FB: Liberty League

[unionpalooza]

Some belated thoughts on the Shoes game - an incredibly entertaining, hard fought game that ended with a great Union win.

After faltering downs the stretch last year and at Ithaca this year, it was awesome to see Union finally be the more disciplined, focused team.  Union ended up +3 on turnovers, made fewer costly penalties, and made two of three FGs, and that was the difference.  I felt Union really won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and indeed I think Union might have put some more points on the board if they had more fully committed to the run, and earlier.  (A recurring theme this year.). RPI gave up any pretense of trying to run the ball early, and the d-line got to pin their ears back and chase the QB the entire second half. 

I would have really liked to see Union get on track in the passing game, as I think they'll have to do that to win any playoff games, but a nice win nonetheless.

McCormick was a total stud for RPI - he reminded me a lot of young Wingfield but with a more accurate arm downfield.  When he had time he picked the Union secondary apart, and made a lot of nice plays with his feet to extend drives (and pick up RPI's only TD).  He threw a couple of tough picks, but he was harassed on most plays and took a lot of heavy hits.  Head and shoulders above Kazanowsky, if you ask me.  I suspect he'll be torching LL defenses for the next three years, especially if RPI can upgrade their OL and protect him.

[Pat Coleman]

- Ejecting one of our best defenders on a non existent targeting call isn't very nice. Tough for the team and brutal for the student. Maybe best not to have those sorts of outcomes without the benefit of clear targeting on replay?  That hurt.

Of course video did exist...Did the "targeting" call happen in the first half? I believe the NCAA allows and actually encourages officials to review video of such calls when available during halftime. I remember a few years ago(2019?) a particular hard hitting safety from Union was ejected for targeting in the first half and the call was reversed at halftime. He was allowed to re-enter the game. Maybe the Ithaca coaching staff has to request it and of course the officials would have to cooperate. Apparently you have no ides if it was looked at?

It was the 3rd quarter and can only assume they weren't allowed to review it because this had a 100% chance of being overturned.

Correct that there is no opportunity to review during play. It can be reviewed this week and his eligibility can be restored for the playoff opener, however.

[unionpalooza]

And now a few thoughts on the playoffs.

I'm now feeling pretty confident that Union is in for Pool C.  UWW and St. John's will clearly get bids, and it comes down to two of three:  Union, Wheaton and Hope.   Hope is 8-2 but the best SOS. Union and Wheaton are 9-1, with Union having a better SOS.  All three have a ranked win.  I think it's possible the committee rewards SOS, but in that case it's Hope and Union.  If the reward winning percentage, it's Wheaton and Union.  Personally, like Pat C, I think Union and Wheaton will be the last two picks.

In terms of #1 seeds, I take a slightly different view that the D3F projected bracket, which I think is maybe giving brand names and the eye test a bit more credit than the committee can or will. I think JHU is absolutely a #1 seed.  They have a better record vRRO and basically the same SOS as UW-Lacrosse, and are 10-0 rather than 8-1.  Looking just at the criteria, I think your #1 seeds are NCC, Mt. Union, Wartburg, and JHU, and the #2 seeds are Susquehanna, UWL, UWW, and Cortland.  (On the numbers, Cortland actually stacks up well against UWL and UWW - basically identical in terms of winning percentage, SOS, and record vRROs.). You've got a cluster of 10-0 teams with very poor SOS - Alma, DePauw, Randolph Macon, Grove City, and Aurora, none of whom have more than 1 ranked win.  I think they all end up 3, 4, or 5 seeds, as do a few  9-1 teams with good SOS an a ranked win or two (Springfield, Endicott) and maybe Ithaca and Hope as 8-2 teams with great SOS.  Then a long cluster of 9-1 teams (Union, Wheaton, Trinity, HSU, etc.) that I could see landing anywhere from 4-6.

In terms of placement, there are 12 R1/2 teams, including a 1 seed and probably two 2 seeds.  There are four more in R3.  Collectively, that group of 16 needs to be sorted into two full bracket equivalents, with the most likely solution being an all R2/3 bracket of 8 teams, and then sending four into a NCC/Wartburg  bracket and four into a Mt. Union bracket.   There are lots of ways to do that, and to me the main choice is whether you build an 8-team JHU bracket around southern and PA teams, or around NY/New England teams and put the southern and PA teams into Midwest brackets. 

However that sorts, I think it's probably pretty likely that Union plays at Cortland or Endicott, and Ithaca probably plays at Springfield, especially since first round rematches are such a problem (Union/Springfield/Ithaca, Ithaca/Endicott/Cortland, etc.).  Might be a variation where you through Grove City or Del Valley in for either team.

(FWIW, on the criteria amongst that group of teams, I would grade Cortland a 2/3 seed, Springfield a 3 seed, Ithaca a 4, Endicott a 5, Grove City a 5, and Union and Del Val a 6.) 

EDIT:  PS - I think the D3F bracket is way underrating Endicott, treating them as a 7 seed. On criteria, they are actually the fourth best one-loss team in the field after UWW, UWL, and Cortland.

[Pat Coleman]

And now a few thoughts on the playoffs.

I'm now feeling pretty confident that Union is in for Pool C.  UWW and St. John's will clearly get bids, and it comes down to two of three:  Union, Wheaton and Hope.   Hope is 8-2 but the best SOS. Union and Wheaton are 9-1, with Union having a better SOS.  All three have a ranked win.  I think it's possible the committee rewards SOS, but in that case it's Hope and Union.  If the reward winning percentage, it's Wheaton and Union.  Personally, like Pat C, I think Union and Wheaton will be the last two picks.

In terms of #1 seeds, I take a different view that the D3F projected bracket, which I think is giving brand names and the look test a bit more credit than the committee can or will. I think JHU is absolutely a #1 seed.  They have a better record vRRO and basically the same SOS as UW-Lacrosse, and are 10-0 rather than 8-1.  Looking just at the criteria, I think your #1 seeds are NCC, Mt. Union, Wartburg, and JHU, and the #2 seeds are Susquehanna, UWL, UWW, and Cortland.  (On the numbers, Cortland actually stacks up well against UWL and UWW - basically identical in terms of winning percentage, SOS, and record vRROs.). You've got a cluster of 10-0 teams with very poor SOS - Alma, DePauw, Randolph Macon, Grove City, and Aurora, none of whom have more than 1 ranked win.  I think they all end up 3, 4, or 5 seeds, as do a few  9-1 teams with good SOS an a ranked win or two (Springfield, Endicott) and maybe Ithaca and Hope as 8-2 teams with great SOS.  Then a long cluster of 9-1 teams (Union, Wheaton, Trinity, HSU, etc.) that I could see landing anywhere from 4-6.

In terms of placement, there are 12 R1/2 teams, including a 1 seed and probably two 2 seeds.  There are four more in R3.  Collectively, that group of 16 needs to be sorted into two full bracket equivalents, with the most likely solution being an all R2/3 bracket of 8 teams, and then sending four into a NCC/Wartburg  bracket and four into a Mt. Union bracket.   There are lots of ways to that, and to me the main choice is whether you build an 8-team JHU bracket around southern and PA teams, or around NY/New England teams and put the southern and PA teams into Midwest brackets. 

However that sorts, I think's probably pretty likely that Union plays at Cortland or Endicott, and Ithaca probably plays at Springfield, especially since first round rematches are such a problem (Union/Springfield/Ithaca, Ithaca/Endicott/Cortland, etc.).  Might be a variation where you through Grove City or Del Valley in for either team.

(FWIW, on the criteria amongst that group of teams, I would grade Cortland a 2/3 seed, Springfield a 3 seed, Ithaca a 4, Endicott a 5, Grove City a 5, and Union and Del Val a 6.)

Definitely pondered JHU vs. Mount Union for quite some time last night. Just don't think the committee will put JHU ahead when Mount Union is coming off a Stagg Bowl appearance. It's different than last year.

And yes, JHU is 2-0 vs. La Crosse being 2-1. That's a difference but not a huge one.

[unionpalooza]

And now a few thoughts on the playoffs.

I'm now feeling pretty confident that Union is in for Pool C.  UWW and St. John's will clearly get bids, and it comes down to two of three:  Union, Wheaton and Hope.   Hope is 8-2 but the best SOS. Union and Wheaton are 9-1, with Union having a better SOS.  All three have a ranked win.  I think it's possible the committee rewards SOS, but in that case it's Hope and Union.  If the reward winning percentage, it's Wheaton and Union.  Personally, like Pat C, I think Union and Wheaton will be the last two picks.

In terms of #1 seeds, I take a different view that the D3F projected bracket, which I think is giving brand names and the look test a bit more credit than the committee can or will. I think JHU is absolutely a #1 seed.  They have a better record vRRO and basically the same SOS as UW-Lacrosse, and are 10-0 rather than 8-1.  Looking just at the criteria, I think your #1 seeds are NCC, Mt. Union, Wartburg, and JHU, and the #2 seeds are Susquehanna, UWL, UWW, and Cortland.  (On the numbers, Cortland actually stacks up well against UWL and UWW - basically identical in terms of winning percentage, SOS, and record vRROs.). You've got a cluster of 10-0 teams with very poor SOS - Alma, DePauw, Randolph Macon, Grove City, and Aurora, none of whom have more than 1 ranked win.  I think they all end up 3, 4, or 5 seeds, as do a few  9-1 teams with good SOS an a ranked win or two (Springfield, Endicott) and maybe Ithaca and Hope as 8-2 teams with great SOS.  Then a long cluster of 9-1 teams (Union, Wheaton, Trinity, HSU, etc.) that I could see landing anywhere from 4-6.

In terms of placement, there are 12 R1/2 teams, including a 1 seed and probably two 2 seeds.  There are four more in R3.  Collectively, that group of 16 needs to be sorted into two full bracket equivalents, with the most likely solution being an all R2/3 bracket of 8 teams, and then sending four into a NCC/Wartburg  bracket and four into a Mt. Union bracket.   There are lots of ways to that, and to me the main choice is whether you build an 8-team JHU bracket around southern and PA teams, or around NY/New England teams and put the southern and PA teams into Midwest brackets. 

However that sorts, I think's probably pretty likely that Union plays at Cortland or Endicott, and Ithaca probably plays at Springfield, especially since first round rematches are such a problem (Union/Springfield/Ithaca, Ithaca/Endicott/Cortland, etc.).  Might be a variation where you through Grove City or Del Valley in for either team.

(FWIW, on the criteria amongst that group of teams, I would grade Cortland a 2/3 seed, Springfield a 3 seed, Ithaca a 4, Endicott a 5, Grove City a 5, and Union and Del Val a 6.)

Definitely pondered JHU vs. Mount Union for quite some time last night. Just don't think the committee will put JHU ahead when Mount Union is coming off a Stagg Bowl appearance. It's different than last year.

And yes, JHU is 2-0 vs. La Crosse being 2-1. That's a difference but not a huge one.

Totally agree on JHU v. Mt. Union - they are both undefeated and I think last year's playoff experience gives them the nod.

JHU v. UWL is where I differed.  SOS and record vRRO are basically the same, but JHU's winning percentage is 1.00, and UWL's is .875.  I just see no way on the criteria one can put them ahead of JHU.

EDIT:  Also, just to be 100% clear, I am NOT trying to be critical of the d3F projection, which an impossible task; just offering another view.  You guys do an insane amount of good work in the runup to the process, and to the extent that I have any understanding of the criteria and an ability to offer an informed view, it's 100% because of the work you (and Logan) do.

[UfanBill]

Eagerly awaiting the Bracket reveal. I'm wondering if this is the year we'll finally see a Union vs Mt. Union match-up? Likely in a second round game. I'd be OK with that.. First things first, get their name called.

LET'S GO U

[Jonny Utah]

Hmmm Cortland got the raw deal?!?!  Union and IC making out ok imo. 

[Bartman]

Congratulations to Union for making the dance. Both Union and Ithaca have winnable first round games even if they are on the road. Surprised that Cortland did not get a home game. Good luck to everyone in the NCAA tournament .
Hoping Hobart and RPI get decent ECAC games when selections come out tomorrow.

[UfanBill]

I'm Very Happy ...A road trip to Doylestown, PA. is a good outcome for the Garnet. It's been quite a weekend for me, First the Shoes victory then my NFL team the Browns(yeah I know) pull off a miracle win now this. Lots of smiles here.   

[tecmobowler]

Unkind to send Cortland on the road. I know at least one common opponent they had with Endicott...

Here's to a Union/Bombers dream rematch at Butterfield in three weeks time. What fun that would be!

[Jonny Utah]

Unkind to send Cortland on the road. I know at least one common opponent they had with Endicott...

Here's to a Union/Bombers dream rematch at Butterfield in three weeks time. What fun that would be!

I don't want to play Union again F that.

[UfanBill]

Unkind to send Cortland on the road. I know at least one common opponent they had with Endicott...

Here's to a Union/Bombers dream rematch at Butterfield in three weeks time. What fun that would be!

Cortland may well get a chance to avenge it's only loss too, Susquehanna.

[unionpalooza]

Man, that is a wild bracket.  I'm super happy for Union, because Del Valley will make for a great, entertaining first round match JPM with a chance to move on and take on Hopkins.  I also feel like Ithaca also got a good, interesting path at Springfield and then likely Randolph Macon.

Cortland, who on the selection criteria is probably the seventh or eighth best team in the field, gets absolutely hosed traveling to Endicott.

As for the bracket altogether... woof.  The committee clearly rewarded winning percentage over all else, giving the Pool C bids to 9-1 UWW, Union, Wheaton and Coe and leaving 8-2 St. John's and Hope out.  I mean, that's fine as a logic, but it is just dumb that we don't know at what point a better SOS overcomes an extra loss.  My hunch is that the Committee just didn't want to take the heat for making a call as to when an 8-2 team with better SOS trumps a 9-1 team, and just decided they'd stick to 9-1 teams.

And then the Committee clearly throws out the thinking by which Pool C teams were determined and reverts to a simplistic "what number were you ranked in your region" process to seed teams.  UWL gets a 1 seed over North Central accordingly.  Cortland (who has to be, what, a #3 in R2) gets sent TO Endicott simply because Endicott is a R1 #2, even though on a comparison basis, Cortland is better under the selection criteria, full stop.

They should just create a mathematical formula for WP/SOS/WvRRO and announce it, so people can actually know in advance.  Or go back to regional brackets and focus on getting those right.

[Ice Bear]

I could not be happier with Union getting matched up against Del Val. This is certainly no gimmie, and maybe Union is the underdog, but I think we all know this Aggie team is not the typical Aggie team and Union certainly has a chance to get a round 1 win on the road. I have a ton of respect for Del Val and know this will be a tough game.

Ithaca also gets a nice draw in Springfield. We all know the Pride and the quirkiness of their offense. However I think the IC defense is one that will really box in the Pride, minus one or two big plays. I also think Schumm's experience during Cortaca matched with the IC running game will be enough to get the Pride playing from behind. Never sleep on Springfield though.

Cortland gets a perceived tough draw in hitting the road to Endicott. With that said, I think Cortland is really good and will roll this very solid Gulls team. I believe it's actually Endicott who received the tough draw, if that makes sense.

Quote of the day, and rightfully so. Frank Rossi asks Committee Chair point blank in reference to the bracket, "How the hell is Coe on there?" SJU and Muhlenburg had that exact same thought in mind.

[UfanBill]

Man, that is a wild bracket.  I'm super happy for Union, because Del Valley will make for a great, entertaining first round match JPM with a chance to move on and take on Hopkins.  I also feel like Ithaca also got a good, interesting path at Springfield and then likely Randolph Macon.

Cortland, who on the selection criteria is probably the seventh or eighth best team in the field, gets absolutely hosed traveling to Endicott.

As for the bracket altogether... woof.  The committee clearly rewarded winning percentage over all else, giving the Pool C bids to 9-1 UWW, Union, Wheaton and Coe and leaving 8-2 St. John's and Hope out.  I mean, that's fine as a logic, but it is just dumb that we don't know at what point a better SOS overcomes an extra loss.  My hunch is that the Committee just didn't want to take the heat for making a call as to when an 8-2 team with better SOS trumps a 9-1 team, and just decided they'd stick to 9-1 teams.

And then the Committee clearly throws out the thinking by which Pool C teams were determined and reverts to a simplistic "what number were you ranked in your region" process to seed teams.  UWL gets a 1 seed over North Central accordingly.  Cortland (who has to be, what, a #3 in R2) gets sent TO Endicott simply because Endicott is a R1 #2, even though on a comparison basis, Cortland is better under the selection criteria, full stop.

They should just create a mathematical formula for WP/SOS/WvRRO and announce it, so people can actually know in advance.  Or go back to regional brackets and focus on getting those right.

I agree with all that you're saying. Listening to an In the D3FB Huddle podcast just after the selection show https://www.facebook.com/watch/?extid=CL-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&mibextid=uKtFVW&v=1054936095515936 ...Frank Rossi and James Baker had the national selection committee chair, Matt Moore HC of Northwestern(Minn) as a guest and he alluded to something thats in the works, possibly soon, an enlargement of the tourney field. That would alleviate some of the complaints. Especially if the criteria was redefined as well. They also questioned him as to why Coe was selected over St. John's and Muhlenberg. He had no convincing answer.