FB: Liberty League

[Stlarry]

Anybody else out there excited about what should be a fun game to watch at the Boz in 2 weeks.  A most likely 7-0 Alfred team against Hobart, who should be 5-2, and has outscored its last 3 "opponents" 141 to 57.  Can you say Boise State - Nevada? 

Pep is most excited about the game at the Boz in two weeks...Hobart has had AU's number in recent years, yet always close games. But first things first, Husson, while a young program, is no slouch. Saxons need to make a clean sweep of Merrill Field before they head to the Boz.

This Alfred game is pretty much Bart's season.  If they win, NCAAs are possible.  If they lose, it's just playing for pride (vs. Union and Rocho) and an ECAC game.

But like Pep says - first things first.  Coach Phelps is bringing the Larries into town and although Bart has won 15 straight, SLU will be gunning for the Statesmen.  Bart needs to avoid looking ahead to the Alfred game and focus on the Saints.

The last few years, the Larries have played 'Bart tough for most of the game, but always seem to fall apart late.  SLU has not done a very good job late in the game this year, so it may be close early, but doubtful the final score will be too tight.

[redswarm81]

Holy Crap!

Redswarm is posting in the LLPP!!!

In the Division III Rivalries and ATN boards as well.  Joe Bob says "check 'em out."

[SJFF82]

Frank in your opinion, which east teams have the best shots at making pool c if they end with two losses

This is how I would rank the East Region teams' chances, should these teams end up at two losses.  This is not a power ranking order – it only takes into account what I think the order of preference would be should these teams lose two games.  This is why undefeated teams are so low on the list – two late losses, especially depending on the remaining schedules for those teams, would prove extremely detrimental to their causes.  I group the NJAC teams together purposely; I think the NJAC is almost guaranteed a Pool C slot if at least one of those teams has two losses (based on remaining schedules, there cannot be two teams with one loss in the NJAC except for TCNJ and Montclair, who have played each other already).  The ** means that since the team is in control of its own destiny for the Pool A slot, then they would have three losses if they were eliminated from Pool A contention.  Thus, there is no way for Pool C consideration for those teams as they'll have three losses in that scenario.

1.    SJF            6-1 / 2-1     A loss to Springfield or Alfred may be forgiven, especially if Hartwick stays afloat in the E8 standings.  Last year's playoff performance will not be discounted by committee.

2t.   Cortland St.   5-1 / 4-0     Brockport was the first loss.  A second loss to Rowan, TCNJ, Montclair or Ithaca forgivable as schedule is about the toughest in D3 East this year.

2t.   New Jersey     5-1 / 3-0     Win against Rowan proves potent.  Loss to Muhlenberg is understandable after Mules have ripped every opponent.  Second loss would need to be against a great team (namely, Cortland)

2t.   Rowan          4-2 / 2-1     The Christopher Newport and TCNJ losses could be forgiven if those two teams continue to produce W's.  Rowan would need to play strong against Cortland and Montclair for even a whisper of a chance.

2t.   Montclair      5-1 / 2-1     Loss was to TCNJ, so it would need to hope that TCNJ slips to three losses and would need to lose to either Cortland or Rowan in this scenario.

6.    Wesley         6-1 / 2-0     Pool B – Loss was to Montclair.  Another loss against Salisbury could be forgiven.

7.    Albright       5-1 / 3-0     Loss was to Salisbury.  As long as second loss is to Widener, Albright stands decent shot at two losses.

8.    Alfred         6-0 / 4-0     If losses are to Hobart and SJF, then this is feasible.

9.    Hobart         4-2 / 3-1     A win against Alfred would be key, as losses to RPI and Dickinson (combined one loss) would be easily forgiven.  However, the LL seems to be lacking the respect factor this season.

10.   Hartwick       4-2 / 2-1     Loss to Western New England may be forgivable, but running the table won't be easy, if they are able to, then sure, they'll be considered.

11.   Ithaca         4-2 / 1-2     The Hartwick loss is confusing still, especially if Hartwick slips.  With its remaining schedule including Cortland, Alfred and Springfield, Ithaca could still play its way into Pool C.

12.   Salisbury      7-0 / 2-0     Pool B – Two losses would mean a loss to either/both Becker and/or Frostburg St., both poor-record teams this year.  Unlikely to win slot at two losses.

13.   RPI            5-0 / 3-0     Doubtful that a two-loss (7-2) RPI team would gain entry as two losses would be late in season and non-conference resume is poor.

14.   WPI            4-2 / 1-2     Losses to Union and Hobart don't help matters.  It's pretty unlikely WPI gets a second look in Pool C.

15.   Husson         5-2 / 0-0     Pool B – Would need to beat Alfred this week to receive any consideration.  While a dark horse, it's not likely based on location, lack of prior resume and independent status.

      Union          4-2 / 4-0     **

      Widener        4-2 / 3-0     **

Frank, thanks...great analysis.

Couple comments:  1.)  Re Rowan:  You mean they have to beat Cortland and Montclair, not just "play strong", because they already have their second loss...?
                                2.)  Re SJF:  Does the committee actually consider prior post-season performance or are you just assuming they do...and if so, I find that interesting.

                                 3.) Re IC:  I do not see the 'Wick loss as "confusing" in light of what 'Wick managed aginst Fisher.

+k

['gro]

Holy Crap!

Redswarm is posting in the LLPP!!!

In the Division III Rivalries and ATN boards as well.  Joe Bob says "check 'em out."

interesting story on the rivalry page... +k.  I believe RPI fans have also stolen "The Idol" from Union's campus in the past.

[Frank Rossi]

Holy Crap!

Redswarm is posting in the LLPP!!!

In the Division III Rivalries and ATN boards as well.  Joe Bob says "check 'em out."

interesting story on the rivalry page... +k.  I believe RPI has stolen "The Idol" from Union's campus in the past.

I don't think it was in its present location at the time.  I think it was in front of Science and Engineering prior to the Olin Center's existence.  I think when they placed it at its current location, they drove it into the ground pretty deep because of the slope of where it's located.  So, good luck to anyone that wants to try again.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank, thanks...great analysis.

Couple comments:  1.)  Re Rowan:  You mean they have to beat Cortland and Montclair, not just "play strong", because they already have their second loss...?
                                2.)  Re SJF:  Does the committee actually consider prior post-season performance or are you just assuming they do...and if so, I find that interesting.

                                 3.) Re IC:  I do not see the 'Wick loss as "confusing" in light of what 'Wick managed aginst Fisher.

+k

Thanks SJFF82. 

Regarding Rowan, I think you understood -- remember that since this assumes no more than two losses, Rowan would be required to beat both of those teams (and I believe make statements in those games). 

Regarding SJF, is it an official criterium?  No.  Is it a likely thing in the back of a committee member's mind?  Absolutely.  However, SJF would not supplant a team at one loss in this analysis.  This is something that would play a bigger role in a multi-way tie where statistics didn't help differentiate the teams being considered.  So, I'd say, based on history, this is an unofficial consideration only.

Regarding Ithaca, the E8 is completely confusing right now.  Do you really foresee Hartwick as winning out on their schedule?  I don't.  Their opening loss this year helps muddle the view of things.  If Hartwick DOES impress late, then you're right -- we can give Ithaca and SJF some forgiveness.  If not, though, then how do you measure those losses?  That's where the confusion will come from if this scenario is forced to play out in the next four weeks.

[res ipsa loquitur]

It is a fine analysis.  Although I do question whether Alfred should be ranked ahead of Hobart in the event Hobart beats them and runs the table, it would not surprise me.

[labart96]

K+ to Counselor Rossi for another great pre-play off break down.

Hobart write up on MMA game online as well as a brief interview/"press conference" with Coach Cragg available for download at the end of the release:

http://www.hws.edu/athletics/hobart/showrelease.asp?id=4099

[Rolevio]

Frank, Rolevio is trying to remember the criteria for Pool C consideration having to do with teams playing Out of Region teams.  particularly with Union having lost to Muhlenberg.  Rolevio seems to remember Out of region games being thrown out for seeding, but can;t remember about Pool C slots as they are compared nationally.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank, Rolevio is trying to remember the criteria for Pool C consideration having to do with teams playing Out of Region teams.  particularly with Union having lost to Muhlenberg.  Rolevio seems to remember Out of region games being thrown out for seeding, but can;t remember about Pool C slots as they are compared nationally.

It enters as the third and fourth criteria.  The first two criteria only focus on in-region games.  That's why I still feel comfortable suggesting that another loss by Union would take them out of Pool C consideration, since there are currently 89 teams with 0, 1 or 2 losses outside the NESCAC and NEFC.  There's just too much competition to really see Union from the LL get Pool C consideration at 6-3/6-2 in-region.

(Edit:  Looking at Union's schedule page, it appears the Muhlenberg is considered as an in-region game for Union.  I think the new criteria for that is whether or not the teams are within 400 miles of each other.  Pat, correct me on this.)

[Knightstalker]

Frank, Rolevio is trying to remember the criteria for Pool C consideration having to do with teams playing Out of Region teams.  particularly with Union having lost to Muhlenberg.  Rolevio seems to remember Out of region games being thrown out for seeding, but can;t remember about Pool C slots as they are compared nationally.

Does the 200 mile driving distance rule count in football also regarding whether or not a game is considered in region?  If so then the Union Muhlenberg game could be in region.

I just checked the schedule Pat has posted on the site and Muhlenberg was a regional game for Union.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank, Rolevio is trying to remember the criteria for Pool C consideration having to do with teams playing Out of Region teams.  particularly with Union having lost to Muhlenberg.  Rolevio seems to remember Out of region games being thrown out for seeding, but can;t remember about Pool C slots as they are compared nationally.

Does the 200 mile driving distance rule count in football also regarding whether or not a game is considered in region?  If so then the Union Muhlenberg game could be in region.

Wasn't sure if it was 200 or 400.  Google Maps says it is about 231 miles between the schools, but "as the crow flies" would be just 172 miles.  Google Maps may not be taking into consideration the SHORTEST route, which would be much more diagonal than the 231-mile route it is showing.

[Knightstalker]

It used to be based off Microsoft Streets and Trips but I am not sure if is still is.

['gro]

Gro believes that aside from the 200 mile radius there are multiple state regions as chosen by the NCAA, and NY-PA is one of them, mabe NY-PA-NJ??  Someone help me here.

also is it 200 or 400 miles?

[Knightstalker]

Gro, I believe you are right, they also now use the geographic regions to consider in region games.  Pat has the Union Muhlenberg game indicated as a regional game.  In Guru we trust.