one of the top four LL teams in person, I have a good sense for what will happen at Butterfield this week, and my old Dutchmen friends will not be happy.....more later in the week

Ice Bear says if he has learned and/or seen anything over time it is that using the results of games vs. common opponents doesn't always tell us the entire story, especially when trying to predict outcomes. With that said, he's also seen those results paint a somewhat accurate picture. Union controlled the entire game against SLU, winning easily. That certainly was not the case between Hobart and SLU...at Hobart.

Ice Bear can say one thing for sure, if his beloved Dutchmen decide to force the run as much as they did this past Saturday and not incorporate more of a passing game into the plan against IC they will leave Butterfield with their tail between their legs. What also worries Ice a bit is the poor play of the Union pass defense. Believe Ice as he gives Krewson a ton of credit for his game against U, however there were too many occasions where Pumpkinhead receivers were WAY TOO ****ing open. With a team like IC who throws maybe 60/40 in comparison to running this could spell trouble for Union. If these two areas Ice mentioned show up on Saturday Union will lose.

Ice Bear says maybe he is splitting hairs here, obviously Union is 8-0 with a huge win last week, yet their schedule before last week is not impressive. Ice is just calling it as he sees it and is certainly open to be challenged on these points. Saturday will tell us a ton...that is a ton for Saturday and probably nothing in regards to the upcoming Shoes game.

[Jonny Utah]

Seeing as how I'm one of "the geezers in front of the frat house" that Ice Bear refers to I feel obligated to comment and respond to both what Ice Bear said and Ned's questions.. Will Bellamy did not have a good day. His throws were off target but was it because of a undisclosed injury or the byproduct of a questionable game plan and play calling. The Hobart defense was playing 7 or 8 in the box to shut down the Dutchmen running game. Linebackers Bryan Aguilar and Emmett Forde were charging hard to the line of scrimmage which was limiting Union RB Ike Irabor to 2 or 3 yards per carry. When faced with passing situations the play call was too often an attempt to hit a big play rather than just move the chains. Union almost never throws to the TE which coupled with a screen, a draw or hitting a back out of the backfield would have been my preferred way to loosen up the Hobart D. Instead the bench sent in an extra offensive lineman and just kept running Irabor. Hey the game was won so what do I know.

As for the cannon. There have been a few instances this season when I haven't heard it. Maybe it's just because I'm getting used to it firing so often or maybe Bartman kidnapped the trigger man or the sacred weapon itself...And the program? It's virtual now! Is it Covid related, a cost cutting move or a I suspect laziness by the "Communications Director"(no more SID)? I'm old school too Ned. I want paper.

UfanBill,
     I took care of the trigger man and that damn cannon, I disguised myself as a CDC inspector and sent him off for a Covid test and then removed the firing mechanism while no one was watching...frankly I was surprised such a highly regarded Engineering and science department couldn't fix it in time for the game.
As far as the program, the good news is when you go to Butterfield they still have a printed program AND a media guide....you might want to pick one up unless it was only printed for homecoming.....and who was the evil scheduling genius that scheduled 2 away games for Hobart at BOTH Ithaca and Union's Homecoming/Reunion Weekends........Cruel very Cruel...Next year we'll have 2 Homecoming weekends to return the favor.....
   Having watched each one of the top four LL teams in person, I have a good sense for what will happen at Butterfield this week, and my old Dutchmen friends will not be happy.....more later in the week

Ice Bear says if he has learned and/or seen anything over time it is that using the results of games vs. common opponents doesn't always tell us the entire story, especially when trying to predict outcomes. With that said, he's also seen those results paint a somewhat accurate picture. Union controlled the entire game against SLU, winning easily. That certainly was not the case between Hobart and SLU...at Hobart.

Ice Bear can say one thing for sure, if his beloved Dutchmen decide to force the run as much as they did this past Saturday and not incorporate more of a passing game into the plan against IC they will leave Butterfield with their tail between their legs. What also worries Ice a bit is the poor play of the Union pass defense. Believe Ice as he gives Krewson a ton of credit for his game against U, however there were too many occasions where Pumpkinhead receivers were WAY TOO ****ing open. With a team like IC who throws maybe 60/40 in comparison to running this could spell trouble for Union. If these two areas Ice mentioned show up on Saturday Union will lose.

Ice Bear says maybe he is splitting hairs here, obviously Union is 8-0 with a huge win last week, yet their schedule before last week is not impressive. Ice is just calling it as he sees it and is certainly open to be challenged on these points. Saturday will tell us a ton...that is a ton for Saturday and probably nothing in regards to the upcoming Shoes game.

Good points Ice Bear, and here are some national stats regarding the "big 4" LL teams.  Start with the Defense:

Passing Yards Allowed per game:
RPI: 10th
Hobart: 15th
Ithaca: 33rd
Union: 45th

Now this right here is very impressive.  Also not shocking when you see what RPI did to Ithaca's offense.  For some reason, Hobart did not come close to stopping any of the bombers offense, which isn't horrible because no one has yet so far this year except for RPI.  (FYI Cortland is 8th nationally in this same stat)

Rushing Defense (yards allowed per game):
Ithaca 34th
Union 42nd
Hobart 46th
RPI 107th

RPI the obvious outlier here, but I didn't notice anything special about Hobart that RPI didn't do against Ithaca. 

Scoring Defense
Ithaca 10th
RPI 21nd
Union 27th
Hobart 30th

Everyone around the same here.  One game is going to move these numbers, weather also a factor on some Ithaca grass games possibly.

Total Defense
Hobart 15th
Ithaca 21st
Union 31st
RPI 35th

Also very close all around.  Ithaca had Hobart's number the day they played I guess, but these are all impressive national stats.

[Machiavelli]

Utah, you missed a very key and most important stat. I'll wait.....

[unionpalooza]

Seeing as how I'm one of "the geezers in front of the frat house" that Ice Bear refers to I feel obligated to comment and respond to both what Ice Bear said and Ned's questions.. Will Bellamy did not have a good day. His throws were off target but was it because of a undisclosed injury or the byproduct of a questionable game plan and play calling. The Hobart defense was playing 7 or 8 in the box to shut down the Dutchmen running game. Linebackers Bryan Aguilar and Emmett Forde were charging hard to the line of scrimmage which was limiting Union RB Ike Irabor to 2 or 3 yards per carry. When faced with passing situations the play call was too often an attempt to hit a big play rather than just move the chains. Union almost never throws to the TE which coupled with a screen, a draw or hitting a back out of the backfield would have been my preferred way to loosen up the Hobart D. Instead the bench sent in an extra offensive lineman and just kept running Irabor. Hey the game was won so what do I know.

As for the cannon. There have been a few instances this season when I haven't heard it. Maybe it's just because I'm getting used to it firing so often or maybe Bartman kidnapped the trigger man or the sacred weapon itself...And the program? It's virtual now! Is it Covid related, a cost cutting move or a I suspect laziness by the "Communications Director"(no more SID)? I'm old school too Ned. I want paper.

UfanBill,
     I took care of the trigger man and that damn cannon, I disguised myself as a CDC inspector and sent him off for a Covid test and then removed the firing mechanism while no one was watching...frankly I was surprised such a highly regarded Engineering and science department couldn't fix it in time for the game.
As far as the program, the good news is when you go to Butterfield they still have a printed program AND a media guide....you might want to pick one up unless it was only printed for homecoming.....and who was the evil scheduling genius that scheduled 2 away games for Hobart at BOTH Ithaca and Union's Homecoming/Reunion Weekends........Cruel very Cruel...Next year we'll have 2 Homecoming weekends to return the favor.....
   Having watched each one of the top four LL teams in person, I have a good sense for what will happen at Butterfield this week, and my old Dutchmen friends will not be happy.....more later in the week

Ice Bear says if he has learned and/or seen anything over time it is that using the results of games vs. common opponents doesn't always tell us the entire story, especially when trying to predict outcomes. With that said, he's also seen those results paint a somewhat accurate picture. Union controlled the entire game against SLU, winning easily. That certainly was not the case between Hobart and SLU...at Hobart.

Ice Bear can say one thing for sure, if his beloved Dutchmen decide to force the run as much as they did this past Saturday and not incorporate more of a passing game into the plan against IC they will leave Butterfield with their tail between their legs. What also worries Ice a bit is the poor play of the Union pass defense. Believe Ice as he gives Krewson a ton of credit for his game against U, however there were too many occasions where Pumpkinhead receivers were WAY TOO ****ing open. With a team like IC who throws maybe 60/40 in comparison to running this could spell trouble for Union. If these two areas Ice mentioned show up on Saturday Union will lose.

Ice Bear says maybe he is splitting hairs here, obviously Union is 8-0 with a huge win last week, yet their schedule before last week is not impressive. Ice is just calling it as he sees it and is certainly open to be challenged on these points. Saturday will tell us a ton...that is a ton for Saturday and probably nothing in regards to the upcoming Shoes game.

I too think Union really struggled to defend the deep ball last weekend, but in rewatching the game I really think some of that was scheme, where the strong safety was on the line of scrimmage opposite the slot rather than deep, which presumably was part of Union's plan to stop the Hobart run (which they generally did).  I would imagine Union will provide a lot more safety help next week, which to me means the real key is whether Union can stop the run while leaving both safeties deep.  On the other side of the field, it will all about whether Bellamy has the time and windows to complete 60+% of his passes.  If so, I suspect Union's balance will allow them to have a typical 30+point day.

There is also, I'd say, a meaningful chance that this will turn into a high-scoring track meet, in which cases, who knows.

[Jonny Utah]

And now the offense:

Total Offense:
Ithaca 28th
Union 79th
Hobart 81st
RPI 170th

Not too surprising here.  RPI looked pretty anemic, and Ithaca often finds tempo and puts on the gas if things look good.  (Also hurts them).

Scoring Offense
Union 32nd
Ithaca 74th
Hobart 81st
RPI 148th

Rushing (yards per game)
Hobart 28th
Union 51st
Ithaca 71st
RPI 188th

Hobart with maybe the top 1/2 back punch in the country. 

Passing Offense
Ithaca 37th
RPI 110th
Union 137th
Hobart 183rd

Overall it is clear that the LL has some good defensive teams, and the offenses have struggled (at times). 

[Jonny Utah]

Mach I had to get the silly stuff out of the way:

LL TOP STATS
Hobart 10th
Ithaca 46th
Union 100th
RPI 107th
Buff State 141st
SLU 156th
Rochester 217th

Well Coach DeWall has that Rolex spinning on all gears up in Geneva.  His old mentor Chad on the other hand?  Ugly.  Father Time has not been kind to the Yellow Jackets. 

[Jonny Utah]

[Jonny Utah]

So one thing looking at these stats that didn't add up in my mind, is how Ithaca had the top "offense" and Union had the top "scoring offense".  Ithaca has one of the top kickers in the country (leads the nation in FGs), but does that mean Union goes for it on 4th down more?  Let's take a look:

4th down conversion %:
Union 13th at 70%
RPI 24th at 63%
Ithaca 78th at 50%
Hobart 116th at 44%

Small sample size here though.

Red Zone Offense:
Union 25th
Hobart 69th
Ithaca 105th
RPI 158th

Red Zone a telling stat imo

[unionpalooza]

So one thing looking at these stats that didn't add up in my mind, is how Ithaca had the top "offense" and Union had the top "scoring offense".  Ithaca has one of the top kickers in the country (leads the nation in FGs), but does that mean Union goes for it on 4th down more?  Let's take a look:

4th down conversion %:
Union 13th at 70%
RPI 24th at 63%
Ithaca 78th at 50%
Hobart 116th at 44%

Small sample size here though.

Red Zone Offense:
Union 25th
Hobart 69th
Ithaca 105th
RPI 158th

Red Zone a telling stat imo

Maybe just a typo but Union's RZO is 5th, not 25th.  Union's very efficient on both sides of the ball - ranked 17/13 in 3rd/4th down conversions, and 22/23 in 3rd/4th down defense.

[Bartman]

Kevin is looking to move up the National rankings with TOP against Buff State and Rochester. Also, all of the national rankings stats should improve for Hobart in the last 2 games, especially on offense as our Oline has an easier time in the last 2 games(no disrespect) as both Denham and Boswell should gallop to some big numbers. It is all the Statesmen have left after making the Homecoming/Alumni Weekends successful with close last second wins for Ithaca and Union and being out of the race with 2 weeks left. When the season is over the Statesmen will probably be the best statistical team in the LL, but in the end, "that don't mean *hit".

[UfanBill]

A photo today of a member of the Ithaca Bombers grounds crew trying to locate the sidelines at Butterfield in preparation for this week's game.

Same guy still at it. It's a hard job.

[Bartman]

From Ice Bear:
"Believe Ice as he gives Krewson a ton of credit for his game against U, however there were too many occasions where Pumpkinhead receivers were WAY TOO ****ing open. With a team like IC who throws maybe 60/40 in comparison to running this could spell trouble for Union. If these two areas Ice mentioned show up on Saturday Union will lose."

Bartman couldn't believe how wide open the Bart receivers were, and this is not our best group compared to prior years, but Union DBs were in bad positions(scheme issues) and didn't make up for it athletically either.....I suspect Ithaca will take advantage of whatever scheme Union comes up with.....I don't think it looks good for getting 22 in a row. I was not totally surprised that RPI beat IC as their DBs were pretty solid and they matched up with IC, I don't think that's the case for Union , and Union will need every inch of home field against RPI the following week. These 4 teams are so incredibly close in overall talent.

[UfanBill]

Or is it?...So the old saying goes something like..."Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Or is it?...One of the unwanted consequences of last year's Covid schedule cancellation is that this year's games are being held at the same venue as 2019. Last week Hobart was at Union and this week Union is at Ithaca, just like 2019. I like to study the most recent match-ups of opponents to gain a perspective of how it might go this time. In looking at the Box Scores of Union/Hobart from 2019 and last week's game I see that the Union game plan in each was remarkably similar. In 2019 Union QB Bellamy was 10/17 for 98 yards with no TDS. Ike Irabor rushed 35 times for 191 yards and 2 scores. Heavy on the run game. Maybe that's why Union coach Behrman stayed consistent last week with Irabor rushing 36 times. It worked again as he scored 2 TDS. Union fans, including myself, may have wanted more passing but the game plan was nearly identical. Behrman, without a guarantee, got the "same results".

What will the Union game plan be this week against Ithaca?  In 2019 at Ithaca, Union's Irabor carried the ball 38 times for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bellamy threw a little more 17/26 194 yards i TD, but that paled in comparison to Ithaca QB Joe Germanerio's 38/60, 397! With all the Union runs and Ithaca passes Union controlled the TOP by an astonishing 36:44 to 23:16 and won 31-21. Ithaca is still primarily a passing team but don't look for 60 attempts. They want different results...Union will again try to establish Irabor with Bellamy mixing in key throws.  Coach Behrman would be very happy if his mantra of using similar performance gets the same results.  Another Dutchmen victory.     

                                                              LET'S GO U

[Jonny Utah]

Or is it?...So the old saying goes something like..."Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Or is it?...One of the unwanted consequences of last year's Covid schedule cancellation is that this year's games are being held at the same venue as 2019. Last week Hobart was at Union and this week Union is at Ithaca, just like 2019. I like to study the most recent match-ups of opponents to gain a perspective of how it might go this time. In looking at the Box Scores of Union/Hobart from 2019 and last week's game I see that the Union game plan in each was remarkably similar. In 2019 Union QB Bellamy was 10/17 for 98 yards with no TDS. Ike Irabor rushed 35 times for 191 yards and 2 scores. Heavy on the run game. Maybe that's why Union coach Behrman stayed consistent last week with Irabor rushing 36 times. It worked again as he scored 2 TDS. Union fans, including myself, may have wanted more passing but the game plan was nearly identical. Behrman, without a guarantee, got the "same results".

What will the Union game plan be this week against Ithaca?  In 2019 at Ithaca, Union's Irabor carried the ball 38 times for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bellamy threw a little more 17/26 194 yards i TD, but that paled in comparison to Ithaca QB Joe Germanerio's 38/60, 397! With all the Union runs and Ithaca passes Union controlled the TOP by an astonishing 36:44 to 23:16 and won 31-21. Ithaca is still primarily a passing team but don't look for 60 attempts. They want different results...Union will again try to establish Irabor with Bellamy mixing in key throws.  Coach Behrman would be very happy if his mantra of using similar performance gets the same results.  Another Dutchmen victory.     

                                                              LET'S GO U

UfanBill......

Let's not go back to the original TOP discussion and how they didn't mean much for Ithaca since they run tempo and some games it was quick and some games it wasn't.  What I remember from the Ithaca/Union game from 2019 is that Union (especially on offense) had great execution, especially when they needed a big play.  Ithaca's offense this year is different than it was in 2019.  The QB doesn't run it, except on the zone read and maybe a QB ice/draw every once in a while. 

I think Ithaca's defense is better this year?  They did seem to collapse at times, versus Hobart and Bridgewater State specifically, but have also been better against the run and it shows.  But, with a back like Ike, all he needs to do is break one or make one nice cut and he can take it to the house at any given time.  Ithaca does not have an RB like that.

To add to Ithaca's differences from two years ago, the QB (Wingfield) is very good, very accurate, and makes very smart decisions.  Joe G. was a stud, and it is tough to say he wasn't one of the best players I've seen play at the d3 level, but he did seem "choppy" at times with the Ithaca offense.  Wingfield is smooth, and made 3-4 NFL style passes in the Hobart game that were impossible to stop (fade stop type passes).

Ithaca had also won nine in a row versus Union until 2019, and that was always hanging over their head.  Like RPI owning Ithaca, it had seemed Ithaca had owned Union, until that 2019 game where Union snapped the streak.