FB: Liberty League

[Jersey42]

While the predictions are sometime way off, Logan Hansen puts a lot of effort into his D3 football model. While there are several models for D3 basketball, this is the only one I am aware of for football. I always find it interesting to look at. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FqYgbc2ZAbF3m0sdzwLg6T6bjCF2AF7LoLBYnLiJqek

Here are his model's predictions for this week's LL games along with two E8 games pitting 2022 LL opponents against each other.  While Hobart-Ithaca may turn out very differently, I think the prediction is reasonable.

Home	Score	Win%	Away	Score	Win%
Hobart	17	29%	Ithaca	26	71%
Rochester	05	9%	RPI	25	91%
Union	43	98%	Buffalo State	10	2%
Brockport	25	89%	St. John Fisher	06	11%
Cortland	34	88%	Morrisville State	16	12%

[Jonny Utah]

While the predictions are sometime way off, Logan Hansen puts a lot of effort into his D3 football model. While there are several models for D3 basketball, this is the only one I am aware of for football. I always find it interesting to look at. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FqYgbc2ZAbF3m0sdzwLg6T6bjCF2AF7LoLBYnLiJqek

Here are his model's predictions for this week's LL games along with two E8 games pitting 2022 LL opponents against each other.  While Hobart-Ithaca may turn out very differently, I think the prediction is reasonable.

Home	Score	Win%	Away	Score	Win%
Hobart	17	29%	Ithaca	26	71%
Rochester	05	9%	RPI	25	91%
Union	43	98%	Buffalo State	10	2%
Brockport	25	89%	St. John Fisher	06	11%
Cortland	34	88%	Morrisville State	16	12%

I wonder how Rochester is getting that safety.....

[Pat Coleman]

While the predictions are sometime way off, Logan Hansen puts a lot of effort into his D3 football model. While there are several models for D3 basketball, this is the only one I am aware of for football. I always find it interesting to look at. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FqYgbc2ZAbF3m0sdzwLg6T6bjCF2AF7LoLBYnLiJqek

Here are his model's predictions for this week's LL games along with two E8 games pitting 2022 LL opponents against each other.  While Hobart-Ithaca may turn out very differently, I think the prediction is reasonable.

Home	Score	Win%	Away	Score	Win%
Hobart	17	29%	Ithaca	26	71%
Rochester	05	9%	RPI	25	91%
Union	43	98%	Buffalo State	10	2%
Brockport	25	89%	St. John Fisher	06	11%
Cortland	34	88%	Morrisville State	16	12%

I wonder how Rochester is getting that safety.....

There have been a number of safeties this year!

From the looks of it, also could be a defensive two-point conversion.

[Ice Bear]

Looking forward to the OPPORTUNITY of getting the Bombers monkey off the Statesmen's back since Ithaca joined the LL. Hobart has not won the LL since the addition of IC. IC always has a solid team and has a 29-4 record against Hobart over the history of the programs. Those 4 wins were 4 of the last 5 contests played at the Boz. Krewson is totally motivated to defend the BOZ and there is enough talent on this team to get a win. Ithaca looks very good, but why did the Brockport game stall for the Bombers after the first quarter?  Both of these teams still have some young players that haven't had enough experience yet, but they also have some veterans that have been in some close contests and will not be intimidated by the importance of the game. Ithaca had a bye week and the time to focus on well practiced  game plan at the BOZ. Hobart had a great opportunity to fine tune the Offense and defense against Keystone as well as give some serious playing time to the depth chart that may serve them well on Saturday. I expect a very hard hitting game and unfortunately injuries often follow the intensity of a game like this. Depth will be important at all of the skill positions, and I think Hobart has developed some in the last 4 games.
    So, I expect Hobart to be double digit underdogs(essentially due to the Morrisville loss), but I am not looking at the game without some confidence that the BOZ magic, the drive by Krewson, etal to keep in contention for the first LL title since 2016, will make for a GREAT early season LL game.GOBART!

Actually, Bart has 5 wins in the series, last coming in 2016.

Here's something I wrote on Monday for you LL fans:

http://gohobart.blogspot.com/2022/09/week-5-ithaca-game-preview.html

Nice write up ITH.  A few other things that I have found interesting about Ithaca and this matchup.

Ithaca is 187th out of 229 teams in passing yards per completion.  They throw more WR screens for 4-6 yards than probably anyone which impacts this stat, but it also may show their lack of a deep threat.  #3 Anderson for them is clearly their most dangerous WR with speed but he isn't a big guy and doesn't get separation deep.  Ithaca seems to get him open on special plays and he is dangerous there, but if Hobart wants to gamble a little more with their SS that might force Wingfield into deep throws he might not want to make. 

Ithaca is 6th in the country in kickoff returns and Hobart is 12th.  Both elite return groups that need to be accounted for.  Ithaca is also 31st in punt returns, with Anderson being their primary punt returner and Anthony D'Addetta being their other Kickoff return man.  Hobart is 167th in punt returns but with only 7 returns so far the stat might not mean that much.

Ithaca has 10 penalties in 3 games so far putting them tied at 11th in the country. 

Hobart is first (tied) in the country in 4th down conversion as they are 4-4. 

Hobart has blocked 4 kicks this year (tied for 4th nationally).  That may come into play if Ithaca wants to try a deep FG which they like to do.

Across the board they look pretty even without much to compare too.  Both played some good teams and some bad teams but I think ITH had something when he noted that starting strong and moving the chains will be key in this game.  Ithaca has been hot in the first quarter and first half so far.

Ice sends some K to the likes of Utah, 42, ITH, and Bartman for the ****ing mastermind breakdowns/stats/discussions. Ice loves this ****!

[Jersey42]

I wonder how Rochester is getting that safety.....

I wonder more about how RPI is going to score 25 points. 

RPI is currently giving up exactly 5 points per game, so 5 is a reasonable mathematical prediction.
As far as how they get the safety, Pat Coleman's defensive 2 pt conversion prediction may be correct.  But I believe RPI has been practicing the QB run out of the end zone play to avoid a potential blocked punt. 

[Bartman]

Looking forward to the OPPORTUNITY of getting the Bombers monkey off the Statesmen's back since Ithaca joined the LL. Hobart has not won the LL since the addition of IC. IC always has a solid team and has a 29-4 record against Hobart over the history of the programs. Those 4 wins were 4 of the last 5 contests played at the Boz. Krewson is totally motivated to defend the BOZ and there is enough talent on this team to get a win. Ithaca looks very good, but why did the Brockport game stall for the Bombers after the first quarter?  Both of these teams still have some young players that haven't had enough experience yet, but they also have some veterans that have been in some close contests and will not be intimidated by the importance of the game. Ithaca had a bye week and the time to focus on well practiced  game plan at the BOZ. Hobart had a great opportunity to fine tune the Offense and defense against Keystone as well as give some serious playing time to the depth chart that may serve them well on Saturday. I expect a very hard hitting game and unfortunately injuries often follow the intensity of a game like this. Depth will be important at all of the skill positions, and I think Hobart has developed some in the last 4 games.
    So, I expect Hobart to be double digit underdogs(essentially due to the Morrisville loss), but I am not looking at the game without some confidence that the BOZ magic, the drive by Krewson, etal to keep in contention for the first LL title since 2016, will make for a GREAT early season LL game.GOBART!

Actually, Bart has 5 wins in the series, last coming in 2016.

Here's something I wrote on Monday for you LL fans:

http://gohobart.blogspot.com/2022/09/week-5-ithaca-game-preview.html

Thanks ITH, I actually got my information from the IC Athletics website and they only had Bart with 4 wins, because they mysteriously eliminated the 1983 win by the Statesmen. Is there an explanation for this or is there a plot by the Bombers SID to make his team look even better??? An investigation needs to follow.

[Ice Bear]

I wonder how Rochester is getting that safety.....

I wonder more about how RPI is going to score 25 points. 

RPI is currently giving up exactly 5 points per game, so 5 is a reasonable mathematical prediction.
As far as how they get the safety, Pat Coleman's defensive 2 pt conversion prediction may be correct.  But I believe RPI has been practicing the QB run out of the end zone play to avoid a potential blocked punt. 

Ice says or butt punt 

[Jersey42]

I wonder how Rochester is getting that safety.....

I wonder more about how RPI is going to score 25 points. 

RPI is currently giving up exactly 5 points per game, so 5 is a reasonable mathematical prediction.
As far as how they get the safety, Pat Coleman's defensive 2 pt conversion prediction may be correct.  But I believe RPI has been practicing the QB run out of the end zone play to avoid a potential blocked punt. 

Ice says or butt punt 

I don't know how I missed that, "butt" I think you are correct.  After all, RPI's punter from a few years back played a couple of years with the Dolphins (aka the butt punt experts).  That's probably the connection.  And I think that ends the speculation 

[Jonny Utah]

LL STAT OF THE WEEK
St. Lawrence is currently 8th in the nation in TOP.  Other LL national rankings in TOP:

44. Rochester
49. Ithaca
111. Hobart
131. Buffalo State
150. Union
157. RPI

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear really enjoyed the article on Utica on the front page. As always it was very well written and brought forth the feeling of inspiration and accomplishment. Ice is really high on Zenelovic and believes the kid is for real. Ice loves his size and his athleticism. Ice was also impressed with the athletes accompanying him on O and on the defensive side of the ball as well. Ice will be rooting for the Pioneers moving forward.

Ice does feel it important to share that he believes, wholeheartedly and without question, that if Paccatte stayed in the game, Union would have won by multiple scores. Everything about the game changed at the exact moment Pacatte went down.  Ice has never seen anything like it.

Regardless Utica still deserves a ton of credit and they certainly won over his respect with the comeback.

[Jonny Utah]

Ice Bear really enjoyed the article on Utica on the front page. As always it was very well written and brought forth the feeling of inspiration and accomplishment. Ice is really high on Zenelovic and believes the kid is for real. Ice loves his size and his athleticism. Ice was also impressed with the athletes accompanying him on O and on the defensive side of the ball as well. Ice will be rooting for the Pioneers moving forward.

Ice does feel it important to share that he believes, wholeheartedly and without question, that if Paccatte stayed in the game, Union would have won by multiple scores. Everything about the game changed at the exact moment Pacatte went down.  Ice has never seen anything like it.

Regardless Utica still deserves a ton of credit and they certainly won over his respect with the comeback.

TBH Icebear, you should be much more embarrassed with Union's TOP numbers.  I see you are avoiding the subject.   

[Bartman]

LL STAT OF THE WEEK
St. Lawrence is currently 8th in the nation in TOP.  Other LL national rankings in TOP:

44. Rochester
49. Ithaca
111. Hobart
131. Buffalo State
150. Union
157. RPI

Johnny U, I know TOP is important, which essentially means your opponent does not have the ball and their scoring chances are reduced. But consider the famous TOPRZO Index, which combines TOP with Red Zone Offense efficiency.( what's the use of holding the ball if you don't score?)In this case Union is ranked #1 as they have scored 100% once in the RedZone, so their Index is 150(TOP) + 1( RZO) = 151 TOPRZ Index . For the LL this is how they rank thru week 4:

     1. Ithaca 97( 49,48)
     2.Union. 151(150, 1)
     3.Hobart.187(111,76)
     4. SLU.    189(8,181)
     5.UofR.   241(44,197)
     6.BuffSt.  284(131,153)
     7. RPI.     320(163,157)

This tells me the LL overall had issues in the Red Zone scoring in the OOC games(contributing to a down year). Ithaca has the most balanced offense based on this Index,  and RPI sucks(so far). Let's see how the LL schedule results look like, and whether this index is helpful.
     

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear really enjoyed the article on Utica on the front page. As always it was very well written and brought forth the feeling of inspiration and accomplishment. Ice is really high on Zenelovic and believes the kid is for real. Ice loves his size and his athleticism. Ice was also impressed with the athletes accompanying him on O and on the defensive side of the ball as well. Ice will be rooting for the Pioneers moving forward.

Ice does feel it important to share that he believes, wholeheartedly and without question, that if Paccatte stayed in the game, Union would have won by multiple scores. Everything about the game changed at the exact moment Pacatte went down.  Ice has never seen anything like it.

Regardless Utica still deserves a ton of credit and they certainly won over his respect with the comeback.

TBH Icebear, you should be much more embarrassed with Union's TOP numbers.  I see you are avoiding the subject.   

Ice says honesty is appreciated always Utah. The Bear is embarrassed and ashamed...that is all.

[UfanBill]

I wonder how Rochester is getting that safety.....

I wonder more about how RPI is going to score 25 points. 

RPI is currently giving up exactly 5 points per game, so 5 is a reasonable mathematical prediction.
As far as how they get the safety, Pat Coleman's defensive 2 pt conversion prediction may be correct.  But I believe RPI has been practicing the QB run out of the end zone play to avoid a potential blocked punt. 

Ice says or butt punt 

I don't know how I missed that, "butt" I think you are correct.  After all, RPI's punter from a few years back played a couple of years with the Dolphins (aka the butt punt experts).  That's probably the connection.  And I think that ends the speculation 

It's usually not my thing to correct other posters Jersey42 but you're new to these boards (at least posting under this handle) and you're apparently an RPI guy so this needs to be done...It was RPI placekicker Andrew Franks who played for the Dolphins.   

[Jersey42]

It's usually not my thing to correct other posters Jersey42 but you're new to these boards (at least posting under this handle) and you're apparently an RPI guy so this needs to be done...It was RPI placekicker Andrew Franks who played for the Dolphins.

Franks was both the punter and the placekicker for RPI, but of course he was better known as the placekicker for the Dolphins. I only mentioned former punter at RPI because it better fit Ice Bear's brilliant butt punt theory