FB: Liberty League

[IC798891]

I'm not sure this is chaos, though it's unfortunate in the sense that it would give the LL one participant — which could be an 8-2 team sent on the road

[Machiavelli]

Mach's Week 10 Predictions that are so sexy you may struggle to finish your day with pants:

Ithaca - 49
St. Lawrence - 9
Ithaca rolls with ease.

RPI - 35
Hobart - 17
Already let the cat out of the bag on this pick. But as previously mentioned, I feel like RPI is going to put on a performance.

Buffalo St. - 13
Union - 52
Union might press for some style points this week. I think they push hard until mid Q4 with TOP off the charts.

Enjoy the pantless afternoon.

[Oline89]

IC 35  SLU 0

Union 42  Buff St 6

Hobart 24  RPI 21

Hobart remains tough at home (with IC being the exception)

[Jersey42]

Ithaca @ SLU. Tune up for Cortaca and the NCAA's. Ithaca 35 - 7

Union @ Buffalo State. Easy win for Union.  Union 48 - 14.

RPI @ Hobart.  If RPI can avoid stupid penalties and bad interceptions I think this will be their biggest margin of victory in Geneva in a long time.  If not, and Hobart can capitalize, RPI will not have to worry about a meaningful Shoes game next week.  I think it will be the former.    RPI 31 - 14.

[UfanBill]

This week's picks...

Ithaca 38 - St. Lawrence 13...It may take awhile for the Bombers to roll.

Union 38 - Buffalo St. 13...The Garnet roll early and turn it over to the reserves.

Hobart 23 - RPI 20...Statesmen take an early lead and hold on...I've gotta go with the upset to make any headway in the picks rankings even though I would hate for it to happen.

[unionpalooza]

Today's Rossi/Baker podcast has an interesting tidbit - apparently the NCAA's stated reason for only ranking 7 teams per region (rather than 20% per region, the old rule, which would idle 9 for R2) is because the RAC calls were taking too long. 

That is absolute garbage horsesh*t, and whoever made that decision on that basis should shampoo my crotch.

2,500 kids bust their butt all season long, and the coaches who sit on the RACs (none of whom are forced at gunpoint, remind you) can't be bothered to spend an extra hour on the phone to fairly figure out who makes the playoffs?  The remarkable disdain and disrespect that the NCAA D3 infrastructure shows for the kids who play the game is pretty remarkable.  There's nothing worse than having power for no good reason, and wielding it poorly.

[Jonny Utah]

Today's Rossi/Baker podcast has an interesting tidbit - apparently the NCAA's stated reason for only ranking 7 teams per region (rather than 20% per region, the old rule, which would idle 9 for R2) is because the RAC calls were taking too long. 

That is absolute garbage horsesh*t, and whoever made that decision on that basis should shampoo my crotch.

2,500 kids bust their butt all season long, and the coaches who sit on the RACs (none of whom are forced at gunpoint, remind you) can't be bothered to spend an extra hour on the phone to fairly figure out who makes the playoffs?  The remarkable disdain and disrespect that the NCAA D3 infrastructure shows for the kids who play the game is pretty remarkable.  There's nothing worse than having power for no good reason, and wielding it poorly.

Ha yea, at first I thought the rankings don't mean much anyway with two weeks to go but then I just thought how silly it was for them to not simply come up with a list. 

Anyway I took a little dive and did some reading into the possible pool C bids for everyone.  Let me see if I have this straight.

-There are 4 pool C spots in the country.
 
-Barring huge upsets, two of those spots are going to a WIAC team and Wheaton.  Mt. Union losing to JCU would put Mt. Union there, but JCU goes down with the pack if they lose to Mt. Union imo.

-After that you have:
1. Muhlenberg
2. Cortland/Brockport loser
3. Union/RPI winner (#2 and #3 here will depend a lot on how Ithaca does against Cortland, and RPI still has to get by Hobart)
4. Carnegie Mellon
5. Coe
then some teams I know nothing about:
6. Bellhaven
7. Depaw if they lose to Wabash

-Whitworth could beat Linfield, that would add Linfield to the secondary list I would say.

-MIAC?  I have no idea what those goofy bastards are doing with their conference championship.

-Does the WIAC get a 3rd team?  I'd say UW-Lacrosse losing to Hardin Simmons, the team that got shackled by Endicott tells me know, they don't get the benefit of the doubt.  Huge win for the east that ended up being for Endicott.

-I think you have to give some teams some credit for scheduling tough OCC games.  Wisconsin Whitewater?  They played JCU, St. Johns and MHB.  UWL played Hardin Simmons and two division 2 teams.  UMB played Trinity, UWW and UWRF.  In the east Endicott and Ithaca raised the bar this year as well. 

Anyway I'm probably missing something big but it seems upon first glance Union and RPI have an uphill battle. 

[Ice Bear]

There is certainly a lot left to play out but I do agree that 9-1 Union/RPI probably won't be a lock. I am very intrigued by the Bport/Cortland matchup tomorrow. It's amazing the difference a change in QB can make for a team. Brockport certainly is rolling and believing in themselves, as they should. Cortland, well they are the Cortland we have been getting used to as of late. They have a very potent offense but have struggled to win the/a big game. Some could argue defeating Utica last year was a big win and I'd certainly listen. Yet, aside from that, they have simply not risen to the occasion. I think tomorrow is huge for them and will dictate what they do moving forward. I say if they win tomorrow, they will also win Cortaca and AT LEAST one playoff game.

The Whitworth/Linfield matchup intrigues me as well, at least on paper, but in the end I think Linfield runs over them next week. After watching the JHU/Mules game last week I am confident they will win out taking F&M to the woodshed. The Carnegie Mellon/Case game also looks good. I can see Case giving them a run with two very close losses to a solid Grove City and W&J teams.

Well at the very least it's exciting Utah and we'll see how it all shakes out. Wishing everyone a great Friday.

[Ice Bear]

My weekly picks 

Ithaca @ SLU - Since a W against Castleton the Saints have lived in the doldrums. They continue living there maybe crawling even deeper in the hole. Plus, IC has a ton to play for and prepare for in next week's Cortaca game. People have also been saying their Freshman QB, while young and still having a lot to learn, has elevated their passing game. IC uses tomorrow as almost a practice to help create their game plan for next week. IC wins 35-0

Union @ Buffalo State -  After a very embarrassing loss to IC, IMHO only, and then a huge bounce back statement type win over Hobart, Union finds itself relevant again. I think they'll win comfortably here but it will be very hard for them to not look ahead to RPI next week. This might not be the prettiest performance by Union but their running game simply won't allow this game to be too close. Union 28-10

RPI @ Hobart -  Just another reason why I absolutely love our league, to the point where I have even dropped all former (ok, not all) animosity towards RPI and have come to really respect   and value the Hobart, Ithaca, and RPI football programs. Another big game and it's taking place in Geneva. I believe at RPI, the Engineers would win this game by 10 points or more. They may do the same here but it will be a lot harder as Hobart plays for Statesmen pride and an opportunity to finish 8-2 (the Statesmen will defeat U of R next week if they win tomorrow). I feel like Hobart has to do a lot more right here than RPI to win. RPI won't be looking ahead to next week here and Ralph will bring a focused team to Western New York tomorrow. RPI's run game and Colombi's inconsistency will be the difference. RPI 17-10

[unionpalooza]

One thought - in a 40-team tournament, the at-large bids would be something like:

UWW, St. John's, UWL/UWRF loser, Wheaton, Coe, JCU, Bethel, Bridgewater, the Union/RPI winner, Muhlenberg, and Brockport.

We're missing out on some serious fun.

[unionpalooza]

Today's Rossi/Baker podcast has an interesting tidbit - apparently the NCAA's stated reason for only ranking 7 teams per region (rather than 20% per region, the old rule, which would idle 9 for R2) is because the RAC calls were taking too long. 

That is absolute garbage horsesh*t, and whoever made that decision on that basis should shampoo my crotch.

2,500 kids bust their butt all season long, and the coaches who sit on the RACs (none of whom are forced at gunpoint, remind you) can't be bothered to spend an extra hour on the phone to fairly figure out who makes the playoffs?  The remarkable disdain and disrespect that the NCAA D3 infrastructure shows for the kids who play the game is pretty remarkable.  There's nothing worse than having power for no good reason, and wielding it poorly.

Ha yea, at first I thought the rankings don't mean much anyway with two weeks to go but then I just thought how silly it was for them to not simply come up with a list. 

Anyway I took a little dive and did some reading into the possible pool C bids for everyone.  Let me see if I have this straight.

-There are 4 pool C spots in the country.
 
-Barring huge upsets, two of those spots are going to a WIAC team and Wheaton.  Mt. Union losing to JCU would put Mt. Union there, but JCU goes down with the pack if they lose to Mt. Union imo.

-After that you have:
1. Muhlenberg
2. Cortland/Brockport loser
3. Union/RPI winner (#2 and #3 here will depend a lot on how Ithaca does against Cortland, and RPI still has to get by Hobart)
4. Carnegie Mellon
5. Coe
then some teams I know nothing about:
6. Bellhaven
7. Depaw if they lose to Wabash

-Whitworth could beat Linfield, that would add Linfield to the secondary list I would say.

-MIAC?  I have no idea what those goofy bastards are doing with their conference championship.

-Does the WIAC get a 3rd team?  I'd say UW-Lacrosse losing to Hardin Simmons, the team that got shackled by Endicott tells me know, they don't get the benefit of the doubt.  Huge win for the east that ended up being for Endicott.

-I think you have to give some teams some credit for scheduling tough OCC games.  Wisconsin Whitewater?  They played JCU, St. Johns and MHB.  UWL played Hardin Simmons and two division 2 teams.  UMB played Trinity, UWW and UWRF.  In the east Endicott and Ithaca raised the bar this year as well. 

Anyway I'm probably missing something big but it seems upon first glance Union and RPI have an uphill battle.

EDIT:  I posted this but made a major mistake, so have fixed it and reposted!

Here's how I break it down.

Of the 4 Pool C bids, UWW is an absolute lock, so that leaves three.

The menu looks as follows (all hypothetical, of course, since there are games to be played, and I am making best guesses as to where SOS will land after those games).

Region 1 - No candidates.

Region 2 - lots of candidates.

Team / Record / SOS / RR Wins         

Union / 9-1 / .560ish / 1 RR win over Springfield
RPI  / 9-1 / .550ish / No RR wins
Muhlenberg / 9-1 / .550ish / No RR wins
Carnegie MU / 9-1 / .500ish / No RR wins
Cortland / 8-2 / .620ish / RR over Ithaca (*assumes Cortland loses to Brockport but beats Ithaca)
Cortland / 7-3 / .620ish / No RR wins (*assumes Cortland loses to both Brockport and Ithaca)
Brockport / 8-2 / .540ish / No RR wins (*assumes Brockport loses to Cortland)

Assuming Cortland beats Brockport, I think Union is the best candidate for R2 per the primary criteria, given equal winning percentages, equal or higher SOS, and a regionally ranked win that no other R2 team would have.  I suspect an 8-2 Cortland team (losing to Brockport but beating Ithaca) probably gets ranked ahead of a 9-1 Union given the much higher SOS, equal number of regionally ranked wins, and the secondary criteria (win over Ithaca who won over Union).

Region 3 - a few candidates.

Berry / 9-1 / .450ish / No RR wins
Bridgewater / 8-2 / .590ish / No RR wins (*assumes no RR wins because W&L drops out of R3 rankings after Bridgewater beats them)

I don't see any way Berry is Pool C competitive under the criteria.  Bridgewater is the best Pool C team with a 8-2 record but high SOS, albeit no RR wins.

Region 4 - a few candidates.

Mt. Union / 9-1 / .500ish / 1 RR win over Marietta (*assumes loss to JCU)
JCU / 8-2 / .560ish / 1 RR win over Marietta (*assumes lost to Mt. Union)

Mt. Union probably gets a Pool C bid although, on the merits of the primary criteria, I don't see any way they'd deserve too.  (Note that while the committee can take prior playoff success into account, they can only do so when comparing two undefeated teams.)

Region 5 - a few strong candidates.

Wheaton / 9-1 / .540ish SOS / No RR wins (*assumes Augustana drops out of R5 rankings after losing to North Central)
Coe / 9-1 / .520ish SIS / No RR wins (*assumes Augustana drops out of R5 rankings after losing to North Central)

These are two strong candidates that are somewhat hamstrung by a lack of RR wins and a good but not great SOS.  If Augustana stays ranked, they look more like a Union candidacy - 9-1 with a decent SOS and a RRW.

Region 6 - the gauntlet.

UWW - LOCKED
UW-LaCrosse / 7-1 / .650ish / 2 RR wins over UWW and UWRF (*assumes win over UWL)
UW-RF / 9-1 / .590ish / RR win over UWL (*assumes win over UWL)
UW-La Crosse / 6-2 / .650ish / 1 RR over UWW (*assumes loss to UWRF)
UW-RF / 8-2 / .590ish / No RR wins (*assumes loss to UW-La Cross)
St. John's / 8-2 / .670ish /  Two RR wins over Trinity and Bethel
Bethel / 8-2 / .610ish / No RR wins
Linfield/Whitworth loser / 9-1 / .500ish / No RR wins

A lot here depends on who wins the UWL/UWRF game.  In any case I think St. John's is the strongest team (after UWW) here, followed by UWL if the lose to UWRF, Bethel, and UWRF is the lose to UW L.

Putting all of that together, the candidates something like this, in my general sense of how they ought to be rank-ordered based on the primary criteria:

Locks

UWW
St. John's (8-2 / .670 / 2 RRWs)
Losing UW La Crosse (6-2 / .650 / 1 RRW)

Unlikely to Be There

Cortland (8-2 / .620 / 1 RRW)
Mt. Union (9-1 / .500 / 1 RRW)

The 9-1 Cluster with Decent SOS

Union (9-1 / .560 / 1 RRW)
RPI  (9-1 / .550 / 0 RRW)
Muhlenberg (9-1 / .550 / 0 RRW)
Wheaton (9-1 / .540 / 0 RRW)
Coe (9-1 / .520 / 0 RRW)

The 8-2 Cluster with Strong SOS and/or RRWs

JCU (8-2 / .550 / 1 RRW)
Bethel (8-2 / .610 / 0 RRW)
Bridgewater (8-2 / .590 / 0 RRW)
Losing UWRF (8-2 / .590 / 0 RRW)

The Rest

Carnegie Mellon  (9-1 / .500ish / 0 RRW)
Berry (9-1 / .450 / 0 RRW)

There are two big contingencies here - (i) who wins the UWL/UWRF game, and (ii) whether we get unlikely Mt. Union or Cortland Pool C candidates.

I think the first two teams off the Board, no matter what, will come from Region 6: UWW and St. John's.  So all we are debating is who gets the last two spots.

If UWRF beat UWL, I think an 8-2 UWL probably gets the third spot.

If UWL beats UWRF, I think by the primary criteria Union is next off the Board, assuming there is no Mt. Union or Cortland to compete with and the committee doesn't superweight SOS or largely ignore RRWs.  (I don't think Mt. Union would actually have the better case if they're there, but I don't think the NCAA would care.)

After that you have a bunch of 9-1 teams with medium SOS but no RRWs (RPI, Muhlenberg, Wheaton and Coe) which you'd have to compare with some 8-2 teams with higher SOS (Bethel, Bridgewater, and a losing UWRF) and, in the case of JCU, a RRW.  Then a final cluster of 9-1 teams with medium-to-low SOS and no RRWs.  If the committee privileges WP, then it probably comes down to a 9-1 RPI, Muhlenberg and/or Wheaton.  If it privileges SOS or RRWs, then it's probably Bethel and/or JCU.

How you rank order everyone from Union on down really comes down to how much emphasis the committee places on winning percentage v. SOS v. RRWs.  The initial RRs seem to suggest pretty high emphasis on SOS, which would bode well for some of the 8-2 teams relative to the 9-1 teams.  (Most of these differences in SOS are not that statistically significant - the difference in .040 points of SOS is swapping a single 3-7 team on the schedule with a 7-3 team.)  I wouldn't think that would be enough to rate a two loss team over a one loss team, but the initial ratings suggest that might be what they do, in which case an 8-2 Bethel, Bridgewater, losing UWRF and JCU might snag the third and/forth spot over a 9-1 Union, RPI, Muhlenberg, Wheaton, or Coe.  Or maybe it splits the baby and privileges RRWs, going with a 9-1 Union and an 8-2 JCU.

This is all obviously super-hypothetical - for example there will either be a 9-1 Union or a 9-1 RPI, never both.

And I'm sure I missed something (e.g., a RRW) that totally screws this all up.

And with all that said, things I don't know:  what final SOS will actually look like; who might sneak into the bottom of the R6 rankings after the Linfield/Whitworth loser drops out and how that might affect RRWs for Wheaton and the R6 candidates; whether the committee will actually follow its own criteria.

[Machiavelli]

Today's Rossi/Baker podcast has an interesting tidbit - apparently the NCAA's stated reason for only ranking 7 teams per region (rather than 20% per region, the old rule, which would idle 9 for R2) is because the RAC calls were taking too long. 

That is absolute garbage horsesh*t, and whoever made that decision on that basis should shampoo my crotch.

2,500 kids bust their butt all season long, and the coaches who sit on the RACs (none of whom are forced at gunpoint, remind you) can't be bothered to spend an extra hour on the phone to fairly figure out who makes the playoffs?  The remarkable disdain and disrespect that the NCAA D3 infrastructure shows for the kids who play the game is pretty remarkable.  There's nothing worse than having power for no good reason, and wielding it poorly.

Ha yea, at first I thought the rankings don't mean much anyway with two weeks to go but then I just thought how silly it was for them to not simply come up with a list. 

Anyway I took a little dive and did some reading into the possible pool C bids for everyone.  Let me see if I have this straight.

-There are 4 pool C spots in the country.
 
-Barring huge upsets, two of those spots are going to a WIAC team and Wheaton.  Mt. Union losing to JCU would put Mt. Union there, but JCU goes down with the pack if they lose to Mt. Union imo.

-After that you have:
1. Muhlenberg
2. Cortland/Brockport loser
3. Union/RPI winner (#2 and #3 here will depend a lot on how Ithaca does against Cortland, and RPI still has to get by Hobart)
4. Carnegie Mellon
5. Coe
then some teams I know nothing about:
6. Bellhaven
7. Depaw if they lose to Wabash

-Whitworth could beat Linfield, that would add Linfield to the secondary list I would say.

-MIAC?  I have no idea what those goofy bastards are doing with their conference championship.

-Does the WIAC get a 3rd team?  I'd say UW-Lacrosse losing to Hardin Simmons, the team that got shackled by Endicott tells me know, they don't get the benefit of the doubt.  Huge win for the east that ended up being for Endicott.

-I think you have to give some teams some credit for scheduling tough OCC games.  Wisconsin Whitewater?  They played JCU, St. Johns and MHB.  UWL played Hardin Simmons and two division 2 teams.  UMB played Trinity, UWW and UWRF.  In the east Endicott and Ithaca raised the bar this year as well. 

Anyway I'm probably missing something big but it seems upon first glance Union and RPI have an uphill battle.

I think this is pretty spot on, though I think 2 and 3 should be flipped for sure, and maybe Carnegie Melon even ahead of the Brockport Cortland loser.

If Brockport loses to Cortland, they should be out. Would have 2 losses against quality teams, but no really impressive wins. The LL should be routing for Cortland this week, and then for Ithaca beat Cortland.

If RPI can win this week, a 9-1 RPI or Union would have victories over each other, Hobart, Rochester, and then OOC wins over Springfield/Dickinson. If the Dicks were to beat Johnny Hopkins, that could be HUGE for RPI too, but it doesn't feel like a requirement to me.

Obviously Mt. Union losing to John Carrol would really throw a huge wrinkle because, on paper, Mt. Union shouldn't be in the running in that scenario, but we all know how that goes.

We should have a much better feel for things by Saterday night. Carnegie Melon is certainly an interesting case, but their SOS is softer than puppy sh!t. Muhlenburg is interesting as well and are currently just in front of RPI on the SOS list, but I assume RPI will jump them over the next 2 weeks and Union is already there. If Hopkins loses, I don't have enough energy to look at how that conference shakes out, but it makes Muhlenburg's loss to Hopkins less impressive and RPI's win over the Dicks more impressive.

Just a lot of what ifs heading into this week. Kind of fun.

[unionpalooza]

PS - If there's anything I hope the LL teams learn this year, it's that you have to replace one of the craptastic 1-9 teams on your nonconference schedule wtih a mediocre 5-5 team.  (Obv Ithaca already knows this.). It's the difference between a .560 SOS and a .600 SOS, which might end up being the Pool C margin of error between a 9-1 team and an 8-2 team this year.

[Machiavelli]

Come on, everyone loves playing Dilbert!

[UfanBill]

PS - If there's anything I hope the LL teams learn this year, it's that you have to replace one of the craptastic 1-9 teams on your nonconference schedule wtih a mediocre 5-5 team.  (Obv Ithaca already knows this.). It's the difference between a .560 SOS and a .600 SOS, which might end up being the Pool C margin of error between a 9-1 team and an 8-2 team this year.

The crappiest of the craptastic is obviously Hilbert. Next year they become a SOS problem for Cortland, Brockport and the rest of the E8 as they become an E8 member.  Since the E8 has a scheduling agreement with the Landmark at least one of those schools will be on Hilbert's 2024 schedule. Does that leave a spot to complete a home & home with this year's LL opponents Union and Hobart? I think not so I'd look for the only LL team to play Hilbert next year as local rival Buffalo St...Hopefully.