FB: Liberty League

[Bartman]

Bartman stopped by THE BOZ to watch the Statesmen practice and was encouraged by the returning talent( especially Boswell and Denham) and a few of the Freshmen......especially love the name and potential of Tru Styles ,a  6'4" 215 lb QB  St. Marks, Mass recruit, seems destined for a great LL future whenever Coach DeWall feels he is ready. Hudl tape on Sr year shows super potential. The Saxon Warriors Friday night fight in Mayberry is almost here......

[Jersey42]

Interesting tidbit, now that rosters are starting to be posted - starting to see a return to parity in terms of senior numbers.  Ithaca's roster shows 19 seniors and 14 graduate students, for 34 senior guys (down from 46 last year year).  Union's roster reports 31 seniors (no grad program there) (up from 23 last year), and Hobart reports 19 seniors (again, no grad program).  RPI hasn't posted yet - they had 41 last year (16 grad students and 25 seniors).  They only had 10 juniors last year, so I would expect that number to be down.

Still no 2023 roster for RPI.

RPI finally put out their roster.  Here are some observations, based on what I have read and who is listed on the roster.  I have not seen any practices, nor do I have any knowledgeable sources.

RPI has lost probably 14 or 15 senior or grad starters depending on how you count.  This includes all six of their LL first teamers and 2 of 3 LL second teamers.  The 2 second teamers that are not returning appeared to have a remaining year of eligibility left. Seven LL 2nd teamers or honorable mentions return.  They certainly appear to have lots of holes to fill.

One potentially interesting grad transfer is listed as a K/P.  He was on the roster at both Colgate and Vanderbilt but never played.
Some of the freshmen garnered lots of accolades in high school, but you never know how any of this translates to college.  A few notes on NY and NJ players:

   
• 5 players on the NYSSWA class AA all state 3rd-6th teams
• 2 players on the NYSSWA class A all state 1st-2nd teams
• 1 player on the NYSSWA class B all state 2nd team
• 1 player on the NJ all state 3rd team (all groups combined)
• 1 NJ group V player who holds school record for TD passes (52) and yards (5410)
• Others have accolades in their states, but I am much less familiar with the classifications in other states.

Roster breakdown by class:
Freshmen - 45
Sophomores - 29
Juniors - 24
Seniors - 9
Grad/5th Yr - 9
*74 of 116 are underclassmen, and very few seniors/grads.

Roster breakdown by state:
NY - 37
MA - 15
NJ - 15
PA - 13
MD - 11
FL -  5
CA -  4
CT -  4
GA -  2
TX -  2
VA -  2
WA -  2
CO -  1
IN -  1
MI -  1
NV -  1

[unionpalooza]

Interesting tidbit, now that rosters are starting to be posted - starting to see a return to parity in terms of senior numbers.  Ithaca's roster shows 19 seniors and 14 graduate students, for 34 senior guys (down from 46 last year year).  Union's roster reports 31 seniors (no grad program there) (up from 23 last year), and Hobart reports 19 seniors (again, no grad program).  RPI hasn't posted yet - they had 41 last year (16 grad students and 25 seniors).  They only had 10 juniors last year, so I would expect that number to be down.

Still no 2023 roster for RPI.

RPI finally put out their roster.  Here are some observations, based on what I have read and who is listed on the roster.  I have not seen any practices, nor do I have any knowledgeable sources.

RPI has lost probably 14 or 15 senior or grad starters depending on how you count.  This includes all six of their LL first teamers and 2 of 3 LL second teamers.  The 2 second teamers that are not returning appeared to have a remaining year of eligibility left. Seven LL 2nd teamers or honorable mentions return.  They certainly appear to have lots of holes to fill.

One potentially interesting grad transfer is listed as a K/P.  He was on the roster at both Colgate and Vanderbilt but never played.
Some of the freshmen garnered lots of accolades in high school, but you never know how any of this translates to college.  A few notes on NY and NJ players:

   
• 5 players on the NYSSWA class AA all state 3rd-6th teams
• 2 players on the NYSSWA class A all state 1st-2nd teams
• 1 player on the NYSSWA class B all state 2nd team
• 1 player on the NJ all state 3rd team (all groups combined)
• 1 NJ group V player who holds school record for TD passes (52) and yards (5410)
• Others have accolades in their states, but I am much less familiar with the classifications in other states.

Roster breakdown by class:
Freshmen - 45
Sophomores - 29
Juniors - 24
Seniors - 9
Grad/5th Yr - 9
*74 of 116 are underclassmen, and very few seniors/grads.

Roster breakdown by state:
NY - 37
MA - 15
NJ - 15
PA - 13
MD - 11
FL -  5
CA -  4
CT -  4
GA -  2
TX -  2
VA -  2
WA -  2
CO -  1
IN -  1
MI -  1
NV -  1

Thanks, Jersey42, this analysis is awesome - much appreciated.

I'm a little shocked by how down the RPI senior/grad numbers are - I guess coming back from a deep playoff run is more enticing than returning after a season where they missed a playoff?

Having seen all four rosters, I think I'd put my LL top four as Ithaca, Union, Hobart, and RPI (in that order).  As always, the wildcards will be injuries and which teams have breakout underclassman.  I think it will be a little while before we really know who's who, as there are only a handful of nonconf games against an higher quality opponents (Ithaca will the toughest match against JHU, Ithaca v. Endicott, Union v. Springfield, RPI at Wilkes, and Hobart at MoVille).

The LL big four round robin this year looks like this:

9/30:  Hobart at Ithaca
10/7:  Ithaca at RPI
10/14: Union at Ithaca
10/21:  Hobart at Union
11/4:  RPI at Hobart
11/11:  RPI at Union

[Bartman]

Interesting tidbit, now that rosters are starting to be posted - starting to see a return to parity in terms of senior numbers.  Ithaca's roster shows 19 seniors and 14 graduate students, for 34 senior guys (down from 46 last year year).  Union's roster reports 31 seniors (no grad program there) (up from 23 last year), and Hobart reports 19 seniors (again, no grad program).  RPI hasn't posted yet - they had 41 last year (16 grad students and 25 seniors).  They only had 10 juniors last year, so I would expect that number to be down.

Still no 2023 roster for RPI.

RPI finally put out their roster.  Here are some observations, based on what I have read and who is listed on the roster.  I have not seen any practices, nor do I have any knowledgeable sources.

RPI has lost probably 14 or 15 senior or grad starters depending on how you count.  This includes all six of their LL first teamers and 2 of 3 LL second teamers.  The 2 second teamers that are not returning appeared to have a remaining year of eligibility left. Seven LL 2nd teamers or honorable mentions return.  They certainly appear to have lots of holes to fill.

One potentially interesting grad transfer is listed as a K/P.  He was on the roster at both Colgate and Vanderbilt but never played.
Some of the freshmen garnered lots of accolades in high school, but you never know how any of this translates to college.  A few notes on NY and NJ players:

   
• 5 players on the NYSSWA class AA all state 3rd-6th teams
• 2 players on the NYSSWA class A all state 1st-2nd teams
• 1 player on the NYSSWA class B all state 2nd team
• 1 player on the NJ all state 3rd team (all groups combined)
• 1 NJ group V player who holds school record for TD passes (52) and yards (5410)
• Others have accolades in their states, but I am much less familiar with the classifications in other states.

Roster breakdown by class:
Freshmen - 45
Sophomores - 29
Juniors - 24
Seniors - 9
Grad/5th Yr - 9
*74 of 116 are underclassmen, and very few seniors/grads.

Roster breakdown by state:
NY - 37
MA - 15
NJ - 15
PA - 13
MD - 11
FL -  5
CA -  4
CT -  4
GA -  2
TX -  2
VA -  2
WA -  2
CO -  1
IN -  1
MI -  1
NV -  1

Thanks, Jersey42, this analysis is awesome - much appreciated.

I'm a little shocked by how down the RPI senior/grad numbers are - I guess coming back from a deep playoff run is more enticing than returning after a season where they missed a playoff?

Having seen all four rosters, I think I'd put my LL top four as Ithaca, Union, Hobart, and RPI (in that order).  As always, the wildcards will be injuries and which teams have breakout underclassman.  I think it will be a little while before we really know who's who, as there are only a handful of nonconf games against an higher quality opponents (Ithaca will the toughest match against JHU, Ithaca v. Endicott, Union v. Springfield, RPI at Wilkes, and Hobart at MoVille).

The LL big four round robin this year looks like this:

9/30:  Hobart at Ithaca
10/7:  Ithaca at RPI
10/14: Union at Ithaca
10/21:  Hobart at Union
11/4:  RPI at Hobart
11/11:  RPI at Union

+k to unionpalooza and Jersey42 for the preseason data and discussion. To me, Ithaca is the clear favorite for the LL title. While RPI may have the look of a rebuilding year, I think they have a very effective and clever coach that can never be counted out, especially towards the end of the season. I think the key to the Hobart season will be how the OLine develops which could be a good sign for the back of the schedule where the Union and RPI games are scheduled, but playing Ithaca at Ithaca after only 3 OOC games will be a problem for the Statesmen. Ithaca then plays at RPI followed by another home game against Union. Unless RPI befuddles the Bombers in Troy with a great game plan (I don't see Ithaca stumbling at home to either Hobart or Union) the Bombers going undefeated in the LL and wrapping the LL title up early is likely. I hope I'm wrong.

[UfanBill]

Liberty League Preseason Poll... To no one's surprise Ithaca is the favorite. This also includes a short synopsis of each Liberty League team.  https://new.express.adobe.com/webpage/BaUhSx4pIetmC

[IC798891]

The Yellow Jackets could easily surprise some folks this year. Led by prolific RB Daniel Panpantonis and fellow 1st team LL selection DL Bradley Beckwith they've built talent and depth to their roster under capable HC Chad Martinovich. They reportedly have 9 starters returning on both sides of the ball. A lot will be revealed by how they fare in their opener hosting rebuilding Utica but their next 3 OOC games seem winable...Alfred St., Salve Regina and the University of New England. They open LL play at Buffalo St. week #5 before things get tougher. Could they be 5-0 traveling to Union on Oct 7th...4-1, ? Could happen. 

I'm less excited about Rochester. I mean, could they run the table OOC? Possibly. Utica couldn't stop Papantonis last year. It would have been fun had he played that whole game and finished with 600 yards.

But Rochester only scored 8 touchdowns in 6 conference games, with four of them coming against St Lawrence.

Right now, with Papantonis and Varney, Rochester is running a Bo Jackson offense. Are they a threat to go to the house every time? Absolutely. And against playoff caliber teams.

But if you take away those plays, they're not going to score. The only team they could score on without those plays was St Lawrence. You can have a passing game that doesn't kill you down the field (See: Ithaca), but not if you only complete 48% of those passes. (See: Ithaca's 68%). They simply need to get better in the passing game. And maybe they will. But I want to see it.

[ICAlum16]

Liberty League Preseason Poll... To no one's surprise Ithaca is the favorite. This also includes a short synopsis of each Liberty League team.  https://new.express.adobe.com/webpage/BaUhSx4pIetmC

Is it time for week 1 predictions?

[unionpalooza]

Liberty League Preseason Poll... To no one's surprise Ithaca is the favorite. This also includes a short synopsis of each Liberty League team.  https://new.express.adobe.com/webpage/BaUhSx4pIetmC

Is it time for week 1 predictions?

LET'S DO IT.

Hobart 34, Alfred 10.
RPI 17, Dickinson 16.
Union 38, Hilbert 10.
JHU 27, Ithaca 20.
Utica 24, Rochacha 13.
Endicott 27, SLU 10.
Brockport 42, Buff St 2.

[Bartman]

I'll bite....Week One Picks

Hobart 31, Alfred 14
.
RPI 14, Dickinson 10.

Union 35, Hilbert 7.

Ithaca 28, JHU 27
.
Utica 17, Rochester 7
.
Endicott 28, SLU 17.

Brockport 38, Buff St 7.

LL goes 4-3 for the weekend.

[ICAlum16]

Liberty League Preseason Poll... To no one's surprise Ithaca is the favorite. This also includes a short synopsis of each Liberty League team.  https://new.express.adobe.com/webpage/BaUhSx4pIetmC

Is it time for week 1 predictions?

Can't pose the question and not give my own picks

IC 31 JHU 28 (homer pick)
Hobart 35 Alfred 3
Union 42 Hilbert 10
Utica 27 Rochester 17
Endicott 24 SLU 7
Brockport 38 Buff St 9

[Jersey42]

It is hard to pick the first week or two, and this will probably be my first and only week at making picks.  With all but one of the games on the road, I am not feeling great about the Liberty League in week one. Perhaps I will be surprised.

Brockport at Buffalo State
Buffalo State has won only two games since the end of the 2017 season.  Brockport.

Hobart at Alfred
Alfred was 2-8 last year including a loss to Hobart.  Hobart has not lost to Alfred since 1995.  Hobart.

St. Lawrence at Endicott
Endicott had an undefeated regular season last year including a shutout victory at St. Lawrence.  This time the Saints travel to Massachusetts.  Endicott.

Union at Hilbert
Hilbert is a second year program that has yet to win a game.  Union

Utica at Rochester
Utica went 9-1 last year in the regular season and they won an NCAA tournament game.  Utica

Now for the tougher picks:

RPI at Dickinson
Dickinson was only 3-7 last year and they lost at RPI 14-7 in the opener for both schools.  In that game Dickinson's highly touted transfer QB Presley Egbers was injured in the 2nd quarter and never played the rest of the season.  Prior to Dickinson, Egbers was the ODAC player of the year at Randolph Macon where he led the Yellow Jackets to a 9-1 record and a spot in the top 25.  With Egbers back, a long bus trip and RPI losing so many starters, I give the edge to the home team in a close one.  Dickinson

Ithaca at Johns Hopkins
Ithaca had a great season last year.  They started out at 12-0 including two playoff wins before being steamrolled by national runner up North Central in the quarter finals of the NCAA playoffs.  Johns Hopkins went 10-1 but missed the NCAA playoffs because of a two point loss at Susquehanna.  Arguably they were the last at large team out.  Both teams are in the D3 top 20. This game could go either way, but once again I will give a slight edge to the home team. Johns Hopkins

[HansenRatings]

Playoff projections for the season using my model's preseason ratings:



You can look at other conferences on my website: https://hansenratings.github.io/.

[Ice Bear]

Brockport at Buffalo State - Ice sighs...****ing Buffalo State...
Brockport.

Hobart at Alfred - Ice admittedly doesn't know much about Alfred coming into this season. He watched them play a couple of times last season and was surprised at how much they struggled compared to past years. Ice believes they will be better this season but he also believes the same about the Pumpkinheads...which he says is not good for Peps Mighty Saxons.
Pumpkins

St. Lawrence at Endicott - Ice always roots for SLU to be good and it's been a bit since that was the case. He hopes for an improved season here for the Saints. However Ice believes it won't happen in week #1.
The ****ing Gulls will Fly

Union at Hilbert - Ice appreciates his Garnet throwing Hilbert a bone here scheduling them as a new program and all. Ice, the traditional snowflake that he is says this world needs a lot more kindness...Ice hopes it doesn't come at the expense of the Garnet.
Union

Utica at Rochester - Ice also always hopes for a better Yellow Jacket program and thinks he may see some of that this season...Ice calls for the upset here as Utica may have a drop off from their ****ing orgasm last season. It all depends upon who the Pioneers have brought in to fill some of the departures.
Ra Cha Cha

RPI at Dickinson - For Ice, it's always a mind**** regarding RPI. Whenever he roots for them/picks them in a passionate manner, they tend to not do well. Ice says of course any-****ing-time he roots against them they win. So Ice will root against them because he really wants them to win here.
Dick...really RPI STFU!

Ithaca at Johns Hopkins - Ice has a ton of respect for the Bombers and rooted for them with a passion from Cortaca on. Ice feels like Hopkins is on a hair higher of a level then the LL best. Ice hopes he's wrong here and will be rooting for the Bombers but expecting Hopkins.
The Bluebird Lax School

[Bartman]

Playoff projections for the season using my model's preseason ratings:



You can look at other conferences on my website: https://hansenratings.github.io/.

Mr. Hansen,+k, Thank you for sharing your predictive model with its 10,000 simulations for the LL 2023 season. I always find your work valuable and interesting. I like that Hobart has an 18% chance of the Pool A bid. We'll see.

[Bartman]

Multiple source feedback from Hobart-Cortland scrimmage last week was Cortland's offense is outstanding with every weapon you could possibly need from OL, QB,RB and stellar WRs. Hobart D is very strong with 8 returning starters and should keep the Bart close in tough games. Hobart O is still a work in progress on the Oline , but they competed well, with Cortland having an overall  21-14 scoring advantage while starters were in. Hoping this bodes well for Friday night in Alfred .